Thursday how to avoid the 8th inning Discussion

Boxberger didn't pitch in like a week and then took the L last night and blew the save tonight, while Jake McGee went back home to get his knee checked out after tweaking it in the BS Tuesday. So it sounds like Archer and then a whole lot of ??????????? after that

Geltz should be the guy in the 9th, but the other roles go to whom? Andriese is a starter, but threw 34 pitches tonight so he's likely down. Gomes threw two innings but only 24 pitches, should be good. Same for Colome and Cedeno (LHP). Box has worked three days in a row a bunch this year, so maybe it's still him with a tight leash.

On the other side, Greggerson went three innings the L2 days and HOU already salvaged a split. The AL West race makes me think he's available again, also with the low pitch count in getting six outs on Tuesday. He's had a couple three-in-a-rows, so he should be there to close again. Harris probably won't be there because he's worked a bunch in three of four, but the rest of the pen is there.

Archer can definitely K the world, though that may run up his pitch count which I'm sure HOU will talk about as they're into that stuff as an organization. I made it Archer -110 so this number isn't too far off, but I may wait to see what happens with the number
 
I'm interested in a Balt series play. Balt was swept by Min at Minny last month but now getting Minny at home where they are much better - Min likely without Perkins for the series. Balt picking up a bit and Min a team I expect to fade down the stretch.
 
Also looking at an Arz series play. Arz still with slim playoff hopes have played hard on this road trip. Cincy already playing like shit and now they lose Hamilton and may be without Phillips for a game. Pitching advantage to Arz throughout the series.
 
Minus 2.5 very possible.
Texas
Pitt
Yanks
Philadelphia all very possible
Need to look at Angel starter. Angels 8-2 after shutting out a team this year while WS 2-4 in the spot this year 9-19 last 3 years. Still need to look at the ASTRO game.
 
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Peavy splits are weird. 4 days is his best 2.91 ERA 0-3
At night 5.03 ERA 3-2 whie in the day with much better numbers 0-3
Meanwhile if you look at the teams he has faced recently he does well against bums and gets handled by good teams
Wins at Arizona giving up 4 and wins vs Washington giving up 5. Real problems with the old pitchers and SF off their top hitter.
Pitt 7-3 vs SF last 10 and a top home team
 
C-MAN said:
Also looking at an Arz series play. Arz still with slim playoff hopes have played hard on this road trip. Cincy already playing like shit and now they lose Hamilton and may be without Phillips for a game. Pitching advantage to Arz throughout the series.
Click to expand...
Do not disagree but the team is playing with real effort and betting against on extended losing streaks continuing is dangerous if the team has any quality. May play Arizona but this bothers me.
 
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Super steam. At Covers info we see Lance Barksdale ump in Colorado. 3 games with Scherzer and he got handled in the last 2. He is a baby that is very effected by umps. Go to baseball-reference and they do not list Lance
Scherzer 0-2 at Colorado 5.63 ERA 16 innings
Lance is 14-7 for the home tean
2 years ago home dogs 5-4 with 2 big ones cashing
Last year home dogs went 3-0 medium size
This year 2-2
 
what the hell... the cubs total opens at 7 with the wind blowing out???

spooked


maybe Foltynewicz has a good performance since he went to high school nearby?
 
Can someone give me a reason "not" to bet Texas TT over?


Planning to make a sizable wager just want to make sure I am not missing anything. Potent bats, shitty Simon, Taxed BP.

Let me know fellas.
 
Quick look at Asto game
Ump Reyburn 9-4 for the home team.
Archer on best rest 2.37 ERA 8-3 record
3 ERA at site over 9 innings
Hugh 4.50 ERA at home with Reyburn in Colorado in a win long ago
This series has shown that Houston hitting is getting to be an open book. Tampa has known how to pitch to Houston players but the reverse is also true exceptfor the first game. Houston pitching has been fine. Houston 8-4 on on Thursday
Hugh 1.80 ERA last 3
Archer 5.89 last 3
No early decisions but Houston probably being undervalued
 
Gabe said:
Can someone give me a reason "not" to bet Texas TT over?


Planning to make a sizable wager just want to make sure I am not missing anything. Potent bats, shitty Simon, Taxed BP.

Let me know fellas.
Click to expand...

I usually wait for trends and ump info but no real objection.
This season for some reason Simon on 5 26 innings ERA 7.27
Need to take a break. GL with the bet.
 
C-MAN said:
Also looking at an Arz series play. Arz still with slim playoff hopes have played hard on this road trip. Cincy already playing like shit and now they lose Hamilton and may be without Phillips for a game. Pitching advantage to Arz throughout the series.
Click to expand...

can't blame you as only 2da likes ARI more than I do, but they're going to be favored in a bunch of the games and that bullpen still isn't trustworthy especially on the road
 
nbafan88 said:
what the hell... the cubs total opens at 7 with the wind blowing out???

spooked


maybe Foltynewicz has a good performance since he went to high school nearby?
Click to expand...

Folty could have gone to school at Wrigley and that won't help one bit if his curveball hangs

Gabe said:
Can someone give me a reason "not" to bet Texas TT over?


Planning to make a sizable wager just want to make sure I am not missing anything. Potent bats, shitty Simon, Taxed BP.

Let me know fellas.
Click to expand...

can't disagree, besides that they have a knack for not converting runners on the road

tuck321 said:
Quick look at Asto game
Ump Reyburn 9-4 for the home team.
Archer on best rest 2.37 ERA 8-3 record
3 ERA at site over 9 innings
Hugh 4.50 ERA at home with Reyburn in Colorado in a win long ago
This series has shown that Houston hitting is getting to be an open book. Tampa has known how to pitch to Houston players but the reverse is also true exceptfor the first game. Houston pitching has been fine. Houston 8-4 on on Thursday
Hugh 1.80 ERA last 3
Archer 5.89 last 3
No early decisions but Houston probably being undervalued
Click to expand...

TB should have won the first three in this series, blew the last two in the 8th inning and later
 
tuck321 said:
Scherzer 0-2 at Colorado 5.63 ERA 16 innings
Click to expand...
I'm all for stats and trends but, at the same time, they're kind of weightless without the proper context: all three of his appearances at Coors Field came as a rookie with the Diamondbacks back in 2008/2009. The Max Scherzer of 2009 that the D-Backs saw fit to trade for Ian Kennedy is not exactly the same as the Max Scherzer of 2015.

Having said that, given how poorly he's pitched all month, it's anyone guess how he does tonight.
 
F.P. Santangelo was talking about Scherzer last night on the broadcast and said some of the recent problem had to do with his fastball flattening out due to finger grip on the ball. Apparently Max is aware of that and is making the adjustment on the grip to hopefully alleviate the problem for tonight's start vs. Rockies.
 
jerome williams has had three straight outings giving up only 1 ER each... unforunately those outings were vs the Dodgers, @ SD & @Mil...nothing impressive imo both offenses are performing well and both these pitchers suck imo.... over?
 
overs look very good in boston (73% over - reverse linemovement), Miami(81% over w/ RLM) detroit (currently 92% on the over) & chicago (85% on the over)


gotta wait for umps
 
nbafan88 said:
jerome williams has had three straight outings giving up only 1 ER each... unforunately those outings were vs the Dodgers, @ SD & @Mil...nothing impressive imo both offenses are performing well and both these pitchers suck imo.... over?
Click to expand...

LAD is pretty impressive
 
GWarner27 said:
Folty could have gone to school at Wrigley and that won't help one bit if his curveball hangs



can't disagree, besides that they have a knack for not converting runners on the road



TB should have won the first three in this series, blew the last two in the 8th inning and later
Click to expand...

Tampa has played 3 games against Houston. They have faced lefties twice and won once. They have faced 1 right hander and lost.
Your judgement is Tampa Bay which sadly is another reason for liking Houston. Yesterday I bet Houston under a play you mentioned and played Detroit and Colorado first half one of the sides you mentioned. I thought the rest all sucked which proved to be the case. Bottom line you have almost no comprehension of how to judge or utilize strong teams which is suicidal in most sports.
 
Possibly since Colorado is starting a lefty is the over. Not a pick still thinking
 
[h=4]Year-by-Year: Night[/h] Click year to see all splits · SHARE using Permanent Link

[TABLE="class: stats_table"]
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup> <thead> [TR]
[TH="class: tooltip sort_default_asc, align: center"]I[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, align: left"]Year[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]W[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]L[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]<nobr>W-L%</nobr>[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, align: center"]ERA[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]G[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]GS[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]GF[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]CG[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SHO[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SV[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]IP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]H[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]R[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]ER[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]HR[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]BB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]IBB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SO[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]HBP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]BK[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]WP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]BF[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, align: center"]WHIP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]SO9[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]SO/W[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead> <tbody> [TR]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].200[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.73[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]155[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.636[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.57[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2013[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].727[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.52[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]92.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]64[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]395[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.370[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2014[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].400[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.55[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]42[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]151[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.631[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2015[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].000[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.75[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.250[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.33[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Career Total[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].478[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.99[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]35[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]171.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]206[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]103[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]95[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]57[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]120[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]761[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.535[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.11[/TD]
[/TR]
</tfoot>[/TABLE]


Perez @ Night
 
tuck321 said:
Tampa has played 3 games against Houston. They have faced lefties twice and won once. They have faced 1 right hander and lost.
Your judgement is Tampa Bay which sadly is another reason for liking Houston. Yesterday I bet Houston under a play you mentioned and played Detroit and Colorado first half one of the sides you mentioned. I thought the rest all sucked which proved to be the case. Bottom line you have almost no comprehension of how to judge or utilize strong teams which is suicidal in most sports.
Click to expand...

thank you for eloquently saying you are fading me, however if you want to rely on blown saves to cash bets on -200 favorites then please tell me where i can sign up to take your action
 
GWarner27 said:
thank you for eloquently saying you are fading me, however if you want to rely on blown saves to cash bets on -200 favorites then please tell me where i can sign up to take your action
Click to expand...

Not exactly. I am judging. I assume more losers then winners but I liked the under pick and the Detroit pitcher was good on 6. Cubs starter had average results with the ump and the price was absurd. You ignored it when I pointed out Ray was 0-4 on 4 days rest with I believe a 4,50 ERA. What happened. You gave and still give no respect to Pitt which is simply insane and you delighted to play a a starter as a dog on the road against a decent team playing with MAJOR REVENGE who had never won a road game and you were seriously interest in the Mariners. You should not worry about what I say. You should be asking YOURSELF why you are fond of insanity. By the way so far I do not see enough of an edge to involve with Houston today because I am interested in big edges and trying very hard to not do stupid things. A very good habit.
 
i made two bets yesterday, ATL who led 1-0 through 5 and Detroit. Felt good about the day (+0.5u) and 2-0 (+2.5u) was very close.

I think you make the mistake of thinking my leans are plays, though i've done the same thing in this and every sport I post about on here as many others do. You're right, I considered ARI up until gametime but decided to lay off and am happy I did. Glad my leans are helping you out :shake:
 
Anaheim is playing at home tomorrow against Toronto playing off a loss and a day off. Implications are this is a must win game and maybe under.
 
Is there any correlation to era based on days rest from year to year? These samples of a few games on x amount of rest or with so and so ump seem completely irrelevant to me.
 
triceratops said:
Is there any correlation to era based on days rest from year to year? These samples of a few games on x amount of rest or with so and so ump seem completely irrelevant to me.
Click to expand...
It varies. If it seems that way to you that is fine with me.
 
triceratops said:
Is there any correlation to era based on days rest from year to year? These samples of a few games on x amount of rest or with so and so ump seem completely irrelevant to me.
Click to expand...

i generally look to see a big difference, but it's really tough to know which guys like extended rest and who doesn't with ~210 starting pitchers in the league. Also guys with big workloads year over year, or even in the same season getting an extra day is usually a good sign to me
 
tuck321 said:
It varies. If it seems that way to you that is fine with me.
Click to expand...

Yes and you obviously you see it the opposite but I'm not interested in 2 people's opinions I'm interested if there are actual numbers to back it up and thought you might have some since you pretty much exclusively bet off such info, or at least what you discuss in this thread
 
I bet off many things. Days rest is one important tool which is not debatable anymore than the color of a traaffic light. If you want to learn about it go to baseball-reference.com and study. Down on Angels. At least 4 angles. Also on Texas. Probably Pitt. The most dangerous pitcher SF has Bumgarner is supposed to be coming in tomorrow and last time he had a complete game shutout at Pitt I believe. They pretty much have to come strong here. One reason yesterday was low scoring I imagine.
 
tuck321 said:
I bet off many things. Days rest is one important tool which is not debatable anymore than the color of a traaffic light. If you want to learn about it go to baseball-reference.com and study. Down on Angels. At least 4 angles. Also on Texas. Probably Pitt. The most dangerous pitcher SF has Bumgarner is supposed to be coming in tomorrow and last time he had a complete game shutout at Pitt I believe. They pretty much have to come strong here. One reason yesterday was low scoring I imagine.
Click to expand...

PIT swept SF at AT&T in their "elimination from the playoffs" revenge, i think this is just an important game but there's gotta be some payback in mind from that even if SF is really banged up
 
Right or wrong is not involved. As a practical policy you take out the weak opponent First. Tomorrow will be amazing I imagine
 
Can we stop the bickering about people's records and such. The whole purpose of this site is to share information and viewpoints. Do with it whatever you want. Blindly tailing is stupid.
 
Agree with that. I see a smaller bet on Yanks largely because of reading at Killersports .
 
triceratops said:
Is there any correlation to era based on days rest from year to year? These samples of a few games on x amount of rest or with so and so ump seem completely irrelevant to me.
Click to expand...

absolutely irrelevant and usually extremely small sample size as well. To each their own but it's quite mind boggling to me.
 
I've been able to be successful pairing days rest with pitch count. Only did it like twice but one of them was fading Kershaw and I got +250. It was versus the Rangers on June 17th - the game where he was coming in on 4 days rest after throwing 117 pitches in his previous start. The Dodgers are 2-10 SU in his starts when he threw more than 115 pitches five days ago. The opposing team averaged 5.0 runs per game.
 
Another dude is Vogelsong. Watch the next time he is at home on 5 or more days of rest. You'll ask yourself why the line is so short. He is about .620 SU at home on extra rest and the under is over .700 in that situation. It translates to about a 16% and 35% ROI, respectively.
 
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