Thurs NCAA Play....




JumpOnBoard

CTG Partner
Posted NCAA Record
Sides: 42-32 +16.52 units
Totals: 2-2 +1.91 units
Teasers: 7-8 +21.80 units
Parlays: 0-0

Props: 1-0 +1.00 units


One side for me tonight and it's the MAC tilt...

Side:

BGSU +7.5 (-108)....2 units....2.16/2.00...waited it out till last night and a 7.5 finally popped up...I think we have a beefed up line here based on CMU's ATS this season...the Chips are 7-0 ATS thus far, inclu 4-0 ATS in the MAC...also they held down BSU's passing attack last week and that's fresh on people's mind along w/ BGSU's sluggish performance vs EMU...besides that ATS number, everything else points to an inflated line...suppose to be a cold ass night in Mt Pleasant with temps near 45 degrees and some wind...was supposed to rain, but that forecast has changed...this is an advantage for BGSU, as they have the much more balanced offense...the Chips are a passing team...they've really struggled to run the ball...first glance has them 173 yds last week, but 75 of those were by the QB...that 18-7 final was misleading as well as BSU threw two picks in CMU territory and left the ball on the one in a goal line stand late in the game...in CMU's other cover at home vs Akron...Akron was going in to tie the game at half but instead threw a pick in the endzone that went 104 yds the other way...and they still lost by only 3...this team has dodged some serious bullets this year...I think they've become one dimensional and the weather won't be a positive that passing attack..

As far as BGSU, this is a team on the rise...they struggled early but that was to be expected...The Falcons boast one of the youngest teams in the country having played 27 true or redshirt freshmen....Twenty players have made their first career start this season...a slow start was expected...then public perception took a huge hit w/ a 38-3 shallacking by KSU...turns out Kent is damn good and Anthony Turner didn't play that game...WR Freddie Barned QB'd that game and it wasn't real pretty...this team can run the football though and I think that's the key to 2night...CMU has just the 65th in the country in rush defense...BGSU is second in the MAC in rushing offense gaining 194.3 yards per game on the ground...The Falcons' rushing total is 15th nationally among Division IA programs...I've heard alot of CMU has the better defense and lines, but BGSU is third in the league in total defense (316.0), sacks (15) and fewest sacks allowed (13)....The Falcons boast three of the top pass rushers in the MAC in senior defensive end Parks, senior defensive tackle Williams and sophomore defensive end Briggs. The trio has combined for 12 sacks this season. Parks is second in the league with five and Briggs is fourth with 4.5. this is a balanced football team that's gained confidence w/ young players getting experience...remember they lost 3 yr starter Omar Jacobs and had a bigtime adjustment period...also lost two 1,000 yd receivers in Sharon and name escapes me...and 1,000 yd back..

After KSU, shreaded that run D and they got challenged by their coach, they're responded...OU doesn't have a particularly good offense, but they can run it w/ Kalvin McRae....But BGSU held OU to 54 yds rushing on 1.7 yds/carry in 21-9 win IN Peden Stadium three weeks back...then also held EMU to 3.2 yds/c and 82 yds rushing...CMU hasn't been running it too well and the BGSU run defense is getting better..

This is a winning program and for a team that struggled early sits 3-1 in MAC still....BGSU has won five straight MAC road games dating back to last season when it was 4-0 away from home in the league. Since the 2003 season, BGSU is 10-3 on the road in the MAC....the Falcons lead the MAC in third-down conversions with a 42.9% success rate, which is imperative on the road in being able to stay on the field and keep crowd out of the game...

Also, CMU has developed a kicking issue...they've missed last 3 FG atts and an XP att last week...coaches and fans have really been complaining about this but have no alternatives...another issue for an expected close game...

I think the pts really look good here and I think the Falcons have a 50/50 shot of leaving Mt Pleasant w/ the SU win..


I also have a one unit teaser going from last nights game which includes some weeknight games as well...



Total:

BGSU/CMU UNDER 51 (-103)....1 unit...1.03/1.00



Teaser:

7 Point/5 Team Teaser...1 unit...1.00/4.50
ULL -2
BGSU +14.5
WVU -14
ND -7
Clemson -0.5


GL on your plays 2night gents..

:cheers:
 
Last edited:
Thx Twita and Raider...

Also meant to say that the UNDER looked very good here but I missed a 51.5 and I'm too stubborn to take this worse number.
 
Under indeed looks good. I played this side for 1 unit. I love the writeup... very well done... one of the better writeups with great reasoning.

Line should be around 6 IMO, getting 7 AND the hook is too good to pass up. BG is getting better and your breakdown on their youth explains that and then some. Little too easy to say BG stinks and CMU is good..
 
Small concerns w/ injuries to Briggs and Williams...esp Williams...both are questionable...I'll cross my fingers they go cause no way to tell if they do in college injury reports...
 
Inspekdah said:
Under indeed looks good. I played this side for 1 unit. I love the writeup... very well done... one of the better writeups with great reasoning.

Line should be around 6 IMO, getting 7 AND the hook is too good to pass up. BG is getting better and your breakdown on their youth explains that and then some. Little too easy to say BG stinks and CMU is good..

CMU has some OVER trends, but I think the UNDER would be the right way to go on the TOTAL...

GL bro.
 
late money coming in on the over and has it bumped back up to 51 (the number I missed) and great vig....so I'm gonna bite...


Total:

BGSU/CMU UNDER 51 (-103)....1 unit...1.03/1.00
 
Well under hits, BGSU doesn't.....really frustrated about this one....very annoying game..

Three fluke TD's for CMU ...first two of the game incl pick six...then the 88 yd slant to put em up ten...BG was in complete control of the game at that point...weird shit...

BGSU is still a team to keep your eye on the rest of the year as the young kids getting better...

0-1 Sides to start week....-2.16 units...:hairout:


1-0 on totals...+1.00 :drink:


0-1 Teasers...-1.0 units.. :spank:

Weekly card out later today as I've already made some places w/ the lines a moving...
 
Back
Top