The MASTERS - FORM SHEET

BringInTheLefty said:
that account is great for laughs

Tiger will NOT make the cut…
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The weather forecast certainly doesn't favor Tiger. But if he was able to make the cut last year after not playing a competitive round in over a year, I don't know that I'd be itching to bet against him. I won't be on it in any way, shape or form, so good luck to you
 
Here's what I came up with so far:

Matchups:

SungJae -105 over Cam Young
Brooks +150 over Hovland
Lowry -115 over Fleetwood

Top 20:
Rose +150
PReed +160
Lowry +140
Conners +120
Sungjae -110
J Day -130
Finau -145

Top 10:
Cantlay -110
J Day +175
Sungjae +230
Lowry +375
Rose +400

Top 5:
J Day +400
Lowry +900
 

Finish Position and Strokes Gained Course History (2015-2022)​

According to DataGolf, course history at Augusta National is the most predictive on Tour, and by a wide margin.
 
image-3.png
 

2023 Masters Trends Champion​



This year there are two players that fit all 19 trends…Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas. Hideki Matsuyama finished third with 18. Jon Rahm and Jordan Spieth tied for fourth by fitting 17 trends. The highest LIV player was Dustin Johnson with 12. Last year’s champion Scottie Scheffler finished in fifth place. Here are the standings for the top 20 players:

Rory McIlroy – 19
Justin Thomas – 19
Hideki Matsuyama – 18
Jon Rahm – 17
Jordan Spieth – 17
Corey Conners – 16
Patrick Cantlay – 16
Scottie Scheffler – 16
Shane Lowry – 16
Viktor Hovland – 16
Collin Morikawa – 15
Tommy Fleetwood – 15
Tony Finau – 15
Xander Schauffele – 15
Matt Fitzpatrick – 14
Max Homa – 14
Sungjae Im – 14
Jason Day – 13
Tyrrell Hatton – 13
Will Zalatoris – 13
 
Hello friends…

Tournament match ups:

Matsuyama-115 vs Zalatoris: this is more of a fade play on Zalatoris than a play on Hideki. Z’s ball striking is way down compared to last season. Until his elite ball striking returns, I think there is value in fading him.

Conners -120 vs Hatton: Conners coming into this week off a win with previous excellent history at Augusta. Hatton is coming into the event with a couple off weeks in a row.

Langer -125 vs Couples: this week bring forth some fun and interesting match ups. My gut tells me Couples may be more focused on the LIV guys this week than on himself. Love Freddy but fading him in this spot.

Straka-115 vs Watson: I’ll be first to admit this is a risky play as I have no idea how Bubba is playing currently. I know overall health has been an issue for him, probably a big reason to move to LIV. Throw in bad weather a possibility (Bubba was never a fan of bad weather), give me the big Euro to play better this week.

I may add a few but these are locked in for me thus far. Best of luck to all your wagers…
 
RBTrojan said:
Hello friends…

Tournament match ups:

Matsuyama-115 vs Zalatoris: this is more of a fade play on Zalatoris than a play on Hideki. Z’s ball striking is way down compared to last season. Until his elite ball striking returns, I think there is value in fading him.

Conners -120 vs Hatton: Conners coming into this week off a win with previous excellent history at Augusta. Hatton is coming into the event with a couple off weeks in a row.

Langer -125 vs Couples: this week bring forth some fun and interesting match ups. My gut tells me Couples may be more focused on the LIV guys this week than on himself. Love Freddy but fading him in this spot.

Straka-115 vs Watson: I’ll be first to admit this is a risky play as I have no idea how Bubba is playing currently. I know overall health has been an issue for him, probably a big reason to move to LIV. Throw in bad weather a possibility (Bubba was never a fan of bad weather), give me the big Euro to play better this week.

I may add a few but these are locked in for me thus far. Best of luck to all your wagers…
Click to expand...
great card
 
RBTrojan said:
Hello friends…

Tournament match ups:

Matsuyama-115 vs Zalatoris: this is more of a fade play on Zalatoris than a play on Hideki. Z’s ball striking is way down compared to last season. Until his elite ball striking returns, I think there is value in fading him.

Conners -120 vs Hatton: Conners coming into this week off a win with previous excellent history at Augusta. Hatton is coming into the event with a couple off weeks in a row.

Langer -125 vs Couples: this week bring forth some fun and interesting match ups. My gut tells me Couples may be more focused on the LIV guys this week than on himself. Love Freddy but fading him in this spot.

Straka-115 vs Watson: I’ll be first to admit this is a risky play as I have no idea how Bubba is playing currently. I know overall health has been an issue for him, probably a big reason to move to LIV. Throw in bad weather a possibility (Bubba was never a fan of bad weather), give me the big Euro to play better this week.

I may add a few but these are locked in for me thus far. Best of luck to all your wagers…
Click to expand...
I think Willy Z is hurt. If he can't hit it like he's used to, I can't imagine his putting stroke is going to bail him out.
 
gps_3 said:
I think Willy Z is hurt. If he can't hit it like he's used to, I can't imagine his putting stroke is going to bail him out.
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I agree with you. I’m a big fan of his and I think his future is bright, but his game is not where it was. Taking a look at his approach to the green stats are very telling to me. Obviously the further away from the hole one hits it, the more stress there is on the putter.
 
Thursdays Featured Groups:

10:18 a.m. | Tiger Woods, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele

10:42 a.m. | Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Cameron Young

1:36 p.m. | Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Sam Bennett

2:00 p.m. | Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau
 
RBTrojan said:
I agree with you. I’m a big fan of his and I think his future is bright, but his game is not where it was. Taking a look at his approach to the green stats are very telling to me. Obviously the further away from the hole one hits it, the more stress there is on the putter.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1643338984330805253


Not sure AGNC is the place to "find" your stroke
 
RBTrojan said:
Hello friends…

Tournament match ups:

Matsuyama-115 vs Zalatoris: this is more of a fade play on Zalatoris than a play on Hideki. Z’s ball striking is way down compared to last season. Until his elite ball striking returns, I think there is value in fading him.

Conners -120 vs Hatton: Conners coming into this week off a win with previous excellent history at Augusta. Hatton is coming into the event with a couple off weeks in a row.

Langer -125 vs Couples: this week bring forth some fun and interesting match ups. My gut tells me Couples may be more focused on the LIV guys this week than on himself. Love Freddy but fading him in this spot.

Straka-115 vs Watson: I’ll be first to admit this is a risky play as I have no idea how Bubba is playing currently. I know overall health has been an issue for him, probably a big reason to move to LIV. Throw in bad weather a possibility (Bubba was never a fan of bad weather), give me the big Euro to play better this week.

I may add a few but these are locked in for me thus far. Best of luck to all your wagers…
Click to expand...
Connors I've had last few here and I think a real chance to break through big time

Have him a lot of ways, win, top 10, top 20
 
First official play...


Top Japanese -- Hidecki -450 to win one unit.

This guy did win order of merit last year over there. That's how he qualified. In past instances, these qualifiers have not done well at Augusta.




Screenshot_20230404-205531.png
 
Usually get all my golf info from @B.A.R. and this thread. Rarely bet golf except for Majors but got dam I love the Masters. Going Fondystyle:

#The Masters - #Top 20 Finish - #The Masters - Top 20 Finish - Patrick Cantlay -165 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 8:00AM
1.65/1

#The Masters - #Top 20 Finish - #The Masters - Top 20 Finish - Jason Day -135 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 8:00AM
1.35/1

#The Masters - #Top 20 Finish - #The Masters - Top 20 Finish - Cameron Smith -150 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 8:00AM
1.50/1

#The Masters - #Top 20 Finish - #The Masters - Top 20 Finish - Will Zalatoris +105 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 8:00AM
1/1.05

#The Masters - #Top 20 Finish - #The Masters - Top 20 Finish - Justin Rose +135 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 8:00AM
1/1.35

#The Masters - #Top 20 Finish - #The Masters - Top 20 Finish - Shane Lowry +120 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 8:00AM
1/1.20

#The Masters - #Top 20 Finish - #The Masters - Top 20 Finish - Justin Thomas -150 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 8:00AM
1.50/1

#The Masters - #Top 20 Finish - #The Masters - Top 20 Finish - Tony Finau -150 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 8:00AM
1.50/1

#The Masters - #Top 10 Finish - #The Masters - Top 10 Finish - Rory McIlroy -150 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 8:00AM
1.50/1

#The Masters - #Top 10 Finish - #The Masters - Top 10 Finish - Scottie Scheffler -140 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 8:00AM
1.40/1

#The Masters - #Top 10 Finish - #The Masters - Top 10 Finish - Jon Rahm -115 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 8:00AM
1.15/1




Betting these outrights, hate to do Rory at this shitty number but goddamn he is fucking due. Definitely will play live if available. He always pisses me off, but fuck it.

#The Masters - #To win Outright - #Odds to win 2023 Masters - Rory McIlroy +600 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 8:00AM
2/18

#The Masters - #To win Outright - #Odds to win 2023 Masters - Jordan Spieth +1600 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 7:59AM
1/16

#The Masters - #To win Outright - #Odds to win 2023 Masters - Patrick Cantlay +1600 for Game - Date Event: Apr 6 2023 8:00AM
1/16
 
this is truly great stuff, thank you guys.

Weather looks like it will be impactful. Heard guys talking about how Rory doesnt like this kind of weather, and has said as much. Even though he's Irish, it doesn't agree with him, and is big reason why he moved to the US, to get away from this type of weather.
Any thoughts on that?
I have him picked in one of my pools, thinking of changing that
 
Weather is such a tough cap. I think the potential for weather and a bunch of stop starts opens the door a bit for guys down the board (and also kind of eliminates any hope of a short knocker if guys can't get any run on drives) and part of how I ended up with a piece of Reed & Lowry.

Not sure on Rory with the weather overall but soft conditions sure don't hurt him with his length. Agree though if it's cold and breezy (like it should be Sat/Sun) and wet I wouldn't think that's a plus for him.
 
Tito said:
this is truly great stuff, thank you guys.

Weather looks like it will be impactful. Heard guys talking about how Rory doesnt like this kind of weather, and has said as much. Even though he's Irish, it doesn't agree with him, and is big reason why he moved to the US, to get away from this type of weather.
Any thoughts on that?
I have him picked in one of my pools, thinking of changing that
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The knock on Rory and weather pertains to wind. As mentioned, soft and wet should play to his advantage since there won't be as much roll on the fairways. In fact, there are some that think the only reason he won a US Open is because of the soft, but long, conditions at Congressional. I haven't checked the wind forecast, but if it's not howling, I'd think Rory will be in the mix as long as he doesn't have his usual terrible Thursday. Heard on Live from last night that he's been working with Bob Rotella and that they were scheduled to talk last night. If you are a golfer and want to improve, I can't recommend Rotella's books enough
 
I'm warming up to the idea that Brooks could be back to his previous major form. If he's truly healthy as he claims, and is carrying a massive chip on his shoulder, I think he could be a factor
 
I found a few bets on FD that I like, particularly top 10 finish, round 1 but didn't know if all ties paid in full or if they're dead heat graded. I tried chatting but was 71 in line, then the site kicks me out due to inactivity so getting a hold of someone to ask has been challenging. In their FAQ page, dead heat grading is explained and it appears their golf bets are graded as such..

Just a reminder that some books grade on dead heat and those enticing finishing position odds you're seeing aren't nothing more than a pig in a dress.

BetMGM and Betrivers has been consistent, FD and DK are questionable for me.

Any other solid books you're using for Masters?
 
Yeah FD i'm pretty sure is dead heat on the T5/10/20's.

I love Bet365 for golf as it's the best US option with E/W's that I've found. Almost use it for golf only at this point.

My local I use for the T5/10/20's as there's no dead heat....not sure of a main book without dead heat to be honest but haven't dug that much
 
Some fun notes on maybe the guy i'm most excited to hopefully see some shots of and while he's probably getting a bit too much love in the betting market I've still sprinkled on him in T10/T20 and top Amateur

Gordon Sargent - #1 amateur in the world

He is currently No. 1 in the World Amateur Golf Ranking and the two main collegiate rankings. The worst finish in his past 15 collegiate starts is T7, including four victories. His scoring average in 22 rounds this season is 68.0. His lowest score is 62. His highest? Seventy-two. He was medalist at the East Lake Cup in October and won the Hayt Invitational in February by seven shots over North Florida’s Nick Gabrelcik, who weeks later made the cut at the PGA TOUR’s Valspar Championship.
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In Monday’s practice round, Sargent didn’t just routinely drive it past his playing competitors, Justin Thomas and Max Homa. It was dang near every time.

“I don’t know, I stopped counting,” Homa said.

Added Homa’s caddie, Joe Greiner, who was trailing his player as they headed toward the parking lot: “Holy s---!”
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1643000528249470978
 
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Maybe a hot take, but I think the par 3 contest is the most overrated thing in golf
 
BringInTheLefty said:
I enjoy the families and players all having a fun time
But that’s my .02
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Yeah i get that part, and it is cool. Maybe "most overrated" is a little strong. I've been to it twice, and maybe I'm just jaded because they close the big course early and you can't see as much real golf.
 
laopadak said:
Awesome Inspekdah- Going to do similiar with live wins / plays. GL mang.
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Yeah I liked Rory and Jordan, like you!

Always need something on SS because he wins with ease if I don’t. His loss 2 weeks ago was brutal. So this will ensure he loses.

Small bet on Rory FRL too.
 
FWIW .... I was there yesterday and a good friend of mine is a golf writer n was with Rory n Dustin for a good bit. ( He actually knows Dustin pretty well, b/c when Daddy Wayne put the hammer down, Dustin was here in MB for awhile....He said Power putting good, Rory is on a Mission n Dustin looks and is tired, putting like crap n low energy.
 
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