The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 07 Lines & Market Plays

T

TheSportsCruncher

Pretty much a regular
2 Units:

APP -8.5 @ ULM

1.2 Units:

PSU +17 @ OSU (-115)
UNC -14 vs WAKE
ALA -3.5 @ TA&M
HOU -16 @ TULN
UNM -3.5 VS HAW (-115)

.6 UNIT:

BC +15.5 @ CLEM
WYO +7 VS NEV
IDAHO +12.5 @ TROY
KSU +4 VS OKLA
AFA PICK @ CSU
TTU -27 @ KU
IOWA -2.5 @ NW
ASU +6.5 @ UTAH (-115) Not a ton of value, I'm just making it a point to spite fade Utah right now, lol.
VAN +6.5 @ SCAR (-115)
STAN -5 VS UCLA

Had a couple move against early, but this is what I played.
 
.6 Unit: UCF +21.5 @ Temple

Please don't pull a UTEP style roll over, UCF. If any team is poised to do it, it's UCF, unfortunately, lol. Still, a lot of points for a tepid Temple offense.
 
Utah always a better dog than a favorite with their style of play. They like to make a game as "ugly" as possible, run the football, play good D and rely on their special teams to keep games close, which is always good when you are the dog, typically not so much as a (TD or more) favorite.

GL and congrats on a fine season.
 
Thanks, TSE (I know a few of you, not sure who handles the official posting here -- GS?). This is a good match up for ASU, who is best at defending the run, and are starting to find balanced success with the offense right now. Sure hope RB Richards ends up being good to go, with the incredible depth woes ASU has had at that position this year.
 
you like the AFA boys this week? was leaning them. Also was leaning stanford but didn't pull the trigger. I like seeing you on Iowa was watching that line but I love betting on those guys.
 
I like Air Force a little, yeah. Neither team playing particularly well, but CSU's run defense has been mostly pathetic so it's a good match up for AFA.
 
This is Pez. We try and keep GS contained to all things Texas related. LOL!

Just read this: Graham said he got a good prognosis on RB Demario Richard. Does expect him to play this week.
 
Curious why you like Iowa, they are missing a bunch of players (top DL, WR, TE, both tackles, and top RB). Northwestern lost their CB last game, but otherwise are pretty healthy. They ran into a buzzsaw last week, but I think they will rebound.
 
ArbyMelt said:
Curious why you like Iowa, they are missing a bunch of players (top DL, WR, TE, both tackles, and top RB). Northwestern lost their CB last game, but otherwise are pretty healthy. They ran into a buzzsaw last week, but I think they will rebound.
Click to expand...

Hey Arby, I don't get too concerned about non-QB injuries until they start adding up at one position. Canzeri is their top RB, but they'll be thin on their rotation if Daniels Jr. doesn't end up playing. It is of some concern, but not a big one, as QB Beathard is a runner as well. Iowa's run offense is the only match up that favors the offense for either team. I project both teams dead even at passing at 6.2 ypp. All that being said, it's one of my smallest plays of the week.
 
I agree with you on fading Utah for now.

Not sure what it was, but they looked to me like their tank was about empty on Saturday night. I didn't see their usual emotional high and bounce to their step. They looked like a tired team. I didn't expect that coming off a bye.

I'm always leery of a team coming of a "biggest game in history of the program" type game and that's how they were billing that game with Cal, with Gameday there, climbing up the polls, lots of patting on the back, etc.
 
Here's muh grabs on the totes:

2 Units:
WAKE @ UNC OVER 46.5
TULSA @ ECU OVER 74
AUB @ UK OVER 50

1.2 Units:

USC @ ND OVER 60
VT @ MIA OVER 52 (though worried line might drop a little before rebounding up later)
APP @ ULM UNDER 48
MISS @ MEM OVER 68
KENT @ MASS OVER 56
PITT @ GT UNDER 50
MIZZ @ UGA OVER 46
MRSH @ FAU UNDER 54.5
BOISE @ USU OVER 47
WKU @ UNT OVER 68 (probably try for middle at half if above pace as WKU piles up points first half, doesn't add much with run game 2nd half)

.7 Unit:

ALA @ TA&M Over 53

.6 UNIT:

HOU @ TULN UNDER 63.5
SDSU @ SJSU UNDER 49
ARIZ @ COLO OVER 66
HAW @ UNM UNDER 50
UTSA @ USM OVER 60
NEV @ WYO OVER 51.5
CHAR @ ODU UNDER 48.5
WVU @ BAY OVER 78
PUR @ WIS OVER 48
USF @ CONN UNDER 48.5
UNLV @ FRES UNDER 55

.5 UNIT:

AFA @ CSU OVER 54
IOWA @ NW OVER 40
ARST @ SOAL UNDER 58.5 (TUESDAY NIGHT LOOSE ACTION, LOL)
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: BUFF +7 @ CMU (+105 5D)

I'll back the team that should have the better day running the ball. Buffalo's offense has been pretty stagnant, so hopefully facing the weakest run defense they've seen this year gives their offense some good 3rd down flexibility. Buff's pass defense has been okay except against BGSU, and their definitely not alone in that department. BGSU now has my # ranked pass offense. CMU is none too shabby at 37th, but they've actually averaged -0.8 ypp less than their opponent's averages.
 
I'm on Ohio and Buff as well. I think both of the directional opponents may be a bit flat after last week's exciting rivalry game.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
Hey Arby, I don't get too concerned about non-QB injuries until they start adding up at one position. Canzeri is their top RB, but they'll be thin on their rotation if Daniels Jr. doesn't end up playing. It is of some concern, but not a big one, as QB Beathard is a runner as well. Iowa's run offense is the only match up that favors the offense for either team. I project both teams dead even at passing at 6.2 ypp. All that being said, it's one of my smallest plays of the week.
Click to expand...

Their QB is banged up. But he says he'll play, at least for now. Keep an eye on that. After the hit that injured him he only threw 3 passes, completing a shovel pass for 4 yards. Interesting that the line shot up when the sports hernia rumors were shot down, but he didn't exactly says he was healthy.
 
ArbyMelt said:
Their QB is banged up. But he says he'll play, at least for now. Keep an eye on that. After the hit that injured him he only threw 3 passes, completing a shovel pass for 4 yards. Interesting that the line shot up when the sports hernia rumors were shot down, but he didn't exactly says he was healthy.
Click to expand...

Thx for the update. Could be troublesome for my small Iowa and Over 40 plays.
 
A final look at last week's College Football Market Cheat Sheet (PM for info. on getting it early).

Did very well against the market totals, being a median 1.2 points sharper than the openers on every game. Recommended spread investments (made at time of BOL openers) averaged a 3% value gain versus the openers, while totals averaged 4.5% value gain versus the openers. Will post my record later, but once again sides did very well, while totals were down a large amount of hairy high-scoring games for the first time this season.

MHK7Zt5.png

OIc9VSs.png
 
I can only guess that the reason the MISS@MEM total has come down is because of MISS' RB Walton's "?" status, because I'm showing pretty good line value on the Over here. I'm going to add another unit on Over 64.5, anticipating the line to go up come Saturday, then buy some of it back for a middle
 
Same kinda' deal with BSU @ USU, I reckon. BSU RB McNichols "?" and the line has come down a point. My profile on this one is just an Under lean, so I'll go with the line value which is pretty solid on the Over. Buy another unit at Over 46 and hope to get at least 48.5 on the buy back, with a good chance of it going higher, according to my numbers.
 
I am seeing up to 5 wyoming defenders out? (concussions etc) Do u see that and still like them? thx
 
mrob said:
I am seeing up to 5 wyoming defenders out? (concussions etc) Do u see that and still like them? thx
Click to expand...

Looks like 2 DBS (not as important against NEV), and an LB and DE. Like I said above to Arby, I usually don't care about non QB injuries unless they start to stack up at a position. WYO is not one of my strongest plays, but the pure line value is almost worthy of a play just a touch shy of 10%, they are at home, they've been playing better since the horrific start to the season (having QB Coffman in there helps) and they've covered for me the last two weeks.
 
Thx, Rob.

Well, buying those extra units of Over already made a big difference just, lol, with MEM up to 68.5 and USU up to 48.5. They might have been dummied down a little to begin with, but Right Angle Sports released them both today so "poof" - instant line value on those Over investments.

RAS also released WVU @ BAY Under, but I'm definitely against him on that one, though it wasn't one of my stronger plays. Now that it's at 75.5, though, I'll buy a full unit on the Over now, as it's almost certainly going to finish in the high 70s, if not 80, to set up a partial buy back/middle. One service (with a break even record this year) driving down the total 2.5 points won't hold, the rest of the market will push it back up, truuuuuust me.
 
Going to double down another one against RAS steam. Adding a unit on APP @ ULM Under 50 to go with the Under 48. I think this line will drop back down into the 47 range, covering some nice key numbers in the process. ULM has a bottom five pass offense, bottom 15 run offense, but a decent defense. Appalachian St. figured to be a pretty good team returning more starters than any other team this year, and they've certainly been living up to that. Their defense has been pretty good, though oddly they had their worst defensive game against WYO at home in the rain storm. That result is somewhat skewed though, by the fact that WYO had been missing their starting QB prior to that game. ULM rates to struggle on offense all, day, long. They couldn't muster much O. against Tulsa last week, who has a bottom five defense. APP St. games in which they've dominated their opponents have followed a pattern -- APP gets out to a comfortable halftime lead, then slows down the game running the ball a lot in the second half, while their defense continues to limit the opponent, all leading to little second half scoring. The spread on this game opened lower than it did for APP against the other inferior teams they've played, but that was a mistake, as I project APP to win by a healthy 20 point margin.

pCalvx7.png
 
Got to figure BC has a great model to win in the ACC with it's defensive prowess, but offensively they really relic a JV Division 2 program in the great state of Massachusetts. Perfect example, put Flutie in the game to game the 1 yard with a QB keeper, while their main running QB is on the bench? Then they get the ball back after fumble, get first down and run Dive up the middle with no TO? Wow, I replayed it looking for HC's decision or offensive Coordinator, knowing that they had no Time out left and you can't spike the ball with less than 3 seconds. Total dysfunctional offense...
 
Yeah, if BC gets that last minute touchdown it's a +2 unit swing for me, while a FG + OT gives me a shot at a +4 unit swing if BC wins by 3. I couldn't believe it when the live box showed BC with the ball at the goal line and then the next thing you know it says it's a final. My eyeballs probably jumped halfway out of my head.

It's true also that it's a terrible match up for BC in this game with Clemson having my #1 rated run defense. I'm definitely going to be play the Under, I'm just with what is probably a legion of sharps holding their breath waiting for a 37 to pop up, lol.
 
Adding for 1 Unit: SYR @ UVA Over 53.5

Syracuse's pass defense has been pretty terrible this year, so look for Virginia to try and exploit that with a higher than usual % of pass plays throughout the game. Syracuse's passing offense has a match up advantage as well. Look for this game to be perhaps surprisingly high scoring like last week's SYR @ USF game.
 
SC do you have any thoughts on Wash St. this week? I figured that to be a DD spread closer to 14. See they have hit the over in the game but side has stayed right where it opened.
 
Adding for 0.5 unit: Marshall -6 @ FAU

Not impressed with FAU chundering the storm-delayed lead against a bad Rice team. Marshall may be on the road to finding it's identity after so much talent graduated. Works as a bit of a hedge on the Under that is picking up good value now. If this one goes Over I think it's highly likely Marshall is covering.
 
Timh said:
SC do you have any thoughts on Wash St. this week? I figured that to be a DD spread closer to 14. See they have hit the over in the game but side has stayed right where it opened.
Click to expand...

My numbers like ORST to keep it within a score, but I'm reluctant to bet the Beavers with Collins being such a terrible passer.
 
Looks like we can thank Billy W. for the Over bump on the AUB@UK game today, though I was kind of surprised the total had only gone up 2 points from the opener until that. I have 2.4 units on the Over 50, going to hedge/middle 0.9 unit on the Under 56 (-105 5D).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

scarf31
Scarf 2019 Week 3 CFB
Replies
39
Views
917
survive&advance
survive&advance
RetroVK
time to post my week 12 card so far
2
Replies
86
Views
4K
Timh
Timh
RetroVK
time to post my week 6 card so far
Replies
49
Views
2K
RetroVK
RetroVK
RetroVK
time to post my week 5 card so far
2
Replies
50
Views
2K
RetroVK
RetroVK
ksimpsc
ksimpsc week 10
2
Replies
80
Views
2K
ksimpsc
ksimpsc
Back
Top