Thursday 12/25/14 NBA discussion thread

divol

divol

The Spurs can suck my manhood
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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - THU 12/25[/h][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Thu 12/25[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]501[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Washington Wizards[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.450[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 191.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]09:00 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]502[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]New York Knicks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 2.990[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 191.5 1.952[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Thu 12/25[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]503[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Oklahoma City Thunder[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+5 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 2.850[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 196.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]11:30 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]504[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]San Antonio Spurs[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-5 1.925[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.485[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 196.5 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Thu 12/25[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]505[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Cleveland Cavaliers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-5.5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.421[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 195 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]02:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]506[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Miami Heat[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+5.5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 3.110[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 195 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Thu 12/25[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]507[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Los Angeles Lakers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+10.5 1.925[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 6.020[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 207 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]508[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Chicago Bulls[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-10.5 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.165[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 207 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Thu 12/25[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]509[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Golden State Warriors[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+1.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 2.050[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 218.5 1.970[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]07:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]510[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Los Angeles Clippers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-1.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.862[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 218.5 1.934[/TD]
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</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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I don't know their recent record, but seems I recently been playing the Knicks and they've crushed me on X mas. I like them again here but cant pull it
 
im wonderin if the Zards start a skid after that hard fought game with the Bulls at home . thinking another Under play is in order for tomorrow vs Knicks
 
I am very surprised about the Clippers being favorites. They had a rough stretch recently culminating in todays game.
Lost at Spurs, travel all the way East to Atlanta the next day where they lose after giving up a 13 point lead in the 2nd half, now all the way back to LA on X-mas day.
The Warriors meanwhile spent the time on the West coast AND lost their last game against the Lakers in LA.
 
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NBA Christmas Day betting trends: Under hot in non-conference games
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[TD="colspan: 3"] By MARC LAWRENCE - COVERS EXPERT[/TD]
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Twas an NBA Christmas when all through the sport, hoops fans are stirring with five games to sort.

With presents stacked under the tree, here's my gift to you, for all NBA bettors to see.

With the Spurs and the Thunder taking off in flight, a Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night!

CHRISTMAS PAST

Here’s a breakdown of the 10 teams playing on Christmas Day this season and how they’ve performed in games played on Dec. 25 since 1990:

• Chicago Bulls: 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS and 3-7 O/U
Trending: 1-5 UNDER last six games

• Cleveland Cavaliers: 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS and 1-3 O/U
0-3 UNDER last three games

• Golden State Warriors: 1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U
Trending: not enough games to assess

• L.A. Clippers: 2-5 SU and 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U
3-0 ATS last three games

• L.A. Lakers: 7-10 SU and 10-6-1 ATS and 5-11-1 O/U
Trending: 5-0 ATS last five as a dog

• Miami Heat: 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS and 2-8 O/U
Trending: 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS last five games

• New York Knicks: 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS and 5-4 O/U
Trending: 0-5 ATS last five as a dog

• Oklahoma City Thunder: 3-3 SU and 3-3 ATS and 2-4 O/U
Trending: visitor 1-5 ATS Thunder/Xmas games

• San Antonio Spurs: 3-3 SU and 3-2-1 ATS and 1-5 O/U
Trending: 0-3 UNDER last three games

• Washington Wizards: 0-1 SU and 1-0 ATS and 0-1 U/U
Trending: not enough games to assess

WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY?

Noteworthy team trends wrapped inside each Christmas Day game…

• Bulls: 4-0 SU and ATS last four home Thursdays / 4-10 ATS last fourteen versus non-conference opponents

• Cavs: 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS last eight away Thursdays / 2-9 ATS versus .434 or less opponents this season

• Clippers: 1-5 ATS last six Thursdays / 15-4 SU away December / 1-4 ATS versus division opponents this season

• Heat: 3-9 ATS last 10 Thursdays / 2-7 ATS home off a SU win this season

• Knicks: 14-3 SU and 12-5 ATS home Wednesdays / 0-7 ATS home versus opponent off SU loss this season

• Lakers: 1-9 ATS last 10 games in this series / 5-0-1 ATS versus .500 or greater opponent off a SU loss this season

• Thunder: 18-6-1 ATS Thursday dogs / 6-0 ATS versus opponents off back-to-back SU wins this season

• Spurs: 4-0 SU and ATS last four home Thursdays / 1-6-1 ATS home versus opponent off SU win this season

• Warriors: 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS last 10 Thursdays / 4-1 SU and ATS away versus winning opponents this season

• Wizards: 7-2 ATS last nine Thursdays / 4-0 SU and ATS last four games versus New York

DEFENDING CHAMPION DOLDRUMS

Christmas Day has not been a gifting experience for NBA’s defending champions.

That’s confirmed by their lousy 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS mark since 2000 when facing an opponent playing with one day rest - exact.

The Thunder will look to add to that number when they visit the reigning champion Spurs at AT&T Center Thursday.

UNDER THE CHRISTMAS TREE

Non-conference games certainly bring the best defensive effort out in teams on Christmas Day.

Fourteen of the 18 games played on Dec. 25 since 1991 involving Eastern and Western Conference foes have played under the total.

THE GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING

Christmas Day underdogs with a win percentage of .740 or more (read: Warriors) are 1-7 SU and ATS.

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=401096
 
Gaius.T said:
Divol, do you have stats on the early game unders on Xmas?
Click to expand...

To my count, the last 6 seasons, it's 14 - 5 in favor of the Under

You can see overall totals result here:
date in [20141225, 20131225, 20121225, 20111225, 20101225,20091225,20081225,20071225] and H (63.6% in favor of the Under)

Here is when Eastern team is the home team:
date in [20141225, 20131225, 20121225, 20111225, 20101225,20091225,20081225,20071225] and H and conference=Eastern
3-10-0 (-9.31, 23.1%) avg total: 194.5

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[TH="align: center"]O/U:[/TH]

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Here is when Eastern team plays an Eastern team:
date in [20141225, 20131225, 20121225, 20111225, 20101225,20091225,20081225,20071225] and H and conference=Eastern and o:conference=Eastern
1-8-0 (-13.11, 11.1%)

So on paper, Knicks game looks really good for the Under.
Heat game as well - if you think it falls under the early game.

Western team playing a Western team, shows not such a good picture for the Under:
8-4-0 (-0.88, 66.7%)
But, Spurs are 2 - 0 in favor of the Under, playing on Christmas (both games at home).
Thunder are 2 - 2 totals wise on Christmas day

All the numbers are since 2007 season.

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utfootball4 said:
any value in ny ml.
Click to expand...

Knicks as home dog 0 - 10 SU this season. Wizards on the road as a favorite are 6 - 1 SU.
I wouldn't bet on the Knicks SU here...

Knicks btw, as home dog, had only one Over result, the others were all Unders...
 
:cheers3: Any other live dogs you like (heat okc gsw)?
divol said:
Knicks as home dog 0 - 10 SU this season. Wizards on the road as a favorite are 6 - 1 SU.
I wouldn't bet on the Knicks SU here...

Knicks btw, as home dog, had only one Over result, the others were all Unders...
Click to expand...
 
divol said:
To my count, the last 6 seasons, it's 14 - 5 in favor of the Under

You can see overall totals result here:
date in [20141225, 20131225, 20121225, 20111225, 20101225,20091225,20081225,20071225] and H (63.6% in favor of the Under)

Here is when Eastern team is the home team:
date in [20141225, 20131225, 20121225, 20111225, 20101225,20091225,20081225,20071225] and H and conference=Eastern
3-10-0 (-9.31, 23.1%) avg total: 194.5

<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]O/U:[/TH]

</tbody>

Here is when Eastern team plays an Eastern team:
date in [20141225, 20131225, 20121225, 20111225, 20101225,20091225,20081225,20071225] and H and conference=Eastern and o:conference=Eastern
1-8-0 (-13.11, 11.1%)

So on paper, Knicks game looks really good for the Under.
Heat game as well - if you think it falls under the early game.

Western team playing a Western team, shows not such a good picture for the Under:
8-4-0 (-0.88, 66.7%)
But, Spurs are 2 - 0 in favor of the Under, playing on Christmas (both games at home).
Thunder are 2 - 2 totals wise on Christmas day

All the numbers are since 2007 season.

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</tbody>

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Click to expand...

Thanks a lot D!
 
I think blindly betting unders today won't be profitable. Wizards off consecutive bad shooting nights vs a team that plays no defense- I expect them to right the ship. NY has been putting up points lately. Warriors/Clippers over is a strong play, regardless of trends favoring unders on xmas.
 
Spurs ml xxl
and game over xl
cavs game 1h 100 over xl
game over xxl
gs +2. Xxxl
2nd qtr over spurs 48 - max bet
 
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Why do you assume GS wins? Clippers have been playing a steady diet of quality teams. I could argue that GS has played bad in at least their last 5 games.
 
Lakers have Major revenge tomorrow at Dallas. Bulls after a day have revenge vs NO. I agree this might go under. If OKC and Spurs were not desperate that game might go under.
 
tuck321 said:
Why do you assume GS wins? Clippers have been playing a steady diet of quality teams. I could argue that GS has played bad in at least their last 5 games.
Click to expand...

dont like clippers bench, no ability to play defense.. Bogut and festivus being out is a bit bothersome ...gs coming off an embarrassing loss...they are the better deeper team and that is why I assume they will win...

Why do you assume clips have played a steady diet of good teams, they played Denver, Detroit , a banged up bucks team 2x .. That diet would make you fat...
 
I said last 5. Denver at home seems a good team to me. OKC has loss 2 of their last 5 and would have lost 3 if not for Durant going out.
 
Killersports does have a trend supporting GS but GS has no Bogut and does not seem to do well playing with fatigue against good teams.
 
Very annoying game in MSG. Under hit, if you look at the closing line of 193.5, but I took Under 192...
Aldrich with dumb foul for no reason on Gortat that made both, Carmelo made a basket + foul. Missed the free throw and Aldrich took the rebound and scored.
Result, my bet lost by one point, trend of Unders won and still no money to show for it...
Amazing...
 
divol said:
Very annoying game in MSG. Under hit, if you look at the closing line of 193.5, but I took Under 192...
Aldrich with dumb foul for no reason on Gortat that made both, Carmelo made a basket + foul. Missed the free throw and Aldrich took the rebound and scored.
Result, my bet lost by one point, trend of Unders won and still no money to show for it...
Amazing...
Click to expand...

No where in any of the article does it say anything about a closing line, it doesn't even give a total number so to say the under trend continues is untrue. You had the under and you lost.
 
Just like u posted a few weeks ago about a trend in which the west owning the east in regards to 2 games...the east won both those games..
they useless trends.. The Xmas day trend goes to 1990 ... Think some if these players weren't born yet ...
 
TheCashMan said:
The Xmas day trend goes to 1990 ... Think some if these players weren't born yet ...
Click to expand...

I think the idea is that people aren't doing anything today and it's the only game in town to bet on. The public likes to bet overs, so why not set the Christmas day totals just out of reach of what the public is betting. Not that specific players in the '90s didn't score much on Christmas. You have to be mindful of the situation, especially when someone is trying to help you, before saying someone's info is useless.
 
austinhous said:
I think the idea is that people aren't doing anything today and it's the only game in town to bet on. The public likes to bet overs, so why not set the Christmas day totals just out of reach of what the public is betting. Not that specific players in the '90s didn't score much on Christmas. You have to be mindful of the situation, especially when someone is trying to help you, before saying someone's info is useless.
Click to expand...

Not sure you read the whole thread,,, Hugh's post on the totals - useful (in context),, Divol's - not useful, it is also his lack of context - 2 cases in particular, his West vs east stats (after i posted my bulls play and other east team) which he was adamant about and couldnt believe anyone would take an east coast team after he posted the stats.... both went on to win for me -(ya me) and a few weeks back i had taken the Suns on the ml and his only comment was "you do know they will be out-rebounded" (ya me again)...

You have to be mindful of the situation, especially when someone is trying to help you, before saying someone's info is useless. Not being helpful - telling me i am wrong without facts and context...

I appreciate everyones help in this forum, i answer any question asked and try to provide facts and context - neither have been provided back to me - actually in the cases i mention- if looked at them all on the same post -one would think it was a personal attack
- don't care - only defending myself as you mentioned it - and i appreciate the info you provide...... :shake:
 
The Lakers---Guys you do understand what happened vs them and Dallas who they play tomorrow
 
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