The "unit" needs to be standardized

johnci

johnci

Pretty much a regular
If there was a general gambling forum I would have put this there, but alas, there is none. But this is where I am most active so this is where I will originate this discussion.

I feel there is too big of a discrepancy between posters of what a unit is, and it results in misleading records, sucess, and failure.

For example:
Jpicks is 69-42 +30.44u 62.2%
DuY! is 30-31 +136.9u 49%
Big Al is 88-65-7 +33.68u


So no offense to Duy, but how do you double your bankroll in 5 weeks hitting under 50%? It can only be with either a. a screwy unit system, b. incredibly weighted plays, along with being AWFUL at your lighter plays and very successful at your heavier ones, or c. reckless money management. I have a hunch it is the first.


This is just one example. There are also many people who claim to hit around 50% that are up a decent amount. The truth is, unless you are weighting your plays significantly, juice should wipe out any profit, let alone leave you in the black at all.

I think the only answer is to acknowledge the unit as a percentage of bankroll and lose any notion of it being a monetary amount. Even more important is to scrap the idea that it varies from person to person. If it is a percentage, it should remain constant throughout the community. I propose we fix the value of 1 unit at 1% of a bankroll. Lastly, two ways the unit could be represented are as fixed unit or moveable unit. The first would suggest that the size of the average unit bet remains constant regarless of sucess or failure, the later would obviously mean that success/failure be factored into a bankroll. Examples:

Fixed unit:
Since a unit represents 1% of my bankroll, I start with 100u.
I make a 3 unit bet and win. I now have 103 units. The value of a unit is still 1% the ORIGINAL bankroll, and the profit/loss stays seperate from the bankroll.

Moveable unit:
Same starting criteria, same bet, same results.
With a moveable unit, the value of a 1.03u is now 1%, 1 unit represents 1 percent of the ADJUSTED bankroll. Personally I think this is really confusing and I am not even sure I explained it right.

For those that do not flat bet, I feel this is an ideal way to explain how heavily picks are weighted, and how strong the capper is in their feel for the pick.

Thoughts? Questions? Anyone want to tell me I'm a jerk to think I can boss the community around?:drink:
 
LOL

I do not flat bet. As you can see, being 23 games over .500 but up almost 34 units thats what works for me.

I bet 1-5 units in NBA this year. I have been more wild at times in the past. I don't feel the same way about each and every game. Now, styles evolve and mine could at some point as well.

As far as DuY. He has had some huge...I mean huge wins this year. Most notably the Nuggets at Atlanta game in early December.

I used to use money but that gets things too skewed IMO. It creates problems. My unit this yera is 200 a game. So, the max on a game unless it was truly special would be 1000. Most games range from 2-600.

One thing I will dispute with you is juice. I use pinnacle and I would say I average about -102 in juice. I started using them last year and will never look back. If I was paying 110 per game this year I would be down an extra 7.2 units. Thats huge. In hose regards I also sell points here and there depending on a situation.


Good discussion thread.
 
I didnt read this thread .. but lets say i bet
20 units on a game a win
then bet 1 unit on 3 seperate games each and lose

I am ( 1 - 3 +17 units )
 
abcs said:
I didnt read this thread .. but lets say i bet
20 units on a game a win
then bet 1 unit on 3 seperate games each and lose

I am ( 1 - 3 +17 units )
Click to expand...

First, thanks for the math lesson ;)

Second, you know better son. You need to add juice in. An average ABC's juice is like -127(lol...jk bro) so thats not +17 units.
 
For example Duy! went all in on Denver @ Atlanta for 42 units and also 20 units just a couple of nights ago on??? I forget who but they both cashed out.
When you see something you really like sometimes you can jump on it, although it can make or break your profit.
 
Thanks BAR i had to break it down really simple.
4_17_6.gif

haha The -127 juice is usually on golf plays. Hard to find many good dog lines on those unless u have some inside info.
 
BAR what I was insinuating was that I don't understand how someone could claim 50% AND be up tens of units (there are a couple on the forums that do so) unless they were ALWAYS playing with positive juice or weighting their picks.

Letters,
I don't know many people that play 3 games for 1u and 1 for 20u. I know you were exaggerating to make a point, but what I am trying to do by bringing this issue up is not let a guy who is 15-30 -25u make it up by saying USC and the points for 30u. Unless someone really did have the guff to put 30% of their bankroll on one play, in which case I would buy them a drink and wish them luck!
 
One thing i didnt understand is at an old site i use to post at they had a guy who would bet 50 k on one game and then 100 bucks on another..

I dont want to get into an algebra equation, but i found that humorous to say the last.

Do you know how many 100 buck games you would have to win in a row to equal that 50 k loss??
 
That's my point abcs. I guess I didn't realize Duy put everything on 1 play earlier this year, that explains a lot. If he lost, would he have walked?
 
johnci said:
That's my point abcs. I guess I didn't realize Duy put everything on 1 play earlier this year, that explains a lot. If he lost, would he have walked?
Click to expand...

no way
 
There are only 2 ways I see making money in the NBA. One who Flat bets and hits a high percentage, I.e. Killa who is very good at it. Or Smart money management. I.e BAR, Billivy, Hoping I'm included! =)

As for me, I think I'm too renegade for people to follow! Simple logic though for my actions, I want to make as much money in a season as I can. I put limits on How much I win before withdrawing, and starting a new Bank roll. Do I care, risking all my units on a single game and end my season at mid dec if the pick loses? The answer is NO!

As for the record of I think 30-31, I 'm guilty of betting too many games at times for action, which is not a good thing. However, I'm just lucky enough to win games that I have to win. Capisce?

Hope this answers your question.
 
I bet flat, but that doesn't necessarily mean I like my women flat.
 
I flat bet as well. A unit is 100 for bookeeping sakes. I risk 100 to win 90.90 with -110, however, I don't lay 110 much, and you also have to account for moneylines.
 
for the record if I'm one of the bizarre ones you're talking about, I sell points and almost always have a positive juice number. I do pretty much flatbet though, and my unit is actually less than 1% of my stake.

trying to impose a standard would be ....difficult to say the least. DuY!, killa, BAR...these guys are solid.

if you are concerned about someone's record, pm him and ask.

regarding high juice. Some folks buy points and then claim a 55% winning record. Do the math at -125. They aren't up.

now THAT, in my mind, is far more disingenuous.

:shake:
 
I bet flat (with RARE exceptions, like Miami last week) and here's why.

I put so much fucking time and energy into actually handicapping the games, I cannot spend any more trying to figure out different amounts to bet. It's all routine for me, a play either makes the cut or it doesn't. It takes alot of thinking out of the procedure for me, which is very nice. I can't deal with going 1-1 for the night and losing 3 units. I'd rather count on myself hitting a good percentage during the season, which I know I will.

BTW, if I could say a word about "units." This is obvious, but apparently not, judging by some people on the internet. Anybody who flat-bets and posts units is an idiot. In terms of flat-betting, they're not relevant. Take me for example, I'm 17 games over .500. I could post every play as 5 units, and be up, what, 85 units? Or I could post every play as 10 units, and be up 170 units. It's so ridiculous, it's comical.
 
I guess I should probably state my betting style since my name is in ths thread. (no i don't think anybody was taking a shot at me)

I genrally play 1 unit and 1 unit only. I believe three or 4 times this year I've stepped out and made bigger plays. One was the Nuggets/Hawks game another being a Bulls game recently. As a reader/follower I've always ignored people that have huge units or made a ton of money and have a sub par record. That isn't a shot at anybody who bets that way as I feel that if you can do it, congrats. It's a bit dangerous for those who tail them though. I'm not sure that's there fault though as if you're tailing anybody you get what you deserve.

There are plenty of games where I play more than one unit on a personal level, but from a record keeping standpoint on a website I'd rather just list plays and a won/loss record. The only reason I list units is so that if somebody stumbles across my thread they can have confidence that I'm not playing -150 games all the time.

In the end there is no way to standardize a unit. It's a rough world and if you aren't smart enough to sift through the shit then a gambling forum is the least of your problems.
 
Killa said:
I bet flat (with RARE exceptions, like Miami last week) and here's why.

I put so much fucking time and energy into actually handicapping the games, I cannot spend any more trying to figure out different amounts to bet. It's all routine for me, a play either makes the cut or it doesn't. It takes alot of thinking out of the procedure for me, which is very nice. I can't deal with going 1-1 for the night and losing 3 units. I'd rather count on myself hitting a good percentage during the season, which I know I will.

BTW, if I could say a word about "units." This is obvious, but apparently not, judging by some people on the internet. Anybody who flat-bets and posts units is an idiot. In terms of flat-betting, they're not relevant. Take me for example, I'm 17 games over .500. I could post every play as 5 units, and be up, what, 85 units? Or I could post every play as 10 units, and be up 170 units. It's so ridiculous, it's comical.
Click to expand...

Did I mention before the season started that all my plays are 25 units. That's right folks, I'm up 750 units on the year. :wacka wacka:
 
abcs said:
One thing i didnt understand is at an old site i use to post at they had a guy who would bet 50 k on one game and then 100 bucks on another..

I dont want to get into an algebra equation, but i found that humorous to say the last.

Do you know how many 100 buck games you would have to win in a row to equal that 50 k loss??
Click to expand...

"the factor"?...lmao
 
one thing I wanted to chime in... if you are a dime bettor a play for you is not 10 units... your units is 1000... feel better that that is off my chest.
 
I dont have a problem with someone like DuY posting an accurate record that doesnt have non standardised units. It truthfully represents the way they go about things, and as far as any tailer goes, that should be what you want to know. If someone credible (ie, non monopoly money user) is up large with an average record, then that clearly telegraphs to anyone likely to tail that this is a person to 'respect' when they go out on a limb.

I dont tail, so I dont care what record (w/l or units) people post. Ultimately what one's acct balance is is really only relevant to oneself, and having lost or won yesterday guarantees nothing about today. I look for peoples thoughts to see if I've missed something myself, and its what I offer in return. Its my experience that that is the benchmark of someone who is really likely to be doing better than worse.
 
I don't want anyone to think I was calling anyone out in this thread. I just think that it would be to our collective advantage if we are all operating in the same language. I think the term "unit" in the way it is being used around here and C**ers can lead to some gray area, that's all.
 
what would it matter anyways we are the only ones at heart that honestly knows how to manage our bankroll. I for one go with my fok it all in like im at a holdem table or just place a 100 wager the bottom line is you are the one that has to hit the confirm button on whatever amount you wager bol to all ....by the way big al my bowl games are 10 times forgettable
 
I'm hitting at under 50% on the year and I'm up 20 something *units* on the year.

My unit size is propotional to my starting bankroll which was 50u.

So my *unit* size would be 2% of my starting bankroll.

I vary my bet size depending on how strong I feel the play is.

There have been times when I have bet up to 30% of my bankroll on one play. Although my average is around 4%-5%.

I'm probably not the most solid person to follow here and I don't claim to be, but I guess it all depends on what works for you.

I believe there are many ways to get to your season goal and in my case this can involve fairly large plays.

My goal is to be up 50u which is basically a double on my original investment.

If you really want to be structured in the unit size department, the best way to do that is to cite the size of your unit compared to your original bankroll.

Great discussion. I'm happy to be hitting <50% and be on track to double my bankroll. Works for me. o_0
 
Bottom line, everybody needs winners... either you are "a duy", "a killa" or "a tru"

I believe it's hard to tail people who usually bet more on a game rather than those who bet flat for every single game no matter how strongly he feels about it.

Important thing is you should know how to manage your bankroll, if duy bets 100 grand on a game, it doesnt mean that you should do the same.

On the other hand, if i bet a 100 grand on a game, you should do the same :D

Interesting thread :D
 
I think its rather simple to figure this out. Reading Duy's threads(just an example) I know in my eyes he is sort of a heavy hitter so when he likes it he bangs it. You start standarizing units and you are gonna have people with all decimal unit plays which makes plays look inconsequential IMO. For me I have to post Units cause of the amount of plays to sort of differentiate(sp?) strength.You probably arent tailing someone you read for a week say. So through the time reading his threads you should get a feel for his style. I dont care what anyone bets but just by reading I know how they bet. like bet said most of the time its mor about did I miss something .. I know Killas deal , JPicks, redbearde, BAR's , mistaflava , etc...its really not complicated to pickup up one's style. Hell we all know I will be playing everything possible as will Fondy . However I tell everyone in recent years my units never have represented 100$ they are less. Still there are people who make 1 play a day that is bigger then my 20 play cards...its irrevelant..if the goal is information...

Simply figure out said cappers style and then the unit really doesnt matter much...you have everything from 10 dollar units to thousand dollar units.....If you see a 1 unit play for me you know itts minimal if you see 5 you know its basically a max bet...

personally record keeping is useless but you do it so people dont ask that question.....
 
first off great thread... im new here and have really just started to really get into sports gambling and capping my own games. one problem i am running into is that i see myself hitting a fairly decent percentage of my games (56%) but because of my money management i lose money or just about breaking even. i understand the concept of the unit as being something that basically help someone manage their money but for some reason i just can't get this down. does anyone feel it is better to flat bet or can give me some advice to manage my money better?
 
phatprep - I personally dont see why its not possible to separate plays of different strengths, but if someone cant, then flat betting is definitely for that person.

I dont have that problem, so I dont subscribe to flat betting.
 
yea crimes the weird thing is is that the plays i feel strongly havent been hitting and my lower plays have been doing well. and its been like that for the past month or so. maybe its that im just not keeping my cool because prior to early december i was rolling pretty well and making more money.
 
I flat bet, but my unit is odd in that last year it was $50, then this year since my bankroll was higher, it was up to $75. Usually I bet that, but if I tail Phillyroom, Duy, BillyIvy, or BAR, I use a percentage of their bet.
Phillyroom recently bet $750 on a team, and I don't have a BR like philly so I took 1/3 of that or 250. so that's one area that's changed for me.

However, with the beating I've taken the last 2 wks, I'm gonna go flat betting for a while.
 
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