time to post my week 12 card so far

[RetroVK]

Miami OH ur big play tonight?

Yes. That is the one. NIU has completely wrapped up the division title.

Miami Oh at 4 wins with Ball State at home to end the year.

The conference currently has just 5 bowl eligible teams.

Miami Ohio is a senior team which had aspirations this year that they didn't quite meet.

Seems like a no-brainer ... niu doesn't need it, miami oh does need it, conference needs it.

 

[RetroVK]

At first glance I liked UCLA mostly due to motivational and a variety of other intangible factors.

But I think what you said about Helton reverting back to the power run game makes a lot of sense and that seems like a good matchup against UCLA's charman soft run defense.

USC is the quintessential buy low/sell high team and you're getting a short price to play the better team here.

I want to play SC and I know Helton is coaching for his job but worried that his players don't really give a shit.

Would love to hear your thoughts on this game.

I think you have touched on a lot of it.

USC with ND on deck but obviously not a lookahead .. but that means they probably need this one for bowl eligibility.

I think, like you, that they match up decently and their defense is by far the best unit on the field in the game.

They are hard to trust and so is Helton ... and I think Helton is gone regardless but maybe he still has a shot. No idea how the kids feel about him but choking last weeks game did him no favors.

 

[RetroVK]

Any concerns on Buffalo line change from -1.5 to +3

Yes. But have to do what I do.

 

[RetroVK]

Don't see it posted .. but have UTEP at 7 and 7.5. For thread purposes I will grade at 7

 

[RetroVK]

Is Wyoming gonna be a big play?

I handicapped the game at least three times because i want to back wyoming but my average from the three separate caps was 2.33. Can't do it.

 

[AliShaheed]

They are hard to trust and so is Helton ... and I think Helton is gone regardless but maybe he still has a shot. No idea how the kids feel about him but choking last weeks game did him no favors.

I think a lot of it comes down to who will be available and will SC be willing to buy Helton out? SC's finances aren't in very good shape right now.

But a loss to UCLA will prob force SC's hand to get rid of him especially with a guaranteed ass whipping against ND the following week.

 

[RetroVK]

Buffalo game obviously didnt go as planned.

Miami benefited from some pleasant officiating but we did factor that in.

 

[SIGO]

Great call on Miami-Oh. Thanks, RetroVK.

 

[geopackiv]

Debbie

 

[Ryno14]

Good hit, VK.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good job.

 

[MNGophs]

GT -5 now...still no love for this team

 

[RetroVK]

GT -5 now...still no love for this team

Ya. Market seems to hate them while they will outgain their opponents by a thousand yards this year

 

[pressitup]

Buffalo game obviously didnt go as planned.

Miami benefited from some pleasant officiating but we did factor that in.

I was listening to "Follow the money" in the car. They said Will Hill took a $100k bet on Buffalo last night.
I guess, you don't sweat it if you can do it, but to be out of it by the 2nd qtr, ouch.

 

[pressitup]

Thanks on MOH btw

 

[Rusty Trombone]

UTEP gonna make your card? Biggish perhaps?

 

[M.W.]

I guess, you don't sweat it if you can do it . . . .

$100k for him is like $10k or $1k or $100 for others. In other words, he's probably sweating it.

 

[RetroVK]

UTEP gonna make your card? Biggish perhaps?

Was posted in post #54

It won't be big but it I do like it quite a bit. Better team getting points makes me a sucker every time.

 

[Timh]

VK - I noticed UConn ran for 365 yds vs. SMU last week, when I checked that box score. I would think Memphis ought to be able to run at will here. I think Memp D definitely vulnerable to the pass but not sure SMU can take full advantage. I figured about 150 plays in this one. Just not sure about a play on this game, so will probably lay off. Do you have any thoughts here?

 

[RetroVK]

VK - I noticed UConn ran for 365 yds vs. SMU last week, when I checked that box score. I would think Memphis ought to be able to run at will here. I think Memp D definitely vulnerable to the pass but not sure SMU can take full advantage. I figured about 150 plays in this one. Just not sure about a play on this game, so will probably lay off. Do you have any thoughts here?

Prior to uconn, i would likely be on smu but the uconn rush numbers last week gave me pause. 40 second half points to that team is disgraceful. So then have to ask, how much of that was a one game anomaly for smu?

 

[booksbestfriend]

Did SMU yank starters? I suppose the number of defenders with tackles would be a good indicator. They built a substantial lead. Maybe just rested thinking it was in the bag. Prior, UCONN tallied yardage, but never scored like that.

 

[RetroVK]

VK - I noticed UConn ran for 365 yds vs. SMU last week, when I checked that box score. I would think Memphis ought to be able to run at will here. I think Memp D definitely vulnerable to the pass but not sure SMU can take full advantage. I figured about 150 plays in this one. Just not sure about a play on this game, so will probably lay off. Do you have any thoughts here?

As there is nothing remotely close to that result on rush defense the whole year, I think it is fair to throw it out without considerable attrition to account for it timh.

 

[RetroVK]

Did SMU yank starters? I suppose the number of defenders with tackles would be a good indicator. They built a substantial lead. Maybe just rested thinking it was in the bag. Prior, UCONN tallied yardage, but never scored like that.

I doubt it. They struggled stopping them the whole day and i dont think they ever extended enough to do it. Maybe defense was flat. I am choosing to not put too much into that game. (Friend said that phrase to me the other day about Buffalo).

 

[Timh]

Thanks for your thoughts, I will likely watch a little and see if anything intriguing in the way of half time oppty shows up.

 

[s--k]

I don't think you have it. What did you think of the Georgia St - App State total?

 

[RetroVK]

I didnt line/total it sk

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck all day Debbie.

 

[RetroVK]

Adds

Texas State 22.5
Hawaii -6


I have two big leans in the Ole Miss at Vandy game but don't want a lot invested there so will narrow down to which I like better later or wait for halftime. Intriguing "not football" game.

 

[s--k]

How much of Texas State is what Troy just faced and has on deck vs positive attributes of Tex St?

 

[RetroVK]

How much of Texas State is what Troy just faced and has on deck vs positive attributes of Tex St?

It's a mixture. Texas State rush defense matches up "well enough" in my estimation and that is the key match up for covering the spread. Offense will need to find a couple scores most likely but hopefully not much more than that at this number if the handicap is right. They have been a pretty competitive team the last month. And while they did nothing offensively against app state, the 468 yards they gave up is less a bad sign due to the same lack of ability to move it on offense. I don't think Troy D as currently configured is as good as App State (particularly in pass stop), so I would expect Texas State to move it better in this game. Also that Troy pass D might give the bobcats a chance at the backdoor if needed late. Division will be on the line next week so Troy might be just wanting to get through this game, especially given (as you mentioned) the ULL - GaSouthern lead in to this game. Seems like a good spot.

With that said .. Troy trucked them 62-9 last year and while this Troy is a far lesser version, and this Texas State is a better version, there are obviously some mismatches probably still exploitable by the Trojans. 641 yards yielded in that one. Ouch.

 

[RetroVK]

RE UAB defense ...

It is good. I am not selling it short ... but I wanted to show what I meant earlier in the thread with regard to UAB offenses faced. It should be noted that UAB consistently holds opponents under their average but wow at the competition level of opposing offenses.

72nd offense Coastal Carolina 463 (avg 398)
79th Tulane 355 (avg 392)
125th Charlotte 263 (avg 315)
87th Latech 255 (avg 379)
122nd Rice 186 (avg 324)
20th UNT 400 (avg 469)
126th utep 120 (avg 311)
130th UTSA 220 (avg 242)
90th USM 165 (avg 376)


Tamu 24th in total offense playing against SEC defenses, these bad offenses above are against CUSA defenses for the most part.

 

[bones]

Baylor now + 1.5. I did not feel comfortable betting them @ minus. Now I will do so. Waco is a good home field advantage imo

 

[RetroVK]

Ya crossed the zero. TCU will finally show up. They hate my money.

 

[Timh]

TCU really has struggled to run the ball effectively lately, and I'm just hoping the Baylor D is not the answer to get them revived today.

 

[takeit]

Hope you took Utah when you got my text.

 

[RetroVK]

Frustrating day

 

[Timh]

Yep