Thursday Discussion

[E.T.G.]

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=blk-title colSpan=7>MLB Baseball - Thu 7/5</TD></TR><TR class=wht-title bgColor=#16177c><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD noWrap>Run Line</TD><TD noWrap>Money Line</TD><TD noWrap>Total Runs</TD><TD>More </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 7/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>951</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Milwaukee Brewers
B. Sheets</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +132 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-125 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 8 +109 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 09:35 AM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>952</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Pittsburgh Pirates
T. Gorzelanny <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -142 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+117 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 8 -119 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 7/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>953</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Florida Marlins
B. H. Kim</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -106 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+224 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 7.5 +115 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 12:35 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>954</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>San Diego Padres
J. Peavy <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 -104 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-242 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 7.5 -125 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 7/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>955</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Chicago Cubs
S. Marshall</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +132 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-127 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 8 -104 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>956</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Washington Nationals
J. Bergmann <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -142 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+119 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 8 -106 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 7/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>957</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>San Francisco Giants
M. Morris</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -166 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+120 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 10 +101 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>958</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Cincinnati Reds
B. Arroyo <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +156 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-128 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 10 -111 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 7/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>959</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Arizona D-Backs
D. Davis</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -174 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+117 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9 -111 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:15 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>960</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>St Louis Cardinals
A. Wainwright <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +164 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-125 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9 +101 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 7/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>961</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New York Mets
J. Maine</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +138 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-118 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>962</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Houston Astros
J. Jennings <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -148 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+110 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9 -105 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 7/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>963</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Atlanta Braves
T. Hudson</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -191 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+122 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 7 -115 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>964</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Los Angeles Dodgers
B. Penny <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +178 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-130 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 7 +105 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 7/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>965</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Cleveland Indians
C.C. Sabathia</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -201 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+108 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 8 +107 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 10:05 AM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>966</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Detroit Tigers
J. Verlander <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +183 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-116 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 8 -117 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 7/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>967</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Minnesota Twins
K. Slowey</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -134 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+147 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 10.5 -120 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 10:05 AM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>968</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New York Yankees
K. Igawa <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +124 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-155 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 10.5 +110 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 7/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>969</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Tampa Bay Devil Rays
J. Howell</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 +101 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+212 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9.5 -124 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>970</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Boston Red Sox
J. Beckett <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 -111 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-230 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9.5 +114 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 7/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>971</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Baltimore Orioles
B. Burres</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -201 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-102 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>972</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Chicago White Sox
J. Danks <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +183 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-106 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9 -105 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 7/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>973</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>LAA Angels
K. Escobar</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 -104 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-162 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 10.5 +104 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:35 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>974</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Texas Rangers
R. Tejeda <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -106 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+154 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 10.5 -114 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 7/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>975</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Seattle Mariners
M. Batista</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -158 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+132 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9 +115 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>976</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Oakland Athletics
C. Gaudin <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +148 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-140 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9 -125 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



Just getting this out there early. I have a decent amount of shit to do on Thursday so most of my research will have to be done tonight and I will have some thoughts to contribute in a little bit.

 

[reNew Orleans]

<table bordercolor="#cccccc" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#ff0000"><td colspan="3" class="sports-label">Thursday, Jul 5</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb"> American League </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Time</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Game</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Starters</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">1:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Cleveland at Detroit
Home Plate Umpire: Doug Eddings</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> C.C. Sabathia
Justin Verlander
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">1:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Minnesota at NY Yankees
Home Plate Umpire: Dan Iassogna</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Kevin Slowey
Kei Igawa
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">7:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Tampa Bay at Boston
Home Plate Umpire: Gerry Davis</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> J.P. Howell
Josh Beckett
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">8:11 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Baltimore at Chi. White Sox
Home Plate Umpire: Angel Hernandez</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Brian Burres
John Danks
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">8:35 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> LA Angels at Texas
Home Plate Umpire: Angel Campos</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Kelvim Escobar
Robinson Tejeda
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">10:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Seattle at Oakland
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Miguel Batista
Chad Gaudin
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb"> National League </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Time</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Game</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Starters</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">12:35 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Home Plate Umpire: Rob Drake</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Ben Sheets
Tom Gorzelanny
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">3:35 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Florida at San Diego
Home Plate Umpire: Sam Holbrook</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Byung-Hyun Kim
Jake Peavy
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">7:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Chi. Cubs at Washington
Home Plate Umpire: Jeff Kellogg</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Sean Marshall
Jason Bergmann
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">7:10 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> San Francisco at Cincinnati
Home Plate Umpire: Gary Darling</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Matt Morris
Bronson Arroyo
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">7:15 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Arizona at St. Louis
Home Plate Umpire: C.B. Bucknor</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Doug Davis
Adam Wainwright
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">8:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> NY Mets at Houston
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> John Maine
Jason Jennings
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">10:10 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Atlanta at LA Dodgers
Home Plate Umpire: Phil Cuzzi</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Tim Hudson
Brad Penny
Bullpen Availability</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[reNew Orleans]

hook me up with that under in det/cle please.

 

[E.T.G.]

hook me up with that under in det/cle please.

I tried that already last time these two went head to head and lost in the 5th. It will prob hit for you

 

[reNew Orleans]

I just saw Eddings and the two pitchers listed, but career #'s for both vs the opposing teams aren't too supportive.

 

[Peldas]

I will take Milwaukee ML 6/10 and RL 4/10

Brewers All-Star shortstop J.J. Hardy became ill with flu-like symptoms before Tuesday afternoon's game in Pittsburgh and returned to the team hotel. Utilityman Craig Counsell took Hardy's place in the lineup. Hardy is not expected to be sidelined more than a day or two.

Hardy was big miss in past days. In first game I saw Brewers had all bases filled and then came Counsell. He is awfull.

Tomorow Brewers will have Sheets on the mound and I think if Hardy will come back they will score more. Lineup will have two very potent home run hitters (Fielder and Hardy).

We'll see...

 

[Dmoney416]

Baltimore -102
Florida +224
Washington/Chicago Under 8
San Fran/Cincy Under 10
NY Mets -118

These look good to me at first glance.

 

[E.T.G.]

This line is going to drop tonight (Brewers) as well as I think the class of people who bet early are pounding Gorzelanny right now. The Brewers just dropped 2 in a row to the Pirates so in the 4th game for the series the Brewers need to win in order to split and Sheets is pitching, the guy they rely on to stop the bleeding. Agree here would like Sheets -120

 

[E.T.G.]

Baltimore -102
Florida +224
Washington/Chicago Under 8
San Fran/Cincy Under 10
NY Mets -118

These look good to me at first glance.

Agree there.. I haven't looked at totals yet but my leans on sides are.

Brewers
Cards (depending what happens 2night)
Dodgers (depending what happens 2night)
Mets
Indians (more + )
Twins
Orioles
A's -1 for even money

 

[reNew Orleans]

balty
sf
cle
cle/det under 8 (now 7.5 on pinny but i assume matchbook will stay at 8 for a while)
lad
atl/lad under 7
chc/wash under 8
nym/hou under 9

in no particular order - just throwing out some leans.

 

[tee*dub]

Cards cheap again IMO.

Sheets will be a rock. Will Brew Crew score enough? I think so. They have smoked lefties lately although Gorz handled them pretty well in early MAy

How can one not look at Morris plus money ?

GL.

 

[tuck321]

I think Minn is pretty much a forced bet. Yanks are 3-7 last 10. In day games they are 11-17 and Minn is 15-10. The umpire is a serious negative and Slowey is not playing very well. Reality is Igawa has a 8.40 era last 3 and an over all era of 6.91. In his home games he is averaging slightly over 5 innings a game leaving a somewhat suspect Yankee bull pen to fend for tself. Minn has adopted this Slowey and even with his poor pitching has forced wins at Detroit, Anaheim and Oakland. At Anaheim he was a 200 dog to Lackey and won 8-5. How can we be worse than even money. From my reading it actually seems Arod might not play. He has said his injury needs to be rested and they may want to rest him now with Anaheim coming in. Bottom line is I like to post strong plays with a high probability of cashing but this game is early and taking a 50-50 shot at plus 47 cents is something that must be done. GL

 

[reNew Orleans]

might be raining tomorrow in nyy game but if not winds blowing out to LF (nearly a crosswind) at around 13 mph and igawa has given up 6 HRs in his last 3 games. over lookins tempting but Iassogna not the best umpire for overs. still im starting to like the twins play tuck. +150 looks like the yankee faithful wont give up. i love them.

 

[Satyr]

Tuck that's a great point there. Looking at MIN as one of the doggies. :shake:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

More in the cloud stats (based on opening lines)...

- In the NL, favs are 66-31-3 the last 100 games (only 31.9% possible dogs).

- Favs are 14-2 in MIL's last 16 games (only 12.5% dogs).

- Favs are 13-2-2 in HOU's last 17 games (only 15.3% possible dogs).

- Favs are 12-2 in ATL's last 14 games (only 16.6% dogs).

- Favs are 8-1 in the Cubs last 9 games (only 11.1% dogs).

- Favs are 13-3 in SD's last 16 home games vs NL teams (only 18.7% dogs).

- Dogs are 8-2 in COL's last 10 home games

 

[Satyr]

BC, would you rate this 66-31-3 as a statistical anomaly which is due to regress soon, or something rather normal?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Satyr, I would rate that as a correction itself.

Just prior to this stretch of games, the Dog went 89-84-2 over 175 NL games. Even thou that's seemingly a balanced set of results, its not from an odds perspective, where at the end of a season you'll usually get a ratio between fav & dogs of somewhere around 3:2 to 3:1, so even adding this current run to this run here, you get the fav going 150-120-5, which is still less than 3:2. Because of that, it wouldnt suprise me to see it continue. Theres no easy road for someone who only bets dogs to travel down blindly, which is to say that any run of dogs hitting at over 50% will never be sustained. The books would get killed otherwise. For 2-3 weeks the NL was *plagued* with almost nothing but dogs daily. I was expecting such a Fav run, so to my mind that/this is it.