B16 Week One Discussion Thread...

satnightfever05 said:
Hoping to fade CU early and often until public wakes up that this roster is insanely depleted
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Deon is fooling everyone into thinking he’s changing this program anytime soon. He’s not that good as a HC. This was a hire to generate revenue with his hype.
Deon has made this about himself and his image, “I’m Coming”
The last HC I saw this scripted with his act is Jeff Fisher.
 
Minnesota is -7 vs Nebraska week 1. they closed -14.5 at Nebraska last November so we're talking about 13 points or so of adjustment since then. just feels like too much of an overadjustment to me, interested to hear any thoughts from a power ratings perspective on this
 
survive&advance said:
Minnesota is -7 vs Nebraska week 1. they closed -14.5 at Nebraska last November so we're talking about 13 points or so of adjustment since then. just feels like too much of an overadjustment to me, interested to hear any thoughts from a power ratings perspective on this
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Not like I'm monitoring CFB at this point but I can't think of one post anywhere that has Minny and have seen the world on the Corn

Be curious to see how that winds up come game day
 
Slightly off topic because this is a futures play but....anyone looked at Illinois to win the west? They are +850, schedule is very favorable with no OSU, no Michigan and Wisky and PSU both at home....toughest roadie is @ Iowa...coming off an 8 win season with question at QB sure (ole Miss transfer likely to start) but not like the west has world beaters in it. I think Fickell will be good but not sure he can turn it around in his first season. If not Wisky, I like their chances vs Iowa, Minny etc....BB much better coach than the rest in that division...
 
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KJ said:
Not like I'm monitoring CFB at this point but I can't think of one post anywhere that has Minny and have seen the world on the Corn

Be curious to see how that winds up come game day
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I’m on Minny.
 
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Marsski said:
Slightly off topic because this is a futures play but....anyone looked at Illinois to win the west? They are +850, schedule is very favorable with no OSU, no Michigan and Wisky and PSU both at home....toughest roadie is @ Iowa...coming off an 8 win season with question at QB sure (ole Miss transfer likely to start) but not like the west has world beaters in it. I think Fickell will be good but not sure he can turn it around in his first season. If not Wisky, I like their chances vs Iowa, Minny etc....BB much better coach than the rest in that division...
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Yes, my takeaway after capping the Big Ten was that I think with a fair amount of confidence that either Iowa or Wisconsin wins the West, but Illinois' chances are definitely non-zero and I have them as a comfortable third choice.
 
Another big ten scandal

images
 
BAS offshore portion of site big ten teams got pounded for futures today. OSU was around +900ish got bet down to +700, Michigan was +1050 got bet down to about +800 they took them off the board.
 
B.A.R. said:
Hello all... time is flying, and we are just over two months away from the start of the season. For those that are new here, or haven't followed the threads before, we will start a weekly discussion thread for all things Big Ten each week. Generally, @HUNT and myself alternate the responsibilities each week with an occasional assist from @cubsker when needed as well. The goal is to hopefully lend some helping hands to those handicapping the league week in and week out. Occasional banter between rivals is always encouraged as well. We've been doing this for a lot of years now and I think the thread certainly adds a lot to the site as well as @gps_3 with his SEC Thread.

This initial thread will cover opening week games +anything else you would like to talk about leading up to the start of the season. Usually, I will do an open thread for the summertime, but with totals already posted I figured I would go ahead and start things a bit earlier.

Feel free to chime in regarding...

-Sides
-Totals
-RSW
-Conference Title Odds
-Injuries and suspensions
-Camp notes as we get closer


*There are no week zero games this year


Thursday, August 31st.


Minnesota -7.5 and 47.5 vs Nebraska


Friday, September 1st


Michigan State -14.5 and 52 vs Central Michigan


Saturday, September 2nd


Michigan -36 and 53 vs East Carolina

Ohio State -27.5 and 63 @ Indiana

Purdue -6 and 54.5 vs Fresno State

Rutgers -5.5 and 47 vs Northwestern

Wisconsin -23 and 55 vs Buffalo

Illinois -10.5 and 53 vs Toledo

Penn State -19.5 and 54.5 vs West Virginia

Iowa -21 and 48 vs Utah State

Maryland NL vs Towson


Odds to win the Big Ten Conference

Ohio State 160

Michigan 180

Penn State 600

Wisconsin 650

Iowa 1100

Minnesota 2800

Maryland 4000

Nebraska 5000

Illinois 5000

Michigan State 7500

Purdue 10000

Indiana 10000

Rutgers 10000

Northwestern 10000



This should be quite the interesting year in conference. As they move away from divisions, the West was just starting to make some moves to hopefully even things out a little bit...

What to watch for this year...

-How will Matt Rhule readjust to college. I hold him in high regard a this level and I think he might just be the man to get NU back to a consistently solid team. The additions of the Cali teams next year can only help recruiting for the Huskers.

-Luke Fickell was a damn good hire for the Badgers. He has come a long way from the 7-6 season in his debut at Ohio State. Now, this first year could be rocky with the offense changing a bit. The Badgers have been the same type of team for so long, this could be a bit of culture shock. Allen coming back is one nice piece to start out with. We'll see how the SMU transfer does versus competent defenses. I am a fan, but this is a different level for the most part.

-Fleck is a helluva coach, but he loses a lot of veterans. This will be his biggest challenge so far at Minnesota.

-Can Iowa show some life on offense? Will they enable Brian to cash in on some incentives? They will have a damn good defense again and now have a 'solid' game manager at QB and Erick All will fit in nicely at TE.

-This is Tuckers 4th year in East Lansing. Between recruiting and the portal, these are his guys now. The schedule is pretty tough, but he is making big boy money. Anything less than 7 wins and a bowl appearance is cause for concern.

-Who starts at QB for Ohio State? I am assuming McCord does. I always heard such great things about Devin Brown, so I am curious if he can challenge Kyle a bit? Big year for the defense against the big boy teams. Michigan and Georgia made them look silly with I believe 16 combined 'big plays'. Day is feeling heat, simply to beat Michigan. The offense is loaded as always. Can their trenches do enough in A2 and in the playoffs?

-Allar, in my book, will be a heck of a QB. He has some excellent backs to keep the early pressure off. I don't think this situation could be much better. They very well could win the East (via tiebreakers).

-The questions in A2 will come down to new kickers and who is the breakout receiver? Also, who claims the job opposite of all-American candidate Will Johnson at the corner position. Jim has his BEST Michigan team in my opinion. Can they get over the hump in the postseason? I still think PSU at Noon in November will be their biggest game of the year. Obviously, nothing compares to 'The Game', but this will be huge for who goes to the final game in Indy.

-Can Maryland start strong and STAY strong for once? They simply fade a bit every year as we get deep into the season. Good luck with Gattis. Odd hiring there.




Alright, that should get us going a bit...

I expect immediate contributions from @HUNT @PaintCrew @cubsker @s--k and whoever else would like to chime in about the B16 conference!

-
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I never saw my @. Sorry. I like to keep things short and simple most times on CTG because my mind goes 1000 mph and can't type all of it.

Wisconsin is a darkhorse because they will open up the offense and the D will be solid. Plenty of returners on both sides of the ball.

I think PSU is getting a little too much love. Allar is good, but let's hold the horses on him for a bit here. PSU qb's notoriously under achieve.

Still think it's the Big 2 again barring injuries, Michigan/OSU, and Wisconsin possibly. The big 2 are just too good right now.
 
HUNT said:
You want to make this weekly thread a throuple?

Reno, you, me..each of us weekly.

If not, no hard feelings.
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I'm going to try to be around and post but I don't want to commit to anything because I feel like an asshole when I say I will and then can't due to other obligations (or getting lazy).
 
survive&advance said:
Minnesota is -7 vs Nebraska week 1. they closed -14.5 at Nebraska last November so we're talking about 13 points or so of adjustment since then. just feels like too much of an overadjustment to me, interested to hear any thoughts from a power ratings perspective on this
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Nebraska was without Casey Thompson, which was a gigantic loss compared to the backup tandem of Smothers and Purdy. Probably something like -8 if Thompson was in there, so not near the adjustment as it seems.
 
cubsker said:
I'm going to try to be around and post but I don't want to commit to anything because I feel like an asshole when I say I will and then can't due to other obligations (or getting lazy).
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I get it. It's all gooood.
 
This new TV deal is interesting in the fact we will be seeing a lot more cold weather night games.

Also, unless Fox drops OSU-PSU from the Big Noon spot, we'll be seeing a UM-MSU night game in East Lansing. I never thought I would see the day (neither campuses police department wants any part of a late start such as).
 
B.A.R. said:
This new TV deal is interesting in the fact we will be seeing a lot more cold weather night games.

Also, unless Fox drops OSU-PSU from the Big Noon spot, we'll be seeing a UM-MSU night game in East Lansing. I never thought I would see the day (neither campuses police department wants any part of a late start such as).
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It’s a whole new world…Purdue has 4 straight night games at one point and if OSU gets flexed could have 5 in a row
 
B.A.R. said:
This new TV deal is interesting in the fact we will be seeing a lot more cold weather night games.

Also, unless Fox drops OSU-PSU from the Big Noon spot, we'll be seeing a UM-MSU night game in East Lansing. I never thought I would see the day (neither campuses police department wants any part of a late start such as).
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They’ve never played at night?
 
It seems that MD is likely to start 4-1?

Towson, Charlotte, UVA, MichState, Indiana.
 
carolinablue said:
5-0 is not out of the realm of possibility with that opening slate
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Thanks for reply.

Agreed. I am just giving them a screw up to go 4-1 Was looking at their team total wins.

My local has it @ 7 even money. So they'd need to win 3 more to push, 4 to win. They'll lose against the bolded teams and have to win agst the rest for the win. Probably not doing it, altho at even money I am tempted.

Their last 7 games are @Ohio St, home agst Illini, @NWestern, home agst PennSt, @Nebby, home agst Mich, and @Rutgers
 
bones said:
Thanks for reply.

Agreed. I am just giving them a screw up to go 4-1 Was looking at their team total wins.

My local has it @ 7 even money. So they'd need to win 3 more to push, 4 to win. They'll lose against the bolded teams and have to win agst the rest for the win. Probably not doing it, altho at even money I am tempted.

Their last 7 games are @Ohio St, home agst Illini, @NWestern, home agst PennSt, @Nebby, home agst Mich, and @Rutgers
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Even money on a 7 is excellent value IMO. I just played this on Saturday and every out had 7.5 except a local casino that uses Kambi lines was hanging 7. It was -112 Friday morning but had moved to -124 Saturday, and that was still by far the best price. I would've loved even money! It's just a fantastic schedule. And while I certainly think Michigan will beat them, that is a dream spot for Maryland hosting the Wolverines a week after they play @ Penn State and the week before hosting Ohio State.
 
EFC1878 said:
Even money on a 7 is excellent value IMO. I just played this on Saturday and every out had 7.5 except a local casino that uses Kambi lines was hanging 7. It was -112 Friday morning but had moved to -124 Saturday, and that was still by far the best price. I would've loved even money! It's just a fantastic schedule. And while I certainly think Michigan will beat them, that is a dream spot for Maryland hosting the Wolverines a week after they play @ Penn State and the week before hosting Ohio State.
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That's definitely a spot that worries me this year.

On the plus side, Maryland generally fades late in the season under Locksley. I think that's the really big next step for them. They were slightly better last year (lost November games to OSU and PSU).
 
PaintCrew said:
FYI I hit Fresno/Purdue in week 1. I'll see where it moves later on in the summer and depending on how it moves and the tea leaves from Purdue's training camp I might buy back/hedge/add/etc... but for now....

2* Fresno/Purdue U52.5

Cliff notes:
  • vast majority of a very good Fresno defense is back (7 starters return) and a unit that gave up almost nothing in the air (less than 200 yds a game)....i'd be stunned if this isn't the best unit on the field of either team
  • Haener and literally all of his weapons from the offense are gone (top 3 pass catchers and the top RB). I don't like the QB options for Fresno (either Fife or the UCF transfer from the looks of it)
  • on the Purdue side while the defense is obviously completely retooled but I do like how Walters has pieced it together and would expect it to be capable "enough" to handle Fresno even in game 1 (but more so do to the questions on the Fresno offense)
  • Purdue's offense under Harell it's hard to expect a quick start especially against a D of this caliber right out of the gates. I'm optimistic overall but there's too many new pieces and Air Raid obviously is about executing a small set of plays at a high level....to be at a high level in week 1 with a system new to literally the entire offense is a tough ask
  • Concerns is Purdue's O tempo....some unknowns there yet but i'll keep an eye out. Either way though it's hard to imagine Purdue not having to rely heavily on the running game a good bit with all the new pieces at WR and none proven
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I like the under as well....but can't back Fresno here. Lost all main guys on offense....and when they had weapons but Haener was hurt, Fife went 2-3 and only threw for 2 tds (with 6 ints)....cant scramble much/well either...had 35 net yards on 32 carries (sacked several times obviously).....sure they beat NMex and SJst....but lost to UConn.....Super early start for game 1 on the road....first half under probably worth a look as well....possible add Purdue ML to a parlay to get them close to even money....
 
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bones said:
Thanks for reply.

Agreed. I am just giving them a screw up to go 4-1 Was looking at their team total wins.

My local has it @ 7 even money. So they'd need to win 3 more to push, 4 to win. They'll lose against the bolded teams and have to win agst the rest for the win. Probably not doing it, altho at even money I am tempted.

Their last 7 games are @Ohio St, home agst Illini, @NWestern, home agst PennSt, @Nebby, home agst Mich, and @Rutgers
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I would not be surprised to see 5-0 turn into 7-5 or even 6-6 as the Terps seem to fade every year they have a solid start, but that’s with no factual basis just my perception, and I have a soft spot for MD seeing as I actually went to summer school there.
 
Question for @Marsski ...

What's your read on the OSU offensive line?

I've seen a few reports that are not good.

Thanks in advance.
 
B.A.R. said:
Question for @Marsski ...

What's your read on the OSU offensive line?

I've seen a few reports that are not good.

Thanks in advance.
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Yeah, everyone is focused on the QBs and the lack of separation right now...but the bigger issue lurking to me is the OL.

I'm hearing that they are going to start Fryar (RT), Jones (RG), Hinzman (C), Jackson (LG) and Simmons (LT). Simmons is from SDSU and has apparently won the LT job but I don't believe he has ever played it before...so really there could be an issue protecting the blind side.

I think the starters will get it ironed out but I do think the depth is lacking compared to most years and I worry about that LT spot. They lost 3 NFL draft picks so there should be some growing pains. ND is obviously the first test so it will be interesting to see how it develops during the INDY/YTOWN ST/WKY patty cakes....

I consider OL and secondary to be the biggest areas of possible concern....
 
Marsski said:
Yeah, everyone is focused on the QBs and the lack of separation right now...but the bigger issue lurking to me is the OL.

I'm hearing that they are going to start Fryar (RT), Jones (RG), Hinzman (C), Jackson (LG) and Simmons (LT). Simmons is from SDSU and has apparently won the LT job but I don't believe he has ever played it before...so really there could be an issue protecting the blind side.

I think the starters will get it ironed out but I do think the depth is lacking compared to most years and I worry about that LT spot. They lost 3 NFL draft picks so there should be some growing pains. ND is obviously the first test so it will be interesting to see how it develops during the INDY/YTOWN ST/WKY patty cakes....

I consider OL and secondary to be the biggest areas of possible concern....
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Appreciate the response!
 
Some concern, behind the scenes, Cade not ready for season opener.

Just reporting what a viable insider from UM via Iowa had to say.

He usually knows his stuff.
 
Defense ahead of the offense in Lincoln, though I guess the offense did a little better in today's scrimmage. Gabe Ervin the starter at RB, Grant #2 because he has a fumbling problem. They've been talking up Sims at Qb, but I've heard this type of talk before and it seems more for his ears than ours.

The strides made in recruiting under Frost and into the most recent class appear to be paying off on D now that there's a real S&C/nutrition plan in place with above average front 7 coaching and a real DC. We have some dudes at all three levels of D. New schemes though, so you never know how it will look.
 
Kicker seems to be a problem as well. Bleekrode returns, meh, hoping he gets beat out by a local kid, Alvano, who actually made more FGs at Memorial Stadium last year in the state title game than Bleekrode did all year.

Sounds like they both have sucked the last ten days or so.
 
B.A.R. said:
Some concern, behind the scenes, Cade not ready for season opener.

Just reporting what a viable insider from UM via Iowa had to say.

He usually knows his stuff.
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What actually happened? What did he injure? Probably get by utah state without him
 
B.A.R. said:
I'm not sure myself.

I'll read deeper and try to find out.

Edit: soft tissue injury, apparently.
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Yeah it's weird you dont hear anything. Thanks. I have 2u on their RSW over.

Our jags looked good. Houston looked bad. Think our only worry is serious injury and maybe Titans.
 
Nice thread! My first post here, hope to contribute.....something.

Here is an article when Mcnamara first injured himself.
Kirk Ferentz ‘not alarmed’ after Cade McNamara’s injury at Kids Day open scrimmage
Recent news say they hope he will be back to practice this coming week. Also mentioned was the 1st and 2nd team defenses were beating the o-line and getting to the QB's. But it's early camp so I wouldn't put alot of stock in that.

Fortunately it's a tissue issue, so hopefully we'll be back sometime next week. I can't predict that. We'll take it week by week. But he'll be back. It's not like he broke his leg. That's good news," Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz told BTN's Dave Revsine.

Ya know Parker will have that defense ready. As far as Brian Ferentz, ehhhh, even with the incentives and a seasoned QB not thinking he is going to get there. We'll see.
 
V.K. said:
Nice thread! My first post here, hope to contribute.....something.

Here is an article when Mcnamara first injured himself.
Kirk Ferentz ‘not alarmed’ after Cade McNamara’s injury at Kids Day open scrimmage
Recent news say they hope he will be back to practice this coming week. Also mentioned was the 1st and 2nd team defenses were beating the o-line and getting to the QB's. But it's early camp so I wouldn't put alot of stock in that.

Fortunately it's a tissue issue, so hopefully we'll be back sometime next week. I can't predict that. We'll take it week by week. But he'll be back. It's not like he broke his leg. That's good news," Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz told BTN's Dave Revsine.

Ya know Parker will have that defense ready. As far as Brian Ferentz, ehhhh, even with the incentives and a seasoned QB not thinking he is going to get there. We'll see.
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Welcome aboard.

Love the username!
 
B.A.R. said:
Michigan will likely be down 3 starters in the secondary this weekend.

As of now...
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Likely won't matter vs a group of new wideouts and qb....thought i read an ecu piece their starting safetys were out too. had interest in the under in the game ecu returns most of their d and should suck on o but obviously not setting up as so

Last years line between these teams would of been 17 to 21 imo so quite a massive jump in point spread
 
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