The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 07 Lines & Market Plays

I'm assuming with the line opening at -6.5 that QB Sudfeld is going to be playing for IND, as backup Diamant is out. Assuming that, I like the Over for a bit at this #.

Adding for 0.5 unit: RUTG @ IND Over 61.5
 
As I said earlier in the week, WKU's pattern against weaker teams is to boat race them in the first half, and then the scoring slows down in the 2nd half as they slow down and run, and not very effectively. They don't get much weaker than UNT, so adding WKU -20.5 1st half (-115) for a half unit and Over 39 for a half unit. WKU has averaged almost 41 points on their own in the first half their last few games. UNT has averaged 7 first half points against FBS opponents this year. Sounds about right for tonight. I probably won't be able to hedge the game Over at half with the second half Under. Hopefully it will need less than 28 in the second half.
 
The week's action...so far, lol.

2 Units:

APP -8.5 @ ULM
WAKE @ UNC OVER 46.5
TULSA @ ECU OVER 74
AUB @ UK OVER 50 (& .9 unit on Under 56 hedge/middle)

1.2 Units:

PSU +17 @ OSU (-115)
UNC -14 vs WAKE
ALA -3.5 @ TA&M
HOU -16 @ TULN
UNM -3.5 VS HAW (-115)
USC @ ND OVER 60
VT @ MIA OVER 52 (though worried line might drop a little before rebounding up later)
APP @ ULM UNDER 48 & Under 50
MISS @ MEM OVER 68 & Over 64.5
KENT @ MASS OVER 56
PITT @ GT UNDER 50
MIZZ @ UGA OVER 46
MRSH @ FAU UNDER 54.5
BOISE @ USU OVER 47 & Over 46
WKU @ UNT OVER 68

1 Unit:

TCU @ ISU OVER 74.5
FLA @ LSU UNDER 47
CIN @ BYU OVER 64
SYR @ UVA OVER 53.5
BC @ CLEM UNDER 38 (-120)

.7 UNIT:

ALA @ TA&M OVER 53

.6 UNIT:

HOU @ TULN UNDER 63.5
BC +15.5 @ CLEM
WYO +7 VS NEV
IDAHO +12.5 @ TROY (& 0.5 UNIT AT +13.5)
KSU +4 VS OKLA
AFA PICK @ CSU
TTU -27 @ KU
IOWA -2.5 @ NW
ASU +6.5 @ UTAH (-115) Not a ton of value, I'm just making it a point to fade Utah right now, lol.
VAN +6.5 @ SCAR (-115)
STAN -5 VS UCLA
WIS -19.5 VS PUR
UCF +21.5 @ TEM
SDSU @ SJSU UNDER 49
ARIZ @ COLO OVER 66
HAW @ UNM UNDER 50
UTSA @ USM OVER 60
NEV @ WYO OVER 51.5
CHAR @ ODU UNDER 48.5
WVU @ BAY OVER 78
PUR @ WIS OVER 48
USF @ CONN UNDER 48.5
UNLV @ FRES UNDER 55
MSU @ MICH UNDER 41.5


.5 UNIT:

AFA @ CSU OVER 54
IOWA @ NW OVER 40
ARST @ SOAL UNDER 58.5 (TUESDAY NIGHT LOOSE ACTION, LOL)
WKU -20.5 1ST HALF VS UNT (-115)
WKU @ UNT OVER 39 1ST HALF
RUTG @ IND OVER 61.5
MRSH -6 @ FAU
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
UAWdLuA.png
Click to expand...

Close, verrrry close, lol.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
I took VAN +6.5 (-115) at opening, and now I'm going to go for the middle with SCAR -2.5 for the same amount, because my line is -3.
Click to expand...
whats your projected score for that game? Just want to see where my thoughts stacked on your numbers. Was considering ML or taking SC at some point too, will be at the game. BOL this week with the monstrous card mah dude
 
Adding for 1/2 unit: FRES +7.5 (-120) vs UNLV

Bulldogs going with freshman QB Anderson for a second week in a row. He's had the same crappy ypp average as the other FRES QB's, but threw 3 picks against Utah St. last week. I'm not sure why drunk in public QB Greenlee isn't starting, he at least has a 7-1 TD-INT ratio. Maybe he's in the double dog house. Anyway, banking on the home team playing with pride. As bad as their season has been going, a home loss to UNLV would be the program's low point going several years back, and maybe several years forward.
 
ksimpsc said:
whats your projected score for that game? Just want to see where my thoughts stacked on your numbers. Was considering ML or taking SC at some point too, will be at the game. BOL this week with the monstrous card mah dude
Click to expand...

26-23 SCAR. I'm showing some line value on the Over, but the game profiles as an Under+, so no play there yet. Have fun at the game -- I imagine you'll be starting at your phone ticker most of the time, lol.
 
Lots of plays for tonight as well, considering just 4 games on the slate. I'm betting 6 of the 8 possible sides and totals, lol. But look at the line value I've gotten -- getting the best of it big time on pretty much every play. How we do.
 
Here's this week's College Football Market Cheat Sheet. I felt like I had my most solid numbers ready before the markets opened this week. The only changes were for a few injury updates.

1Pb2hWb.png

ULxjgPS.png
 
Looks like the BSU @ USU total has peaked. I have 1.2 u. Over 46 and 1.2 u Over 47. Adding as a buy back/middle for .9 unit, Under 51 (-109 5D)
 
I originally played CIN +7 because of the combination of some line value and BYU QB Mangum's ankle injury. He was later listed as probably and I took the Over 64 for a unit when it opened. I'm a little concerned about the BYU QB situation, because the Cougars have squadouche behind Mangum, just one freshman. As a result I'm going to buy back almost half of the Over unit with a chance to middle with Under 68 (-108 5D) for .4 unit.
 
Heh, not a great 2nd half in the CIN @ BYU game. The only consolation is that I never actually posted the CIN +7 play. (I only made reference to a play near game time). I went back and checked. Doh. Now I'm even on forgotten to post picks, as I had ASU -12.5 last week vs COLO and forgot to post it. I missed middling that total by 2 points, last night I missed the middle by 1 point, and Utah State getting 7 first half takeaways from Boise and a landslide of points already put that game Over and that middle will end up being squashed by a mile. At least the Over was one of my big plays of the week and is already a winner. UNLV @ FRES looking pretty good right now almost at the half, and the Houston @ Tulane really good almost to the fourth.
 
I think the TCU @ ISU line will go up tomorrow. That's been the one total I'm having a hard time understanding this week -- why it has dropped and why it hasn't rebounded yet. I'm on a currently bad number of Over 74.5. I'm going to add Over 71 for another unit and try to pick up 2-4 points before game time to set up a middle zone below my original play that might salvage the bad position. In case you haven't noticed I've been right every time setting up a middle, lol. A little concerned that this one has stayed so low for so long, like I said, but worst case scenario I juice out as I don't think there's any way this line goes lower.
 
Looks like I missed the line peaking on my Tulsa @ ECU total middle. Adding for .7 unit: TULSA @ ECU Under 78 (-105 5D) ***Buy back/middle play only***
 
Buy backs-- Wake@UNC Under (52.5) .5 unit
APP@ULM (over 47.5) .9 unit
ULM +14 .5 unit
TCU total gone down, ugh, lol. Have to ride it out, no Polish middle.
 
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