Thursday Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

Apr 21 Thu 2022

12:10 PM
951	San Francisco GiantsA. DeSclafani -R	+1½ -175	+118	O 7½ -115
952	New York MetsC. Carrasco -R	-1½ +155	-128	U 7½ -105

12:10 PM
959	Chicago White SoxD. Cease -R	-1½ +115	-138	O 8 -110
960	Cleveland GuardiansZ. Plesac -R+1 Markets	+1½ -135	+128	U 8 -110

12:10 PM
961	New York YankeesJ. Montgomery -L	-1½ -105	-160	O 8 -120
962	Detroit TigersM. Pineda -R	+1½ -115	+148	U 8 +100

12:35 PM
963	Toronto Blue JaysK. Gausman -R	-1½ +135	-116	O 9 -105
964	Boston Red SoxT. Houck -R	+1½ -155	+106	U 9 -115

01:10 PM
965	Minnesota TwinsJ. Ryan -R	-1½ +130	-117	O 8 -103
966	Kansas City RoyalsZ. Greinke -R	+1½ -150	+107	U 8 -117

02:37 PM
967	Baltimore OriolesT. Wells -R	+1½ -183	+118	O 7½ +100
968	Oakland AthleticsP. Blackburn -R	-1½ +163	-128	U 7½ -120

03:05 PM
953	Arizona DiamondbacksZ. Davies -R	+1½ -170	+115	O 9 -105
954	Washington NationalsJ. Rogers -L	-1½ +150	-125	U 9 -115

05:40 PM
955	St. Louis CardinalsJ. Hicks -R	+1½ -175	+112	O 7½ -105
956	Miami MarlinsP. Lopez -R	-1½ +155	-122	U 7½ -115

06:40 PM
957	Pittsburgh PiratesB. Wilson -R		+128
958	Chicago CubsM. Leiter -R		-138

08:40 PM
969	Texas RangersT. Hearn -L	+1½ -163	+130	O 8 -112
970	Seattle MarinersM. Gonzales -L	-1½ +143	-140	U 8 -108

 

[2daBank]

Im incredibly excited to see Hicks as a starter today, cards need a ace and if he capable of getting himself stretched out into starter he has ace type stuff!! Really have no idea what kind of pitch count he be on tonight but expect this to be another really low scoring game as cards pen perfectly capable of holding fish lineup down. Lopez shouldn’t have much prob keeping cards to 2 or less thru 6 innings. Under 7.5 feels like the right play to me.

 

[2daBank]

I really want to play the tigers, i don’t think Montgomery been as good this season as of yet and he was pretty bad in day games last year, got the hoopla w miggy prob getting his 3k hit today. Problem is Pineda and what can we expect? His numbers in his 2 minor league starts were far from impressive but I dunno if that has much meaning as it was basically his spring training. I think the price is right to take the risk with him while also thinking tigers offense might actually give some support today which been rare of late! The 3 runs they scored yesterday was their highest output In a freaking week! At some point they gonna hang a bigger number right? They are hitting lhp much better than right, Montgomery hasn’t been good in day games and sone his metrics along w velo down a bit so far this season despite the solid era. Just feels like a good spot for tigers offense to have a better game today. +148 I think enough to take a shot.

 

[2daBank]

I think chisox another offense who been struggling that should hang a bigger number today. Looking at Plesac there is next to nothing that suggest he gonna have a good outing today, I think Sox knock him around much like they did all last season. That 1.64 era he sporting thru 2 games looks fugazi as it gets. Hard hit rate is insanely high, guys barreling him up at high rate, his velo down almost 2mph on his fastball. I don’t play a lot of mlb favs but I think -138 is actually cheap here. Then again why not just go -1.5 +115? I’ll also be looking at chisox team total cause I don’t love cease here, for some reason he hasn’t fared very well vs cle, I tend to think that more likely to balance out than continue but it is a little concerning. Other than the 10 spot curtesy of Kuechal garbage ass cle offense has really came back down to earth lately so think Cease chances of success are pretty decent despite his history vs this team.

 

[King Slap]

Houck is good, so the Red Sox line is odd, which means Blue Jays win again

Love Mets

 

[2daBank]

Houck is good, so the Red Sox line is odd, which means Blue Jays win again

Love Mets

That was kinda my 1st thought when I saw jays as favs also. Gausman does have 14ks and no walks in 10innings thus far. Havnt dug deeper on that game yet but assume his metrics look really strong.

 

[2daBank]

Houck is good, so the Red Sox line is odd, which means Blue Jays win again

Love Mets

Don’t necessarily disagree w Mets, havnt looked real close at that one yet either (plan on doing it while my car at shop this morning) but I don’t think I can lay it with them as I think giants a really tough dog. I’ll definitely be looking closer at Carrasco tho, he been fantastic on surface but he has faced a couple pretty weak offenses.

 

[King Slap]

I believe I read half the Giants team is out with COVID, but haven't dug into it deep @2daBank - I'm getting ready for a job interview then I will

 

[2daBank]

I believe I read half the Giants team is out with COVID, but haven't dug into it deep @2daBank - I'm getting ready for a job interview then I will

Oh shit. Right on. Yea I’m bout to take my car to shop, I’ll try to get some stuff done on my phone while im waiting. Gl w the interview man!

 

[Oh But I Edo]

I really want to play the tigers, i don’t think Montgomery been as good this season as of yet and he was pretty bad in day games last year, got the hoopla w miggy prob getting his 3k hit today. Problem is Pineda and what can we expect? His numbers in his 2 minor league starts were far from impressive but I dunno if that has much meaning as it was basically his spring training. I think the price is right to take the risk with him while also thinking tigers offense might actually give some support today which been rare of late! The 3 runs they scored yesterday was their highest output In a freaking week! At some point they gonna hang a bigger number right? They are hitting lhp much better than right, Montgomery hasn’t been good in day games and sone his metrics along w velo down a bit so far this season despite the solid era. Just feels like a good spot for tigers offense to have a better game today. +148 I think enough to take a shot.

Issue here is Pineda prob stretched out 60-70 pitches max. If Yankees work him, which they will, this will be heavier pen day for tigers. Yankees in similar spot with taxed pen, but deeper. With that, have to assume no Holmes, or Chapman and increased load for Castro today. BTW - what a steal from the mets to trade a LOOGY for Castro with no splits....

 

[2daBank]

Issue here is Pineda prob stretched out 60-70 pitches max. If Yankees work him, which they will, this will be heavier pen day for tigers. Yankees in similar spot with taxed pen, but deeper. With that, have to assume no Holmes, or Chapman and increased load for Castro today. BTW - what a steal from the mets to trade a LOOGY for Castro with no splits....

Think we starting to make a better case for over than a side.

 

[Oh But I Edo]

yah only concern there is the FUTILE offenses. The yankees lineup is a disaster, and expect Boone to be typical Boone on a travel/getaway day and have some assinine lkineup. I expect GC to sit, and Gallo to get a look with RHP. They are all so lost, Gleybar too. I expect him to sit., An infield of Donaldson, DJ, IFK and Rizzo is likely today. OF of Hicks, Judge, Gallo. Not sure what they do at DH - lineup is woof.

 

[Oh But I Edo]

some other thoughts:

Mets - Carrasco is shoving, feel like he is going to have a great year. Off the split yesterday, I like the home team at less than .50.

Blue Jays - tough tough lineup for Houk. Gausman peripherals incredibly solid - I dont expect repeat from him this year, but .10 with a better matchup. Sox not clicking offensively - this is a lighter line IMO. Wouldve thought closer to .25-.30.

Nats under - dont expect repeat performance from AZ O - and nats lineup is trash. Davies solid. Id dabble RL here if want the odds.

Lean to Cubs (Line tough), Rangers + money, Cards + money

 

[2daBank]

yah only concern there is the FUTILE offenses. The yankees lineup is a disaster, and expect Boone to be typical Boone on a travel/getaway day and have some assinine lkineup. I expect GC to sit, and Gallo to get a look with RHP. They are all so lost, Gleybar too. I expect him to sit., An infield of Donaldson, DJ, IFK and Rizzo is likely today. OF of Hicks, Judge, Gallo. Not sure what they do at DH - lineup is woof.

I feel pretty good that tigers will actually score some runs today so guess I’ll wait and see what yanks lineup looks like.

 

[2daBank]

some other thoughts:

Mets - Carrasco is shoving, feel like he is going to have a great year. Off the split yesterday, I like the home team at less than .50.

Blue Jays - tough tough lineup for Houk. Gausman peripherals incredibly solid - I dont expect repeat from him this year, but .10 with a better matchup. Sox not clicking offensively - this is a lighter line IMO. Wouldve thought closer to .25-.30.

Nats under - dont expect repeat performance from AZ O - and nats lineup is trash. Davies solid. Id dabble RL here if want the odds.

Lean to Cubs (Line tough), Rangers + money, Cards + money

Cards fall into that who knows lineup after they have already won the series, I rarely trust them to sweep and Lopez can pitch, just don’t think cards will score much. Don’t think fish will either but gotta figure hicks prob only go 3-4 innings since he not close to fully stretched, cards pen solid but there gonna be at least one so so guy out of pen today. Think under better than side.