Thursday Discussion

buckeyeburritos · Apr 15, 2009

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL - Apr 16
NATIONAL LEAGUE
9:10 AM
901 FLA MARLINS, Pitcher: A SANCHEZ -R +1½-175 o9-110 +116
902 ATL BRAVES, Pitcher: K KAWAKAMI-R -1½+155 u9-110 -136
9:35 AM
903 HOU ASTROS, Pitcher: R ORTIZ -R +1½-165 o9½+105 +124
904 PIT PIRATES, Pitcher: J KARSTENS-R -1½+145 u9½-125 -144
11:20 AM
905 STL CARDINALS, Pitcher: WAINWRIGHT-R
-105
906 CHI CUBS, Pitcher: S MARSHALL-L
-115
4:05 PM
907 PHI PHILLIES, Pitcher: J BLANTON -R -1½+120 o10-105 -139
908 WAS NATIONALS, Pitcher: S MARTIS -R +1½-140 u10-115 +119
4:10 PM
909 SDG PADRES, Pitcher: J PEAVY -R +1½-200 o7½-105 +105
910 NY METS, Pitcher: J MAINE -R -1½+170 u7½-115 -125
7:10 PM
911 SFO GIANTS, Pitcher: B ZITO -L +1½-160 o8½-105 +135
912 LA DODGERS, Pitcher: E STULTS -L -1½+140 u8½-115 -155
AMERICAN LEAGUE
10:05 AM
913 CLE INDIANS, Pitcher: C LEE -L +1½-125 o9EV +180
914 NY YANKEES, Pitcher: C SABATHIA-L -1½+105 u9-120 -210
4:05 PM
915 CHI W SOX, Pitcher: J DANKS -L -1½+135 o9½+105 -120
916 TB RAYS, Pitcher: J NIEMANN -R +1½-155 u9½-125 EV
5:10 PM
917 TOR B-JAYS, Pitcher: R HALLADAY-R -1½+120 o7½EV -140
918 MIN TWINS, Pitcher: F LIRIANO -L +1½-140 u7½-120 +120
7:10 PM
919 LA ANGELS, Pitcher: J SAUNDERS-L
920 SEA MARINERS, Pitcher: C JAKABAUSKAS-R

wreck · Apr 15, 2009

Jakubauskas

that's a hell of a name

SteelBucsFan · Apr 15, 2009

Wainwright has been skating on thin ice w/ an era under 2 but only lasting 5inn per start and giving up lots of walks to bad hitting teams ...Sooner or later someone will cash his ticket ..

Karstens for the Pirates is a walk machine , won the 5th spot in rotation by default ..Thinking an afternoon over in the burgh..pirates 3/4/5 hitters look to be warming up a bit ...I think Houston is too

CrimsonK · Apr 15, 2009

Ugly card at first glance IMO.. Nothing jumped out to me

Chippy · Apr 15, 2009

t/wreck said:
Jakubauskas

that's a hell of a name

Gotta have broad shoulders to carry around a name like that.

CrimsonK · Apr 15, 2009

Lean Tampa.. I like Danks but I think Tampa is in a pretty good spot to win one at home

SportsNut · Apr 15, 2009

Seen Roland Smith as the starter at Seattle but now sportsinsights has King Felix listed ....no idea what is going on !

If SEA loses today then like SEA...

Have to fade Pittsburgh IMO because you have Jeff Karstens about 10 games into the season who broke camp with the team and has yet to face a batter . Ortiz 1st start but at least he has 2relief apps and 4 innings . Would expect Karstens to be rusty.....

I played ATL 1st game and parlayed them today so at this price you can bet I will play them again.....

Love the Yanks and all but cant lay -200 with Nady out now as well vs a LHP even if its Cliff Lee.....

Nationals and Over ..?? Blanton as road chalk ..?

Under @ TB..

Mets ML..??

thats all so far ..BOL

SportsNut · Apr 15, 2009

Agree with Steelbucs fan as well...especially Wainright ! Dude has left about 12 MOB in the 1st 2 innings of his 2 starts this year ...1st inn Yes there will be a score Prop maybe....

CrimsonK · Apr 15, 2009

Like that TB UNDER SN.. Waiting for the drop to 9 for a better price at my outs

smo1a · Apr 15, 2009

Love Tribe. Pressure will get to CC and Yanks bats. I think Lee rights the ship.

Agree about Wainright and like Cubs off loss today.

Like Atlanta and Minny as well.

E.T.G. · Apr 15, 2009

Seems I have some of the same leans.

Was looking at the over in Pitt. Russ Ortiz, really? Karstens? These offenses have to do SOMETHING in this game.

Peavy +money will always get my attention, its a game I need to look deeper at.

I don't see much of anything out of twins, Liriano isn't sharp, and I consider this a cheap price on the beast right now. Toronto is really hitting the ball. You got Liriano who I think you get 5-6ip and 3-4er, thats about as good as I can really see him doing but I don't think he is at that point yet where he is going to come out tomorrow and throw 7ip-2er game. Halladay can and will dominate you. He is 7-0 against the twins in his career.

TheLaw4 · Apr 15, 2009

<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 12"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 12"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5CDave%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><link rel="themeData" href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5CDave%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_themedata.thmx"><link rel="colorSchemeMapping" href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5CDave%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_colorschememapping.xml"><style>  </style>Twins are trying to avoid a 4 game sweep at home but this isn't the man to face and try it[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]

twins won yesterday.

E.T.G. · Apr 15, 2009

TheLaw4 said:
twins won yesterday.

haha, thanks for correcting me. sumwhere in my head i thought Toronto won every game there, don't mind me, its a little cloudy up there right now

tuck321 · Apr 16, 2009

Sabathia is 12-1 last 13 at home. He has just watched 2 other Yankee pitchers throw very good starts. Lee has resembled a train wreck so far this season. i personally was trying to decide between Yankees ml, Yankees minus 2.5 and using them in some parlay. Think I will wait for Sportsnut on this one as they are missing some firepower. By the way I Never lay 1.5 with the Yankees

RetroVK · Apr 16, 2009

By the way I Never lay 1.5 with the Yankees

some statistical historical reasoning behind this ????? when they win by two or more it is usally the more and not the two ????????

Kmacc · Apr 16, 2009

Agree w/ what has been said above about Karstens and Pitt. Nice chance for a correlation there w/ Houston and Over

Like the Mutts at home as well as good as Peavy is think Maine is going to have a really strong year and not often you will get NYM at home at this price against probally the worst 6-3 team.

May take a flier w/ CLee and the Injuns no way CC should be -200 could we see both NY teams lose the opener in their new parks??

E.T.G. · Apr 16, 2009

other thoughts:

You will see me on the Angels if the price is right. They are currently losing 4-2 right now but Saunders could be the man to end that. Was on him last start, he didn't pitch bad at all, Jason Bay just got the better of him. So in my mind, to start the yr he has had 2 good outtings. He went 10-3 w/ 2.55era on the road last yr. Opponents batted .231 off of him. Seattle splits look like this:

@Sea: 5.1ip-6h-2er-3bb-1k
Vs: 8ip-6h-4er-2hr-2k *5days later
@Sea: 7ip-6h-1er-1bb-5k
Vs: 7ip-8h-3er-1bb-5k

He has shown the ability to work late into the game against Seattle.

wreck · Apr 16, 2009

I'd really like the Pitt Over if it was a flat 9

At 9.5 +105 maybe but since it's sided under at -125 I'll wait it out.

Nationals Over 10 +100, I was at opening day and it was a laugher. This team can score but the pitching serves up tee-ball-esque looks. Getting rid of Milledge will only help their production and maybe even give them a chance to win but there's no real reason to back Nats arms. Philly will smash and since both teams were able to sit around yesterday it should show tonight.

Are the Braves really going to get swept at home?

hexguru · Apr 16, 2009

surprise no mention of zito and the giants anemic offense....

hexguru · Apr 16, 2009

Kmacc said:
Agree w/ what has been said above about Karstens and Pitt. Nice chance for a correlation there w/ Houston and Over

Like the Mutts at home as well as good as Peavy is think Maine is going to have a really strong year and not often you will get NYM at home at this price against probally the worst 6-3 team.

May take a flier w/ CLee and the Injuns no way CC should be -200 could we see both NY teams lose the opener in their new parks??

maine and perez i always feel you never know what your gonna get out of them, capable of real good ad real bad...

tuck321 · Apr 16, 2009

Remember that I have bad eyesight and look at the Yankee game logs from last year. When they were at home I think the breakdown was losses, wins by 1, and 3 by 2 and 27 by 3 or more but you should check that. This season I believe they have no 2 run wins.
They have 5 wins and 1 is by 1 and the other 4 were by 3 or more.

E.T.G. · Apr 16, 2009

I'm looking for a way to get involved with the Yankee game. Maybe Yankees team total over.

hexguru · Apr 16, 2009

E.T.G. said:
I'm looking for a way to get involved with the Yankee game. Maybe Yankees team total over.

New York is hitting .269 BA on the season but that improves to .322 against left-handed pitching and that is what it will encounter Thursday afternoon in reigning Cy Young winner Cliff Lee.
In his lone start against the Yankees last season, Lee was impressive as he shut New York out for seven innings while allowing just six hits and no walks. Prior to that, he was 2-3 with a 6.82 ERA in six starts including a 1-2 record and an 8.79 ERA in New York.

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gsro · Apr 16, 2009

tuck321 said:
Remember that I have bad eyesight and look at the Yankee game logs from last year. When they were at home I think the breakdown was losses, wins by 1, and 3 by 2 and 27 by 3 or more but you should check that. This season I believe they have no 2 run wins.

beat tampa 7-2 i think a couple nights ago?

Kmacc · Apr 16, 2009

hexguru said:
maine and perez i always feel you never know what your gonna get out of them, capable of real good ad real bad...

Very true but they tend to be better at home than on the road, even though its now a new home park. Think it benefits a guy like Maine to have this big ballpark behind hime b/c when he gets in trouble he thends to miss up in the zone and give up a few long balls. Players from both teams have said this one is playing bigger than Petco. Weather has been pretty cool the last couple days in the Northeast and don't expect that to change overnight. Peavy was solid in his first two outings going 15 innings in 2 games 105 and 106 pitches in those starts. Expect Mets to take a patient approach at the plate to make Peavy work deep in the counts and try to get him out of the game by the 6th to make that SD bullpen go to work. Mets w/ a chance to win the series against the Padres who are gonna come back to the pack sooner rather than later imo

E.T.G. · Apr 16, 2009

hexguru said:
New York is hitting .269 BA on the season but that improves to .322 against left-handed pitching and that is what it will encounter Thursday afternoon in reigning Cy Young winner Cliff Lee.
In his lone start against the Yankees last season, Lee was impressive as he shut New York out for seven innings while allowing just six hits and no walks. Prior to that, he was 2-3 with a 6.82 ERA in six starts including a 1-2 record and an 8.79 ERA in New York.

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Good stuff.

Is Cliff the guy from 2003-2007 who had a weighted ERA of 4.7 or is this the guy from 2008 who posted a 2.54era. I don't think he comes close to matching 2008 and I think the Yanks come out of the game with 5+ runs tomorrow, just not so sure on what CC does.

E.T.G. · Apr 16, 2009

Note on the weather in NY tomorrow. Yankee game, it will be 60+

hexguru · Apr 16, 2009

Kmacc said:
Very true but they tend to be better at home than on the road, even though its now a new home park. Think it benefits a guy like Maine to have this big ballpark behind hime b/c when he gets in trouble he thends to miss up in the zone and give up a few long balls. Players from both teams have said this one is playing bigger than Petco. Weather has been pretty cool the last couple days in the Northeast and don't expect that to change overnight. Peavy was solid in his first two outings going 15 innings in 2 games 105 and 106 pitches in those starts. Expect Mets to take a patient approach at the plate to make Peavy work deep in the counts and try to get him out of the game by the 6th to make that SD bullpen go to work. Mets w/ a chance to win the series against the Padres who are gonna come back to the pack sooner rather than later imo

tend to agree with you, and peavy generally is overpriced (not necessarily as much tomorrow)..Have to see if i can find peavy's numbers in cool weather as tomorrow will be in 50's...

hexguru · Apr 16, 2009

E.T.G. said:
Good stuff.

Is Cliff the guy from 2003-2007 who had a weighted ERA of 4.7 or is this the guy from 2008 who posted a 2.54era. I don't think he comes close to matching 2008 and I think the Yanks come out of the game with 5+ runs tomorrow, just not so sure on what CC does.

i dont think he is anything like last year, but dont think CC pitched as well last outing as it's been made out to be...KC has guys on but did not deliver in any spots with guys on, and there lineup is far from a threat...

SportsNut · Apr 16, 2009

tuck321 said:
Sabathia is 12-1 last 13 at home. He has just watched 2 other Yankee pitchers throw very good starts. Lee has resembled a train wreck so far this season. i personally was trying to decide between Yankees ml, Yankees minus 2.5 and using them in some parlay. Think I will wait for Sportsnut on this one as they are missing some firepower. By the way I Never lay 1.5 with the Yankees

Good thing is Tex has hit Lee well in the past 8/18 , 4doubles , Hr only 2bb to 1 K ratio...Swisher has hit well vs LH so far but neutral vs Lee in the past . Really it boils down to what the Yankee LH bats can do and Ransom. Jeter solid career numbers 8/20 and like how Posada has been swinging so far but not much vs Lee in the past ...Damon 0/14 career , Cano 2/13and Matsui 4/12 but 1 rbi bewteen the trio..

Really laughing at all the anti-Yankee comments I see everywhere (dont mean CTG) . Only 5-4 but blew that game in KC for the sweep . The other 3 losses were Wang twice and CC with the same MO the SP failed to give the Yanks a chance to win . The Yanks have actually done fairly well hitting in the clutch so far IMO...so thinking CC will choke IMO is ridiculous especially when facing his old club ... Take away CC's 1st start and focus on AJ and pettitte's 2 starts plus Joba and CC 2nd start simly no team close to getting that type pitching . Bruney faced 5 guys in TB and K'd them all ..Veras 1 hit in 3.1 inn but 2 runs to be fair... figure 9 runs allowed in 5 wins and Joba allowed 1er thru 6 ..talking 10 runs in 51 innings
41.1 inn 29h 9er 5bb 36K by the SP minus the 3 poor starts 1 by CC and 2 by Wang..

Yanks win in the 9th and fly home on a high note IMO..

Remember Cliff Lee was already a home dog to Halladay and near Pkem down in texas . CC was -220 @ KC and Cle lost when facing 2 solid pitchers in KC as 130ish dogs .....

Had to expect NY to be about -180 minimum ...look at CLEs offense vs good SP Davies , Grienke, Halladay , Millwood....next to nothinmg on offense ....

think will have to play NYY ML in some sort of parlay as well. Yanks to under was great last year and with the rumors of the ball flying at the new stadium maybe we see some irrational over backers ...driving the price up ..? Also last CLE off day was 4/07 and this will be 9th straight game with an overworked bullpen minus Kerry Wood of course ...lots of travel for them as well ..

Tribe 8-14 away vs LHSP and maybe 2 quality wins vs Pettitte and Danks otherwise D-Train . Liriano in April when he wasnt ready , Harrison , Purcey , Kershaw (opposing Lee), Waters ...losses offense was poor and most where wide margins 3+ runs ..

1,4,1,4, 2,3,2,3,7,3,1,1...one loss they put up 7 in Texas vs AJ murray and forgot the other ......(tribe had two 1 run losses , 3 two run losses and 9 by 3 or more runs away vs LHP last season) ...

Yanks from June 1st on were 9-2 at home vs LHSPand 9-1-1 Under ..allowing no runs 3x , 1 run 3x , 2runs twice and 3runs 1x(the push).. so all 9 wins were 8-0-1 to the under...prior to that they were 4-0 SU and 2-2 under but allowed 0,1,2, and 5 in the wins.....

Which means 13-2 L15 at home vs LHSP 11-3-1 Under but 10-2-1 Under in the wins....just twice allowing more then 2 runs ....in those 13 wins ( so 11 x 2 or less allowed)

Prior to this they were only 1-4 but the lone win was an UNDER and think ARod was out that stretch ....so 14 wins 11-2-1 to the under and 12 of them allowed 2 or less runs.....with 4 wins by 1 run and another by two the other 9 were by 3 + runs .....

Interesting CLE lost 14 and NYY won 14 vs LH and both had 9 decided by 3 or more .....

:cheers:Food for thought ...

Guess I want to see how this game is bet surely dont want to involve myself with a -200 play that 85% of the world is on...

cubsker · Apr 16, 2009

line on yanks is moving down a bit. you dont see cy young winner +180 often.

SportsNut · Apr 16, 2009

Also Lee faced the Yanks in May minus Arod and Posada and when he was in the middle of his greatest stretch ever!! Yankee lineup had Abreu 3rd , Shelley DUncan 4th , Matsui 5th , Melky 6th , Cano 7th (much better start to the season then last year was hitting .160 after the game and it was May7th!), Morgan Ensberg 8th and Jose Molina 9th ....

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> May 12</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>TOR</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>L 0-3</TD><TD class=yspscores>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>53.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.67</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> May 7</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>@ NYY</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 3-0</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>44.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.81</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> Date</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Opponent</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Score</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Dec</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HLD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Apr 30</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>SEA</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 8-3</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>37.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.96</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Apr 24</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>@ KAN</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 2-0</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>31.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.28</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Apr 18</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>@ MIN</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 4-0</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>22.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.40</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Apr 13</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>OAK</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 7-1</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>14.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.61</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Apr 6</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>@ OAK</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 2-1</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

53.2 inn 32h 5r 4er 1 hr 4bb 44k in 7 starts the rest of the season he was in 24 starts ---(btw that was an 0.67 ERA and 0.67 WHIP!!!)

169.2 inn 182 h 63r 59er 11hr 30bb 126K (3.13 ERA 1.25 WHIP)

Take Lee's 1st 2 starts and look at his last 3 starts of 2008-

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Date</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Opponent</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Score</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Dec</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HLD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Sep 23</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>@ BOS</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>L 4-5</TD><TD class=yspscores>L</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>22</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>223.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.54</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Sep 17</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>MIN</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 6-4</TD><TD class=yspscores>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>22</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>216.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.41</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Sep 12</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>KAN</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 12-5</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>22</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>210.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.36</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

21.2 inn 30h 14r 12er 4hrs 6bb 16ks

becomes

31.2 inn 47 h 25r 23 er 5hrs 11bb 26ks past 5 starts..

Anything can happen but Lee is a work in progress and CLE has not played well with just 2 wins vs Purcey and Ponson ...:shake:

SportsNut · Apr 16, 2009

cubsker said:
line on yanks is moving down a bit. you dont see cy young winner +180 often.

or as a home dog either like he was vs Tor ...and the only Young he resembles right now is Matt Young ....

SportsNut · Apr 16, 2009

Yanks minus Arod , Nady to the DL , Tex missed a few games , Wang has been disgusting and right now two best teams in the majors are Yanks and Fla ...there isnt anyone else to even discuss ...cross off STL w/o carpenter and bullpen issues and LAD plays in a terrible division ...seattle my #5 but have fun while it lasts ..

Look at like this ...if Yanks get a solid start they are 5-1 with the only loss in the b8th on questionable decision making ...they are 0-3 when there SP stink ..

is CC going to stink tmrw ? is CLE going to break 2 runs ?? Cle did win 2 of 3 last year but all played before 5/09 ...but still just 6-20 L26 in NY..

SP who beat CLE : Millwood , Padilla , and McCarthy , Richmond, Halladay , Grienke and Davies ..figure they scored maybe 5 runs off Millwood , Doc Halladay , Grienke and Davies...Padilla left his last ST start with arm issues and well Richmond and McCarthy are raw at best ....and Texas swept them but lost th enext 5 , Jays playing well and KC was nearly swept by NY turned around and nearly swept CLE.....

wreck · Apr 16, 2009

E.T.G. said:
Good stuff.

Is Cliff the guy from 2003-2007 who had a weighted ERA of 4.7 or is this the guy from 2008 who posted a 2.54era. I don't think he comes close to matching 2008 and I think the Yanks come out of the game with 5+ runs tomorrow, just not so sure on what CC does.

Lee is going to get lit the f up tomorrow. With the crap he's been pushing across the plate in his 1st two starts? See you later.

2009 Cliff Lee = 2008 Carmona

That said how will the Injuns look against fat man CC? They have the potential to hit him hard. Should be an interesting matchup with CC and Hafner, Sizemore, Martinez, etc

SportsNut · Apr 16, 2009

Mets could be a very strong play....

Peavy has 2 starts both good nut unspectular and those were home vs SF and LAD..
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>GS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HLD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SHO</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>WHIP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BAA</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> vs. Left</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.43</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.324</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> vs. Right</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.65</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.136</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Key issue is him struggling so far vs LHBs and well thats the entire NYM lineup essentially ......Mets are 24/89 against eavy with mostly singles and some doubles mixed in ..

Also maybe Bud Black is helping us out .....

“I want to keep Peavy and Chris on regular days. They’re both throwing well,” said Padres manager Bud Black.

However, it should be noted that Peavy has a lower ERA (2.71) with an extra day’s rest than normal rest (3.64).

Gary Darling also 20-6 homefavs since the start of last year...

SD 17-37 L54 away vs RHP
16-37 L52 game 3's
16-44 as road pups L60
6-13 L19 with Peavy vs the NL East

SportsNut · Apr 16, 2009

t/wreck said:
Lee is going to get lit the f up tomorrow. With the crap he's been pushing across the plate in his 1st two starts? See you later.

2009 Cliff Lee = 2008 Carmona

That said how will the Injuns look against fat man CC? They have the potential to hit him hard. Should be an interesting matchup with CC and Hafner, Sizemore, Martinez, etc

Martinez and Peralta are keys IMO ..besides being LH sizemore 13ks in 34 abs .176 avg , Hafner 240 with 10ks in 25 abs and 4xbh / 3hrs ...all or nothing so far...............look at CC vs LHB last 2 years its insane...

15bb 89 K last year
4bb 75 K in 2007

19bbs 164K thats nearly 9 to 1...thats in 120 inn and 89 hits allowed ...so of 360 outs vs LHB then 164 cane via strikeout......

wreck · Apr 16, 2009

okay, thats pretty strong. Don't you think the day game and silly opening stadium festivities might play a part in a few tags off CC?

Sizemore is primed to actually hit something, he's been dragging ass hard these 1st two weeks.

RetroVK · Apr 16, 2009

tuck321 said:
Remember that I have bad eyesight and look at the Yankee game logs from last year. When they were at home I think the breakdown was losses, wins by 1, and 3 by 2 and 27 by 3 or more but you should check that. This season I believe they have no 2 run wins.
They have 5 wins and 1 is by 1 and the other 4 were by 3 or more.

thanks.:cheers:

Vikingsguy · Apr 16, 2009

Quick thoughts:

-Would back Kamakazi, but not with McCann and Chipper out of the lineup. Lean under, but Sanchez was destroyed by the Braves twice last year.

- I think the Mets are undervalued today. San Diego may have started nice, but long run, they don't have a winning team. A short home price imo. Take a look at Peavy's home/road dichotomy. Almost a full run ERA higher playing out of Petco...

- Angels are a tiding price...looking at that. Seattle has struggled with Saunders

- Want no part of the Twins/Jays. Liriano has been good at home, but Halladay is 7-0 career vs. Minny. Tempting on the home dog, but I think the Twins are THAT BAD right now. Have to figure Snyder sits vs. the lefty....under 7.5?

Kmacc · Apr 16, 2009

Cle projected 1 through 4 hitters: Sizemore, Derosa, Martinez & Hafner a collective 6 for 26 vs LH pitching on the year and none of them even close to the calibur of CC. Yes Cle knows CC and this may be a slight advantage but the emotion of the home opener may be too much for the Indians to overcome. Cliff Lee w/ decent success in the past vs the Yanks. I know he is not what he was last year but expect him to be around the zone and keep Cle. in the game at the very least. The pen is a bit of concern for the Indians being worn down so vital for Lee to give them atleast 6 to 7 innings today. Yanks and Cle faced 7 times last year and were 7-0 to the under. Not in love w/ an under play since not sure how the park will play.

LAA went 14-4 last year vs Seattle and 7-2 in Safeco. Have been on the Mariners for the first two games of this series and now they are an even bigger dog at home w/ a relative unknown on the bump. Really think Seattle will have its issues w/ lefties but Ichiro's return along w/ Griff and you give me +140 on the home team playing better baseball to sweep and make a statement. Definitely worth a look at this point, not like Saunders is an ace by any means. He is their #1 by default w/ all the Halos injuries to SP. Saunders was only -140 at home to open the season and now he is -150 at Safeco something doesn't add up here to me. Saunders made 7 starts last year vs the M's going 4-1 w/ a 4.61 ERA. He was 2-0 at Safeco w/ a 5.65 ERA as he started 3 games and lasted only 14.1 in those 3 outings. At this point contemplating Seattle + and Over 8.5

D-Woww · Apr 16, 2009

t/wreck said:
Jakubauskas

that's a hell of a name

u think the names good, u should hear the guys story. unreal, one of the best ive heard in baseball since the phils brought up chris coste

frankiegotti · Apr 16, 2009

Sports nut, thanks for the write up on the yankees, I think I may roll with them today, but the price is very high, I am contemplating whether or not the new opening of the ball park will be too much pressure, although with a payroll as big as the yankees you have to figure they are used to dealing with pressure, so I am unsure what I will do at this point.

EstreetPicks · Apr 16, 2009

E.T.G. said:
Good stuff.

Is Cliff the guy from 2003-2007 who had a weighted ERA of 4.7 or is this the guy from 2008 who posted a 2.54era. I don't think he comes close to matching 2008 and I think the Yanks come out of the game with 5+ runs tomorrow, just not so sure on what CC does.

Completely agree, ETG, Lee had a spectacular year last year but until he does it again that's all it was. You have the past 2 Cy Young award winners going against each other (both with the tribe when they won) but one of them has the Yankees lineup while the other has the third to fourth place team in the central backing him up...people are going broke waiting for Lee to "turn it around".....Yanks on the run line here

Kmacc · Apr 16, 2009

Atlanta's lineup looks soft w/ no Chipper and no BMac...the 36 year old Garrett Anderson hitting cleanup please....Anibal struggled last year vs Hotlanta but Kawakami making just his 2nd start and has to be very good to keep the Fish from running all over him and David Ross. Like Amezega back in the lineup w/ a bunch of speed at the top and a chance to put up a few early runs. So give me the Fish at +$ for the sweeeeep

jimbo1227 · Apr 16, 2009

fla @ atl : i just took the under 8.5 (-110). i have to say im a bit surprised as to how this series played out but i agree with kmacc, no way could i bet on atl. i think it will be low scoring and the side could be a toss up but it is a cheap line on a good team trying to avoid a home sweep??

hou @ pit : i played pitt (-123) for some small change. pitching advantage is heavily in favor of pitt imo. didnt really want to touch this game but i hope pitt can scratch some across at home.

cle @ nyy : played the under 8.5 (-125) definately lean to the yanks but i have at least some doubt and since it is HEAVY juice i will stay away. also, since i have the under i would rather not take a side. i would say yank RL is probably pretty risky shit.

stl @ chc : got on the over 8 (-105) for the nice low total. think this could be a shootout.

jimbo1227 · Apr 16, 2009

i dont know about the fading of karstens when he is rusty. im pretty sure he had not pitched in a long time last year when he came to pitch @ wrigley. he pitched a near no hitter and the announcers were like this isnt the first time he has had a LONG layoff and first start was a damn gem. weird guy imo but he has a REALLY sick changeup that he relies on. i agree the over looks like gold even with these offenses but the line move from 9.5 to 9 and then moving the juice to the under on the 9 automatically puts me off the over.

DJ Tanner · Apr 16, 2009

jimbo1227 said:
fla @ atl : i just took the under 8.5 (-110). i have to say im a bit surprised as to how this series played out but i agree with kmacc, no way could i bet on atl. i think it will be low scoring and the side could be a toss up but it is a cheap line on a good team trying to avoid a home sweep??

hou @ pit : i played pitt (-123) for some small change. pitching advantage is heavily in favor of pitt imo. didnt really want to touch this game but i hope pitt can scratch some across at home.

cle @ nyy : played the under 8.5 (-125) definately lean to the yanks but i have at least some doubt and since it is HEAVY juice i will stay away. also, since i have the under i would rather not take a side. i would say yank RL is probably pretty risky shit.

stl @ chc : got on the over 8 (-105) for the nice low total. think this could be a shootout.

Good Luck I missed the first 2 games

I am betting

NYY under
NYY-2.5 (+155)...I'm thinking Sabathia and Lee pitch great early and the bullpen gives the Yankees the 4-1 win.
STL Over
St Louis -1.5 (+150)...I think Marshall stuggles today and a hurt Ramirez does not help their chances

LET's cash!!:shake:

SportsNut · Apr 16, 2009

I played the Yanks in a couple parlays was hard to find suitable games to play them with ...not really interested in -1.5 RL ...

bottomline is anything can happen in baseball so who knows what to expect in the Yankee game . Pressure is something I dont see as a concern because the only guy who ever visibly pressed was ARod. Posada and Jeter are lifers , Damon and Swisher are free spirits , Tex is the one guy maybe ....

also doesnt anyone else think Yanks may have a huge edge here in regards to the change in batters eye ? Thats been the one thing that has been talked about how different it is at homeplate looking into the backdrop. Yanks played 2 games already here and both teams played yesterday so Cle probably seeing it for the 1st time this afternoon....remember Yanks hit 6 hrs to Cubs zero in the 2 game exhibition.....

:cheers:

SportsNut · Apr 16, 2009

Parlays :

Yanks , Angels , Mets ..

Yanks , Angels , Mets and Cubs..

forget the exact payouts and lazy to look probably about 3.5 to 1 and 7 to 1..

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