Thinking about the CFP

askias

askias

Pretty much a regular
So, let’s say Ten loses to UGA, and UGA loses to Bama in the SEC title game. That’s three 11-1 teams from the best conference, who only lost to each other. Do they all get in? Presumably a 13-0 Ohio State team joins them? I assume everyone else left out regardless of record?
 
askias said:
So, let’s say Ten loses to UGA, and UGA loses to Bama in the SEC title game. That’s three 11-1 teams from the best conference, who only lost to each other. Do they all get in? Presumably a 13-0 Ohio State team joins them? I assume everyone else left out regardless of record?
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Likely the two teams in the SEC title game although if Georgia were to beat Bama obviously Tenn has the h2h, not sure they'd take Tenn over Bama anyway in that situation
 
askias said:
So, let’s say Ten loses to UGA, and UGA loses to Bama in the SEC title game. That’s three 11-1 teams from the best conference, who only lost to each other. Do they all get in? Presumably a 13-0 Ohio State team joins them? I assume everyone else left out regardless of record?
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If Clemson remains undefeated they are in, no doubt about it. But that is a big if, especially if they have to play us in Charlotte :cool:
 
Well, let’s say undefeated Ohio State and Clemson are in. Then that’s a hell of a choice to leave out Bama, TN or GA. I’m assuming TN gets left out though, for not making the title game.
 
askias said:
So, let’s say Ten loses to UGA, and UGA loses to Bama in the SEC title game. That’s three 11-1 teams from the best conference, who only lost to each other. Do they all get in? Presumably a 13-0 Ohio State team joins them? I assume everyone else left out regardless of record?
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UGA and Alabama would be 12-1. Alabama is in as SEC champion no doubt. Then it's between UGA and Tenn, and UGA gets in with H2H win, plus having played one extra game. Tenn has no chance unless there is some 2007 level chaos and then some. UGA would get in over undefeated TCU IMO, but no chance they get in over undefeated Clemson or Ohio St

You could also have 11-1 Ole Miss with only loss to Alabama. Doesn't mean much now, but sets the table well for the conference for when it moves to 12 teams
 
gps_3 said:
UGA and Alabama would be 12-1. Alabama is in as SEC champion no doubt. Then it's between UGA and Tenn, and UGA gets in with H2H win, plus having played one extra game. Tenn has no chance unless there is some 2007 level chaos and then some. UGA would get in over undefeated TCU IMO, but no chance they get in over undefeated Clemson or Ohio St

You could also have 11-1 Ole Miss with only loss to Alabama. Doesn't mean much now, but sets the table well for the conference for when it moves to 12 teams
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If TCU and/or UCLA goes undefeated it would be chaos. It's one thing to leave an undefeated G5 out, but how could you possibly ration leaving an undefeated P5 team out over a one loss P5 without clearly showing favoritism? We obviously all know it exists but that would etch it in stone.
 
Thanks for getting this thread started. I was chatting with @ProV1Colt last night (amid his celebration) that were due to get a thread started and create some controversy!

Mentioned to a few others as well -- UCLA, with that market, is a more probable p12 team than usual (if undefeated).
 
Before everyone goes gaga over the sec...

We had some wild threads about this back in 2019 (LSU year). Those two teams were fantastic (Bama and LSU).

Tennessee and Bama are nowhere near as good as those clubs. Georgia, we still need to see about.

11-1 is great and all, but even as a closet Tennessee fan at times, they have some warts (as does every team in the top 10).

This is the perfect year for a playoff. Wide stinkin open.
 
B.A.R. said:
Before everyone goes gaga over the sec...

We had some wild threads about this back in 2019 (LSU year). Those two teams were fantastic (Bama and LSU).

Tennessee and Bama are nowhere near as good as those clubs. Georgia, we still need to see about.

11-1 is great and all, but even as a closet Tennessee fan at times, they have some warts (as does every team in the top 10).

This is the perfect year for a playoff. Wife stinkin open.
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:bluehead:
 
B.A.R. said:
UCLA, with that market, is a more probable p12 team than usual (if undefeated).
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So this is an interesting discussion point. How much is that market worth really?

UCLA's home game attendance is a national joke. They can't even be bothered to make the drive to Pasadena and we're gonna expect them to show up in droves to a neutral site bowl game on NYE?

Or is the idea that UCLA's presence in the playoff will reenergize the entire west coast television market? I'm skeptical of this. A few more eyeballs on screens for sure but not to an appreciable degree. The west coast team that moves the needle is SC. But even when SC is moving the needle there isn't the same level of passion/interest that we see for the elite southern and Midwest schools. I don't see everyone gaining a massive interest in UCLA literally overnight.

I do think that given the Pac 12's yearly exclusion from the playoff it makes them something of a sentimental choice. Like, 'if not now, when?"

With that said I think it's highly doubtful that UCLA runs the table which makes this convo moot. But it's an interesting topic nonetheless.
 
B.A.R. said:
Yep. Problem here is both have bad schedules (I'll do a compare and contrast with others when needed).

The Notre Dame win looks worse and worse each week.
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Yes it's going to pose an interesting problem. Unlike UCLA, I feel strongly that OSU/mich will show up to that game in the top 3 and having accumulated style points along the way. The rest of cfb will cannibalize itself as it always does which will leave the door open.

The schedules are atrocious and the big 10 champ game is going to be a real laugher.

But as you know these are powerful programs that bring in enormous interest, attendance, and ratings. I think there's going to be a lot of back and forth about this come December.
 
I don’t think there is any way UCLA gets in ahead of a one loss SEC team or an undefeated Ohio State or Clemson team. The perception, fair or not, is that the best teams in the SEC are first, then the Big 10, then the ACC, and then everyone else essentially.
 
The way I think it would go, is that a B1G and SEC Champ with one loss or less is in no matter what. A one loss ACC Champ Clemson is also most likely in, and undefeated most certainly is. So in this plus the original scenario, you have Alabama, Ohio St/Michigan and Clemson in. Assuming best case for all the other teams (which we know won't happen), you have UGA, Tenn, Michigan/Ohio St, TCU, UCLA competing for the last spot. I think UGA would be ahead of Tenn due to the H2H, and they would be ahead of TCU and UCLA due to SOS and it's going to be really hard for the committee to look past that opener against Oregon. So then you have UGA vs a 1 loss Ohio St or Michigan, and I think UGA gets the nod there too by virtue of having played in a conference championship game.

But I expect there to be further chaos this season. For instance, Tenn loses to UK but beats UGA. Or Ole Miss beats Alabama but loses to Miss St and LSU. Ohio St inexplicably losing to Iowa or some crap. It should be a fun last 6 weeks
 
askias said:
I don’t think there is any way UCLA gets in ahead of a one loss SEC team or an undefeated Ohio State or Clemson team. The perception, fair or not, is that the best teams in the SEC are first, then the Big 10, then the ACC, and then everyone else essentially.
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Winner of osu/mich is in without question.
 
What will happen:

SEC will get 2 of the playoff teams.

What should happen:

SEC champion advances to playoff and the others get some nice bowl games

If SEC got 3 playoff teams then all the other AD's in the country should have to show up at the championship game, take their shirts off, lay down at midfield and then all the SEC ADs get to go out there and take a dump on their chests.
 
gps_3 said:
The way I think it would go, is that a B1G and SEC Champ with one loss or less is in no matter what. A one loss ACC Champ Clemson is also most likely in, and undefeated most certainly is. So in this plus the original scenario, you have Alabama, Ohio St/Michigan and Clemson in. Assuming best case for all the other teams (which we know won't happen), you have UGA, Tenn, Michigan/Ohio St, TCU, UCLA competing for the last spot. I think UGA would be ahead of Tenn due to the H2H, and they would be ahead of TCU and UCLA due to SOS and it's going to be really hard for the committee to look past that opener against Oregon. So then you have UGA vs a 1 loss Ohio St or Michigan, and I think UGA gets the nod there too by virtue of having played in a conference championship game.

But I expect there to be further chaos this season. For instance, Tenn loses to UK but beats UGA. Or Ole Miss beats Alabama but loses to Miss St and LSU. Ohio St inexplicably losing to Iowa or some crap. It should be a fun last 6 weeks
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Best case for Tennessee is beating Georgia.
 
gps_3 said:
The way I think it would go, is that a B1G and SEC Champ with one loss or less is in no matter what. A one loss ACC Champ Clemson is also most likely in, and undefeated most certainly is. So in this plus the original scenario, you have Alabama, Ohio St/Michigan and Clemson in. Assuming best case for all the other teams (which we know won't happen), you have UGA, Tenn, Michigan/Ohio St, TCU, UCLA competing for the last spot. I think UGA would be ahead of Tenn due to the H2H, and they would be ahead of TCU and UCLA due to SOS and it's going to be really hard for the committee to look past that opener against Oregon. So then you have UGA vs a 1 loss Ohio St or Michigan, and I think UGA gets the nod there too by virtue of having played in a conference championship game.

But I expect there to be further chaos this season. For instance, Tenn loses to UK but beats UGA. Or Ole Miss beats Alabama but loses to Miss St and LSU. Ohio St inexplicably losing to Iowa or some crap. It should be a fun last 6 weeks
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2007...
 
AliShaheed said:
Yes it's going to pose an interesting problem. Unlike UCLA, I feel strongly that OSU/mich will show up to that game in the top 3 and having accumulated style points along the way. The rest of cfb will cannibalize itself as it always does which will leave the door open.

The schedules are atrocious and the big 10 champ game is going to be a real laugher.

But as you know these are powerful programs that bring in enormous interest, attendance, and ratings. I think there's going to be a lot of back and forth about this come December.
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If both of our teams go in undefeated, they'll be top 4 in rankings as is...

2006 kind of feel to it...

Obviously, both teams have to take care of business first.

Michigan has MSU, which can go any which way... (blowout, monsoon, who da heck knows). The Illinois game on N19 also will be a battle.

Ohio State obviously has Penn St 029 of this month. With that being said, I watched their defense intently to cap this upcoming game. I was not impressed. If, this OSU Oline is that much better this year, that one should get ugly. I was hoping this would be a good test finally for OSU (lacking since 1h against Irish), but not looking like it.

So, after that rambling, both should come in firing on all cylinders hopefully.
 
AliShaheed said:
So this is an interesting discussion point. How much is that market worth really?

UCLA's home game attendance is a national joke. They can't even be bothered to make the drive to Pasadena and we're gonna expect them to show up in droves to a neutral site bowl game on NYE?

Or is the idea that UCLA's presence in the playoff will reenergize the entire west coast television market? I'm skeptical of this. A few more eyeballs on screens for sure but not to an appreciable degree. The west coast team that moves the needle is SC. But even when SC is moving the needle there isn't the same level of passion/interest that we see for the elite southern and Midwest schools. I don't see everyone gaining a massive interest in UCLA literally overnight.

I do think that given the Pac 12's yearly exclusion from the playoff it makes them something of a sentimental choice. Like, 'if not now, when?"

With that said I think it's highly doubtful that UCLA runs the table which makes this convo moot. But it's an interesting topic nonetheless.
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I agree as far as moving the needle, USC does it to a bigger degree.

My thinking wasn't attendance, but moreso the big TV market on the West Coast. This isn't Eugene, Oregon. Also, with the probable move to the B16, could that have any effect?

UCLA obviously has two big ones left.... this weekend then N19 vs USC... All that being said, in typical UCLA fashion they probably drop one to Arizona (or another mid-level team). Curious on UCLA thoughts @Yanks27Sox9 .
 
B.A.R. said:
I agree as far as moving the needle, USC does it to a bigger degree.

My thinking wasn't attendance, but moreso the big TV market on the West Coast. This isn't Eugene, Oregon. Also, with the probable move to the B16, could that have any effect?

UCLA obviously has two big ones left.... this weekend then N19 vs USC... All that being said, in typical UCLA fashion they probably drop one to Arizona (or another mid-level team). Curious on UCLA thoughts @Yanks27Sox9 .
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Not sure they'd win the P12 title game if they make it
 
For the record, SEC is 14 - 5 in CFB Playoff games. Big 10 is 3 - 5. Until there is a major shift in college football, i have no interest in seeing some of these schools near the playoffs. We saw a 4 team playoff last year and the first round was not competitive @HUNT @B.A.R. The NFL draft speaks volumes for talent, and the SEC has far and away the most.
 
GoDawgs1980 said:
For the record, SEC is 14 - 5 in CFB Playoff games. Big 10 is 3 - 5. Until there is a major shift in college football, i have no interest in seeing some of these schools near the playoffs. We saw a 4 team playoff last year and the first round was not competitive @HUNT @B.A.R. The NFL draft speaks volumes for talent, and the SEC has far and away the most.
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True.

Georgia was far and away the best team.

Alabama was a step behind them

Michigan was a clear #3... would have at least given that Bama team a fight for a half...

8-12 team playoff this year would be absolutely wild...

Each year is different. We are seeing the portal spread some talent out (as is NIL).

The teams that stay cohesive actually have a fighting chance on defense. The others, not as much. That is the side of the ball where all the movement is showing weaknesses.

As these conferences become the "big 2" in the country, we'll see some interesting shifts. The big 10 is aligned money-wise right now to do some interesting stuff. Should be pretty interesting.
 
M.W. said:
Best case for Tennessee is beating Georgia.
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Yeah I didn't word that well. I was using the example in the first post, then saying best case for the non-SEC teams. If Tenn beats UGA, what happens in Atlanta is probably irrelevant. Unless they drop a game on the way and then lose in ATL. I don't think a 2 loss conference champ runner up gets in unless there is total chaos
 
At LSU while OLe Miss has an open date. Schedulemaker didn’t do you any favors. I remember for a couple years they used to give LSU and Bama a bye before they played each other.
 
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M.W. said:
At LSU while OLe Miss has an open date. Schedulemaker didn’t do you any favors. I remember for a couple years they used to give LSU and Bama a bye before they played each other.
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It's a tough schedule this year. 5 true away games, and none of them are pushovers. We still always have the bye date before LSU, as do they. It could be worse. In 2010, 6 of our 8 conference games were against teams coming off a bye, plus. I think they changed the rules after that season
 
B.A.R. said:
My thinking wasn't attendance, but moreso the big TV market on the West Coast. This isn't Eugene, Oregon.
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I don't think that LA or the west coast viewership is going to be drawn to UCLA literally overnight. On NYE, no less. For a game that will be blowout city.

In addition to their big two hey'll have to get past the pac 12 championship game was well.
 
GoDawgs1980 said:
For the record, SEC is 14 - 5 in CFB Playoff games. Big 10 is 3 - 5. Until there is a major shift in college football, i have no interest in seeing some of these schools near the playoffs. We saw a 4 team playoff last year and the first round was not competitive @HUNT @B.A.R. The NFL draft speaks volumes for talent, and the SEC has far and away the most.
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Sure, but a different year this year.
 
RetroVK said:
What will happen:

SEC will get 2 of the playoff teams.

What should happen:

SEC champion advances to playoff and the others get some nice bowl games

If SEC got 3 playoff teams then all the other AD's in the country should have to show up at the championship game, take their shirts off, lay down at midfield and then all the SEC ADs get to go out there and take a dump on their chests.
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This just doesn’t work anymore VK.

It would be a mockery. For instance, let’s say Tulane runs the table….

We have done this long enough and I know your stance.

It will be expanded and for good reason….but some of these teams just don’t have the same weekend. It’s just a fact.
 
B.A.R. said:
I agree as far as moving the needle, USC does it to a bigger degree.

My thinking wasn't attendance, but moreso the big TV market on the West Coast. This isn't Eugene, Oregon. Also, with the probable move to the B16, could that have any effect?

UCLA obviously has two big ones left.... this weekend then N19 vs USC... All that being said, in typical UCLA fashion they probably drop one to Arizona (or another mid-level team). Curious on UCLA thoughts @Yanks27Sox9 .
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P12 has to decide to like football. Period.

Not to go NFL but 2 teams in LA….road team outsells. Must make sense somewhere….economically

That shouldn’t have anything to do with college obviously, but sounds like it may
 
gps_3 said:
It's a tough schedule this year. 5 true away games, and none of them are pushovers. We still always have the bye date before LSU, as do they. It could be worse. In 2010, 6 of our 8 conference games were against teams coming off a bye, plus. I think they changed the rules after that season
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Just like LSU plays Messy St 1st, Aubbie early etc

Just the way it is
 
B.A.R. said:
This
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UCLA likely gets knocked out the discussion this weekend anyway. Not sure they are going to beat Oregon at home.

Bama, Dawgs, Tenny, Bucks, Michigan, TCU, would all handle UCLA quite easily IMO. At best they may be squeak into the top 10, #8 at best, but the line stops there.
 
Have we all matured so much that there are no outrage threads from the first rankings last night?
 
Think Vols being at #1 helps them still have a decent shot to make the playoff even with a loss this weekend - assuming it’s not a beatdown. Win should lock it up. Georgia loss and they may need some help. I’ll be making the trip to Athens - hope I survive
 
Ryno14 said:
Think Vols being at #1 helps them still have a decent shot to make the playoff even with a loss this weekend - assuming it’s not a beatdown. Win should lock it up. Georgia loss and they may need some help. I’ll be making the trip to Athens - hope I survive
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They'd still probably be in but would definitely need UGA to beat Bama in the conference ship
 
Ryno14 said:
Think Vols being at #1 helps them still have a decent shot to make the playoff even with a loss this weekend - assuming it’s not a beatdown. Win should lock it up. Georgia loss and they may need some help. I’ll be making the trip to Athens - hope I survive
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Call me crazy but I think TN wins this weekend. Keep getting told TN has no defense. Held KY to six points. I think the defense is improving weekly and we get pressure on the QB as well as anyone this year. Until someone stops the Pass, run and Hooker taking off with it consistently I can’t bet against them my team or not.
 
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