The MASTERS - FORM SHEET

Augusta National Golf Club
Par: 72
Distance: 7,510 yards

water in play on 5 holes
very slick greens - 13 on the stimp
bentgrass greens





MUCH more to follow…
 
I stated awhile back but part of the capping will be these LIV guys.

By the Masters, they'll of had 3 of their own tournaments (9 rounds of golf) under them. Obviously some played in the middle east and other random Asian Tour events as well.

So far, Bryson looks awful. Cam looks very average. Dustin looks disinterested (scoring-wise). Now, I'm capping off scores and stats (not watching live ). I know we have a few big LIV fans on the forum who can help/correct any of this analysis since they watch it.

As far as the big boy tour..defending champ Sheff is obviously playing out of his mind again. Conversely, despite the WD at The Players, Rahm has had a Tiger like 6 months. These two are far ahead of anyone else in the world.

All that being said, don't discount Rory. Missing the cut at TPC was likely a blessing. He needs some mental rest. He wants Augusta bad. If he can get through that first round, he's squarely in play.

Few guys I talk to are high on Spieth. The nice finishes lately show the form is coming along. I still think he's a bit aways from having that "big" win that says he's all the way back. He is close though...

Back to Rahm...

He's always had that one or two holes at Augusta that get his temperature up a bit and doesn't allow him to finish off a tournament. He's a damn near auto top 10 there (only first and last appearances outside that). He is MUCH more suited for this now, imo.

Back to LIV guys, the one I'd think has the best chance would be Fatrick. We saw the great finish versus Rory in January. I honestly won't take his Liv results as highly as others. He's a different breed.

Collin hitting ball well again, but that putter is a concern. That just won't get it done at Augusta.

Love JT, one of my favorite golfers, but he can't put together 4 rounds right now. With that being said, he showed at Southern Hills he can get it going at anytime.

Cantlay is a guy who definitely can be a quiet factor. He led this thing late in the Tiger win.

Xander is too inconsistent.

Tony seems ready for that breakthrough, but seems destined to be that guy carding top 10s here.

Jason Day is having a damn good comeback year. I mean, you can get him over 30-1 to win this. Definitely worth a look.

I'll have more thoughts on Tiger leading up. Yes, he can win this. Two starting points will be weather that week and also the draw on Thursday/Friday (needs early -late imo).

More as we go... Cannot wait!
 
I think Cam Smith's game is a pretty good match for major golf, and Augusta in particular. Maybe he won't be as sharp with the lack of competitive rounds, but I think he's the LIV player with the best chance of winning the Masters. And DJ could just show up relaxed and blow everyone out of the water
 
gps_3 said:
I think Cam Smith's game is a pretty good match for major golf, and Augusta in particular. Maybe he won't be as sharp with the lack of competitive rounds, but I think he's the LIV player with the best chance of winning the Masters. And DJ could just show up relaxed and blow everyone out of the water
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I can't see anyone blowing Rahm or Scottie out of the water right now. These two are just a cut above everybody right now.

DJs Masters moment was in November, that should be noted. That was a different course (yes, I know other prior history).
 
Only 3 golfers have won back to back tournaments:

Jack Nicklaus 1965 & 1966
Nick Faldo 1989 & 1990
Tiger Woods 2001 & 2002





Sergio Garcia currently holds the record for most attempts before winning the Masters, he was making his 19th Masters appearance when winning in 2017





6 is the average number of attempts for maiden Masters winners






4 of the top 5 finishers in 2022 were ranked inside the world's top ten 1, 9, 6 & 3, the top 8 were all ranked inside the world's top 32





21 of the 23 Masters winners since 2000 were officially ranked inside the world's top 30 heading into the tournament





9 of the top 11 finishers in 2022 all ranked in the top 15 for Greens In Regulation
 
Completely agree on Day. He’s finally looking healthy. A ticket on him at 30/1+ makes a lot of sense. Spieth is starting to make some mid range putts which is encouraging… but his short range putts look shaky at best. I think Augusta exposes bad putting. No denying his ball striking is definitely turning the corner and he’s always been a magician around the greens. I don’t hold that missed 3 footer on 18 against him Sunday, as he was out of contention. But hitting that four iron to inside 7 feet only to hit a terrible birdie putt on 17. I find that hard to ignore… and yes it’s just one putt out of many, but to be in the thick of it and having a shot to win at Valspar, what does he do with that putt to have a shot at Augusta?
 
B.A.R. said:
Good number

Was just chatting with some people and seeing numbers for him much lower.
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I saw the same and grabbed this number while it was still posted. I think of Day as one of the good guys on Tour. It’s really nice to see him play pain free golf. I saw an interesting bet on one of the sites today.. will a LIV player win a major this year… yes -175 no +130… plus money is an interesting play in my opinion.

Hope all is well. Enjoy your weekend BAR.
 
RBTrojan said:
I saw the same and grabbed this number while it was still posted. I think of Day as one of the good guys on Tour. It’s really nice to see him play pain free golf. I saw an interesting bet on one of the sites today.. will a LIV player win a major this year… yes -175 no +130… plus money is an interesting play in my opinion.

Hope all is well. Enjoy your weekend BAR.
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Interesting indeed.

I think The Open will be the best chance for a LIV guy fwiw.
 
RBTrojan said:
I saw the same and grabbed this number while it was still posted. I think of Day as one of the good guys on Tour. It’s really nice to see him play pain free golf. I saw an interesting bet on one of the sites today.. will a LIV player win a major this year… yes -175 no +130… plus money is an interesting play in my opinion.

Hope all is well. Enjoy your weekend BAR.
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Day is one of the good guys. I'm glad to see him playing well. That's good for the golfing world.
 
MSN article on why Burns won't win the Masters- Sam Burns Stands No Chance at the Masters Despite His Impressive Win at the WGC Match Play

Augusta National has long been known as a second-shot golf course. You can’t win the Masters unless your iron game shows up to the golf course, and the stats prove it. Six of the last eight Masters winners have ranked fifth or better that week in strokes gained on approach. Ten of the last 11 winners have ranked seventh or better in greens in regulation.
 
laopadak said:
MSN article on why Burns won't win the Masters- Sam Burns Stands No Chance at the Masters Despite His Impressive Win at the WGC Match Play

Augusta National has long been known as a second-shot golf course. You can’t win the Masters unless your iron game shows up to the golf course, and the stats prove it. Six of the last eight Masters winners have ranked fifth or better that week in strokes gained on approach. Ten of the last 11 winners have ranked seventh or better in greens in regulation.
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Agree. It's not just about GIR either. If you miss on the wrong side of those greens, you're presented with insanely difficult putts/chips. You hit the right side of the slopes, you can score. I don't think you have to be a great putter, but you do need a pretty good putting week.
 
gps_3 said:
Agree. It's not just about GIR either. If you miss on the wrong side of those greens, you're presented with insanely difficult putts/chips. You hit the right side of the slopes, you can score. I don't think you have to be a great putter, but you do need a pretty good putting week.
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Last sentence sums it up.

You can be an average putter, but you need to exceed your own expectations for this particular week.
 
B.A.R. said:
Last sentence sums it up.

You can be an average putter, but you need to exceed your own expectations for this particular week.
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And I think being an above average iron player feeds into that. Better iron shots = shorter putts. And of course driving distance feeds into that as well, with it being easier to hit it close with shorter irons. Unless you're Bryson. He can't figure this course out
 
gps_3 said:
And I think being an above average iron player feeds into that. Better iron shots = shorter putts. And of course driving distance feeds into that as well, with it being easier to hit it close with shorter irons. Unless you're Bryson. He can't figure this course out
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Par 67 yo
 
Titleist pro V1 is the ball of choice
the ball is renowned for giving players extra carry distance



13 of the last 20 Masters winners have been US players



4 of the last 6 Masters winners used a TaylorMade driver




16 players will make their Masters debuts in 2023
including 7 amateurs
all seeking to become the first rookie in 44 years to win the tournament






The last 10 winners were all ranked in the world’s top 25 heading up Magnolia Lane


8 of them had recorded a win in their previous half dozen official tour starts
 
Intrigued by what Brooks does today at LIV. Would love a Brooks vs Rory final round pairing.

You can never write off Patrick Reed and his short game around here.
 
EARLY weather forecast, looks very wet




Thursday, April 6 – First Round​

It’s going to be a muggy one to start things at Augusta. With a high of 86°F forecasted right now but with a 40% chance of scattered thunderstorms all throughout the day. That’s not uncommon for Georgia this time of year but it does seem like we could see some stoppages and suspensions of play throughout the first round, especially if lightning and thunder come into play.

Friday, April 7 – Second Round​

Winds and more rain are expected to come in overnight, which could make things quite interesting. There are no thunderstorms in the forecast with a high of only 67°F for the day but there are showers predicted throughout the entire day with a 60% chance of rain called for throughout both the morning and evening. The wind is also projected to pick up with consistently 5-12mph breezes blowing through.

Saturday, April 8 – Third Round​

Quite literally more of the same for Saturday as The Masters weather forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain in the first part of the day and a 60% chance late in the day. The high is projected at only 66°F though the wind is expected to die down slightly from where it is on Friday. The big question is if Augusta National will become too saturated for the players to keep competing


Sunday, April 9 – Final Round​

That saturation will really come into play for the finishing round on Sunday. The rain is supposed to continue a bit early on Sunday with a 50% chance forecasted but then clear out mostly in the afternoon. The high rises up a bit to 72°F for the day, so we’ll see if the course is playable and certainly hope that no golf is pushed past Easter Sunday
 

PGA DFS The Seven Deadly Sins - The Masters​

2 days agoby SPENCER AGUIAR




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What Appears In This Article? hide
1. The Seven Deadly Sins - Who Can Win At Augusta In 2023?
2. Who Is Left Standing?
3. Win Big With RotoBaller
4. Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
5. More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks
6. Featured Sportsbook Promo Offers

The history at Augusta tells more than just a story; it helps to figure out who might be able to grab the green jacket come Sunday.
There are a handful of qualities that I am using to eliminate golfers, so let's figure out who is standing at the end of this trial run.
I do want to note that this has successfully included the winner all four years that I have run this model. No promises that the trend continues, but let's give it our best shot.
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The Seven Deadly Sins - Who Can Win At Augusta In 2023? ​

1. Golfers Over 45 - Only Jack Nicklaus has ever won the Masters being older than 45 (46 years, two months, 23 days). That takes away the following players from this year's pool: Jose Maria Olazabal, Mike Weir, Larry Mize, Sandy Lyle, Vijay Singh, Bernhard Langer, Fred Couples, Zach Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods (Don't shoot the messenger!)


2. Players Who Won't Be Making At Least Their Third Appearance At Augusta - A first-timer hasn't won the event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and it typically takes a few showings to get accustomed to the undulation of the greens. That eliminates the following golfers: Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira, Matthew McClean, Gordon Sargent, Aldrich Potgieter, Kazuki Higa, Sam Bennett, Ben Carr, Sepp Straka, Kyoung-Hoon Lee, Adrian Meronk, Adam Svensson, Kurt Kitayama, Mito Pereira, Harold Varner III, Tom Hoge, Taylor Moore, J.T. Poston, Ryan Fox, Min Woo Lee, Talor Gooch, Sahith Theegala, Seamus Power, Tom Kim, Sam Burns, Keith Mitchell, Cameron Young,
Those first two statistics have successfully eliminated 36 of our 87 participants.

3. Golfers Ranked Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Driving Distance - I don't believe distance is the only decider to find success at Augusta, but it does hurt someone's potential to find the winner's circle if he can't crack the top-50 names in an 87-person field: Kevin Na, Louis Oosthuizen, Kevin Kisner, Francesco Molinari, Patrick Reed, Russell Henley, Danny Willett, Justin Rose, Brian Harman, Harris English, Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Tommy Fleetwood, Chris Kirk, Abraham Ancer, Si Woo Kim,
There were some slight surprises in that list, including former champions Patrick Reed and Danny Willett. We also saw a favorite in Collin Morikawa eliminated.
4. Golfers Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field Around the Green - There are too many areas for players to find trouble, and it will show quickly if your short game falters: Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Champ, Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Sergio Garcia, Corey Conners, Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Kokrak, Keegan Bradley, Will Zalatoris
Down goes a ton of the LIV Frazier's! Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau all see the door -- as well as young PGA Tour studs in Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris

5. Golfers Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Three-Putt Percentage - Same theory as strokes gained around the green. Mistakes can add up quickly: Thomas Pieters, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann

This has historically been the qualifier that has eliminated Rory McIlroy...He isn't on the list this year with his 19th-place rank in this field.
6. Players Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field In Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage - The easiest holes at the property will come at your four par-fives, and you can't afford to miss out on your scoring opportunities. That eliminates these three golfers: Scott Stallings, Mackenzie Hughes
Not a ton of traction with this in 2023.

7. A Top-30 Result at the Venue during one of their last three attempts - That isn't going to take out many players, but it is enough to eliminate Adam Scott, Alex Noren, Max Homa

Who Is Left Standing?​

We are down to just 12 golfers! Please note that failure to make this list will not be a reason I exclude a golfer from my DFS pool, but I will try and stick to these names when selecting my handful of outrights.
Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Jon Rahm, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day and Shane Lowry
 
Capping the LIV players has to be the hardest thing in golf betting in a while. Golf is such a mental game, will the lower stress rounds at LIV be helpful? Or will the lack of meaningful golf cause them to fold if they get in the mix? I don't think the physical abilities will be impacted at all, other than the older guys who would be trending downward anyway. I don't see myself getting too involved in LIV guys, one way or the other, but it would not surprise me if one or two were in the mix on Sunday. It would also not be a surprise if none are
 
gps_3 said:
Capping the LIV players has to be the hardest thing in golf betting in a while. Golf is such a mental game, will the lower stress rounds at LIV be helpful? Or will the lack of meaningful golf cause them to fold if they get in the mix? I don't think the physical abilities will be impacted at all, other than the older guys who would be trending downward anyway. I don't see myself getting too involved in LIV guys, one way or the other, but it would not surprise me if one or two were in the mix on Sunday. It would also not be a surprise if none are
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When they all bailed I felt Mullet Smith was the only one with the ability to win majors. I don't know if any of that has changed as LIV Golf might as well be played on another planet - no one knows where to watch it.
 
I had hoped to gain some perspective on LIV guys with their 3rd event. Unfortunately, it was played on a really easy track so not much to learn from that to be honest.
 
Cam Smith v. Rahm tourney head to head was +130 this morning, now up to +150. Might be a nothing burger but was leaning towards Smith so wondering if something's up, injury etc.
 
B.A.R. said:
I had hoped to gain some perspective on LIV guys with their 3rd event. Unfortunately, it was played on a really easy track so not much to learn from that to be honest.
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Really really tough cap...no way to really correlate any data. Strange deal where I feel Augusta was damn near built for Cam Smith but I've seen nothing worthwhile (and definitely nothing to correlate) from him since the open when he was in the 30's at St Andrews (thankfully I was in for the ride) but how do I convince myself to grab him in the low 20's here and just hope the putter is white hot and he's been putting in the same work as last year that lifted him up so much? Really tough to me and I'm leaning towards just leaving all of LIV alone maybe outside of Fatty Patty at 70-1 or better who is the exact type that might sneak in there especially with a messed up weather weekend....
 
Last edited:
PaintCrew said:
Really really tough cap...no way to really correlate any data. Strange deal where I feel Augusta was damn near built for Cam Smith but I've seen nothing worthwhile (and definitely nothing to correlate) from him since the open when he was in the 30's at St Andrews (thankfully I was in for the ride) but how do I convince myself to grab him in the low 20's here and just hope the putter is white hot and he's been putting in the same work as last year that lifted him up so much? Really tough to me and I'm leaning towards just leaving all of LIV alone maybe outside of Fatty Patty at 70-1 or better who is the exact type that might sneak in there especially with a messed up weather weekend....
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Fwiw, on LIV players...

This will be their best major as a group this year...

- Small field
- You can eliminate a lot of past champs

They will have many make the cut and a lot in top 25. That's just the #s game here.

The next two majors will be more telling.
 
laopadak said:
Masters win- 1u each. Gonna add and gonna be heavily invested this week. Committed to an Easter morning tee time but have a feeling I might need to cancel. GL on your plays and enjoy the tournament boys.

Rors 7-1
Spieth 18-1
Rose 66-1
Any LIV player to win 5-1
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I’m with you this week, VERY heavily invested
I made my biggest golf wager ever today, Tiger won’t make the cut +160 on Barstool
 
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