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B16 Week One Discussion Thread...

cubsker said:
I don't disagree with that. Just saying, as Rhule has, that this is a pretty different situation than Baylor or Temple was.
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Temple won 4 games in 2012 under Addazio and 2 games the next year under Rhule.

Baylor won 7 games (including a bowl) in 2016 under Grobe and just 1 game the next year under Rhule.

He seems to like to tear things down all the way and then rebuild from the ground floor up.
 
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That Baylor situation was pretty unique. Mass exodus when whatshisface was fired and Rhule took over.
 
cubsker said:
That Baylor situation was pretty unique. Mass exodus when whatshisface was fired and Rhule took over.
Click to expand...
Why would the players Briles recruited be upset when Grobe retired from his transitional position? Grobe won 7 games AFTER the mass exodus.
 
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M.W. said:
Why would the players Briles recruited be upset when Grobe retired from his transitional position? Grobe won 7 games AFTER the mass exodus.
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Was an absolute dumpster fire when rhule took over. Lost their last 6 games of that season, had 1 commit at the end of the season, everybody getting fired, current players transferring out. That was a complete rebuild.
 
Not saying Deion doesn't care about TCU but w the roster turmoil many not in for spring, TCU seems a bit unwinnable .. think its a good spot to figure out what they got deep down the depth chart .. much rather do there and try to show up competitive week 2 vs Nebraska .. Boulder gunna be electric for first Deion home game not to mention old rivalry .. Huskers in the throws of a rebuild at least makes that game appear winnable, would be a total MONSTER win for them if they pulled it off .... we'll see how TCU starts but I think at some point in H2 it becomes a blood bath .. home fans will def approve taking out all those Natty frustrations on the Deion .. Think the move if were dying to back CU is see if we can get a decently better line vs Neb after a potentially real ugly TCU game .. Nebraska obvi has to show up vs Minny week 1 should be much more prepped for that one than CU .. also quite a way to start going B2B roadies w a real tough conf game and then to boulder .. think the pre-ssn line is 8 or so seems a little scrunched down because of the uncertainty .. if Neb looks competent vs Minny and CU does what I expect and kinda throws the TCU game late testing the depth, etc then think we'll get at least 10 in that one, who knows maybe much more ..
 
KJ said:
He's a very good coach but the amount of love out there for them this season seems like people think he's Knute Rockne
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Nebraska been flirting with the floor of what their program can be for quite some time; I think Rhule gets them on track...would like to try and find out what the ceiling for this program is at this time. At their best, they should be competing for their division every year (though divisions will be no longer if i am not mistaken).
 
horses said:
Nebraska been flirting with the floor of what their program can be for quite some time; I think Rhule gets them on track...would like to try and find out what the ceiling for this program is at this time. At their best, they should be competing for their division every year (though divisions will be no longer if i am not mistaken).
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Correct, for the next few years ('24 and '25) there will be no divisions.

We shall see after further expansion.
 
B.A.R. said:
Correct, for the next few years ('24 and '25) there will be no divisions.

We shall see after further expansion.
Click to expand...

So 16 teams playing uneven schedules with the top 2 at the end in the conference championship?
 
horses said:
So 16 teams playing uneven schedules with the top 2 at the end in the conference championship?
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Correct.

There is a wild scenario where a handful of teams could go undefeated each year.

Each school gets between 0-3 protected rivals.

Very odd situation.

bigten.org

Big Ten Conference Announces Future Football Schedule Formats for 2024-28

Big Ten Conference Announces Future Football Schedule Formats for 2024-28
bigten.org bigten.org


Also, you have "two play" opponents



FB_2425_TwoPlay_v3.jpg


Indiana wins that section
 
horses said:
Yes it is. At least Michigan v USC should be fun if it ever happens.
Click to expand...
Why do you say "if it ever happens?"

That's on the schedule for next year. Michigan visits LA.

UCLA comes to A2 for the first time since the very first pass of Brady's career.
 
B.A.R. said:
Why do you say "if it ever happens?"

That's on the schedule for next year. Michigan visits LA.

UCLA comes to A2 for the first time since the very first pass of Brady's career.
Click to expand...

I say it out of sarcasm because of the ever changing landscape; it's a novelty that eventually will wear thin. College football is about regional rivalries plain and simple.
 
horses said:
I say it out of sarcasm because of the ever changing landscape; it's a novelty that eventually will wear thin. College football is about regional rivalries plain and simple.
Click to expand...
Very true.

The quicker the B16 adds Oregon, Washington etc... The better to have that pacific division...

CFB be 2-4 huge conferences in less than a decade... Just get it done and let's go.

We lost our childhood, unfortunately.
 
B.A.R. said:
Very true.

The quicker the B16 adds Oregon, Washington etc... The better to have that pacific division...

CFB be 2-4 huge conferences in less than a decade... Just get it done and let's go.

We lost our childhood, unfortunately.
Click to expand...

100 percent. Just rip the band-aid off and let's get to it. Oregon/UW destined for B10 (whatever).
 
B.A.R. said:
I'm not sure if that's a protected rival or not?

I can't remember.

This is quite the cluster.
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Never needed to be a protected rival before with them always being in the same division. Not sure it should be but besides Indiana it’s Purdues only other “rival” dating back to the late 1800s. Kind of an entertaining story on the strange trophy we fight over that almost no one knows why. It is I think the 2 closest schools together distance wise.

Some Purdue folk when they expected to beat Illinois for the first time in 5 years or so snuck an actual freaking cannon near by the field (no stadium yet in early 1900s or so) and planned to fire the thing after the win but some Illinois dude found it, stole it, and then hid it for 20 something years.

He donated it back to both schools in 1943 and the “Purdue cannon” became the trophy for the game.
 
FYI I hit Fresno/Purdue in week 1. I'll see where it moves later on in the summer and depending on how it moves and the tea leaves from Purdue's training camp I might buy back/hedge/add/etc... but for now....

2* Fresno/Purdue U52.5

Cliff notes:
  • vast majority of a very good Fresno defense is back (7 starters return) and a unit that gave up almost nothing in the air (less than 200 yds a game)....i'd be stunned if this isn't the best unit on the field of either team
  • Haener and literally all of his weapons from the offense are gone (top 3 pass catchers and the top RB). I don't like the QB options for Fresno (either Fife or the UCF transfer from the looks of it)
  • on the Purdue side while the defense is obviously completely retooled but I do like how Walters has pieced it together and would expect it to be capable "enough" to handle Fresno even in game 1 (but more so do to the questions on the Fresno offense)
  • Purdue's offense under Harell it's hard to expect a quick start especially against a D of this caliber right out of the gates. I'm optimistic overall but there's too many new pieces and Air Raid obviously is about executing a small set of plays at a high level....to be at a high level in week 1 with a system new to literally the entire offense is a tough ask
  • Concerns is Purdue's O tempo....some unknowns there yet but i'll keep an eye out. Either way though it's hard to imagine Purdue not having to rely heavily on the running game a good bit with all the new pieces at WR and none proven
 
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B.A.R. said:
Correct.

There is a wild scenario where a handful of teams could go undefeated each year.

Each school gets between 0-3 protected rivals.

Very odd situation.

bigten.org

Big Ten Conference Announces Future Football Schedule Formats for 2024-28

Big Ten Conference Announces Future Football Schedule Formats for 2024-28
bigten.org bigten.org


Also, you have "two play" opponents



View attachment 74999


Indiana wins that section
Click to expand...
I would have never guessed those would be Ohio St’s protected opps.
 
B.A.R. said:
Correct.

There is a wild scenario where a handful of teams could go undefeated each year.

Each school gets between 0-3 protected rivals.

Very odd situation.

bigten.org

Big Ten Conference Announces Future Football Schedule Formats for 2024-28

Big Ten Conference Announces Future Football Schedule Formats for 2024-28
bigten.org bigten.org


Also, you have "two play" opponents



View attachment 74999


Indiana wins that section
Click to expand...

The 2-play opponents for the LA schools seem totally random; USC was certainly granted no favors (compared to UCLA especially).

Had no idea Illinois and Purdue was a thing.

Seems as if Penn St and Maryland should be a thing.

Gotta get in line if you want to beat Iowa. Guess when every game is 10-7 no one notices. (haha)
 
Bridge1 said:
Not saying Deion doesn't care about TCU but w the roster turmoil many not in for spring, TCU seems a bit unwinnable .. think its a good spot to figure out what they got deep down the depth chart .. much rather do there and try to show up competitive week 2 vs Nebraska .. Boulder gunna be electric for first Deion home game not to mention old rivalry .. Huskers in the throws of a rebuild at least makes that game appear winnable, would be a total MONSTER win for them if they pulled it off .... we'll see how TCU starts but I think at some point in H2 it becomes a blood bath .. home fans will def approve taking out all those Natty frustrations on the Deion .. Think the move if were dying to back CU is see if we can get a decently better line vs Neb after a potentially real ugly TCU game .. Nebraska obvi has to show up vs Minny week 1 should be much more prepped for that one than CU .. also quite a way to start going B2B roadies w a real tough conf game and then to boulder .. think the pre-ssn line is 8 or so seems a little scrunched down because of the uncertainty .. if Neb looks competent vs Minny and CU does what I expect and kinda throws the TCU game late testing the depth, etc then think we'll get at least 10 in that one, who knows maybe much more ..
Click to expand...
I think you’re right on all counts. Will likely fade CU vs TCU and look to play on them the next week.
 
Been slowly working my way through the leagues. This is what I've gotten down on so far this summer in the Big Ten:

Futures
Wisconsin +160/Iowa +350 to win the West. I don't remember the exact amounts but i played this so either result profits the same. Pretty confident the winner will come from these two (although Illinois gave me a slight pause)

Michigan to win Big Ten +200

RSW
Rutgers over 4
Michigan State under 5.5
Minnesota under 7
Indiana under 3.5
Michigan over 10.5

Considering overs on both Iowa and Wisconsin, but holding off for now.

Games
Nebraska +8.5 v Minnesota
Nebraska -8.5 v Colorado

Note: not particularly high on Nebraska this year, but am very VERY down on the two opponents

Iowa -21
Purdue/Fresno under 52.5
Nebraska/Minnesota under 47
PSU/WVU under 54
Rutgers -4.5
 
7ry5zq.jpg
 
B.A.R. said:
I was curious if they would stop farting around and try and save face here.
Click to expand...
Amazing how quickly this was "rec"tified

If you told me two weeks ago that Fitzgerald would be publicly shamed before Gym Jordan for the same thing I'd have lost a lot of money on that
 
B.A.R. said:
Has to be interim IMO
Click to expand...
Sounds like it will be

What an interesting start to the season, I kinda figured they'd beat UTEP at home but now it's a mess that might be best just watching

@Rutgers
UTEP
@Duke

They could be 3-0 or 0-3 depending on how this whole thing plays out, have a hard time buying that even the coaching staff will have a clue
 
PaintCrew said:
FYI I hit Fresno/Purdue in week 1. I'll see where it moves later on in the summer and depending on how it moves and the tea leaves from Purdue's training camp I might buy back/hedge/add/etc... but for now....

2* Fresno/Purdue U52.5

Cliff notes:
  • vast majority of a very good Fresno defense is back (7 starters return) and a unit that gave up almost nothing in the air (less than 200 yds a game)....i'd be stunned if this isn't the best unit on the field of either team
  • Haener and literally all of his weapons from the offense are gone (top 3 pass catchers and the top RB). I don't like the QB options for Fresno (either Fife or the UCF transfer from the looks of it)
  • on the Purdue side while the defense is obviously completely retooled but I do like how Walters has pieced it together and would expect it to be capable "enough" to handle Fresno even in game 1 (but more so do to the questions on the Fresno offense)
  • Purdue's offense under Harell it's hard to expect a quick start especially against a D of this caliber right out of the gates. I'm optimistic overall but there's too many new pieces and Air Raid obviously is about executing a small set of plays at a high level....to be at a high level in week 1 with a system new to literally the entire offense is a tough ask
  • Concerns is Purdue's O tempo....some unknowns there yet but i'll keep an eye out. Either way though it's hard to imagine Purdue not having to rely heavily on the running game a good bit with all the new pieces at WR and none proven
Click to expand...
tailed you on this. FWIW you can find 53.5 pretty widely available on legals. Also, Fresno played relatively slow last year and I would anticipate them slowing it down a bit more based on your second point
 
survive&advance said:
tailed you on this. FWIW you can find 53.5 pretty widely available on legals. Also, Fresno played relatively slow last year and I would anticipate them slowing it down a bit more based on your second point
Click to expand...
Yep spot on.... I should've included that in the notes and absolutely agree
 
satnightfever05 said:
Side has also dropped from Purdue -6 to -4.5 for some reason.
Click to expand...
Yeah that's interesting....probably where it should've been to start. Gun to the head I'd still lean the dog by default here even with all the variance/changes on the Purdue side. As an alum just hoping Purdue escapes with a W somehow... Assuming someone out there just hit the fresno side pretty good to move it?

Also hoping Purdue finishes it's new tunnel somehow before the game or it would be a bit embarrassing for the opener

Somehow this....
1689165472300.png

Is supposed to end up looking like this in the next month and a half....
1689165611734.png
 
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PaintCrew said:
Yeah that's interesting....probably where it should've been to start. Gun to the head I'd still lean the dog by default here even with all the variance/changes on the Purdue side. As an alum just hoping Purdue escapes with a W somehow... Assuming someone out there just hit the fresno side pretty good to move it?

Also hoping Purdue finishes it's new tunnel somehow before the game or it would be a bit embarrassing for the opener

Somehow this....
View attachment 75424

Is supposed to end up looking like this in the next month and a half....
View attachment 75425
Click to expand...
Tiller Tunnel.

Pretty cool.

Side note, is that the only tunnel at the stadium? ;)
 
fd dropped some season long player prop totals today, I think. @B.A.R. any thoughts on Corum over 10.5 rush tds? I HATE taking season long overs, especially for rbs, but this feels a little low even assuming the injury risk is baked in already
 
survive&advance said:
fd dropped some season long player prop totals today, I think. @B.A.R. any thoughts on Corum over 10.5 rush tds? I HATE taking season long overs, especially for rbs, but this feels a little low even assuming the injury risk is baked in already
Click to expand...
Wow, interesting.

The first thought here is that one expects more touches for Edwards...

This is true, but that will be in a variety of ways (running, catching etc).

I can see them giving Don more love in the RedZone to help with NFL scouting...

BUT...

There is a big difference between the two in punching that ball in when the field becomes smaller.

You could also look at Jim saying that 50/50 is the goal in play utilization. That's not happening...

Will it be 43-57? I don't think so. I'd say 46-54 (rushing obv higher) will be the final talleys come seasons end.

Blake is seemingly coming back STRONGER than ever. That's hard to believe given his physique, but that's been the sentiment this off-season.

I see UM averaging around 41-43 ppg again, despite the clock rules shortening running teams games more significantly. The offense overall will be better.

Let's say Blake plays all 12 games, I think it's fair to assume he averages 1 tuddy a game. There will be a few with multiple scores.

Overall, he's played well through pain. He obviously missed the last 1.5 regular season games on a freak injury. The season before he had the bad ankle yet tore it up in the 2h vs OSU.

I would say his workload is less, but it won't be substantially less.

Either way, he'll be prominent in the RZ.

Lastly, they will be MUCH improved in the RZ with having one offensive coordinator this year instead of two. That was a sore spot last year.
 
B.A.R. said:
Wow, interesting.

The first thought here is that one expects more touches for Edwards...

This is true, but that will be in a variety of ways (running, catching etc).

I can see them giving Don more love in the RedZone to help with NFL scouting...

BUT...

There is a big difference between the two in punching that ball in when the field becomes smaller.

You could also look at Jim saying that 50/50 is the goal in play utilization. That's not happening...

Will it be 43-57? I don't think so. I'd say 46-54 (rushing obv higher) will be the final talleys come seasons end.

Blake is seemingly coming back STRONGER than ever. That's hard to believe given his physique, but that's been the sentiment this off-season.

I see UM averaging around 41-43 ppg again, despite the clock rules shortening running teams games more significantly. The offense overall will be better.

Let's say Blake plays all 12 games, I think it's fair to assume he averages 1 tuddy a game. There will be a few with multiple scores.

Overall, he's played well through pain. He obviously missed the last 1.5 regular season games on a freak injury. The season before he had the bad ankle yet tore it up in the 2h vs OSU.

I would say his workload is less, but it won't be substantially less.

Either way, he'll be prominent in the RZ.

Lastly, they will be MUCH improved in the RZ with having one offensive coordinator this year instead of two. That was a sore spot last year.
Click to expand...
18 last year in 10.5 games. Sure, can expect some TD regression and injury risk. but 10.5 feels low to me, i think i'd make it around 12.5? always some variance with TDs but don't feel too concerned with it based on the soft schedule and utilization splits you mentioned
 
survive&advance said:
18 last year in 10.5 games. Sure, can expect some TD regression and injury risk. but 10.5 feels low to me, i think i'd make it around 12.5? always some variance with TDs but don't feel too concerned with it based on the soft schedule and utilization splits you mentioned
Click to expand...
I think it's worth a look on the over.

What's the vig?
 
B.A.R. said:
Wow, interesting.

The first thought here is that one expects more touches for Edwards...

This is true, but that will be in a variety of ways (running, catching etc).

I can see them giving Don more love in the RedZone to help with NFL scouting...

BUT...

There is a big difference between the two in punching that ball in when the field becomes smaller.

You could also look at Jim saying that 50/50 is the goal in play utilization. That's not happening...

Will it be 43-57? I don't think so. I'd say 46-54 (rushing obv higher) will be the final talleys come seasons end.

Blake is seemingly coming back STRONGER than ever. That's hard to believe given his physique, but that's been the sentiment this off-season.

I see UM averaging around 41-43 ppg again, despite the clock rules shortening running teams games more significantly. The offense overall will be better.

Let's say Blake plays all 12 games, I think it's fair to assume he averages 1 tuddy a game. There will be a few with multiple scores.

Overall, he's played well through pain. He obviously missed the last 1.5 regular season games on a freak injury. The season before he had the bad ankle yet tore it up in the 2h vs OSU.

I would say his workload is less, but it won't be substantially less.

Either way, he'll be prominent in the RZ.

Lastly, they will be MUCH improved in the RZ with having one offensive coordinator this year instead of two. That was a sore spot last year.
Click to expand...
Edwards is what would scare me off. He's pretty fucking good. At 10.5 seems he'll have to a game where he gets 3 because I think he'll have some 0s too. Doesn't seem like much margin for error. Edwards and injury are big worries to me.
 
lvmike32 said:
Edwards is what would scare me off. He's pretty fucking good. At 10.5 seems he'll have to a game where he gets 3 because I think he'll have some 0s too. Doesn't seem like much margin for error. Edwards and injury are big worries to me.
Click to expand...
Like I said with Don though...

He'll get his touches both in running and padding game.
 
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