Thanksgiving Week Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

We had a 7-5 week last week...it was going great until the wheels fell off a bit late. 85-73 for the year (.5379). I checked back and remembered that this week last year was a disaster. I whittled down a slew of games I liked to 14 and lost most of those while most of the ones I eliminated won. This past week was the opposite. Pretty much every game I thought better of either fell right on the line or lost. No chance that happens two weeks in a row, so I think I'm gonna be more aggressive this week. Having said that....no activity on the MAC games. I learned my lesson last week.

Went 6-10 for the week, brought yearly total to 91-83 (.5229).

The same thing happened this year as last year. Don't really feel like rehashing. I'm typically not good Championship week. Might just sit it out and wait for the bowls.


Thanksgiving night:

1. Ole Miss -10 @Mississippi State: I'm sure this is on the square side of things, but I can't see how State can hang in this game considering the offense they've been rolling out there for most of the conference season. Will Rogers limped out there last week against Southern Miss and they were able to avoid embarrassment by dispatching the Golden Eagles, but Rogers still only completed 12 of 17 for 144 yards. The Bulldog offense has been anemic lately. In the last 4 SEC games, they've averaged barely more than 250 yards per game, and those games were against Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas and A&M, with A&M being the only squad I'd consider having an above average defense. Now Ole Miss comes in with the 23rd ranked offense on a yards per play basis along with the 9th ranked pass offense against Mississippi State's 92nd ranked pass defense in yards per attempt against. Ole Miss certainly remembers how it felt to lose to the Bulldogs and their cowbell wielding fans last year on their home field and Kiffin has been great as a road dog, covering 6 of his last 7 in that role. On the flip side, Mississippi State has been getting hammered as a home dog, going 1-6 in that role as well, the last time in a completely uninspiring 24-3 loss to Kentucky. Most of their schedule has been filled by weaker passing attacks, but when they've faced the good ones(LSU, Bama, South Carolina), they've been burned. I think Kiffin gets his revenge for last year in this one.

 

[Br@ssknux]

LOL, Liked BG and EMU tonight. Chickened out. Oh well.

 

[M.W.]

We had a 7-5 week last week...it was going great until the wheels fell off a bit late. 85-73 for the year (.5379). I checked back and remembered that this week last year was a disaster. I whittled down a slew of games I liked to 14 and lost most of those while most of the ones I eliminated won. This past week was the opposite. Pretty much every game I thought better of either fell right on the line or lost. No chance that happens two weeks in a row, so I think I'm gonna be more aggressive this week. Having said that....no activity on the MAC games. I learned my lesson last week.

Thanksgiving night:

1. Ole Miss -10 @Mississippi State: I'm sure this is on the square side of things, but I can't see how State can hang in this game considering the offense they've been rolling out there for most of the conference season. Will Rogers limped out there last week against Southern Miss and they were able to avoid embarrassment by dispatching the Golden Eagles, but Rogers still only completed 12 of 17 for 144 yards. The Bulldog offense has been anemic lately. In the last 4 SEC games, they've averaged barely more than 250 yards per game, and those games were against Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas and A&M, with A&M being the only squad I'd consider having an above average defense. Now Ole Miss comes in with the 23rd ranked offense on a yards per play basis along with the 9th ranked pass offense against Mississippi State's 92nd ranked pass defense in yards per attempt against. Ole Miss certainly remembers how it felt to lose to the Bulldogs and their cowbell wielding fans last year on their home field and Kiffin has been great as a road dog, covering 6 of his last 7 in that role. On the flip side, Mississippi State has been getting hammered as a home dog, going 1-6 in that role as well, the last time in a completely uninspiring 24-3 loss to Kentucky. Most of their schedule has been filled by weaker passing attacks, but when they've faced the good ones(LSU, Bama, South Carolina), they've been burned. I think Kiffin gets his revenge for last year in this one.

Grovehard posted some insightful comments in the SEC thread, which generally support your position.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Grovehard posted some insightful comments in the SEC thread, which generally support your position.

Oh I saw it. Definitely glad he's on my side. Or I'm on his.

By the way, I've got to ask...why is it a benefit for Clemson to be on the road this week? I should probably be able to figure it out, but I need some help.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Jacksonville State -2.5 @New Mexico State: We're out of chronological order here(game is Saturday afternoon) because I want to get this one in due to a chance that the Aggies leave some guys out of this game(especially QB Diego Pavia who has been banged up for awhile). This game means nothing to New Mexico State. They are in the CUSA title game against Liberty regardless of what happens. That is baked into this line, which is why Jax State is the favorite. On the field, Jax State lines up with more edges, as their defense has been very good all year, especially against the run(4th in yards per attempt against), which is where the Aggies make their hay. I also think they'll be able to run it on the Aggies who despite their terrible schedule has only middling numbers against the run. All credit to Jerry Kill and the Aggies for that effort last week at Auburn. Not only did they win as a 26 point underdog, but they completely dominated that game, with a 414 to 213 yard edge. Auburn obviously hardly even prepared for the game, and I read that Freeze installed the Bama gameplan last week, but who cares..it was a bloodbath. The end result is a terrible spot for the Aggies this week trying to come down from that high, and there's added motivation for Jacksonville State because they have no bowl game to look forward to. It means something to beat the team that everybody s talking about, and they can lay claim to a quasi CUSA title game spot if they win because they would have a better record than NMSU in that case.(both are 6-1) We've seen this kind of motivation work before when JMU laid waste to Coastal last year in a similar spot when they couldn't qualify for the Sun Belt title game or a bowl, and I remember it well because I was dumb enough to take the points with Coastal. Jax State has been solid all year, and I think they'll have all the motivation here. Not making that mistake again.

 

[Bubbalicious]

Br@ssknux
Thanks for all of your insight this season and prior years. Always a first read. I am a BC guy an we host Miami Friday. We suck. Miami sucks when you look harder at the record they lost to some good teams. Van Dyke is either white hot or ice cold. One thing that occurred to me is the following:
Miami has the #28 defense in the nation allowing 326.8 YPG (our D is #67). Miami has been exceptional against the run; they are #9 in the country allowing just under 93 rushing yards per game, although Louisville's terrific rushing game did gain 160+ against them. However, FSU only ran for 57, and NC St. only went for 108. And those are games that Miami lost! Miami is much more susceptible against the pass (80th in the nation averaging 233.9 YPG), but that's not exactly an area where BC has excelled lately.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Br@ssknux
Thanks for all of your insight this season and prior years. Always a first read. I am a BC guy an we host Miami Friday. We suck. Miami sucks when you look harder at the record they lost to some good teams. Van Dyke is either white hot or ice cold. One thing that occurred to me is the following:
Miami has the #28 defense in the nation allowing 326.8 YPG (our D is #67). Miami has been exceptional against the run; they are #9 in the country allowing just under 93 rushing yards per game, although Louisville's terrific rushing game did gain 160+ against them. However, FSU only ran for 57, and NC St. only went for 108. And those are games that Miami lost! Miami is much more susceptible against the pass (80th in the nation averaging 233.9 YPG), but that's not exactly an area where BC has excelled lately.

Thanks Bubba! You make some good points, but I'm about to disappoint you. I'm definitely a guy who pays attention to the numbers, but at this time of year, motivation and situations are as important as any time of the year. Hopefully the writeup will explain it. We'll see what happens.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. @Boston College +10.5 v Miami(FL): When you stack these teams up on paper, you probably wouldn't be compelled to consider BC here. Miami ranks pretty well in every category, not worse than 66th in any category that I pay attention to in the general per play rate stats and closer to the 20-30 range in most other things. Their profile suggests about an 8-3 or 9-2 record, but here they sit at 6-5. Mario Cristobal and his staff generate zero confidence that this team will operate at peak efficiency each week, and if there's ever a week where Miami figures to not give a shit about a game, it's this one. They had bigger dreams this year than wear they find themselves, yet they have already managed bowl eligibility. Now they go to a cold weather spot to play a non-descript BC team on Friday at noon. Do we really think we'll get an A effort from the Canes here, especially after they just left it on the field two weeks in a row in big games against Florida State and Louisville. BC on the other hand tends to play well when dogged heavily at home. They just about beat Florida State as a 26 point dog early in the year and until a recent spate of incompetence, actually won 5 games in a row. QB Thomas Castellanos is erratic, but he's capable of hot games. Also, Miami isn't great, but they still elicit inspired efforts from opponents, and I'd be surprised if the Eagles sleepwalk through this one. On the other hand, Cristobal is a trailblazer in the art of getting confused performances from talent laden teams. I'll take the double digits here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. Iowa +3(-117) @Nebraska: I certainly don't like betting on Iowa, but I find myself asking, how can I not take 3 points here? I don't need to document how these Iowa games go when they play the also rans of the Big Ten. Everybody knows this. Iowa is 9-2, and nobody wants to even fathom them being a team that can win 10 games, but when you play defense like they do and then play a schedule full of derelict offenses, it starts to come into focus as to how it's possible. Nebraska is just the latest of the gaggle of offensively challenged teams in the Big Ten that will get into a taffy pull with Iowa. We can agree that Iowa uses a great defense, and even better punter and a bunch of luck to find a way to win games. We also know that Nebraska over the past 5-6 years has been a team that finds ways to lose games. Even now, with an objectively competent coach, they still have found ways to lose games in excruciating fashion via turnovers and bad offense. They lost by 3 at Minnesota, 3 at Michigan State and 3 at home to Maryland, all games they probably should have won but didn't, even with Matt Rhule at the helm. Last year the Huskers did the impossible and beat Iowa for the first time since 2014. These fanbases do not like each other, so it was a painful loss last year, one that knocked the Hawkeyes out of the Big Ten title game. They are locked in this year and Nebraska needs a win for a bowl, but Iowa will have motivation here. They'd like nothing better than to deprive Nebraska of the bow they want so badly. Nebraska has turned to Chubba Purdy, who looked decent for about a quarter and a half at Wisconsin last week before turning back into Chubba Purdy. Iowa is without Cooper DeJean, but they are so well coached that their depth guys know what they're doing as well. There is no way this Iowa defense will allow any daylight for a stiff like Purdy. Iowa can't play offense either, but they can play the field position game until they bust a long run, just like they do every week. Now that can get 3, even though I expect Iowa to win the game, I can win even if Nebraska finds a way to come out on top. The game is almost certainly going to be within a field goal, and there's a better than 50% chance Iowa wins outright anyway. It seems like a no brainer to take points in this scenario.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. TCU +10 @Oklahoma: Here's another case of a 5-6 team that needs a win badly to make bowl eligibility. TCU has really had a tough year. Starting QB Chandler Morris got hurt in the Iowa State game 6 weeks ago and backup Josh Hoover came in. For whatever reason, I was watching that game at the time, and it was initially a comedy of errors for Hoover, as he made pretty much every mistake that a first time QB could make. But you could see why he was in there because he looked the part, rocket arm, good athleticism, etc. The next week he threw for 400+ against a seemingly overmatched BYU squad(more on them later), then followed that up with 3 straight losses, with roadies at Kansas State and Texas Tech and a home game against Texas. In all three he progressed well, with 300+ efforts against Texas and Texas Tech. It's been a trial by fire, but he's come out of it playing extremely well coming into this game. As for Oklahoma, Taylor Gabriel left the BYU game with a concussion(or it was diagnosed after?), but on a short week it seems unlikely that he would play. Even if he does, they were extremely lucky to beat BYU last week as a 26 point favorite, and the only really solid performance they've had in any game since Texas was their blowout win over West Virginia a couple weeks ago. I think Sooner freshman Jackson Arnold could come in and play well, but for Oklahoma to cover this, they are going to have to fully exploit their advantages over the TCU defense. If Gabriel isn't there, the likelihood of that will be reduced and I think they'll have a fight on their hands against a motivated Horned Frog group. Oklahoma certainly remembers last years embarrassment at the hands of TCU, but in the season finale, they are the ones with more to lose in this one. I like the points here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. UTSA +3.5 @Tulane: These are two very evenly matched teams, but I think that UTSA has been playing better lately, and now that the 3.5s have shown up, I think the dog is the right side here. The winner goes to the AAC title game, so the stakes are high. Coming into the season, I valued Michael Pratt probably as much as any QB in the country. He had a great season, and capped it off with a phenomenal effort against USC in the Cotton Bowl. However, I've found it curious that despite a running game that has been mostly ineffective this year, (77th in yards per carry) and has been so against some poor rush defenses, they still insist on running the ball almost 60% of the time(16th most). Unless they change course here in the last game of the year, it would seem to be a strategy that won't work because UTSA has been very good against the run. The RoadRunners have also been able to pressure the QB, so if they wait to use Pratt on only obvious passing downs, I like UTSA's chances to keep this Tulane offense in check. I think UTSA has a much better chance to run effectively in this game, and QB Frank Harris has been on fire lately, even showing some of the running prowess that made him so tough in previous years but hadn't been evident when he was banged up earlier in the year. If you put a gun to my head and forced me to pick an outright winner in this one, I'd go with UTSA, so it's easy for me to take a FG+. a year ago I would never fade Tulane at home, but this year their ATS prowess at home has come to a screeching halt as they are 1-5.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Missouri -9 @Arkansas: When I went to bed last night this was at 7.5, and I was having a hard time figuring out why it wasn't higher. Well, I got my wish because it's now 9. No matter, because i would probably lay up to 10, and if things go the way I think they will in this one, you probably can't make the line high enough. If you assumed motivation and subjective factors were neutral, I'd still like Missouri based on the advantages they have in the matchups on paper. Well, those things aren't close to neutral. To say that Arkansas is playing out the string is the understatement of the century. Also, the fact that we are getting Arkansas at home here makes it an auto play. Arkansas's only ATS success this year has come as a dog on the road, as they are 1-5 ATS at home with the only cover coming in the opener against Western Carolina by a couple points. In their other home games, they didn't come close to covering against arguably the worst team in FBS(Kent) and then lost outright to BYU, Mississippi State and were thoroughly embarrassed by Auburn. Last week they got a defensive score and several short fields but still didn't really come close to covering against FIU. Eli Drinkwitz never missed a chance to run it up on conference opponents, and I doubt he'll do it here. The Tigers have a chance for 10 wins and their pass attack (ranked 9th) should have no issues moving the ball against the Arkansas pass defense(112th). I don't think this one will be close. Rumors are that the transfer portal is calling many of the Hogs, so if Pittman can coax an effort out of these guys to make the game competitive, hats off to him. Home games have been a horror show for the Hogs this year, and I don't see it getting any better this time.

 

[inZane]

Thanks for your insight and posts Brass.

Good luck this weekend...

:cheers3:

 

[KJ]

7. Missouri -9 @Arkansas: When I went to bed last night this was at 7.5, and I was having a hard time figuring out why it wasn't higher. Well, I got my wish because it's now 9. No matter, because i would probably lay up to 10, and if things go the way I think they will in this one, you probably can't make the line high enough. If you assumed motivation and subjective factors were neutral, I'd still like Missouri based on the advantages they have in the matchups on paper. Well, those things aren't close to neutral. To say that Arkansas is playing out the string is the understatement of the century. Also, the fact that we are getting Arkansas at home here makes it an auto play. Arkansas's only ATS success this year has come as a dog on the road, as they are 1-5 ATS at home with the only cover coming in the opener against Western Carolina by a couple points. In their other home games, they didn't come close to covering against arguably the worst team in FBS(Kent) and then lost outright to BYU, Mississippi State and were thoroughly embarrassed by Auburn. Last week they got a defensive score and several short fields but still didn't really come close to covering against FIU. Eli Drinkwitz never missed a chance to run it up on conference opponents, and I doubt he'll do it here. The Tigers have a chance for 10 wins and their pass attack (ranked 9th) should have no issues moving the ball against the Arkansas pass defense(112th). I don't think this one will be close. Rumors are that the transfer portal is calling many of the Hogs, so if Pittman can coax an effort out of these guys to make the game competitive, hats off to him. Home games have been a horror show for the Hogs this year, and I don't see it getting any better this time.

Like Mizzou regardless

Difference between 7.5 and 9.5 is so nominal it's more a barometer than anything. Can't see any of those numbers dissuading a wager one way or another.

 

[Hulu]

6. UTSA +3.5 @Tulane: These are two very evenly matched teams, but I think that UTSA has been playing better lately, and now that the 3.5s have shown up, I think the dog is the right side here. The winner goes to the AAC title game, so the stakes are high. Coming into the season, I valued Michael Pratt probably as much as any QB in the country. He had a great season, and capped it off with a phenomenal effort against USC in the Cotton Bowl. However, I've found it curious that despite a running game that has been mostly ineffective this year, (77th in yards per carry) and has been so against some poor rush defenses, they still insist on running the ball almost 60% of the time(16th most). Unless they change course here in the last game of the year, it would seem to be a strategy that won't work because UTSA has been very good against the run. The RoadRunners have also been able to pressure the QB, so if they wait to use Pratt on only obvious passing downs, I like UTSA's chances to keep this Tulane offense in check. I think UTSA has a much better chance to run effectively in this game, and QB Frank Harris has been on fire lately, even showing some of the running prowess that made him so tough in previous years but hadn't been evident when he was banged up earlier in the year. If you put a gun to my head and forced me to pick an outright winner in this one, I'd go with UTSA, so it's easy for me to take a FG+. a year ago I would never fade Tulane at home, but this year their ATS prowess at home has come to a screeching halt as they are 1-5.

I've faded Tulane more than any other team this year. They win but they don't get margin over most teams. Good luck this week sir.

 

[Hulu]

7. Missouri -9 @Arkansas: When I went to bed last night this was at 7.5, and I was having a hard time figuring out why it wasn't higher. Well, I got my wish because it's now 9. No matter, because i would probably lay up to 10, and if things go the way I think they will in this one, you probably can't make the line high enough. If you assumed motivation and subjective factors were neutral, I'd still like Missouri based on the advantages they have in the matchups on paper. Well, those things aren't close to neutral. To say that Arkansas is playing out the string is the understatement of the century. Also, the fact that we are getting Arkansas at home here makes it an auto play. Arkansas's only ATS success this year has come as a dog on the road, as they are 1-5 ATS at home with the only cover coming in the opener against Western Carolina by a couple points. In their other home games, they didn't come close to covering against arguably the worst team in FBS(Kent) and then lost outright to BYU, Mississippi State and were thoroughly embarrassed by Auburn. Last week they got a defensive score and several short fields but still didn't really come close to covering against FIU. Eli Drinkwitz never missed a chance to run it up on conference opponents, and I doubt he'll do it here. The Tigers have a chance for 10 wins and their pass attack (ranked 9th) should have no issues moving the ball against the Arkansas pass defense(112th). I don't think this one will be close. Rumors are that the transfer portal is calling many of the Hogs, so if Pittman can coax an effort out of these guys to make the game competitive, hats off to him. Home games have been a horror show for the Hogs this year, and I don't see it getting any better this time.

Love this play too. Completely asymmetrical motivation here as you say Arkansas is dead man walking while Mizzou has their eye on bigger things. Blowout incoming.

 

[bones]

7. Missouri -9 @Arkansas: When I went to bed last night this was at 7.5, and I was having a hard time figuring out why it wasn't higher. Well, I got my wish because it's now 9. No matter, because i would probably lay up to 10, and if things go the way I think they will in this one, you probably can't make the line high enough. If you assumed motivation and subjective factors were neutral, I'd still like Missouri based on the advantages they have in the matchups on paper. Well, those things aren't close to neutral. To say that Arkansas is playing out the string is the understatement of the century. Also, the fact that we are getting Arkansas at home here makes it an auto play. Arkansas's only ATS success this year has come as a dog on the road, as they are 1-5 ATS at home with the only cover coming in the opener against Western Carolina by a couple points. In their other home games, they didn't come close to covering against arguably the worst team in FBS(Kent) and then lost outright to BYU, Mississippi State and were thoroughly embarrassed by Auburn. Last week they got a defensive score and several short fields but still didn't really come close to covering against FIU. Eli Drinkwitz never missed a chance to run it up on conference opponents, and I doubt he'll do it here. The Tigers have a chance for 10 wins and their pass attack (ranked 9th) should have no issues moving the ball against the Arkansas pass defense(112th). I don't think this one will be close. Rumors are that the transfer portal is calling many of the Hogs, so if Pittman can coax an effort out of these guys to make the game competitive, hats off to him. Home games have been a horror show for the Hogs this year, and I don't see it getting any better this time.

This play seems "too easy" to me. I wonder how the books are trying to screw us?

Happy Thanksgiving and thank you

 

[KJ]

This play seems "too easy" to me. I wonder how the books are trying to screw us?

Not sure the way to line this. 14.5? Not even sure that gets Arky money. 20.5? Maybe where the actual final score ends up, but that would be so much exposure to Ark money.

Bad game for the books to line. Only thing against Mizzou is they know they aren't going to CFP and also know they'll end up likely in the Citrus Bowl regardless.

Thing with Mizzou is they have several skill guys that will play on Sundays and should want to raise that stock value any chance they get.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. Texas Tech +14 @Texas: Would have loved over 14 here, but I'll take two TDs. There have been zero upsets of any magnitude for any teams in the top 10 or so all year, but there are a few teams that need to be on alert with a lot of to lose. Could this week be where we get an avalanche of upsets? Probably not, but I'd count Texas as a team that has a ton to lose. Texas has the edge in pretty much every category, as you'd expect, but not really by much. Texas tech is already bowl eligible and has nothing to lose, and they'd love nothing more than to knock off the Longhorns. QB Behren Morton is healthy and the Raiders have played very well lately, knocking off Kansas on the road and beating UCF as a home dog last week. If not for Morton's injury a few weeks ago wen they had to use 3rd stringer Jake Strong, they would have beaten BYU and maybe K State and would be looking at a shot to get to 9 wins, that despite being very unlucky early in the year when they dropped two close ones to Wyoming and Oregon. Tech's offense is well balanced, as Morton is capable throwing it and Tajh Brooks has already run for 1300 yards this year. I think this is going to be competitive game.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Ohio State +3.5 @Michigan: That extra half point is valuable here in my opinion. It appears that both defenses should have the edge here as both offenses are flawed. Ohio State has flaws in the passing game as Kyle McCord has been just ok despite having among the best receiving corps in the country. Michigan's offensive line just hasn't been anywhere close to as dominant as last year. Blake Corum is averaging less than 5 yards per carry despite playing against an extremely weak schedule, and Donovan Edwards is a shell of himself, averaging only 3.4 yards per carry on the year. In addition to that, JJ McCarthy hasn't looked very trustworthy in the past couple weeks, and I think the reason that Michigan didn't even bother passing in the second half at Penn State was because they had no confidence that their OL could protect McCarthy. It's possible that McCarthy comes out and completes big play shots downfield, but he hasn't looked capable lately, and Ohio State is probably a bigger test than Penn State was. I think OSU has a better shot of being effective against the Michigan defense due to the improved health of Treyveon Henderson and Emeka Egbuka. Also, as much as it pains me to admit, I give the coaching edge to Ryan Day with Jim Harbaugh not being there. Actually, if Michigan shoves it down OSU's throats, I would love that embarrassment for Ryan Day, but I'd never be that lucky.

 

[sevenpointroaddog]

4. Iowa +3(-117) @Nebraska: I certainly don't like betting on Iowa, but I find myself asking, how can I not take 3 points here? I don't need to document how these Iowa games go when they play the also rans of the Big Ten. Everybody knows this. Iowa is 9-2, and nobody wants to even fathom them being a team that can win 10 games, but when you play defense like they do and then play a schedule full of derelict offenses, it starts to come into focus as to how it's possible. Nebraska is just the latest of the gaggle of offensively challenged teams in the Big Ten that will get into a taffy pull with Iowa. We can agree that Iowa uses a great defense, and even better punter and a bunch of luck to find a way to win games. We also know that Nebraska over the past 5-6 years has been a team that finds ways to lose games. Even now, with an objectively competent coach, they still have found ways to lose games in excruciating fashion via turnovers and bad offense. They lost by 3 at Minnesota, 3 at Michigan State and 3 at home to Maryland, all games they probably should have won but didn't, even with Matt Rhule at the helm. Last year the Huskers did the impossible and beat Iowa for the first time since 2014. These fanbases do not like each other, so it was a painful loss last year, one that knocked the Hawkeyes out of the Big Ten title game. They are locked in this year and Nebraska needs a win for a bowl, but Iowa will have motivation here. They'd like nothing better than to deprive Nebraska of the bow they want so badly. Nebraska has turned to Chubba Purdy, who looked decent for about a quarter and a half at Wisconsin last week before turning back into Chubba Purdy. Iowa is without Cooper DeJean, but they are so well coached that their depth guys know what they're doing as well. There is no way this Iowa defense will allow any daylight for a stiff like Purdy. Iowa can't play offense either, but they can play the field position game until they bust a long run, just like they do every week. Now that can get 3, even though I expect Iowa to win the game, I can win even if Nebraska finds a way to come out on top. The game is almost certainly going to be within a field goal, and there's a better than 50% chance Iowa wins outright anyway. It seems like a no brainer to take points in this scenario.

I'm with you, here. It's "must see TV" regarding the hilarious total of 25.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. Navy +19.5 @SMU: SMU has had a great year and looks dominant on paper, but they have played a total of 3 teams that I would consider mostly competent. That's Oklahoma, TCU and Memphis. They lost the first two and managed a 4 point victory against Memphis. The rest of their schedule is littered with terrible offenses, so it's no surprise that their defensive numbers look extremely good. None of that informs us as to how they'll play navy's option. Although Navy's offense has been on a bit of a decline over the past few years, here are the point totals the Middies have posted in the last 6 matchups between these two teams. 40, 31, 28, 37, 24 and 34 last year. If the Middies can put up a point total somewhere in that neighborhood, I think they've been playing good enough defense to be able to cover this number relatively easily. For the year, the Mids have stopped the run well, ranking 30th in the country in yards per rush against, similar to how well they played the run last year. They have also been very good on 3rd down(17th) and have been able to get pressure on the QB(11th in sack rate). Throw in that Navy is 8-2 as a road dog in their last 10 and 19.5 seems like a lot in this one.

 

[2daBank]

7. Missouri -9 @Arkansas: When I went to bed last night this was at 7.5, and I was having a hard time figuring out why it wasn't higher. Well, I got my wish because it's now 9. No matter, because i would probably lay up to 10, and if things go the way I think they will in this one, you probably can't make the line high enough. If you assumed motivation and subjective factors were neutral, I'd still like Missouri based on the advantages they have in the matchups on paper. Well, those things aren't close to neutral. To say that Arkansas is playing out the string is the understatement of the century. Also, the fact that we are getting Arkansas at home here makes it an auto play. Arkansas's only ATS success this year has come as a dog on the road, as they are 1-5 ATS at home with the only cover coming in the opener against Western Carolina by a couple points. In their other home games, they didn't come close to covering against arguably the worst team in FBS(Kent) and then lost outright to BYU, Mississippi State and were thoroughly embarrassed by Auburn. Last week they got a defensive score and several short fields but still didn't really come close to covering against FIU. Eli Drinkwitz never missed a chance to run it up on conference opponents, and I doubt he'll do it here. The Tigers have a chance for 10 wins and their pass attack (ranked 9th) should have no issues moving the ball against the Arkansas pass defense(112th). I don't think this one will be close. Rumors are that the transfer portal is calling many of the Hogs, so if Pittman can coax an effort out of these guys to make the game competitive, hats off to him. Home games have been a horror show for the Hogs this year, and I don't see it getting any better this time.

My biggest problem with laying more than a td with tigers is their damn coach, Drinkowitz does not like playing a style conducive for big numbers despite having a passing game more than capable of hanging huge numbers and a good running back to go with it! If the opponent offense isn’t having a lot of success they tend to play much uglier type of games as Drinkowitz seems perfectly content taking the air out the ball, it’s incredibly annoying when you see how much fire power/talent they have! I still think they coulda beat Uga with a more aggressive game plan instead of just keeping it close playing a scared ass style!!

Mizzou could without a doubt light up Arkansas pass d if they allow Cook to throw it 30+ times, unfortunately I just don’t think that will happen unless Arkansas offense can put up points. Obviously that doesn’t do a ton of good for laying over a td, only opening up the offense if razorbacks scoring!! If tigers d can limit Jefferson then we end up seeing Cook pass attempts down in the low 20s, way more rush attempts for Shrader which I don’t think the best way for them to attack this d. Drinkowitz don’t care tho, ever since cook threw the 2 int’s vs lsu he has limited Cook to seemingly least amount of passing attempts he can!! So so annoying and tends to keep games closer than they should be unless Schrader is simply running crazy while the d shutting things down.

I liked Gators getting double digits way more than im interested in playing Arkansas but I don’t think I can lay more than 7 either, although I have no clue bout the ark motivation factor or the transfer talk? I just assume this has become enough a rivalry we see razorbacks best effort, I suck at this tho so I could be wrong, lol . I do think Burden gonna have a big game, he generally is able to put up big numbers even if they not throwing enough for my taste (his recent games with pedestrian type numbers he had been dealing w a injury but he has proven capable of big games even when they limit Cook’s attempts and he appeared much healthier last week!) and he has a fantastic matchup here, I’d be surprised if he didn’t take one 40-50 yards! I kinda think ark offense might be able to put up low 20s which should force tigers to pass a bit more. I’d def play over before playing the dog here, tigers totals are so dependent on opponent imo.

Anyways lot of rambling and I don’t even have a play on the side, lol. I’m on Burden receiving yards ov 92.5 and smaller on cook over 262.5. The concern with cook is I’m pretty sure I have to be right bout ark scoring low 20s for him to throw enough. I don’t think Burden total it matters much, I expect his targets to be there regardless and don’t think ark has anyone to check him:., Hope mizzou crushes them for ya!!!

 

[2daBank]

9. Ohio State +3.5 @Michigan: That extra half point is valuable here in my opinion. It appears that both defenses should have the edge here as both offenses are flawed. Ohio State has flaws in the passing game as Kyle McCord has been just ok despite having among the best receiving corps in the country. Michigan's offensive line just hasn't been anywhere close to as dominant as last year. Blake Corum is averaging less than 5 yards per carry despite playing against an extremely weak schedule, and Donovan Edwards is a shell of himself, averaging only 3.4 yards per carry on the year. In addition to that, JJ McCarthy hasn't looked very trustworthy in the past couple weeks, and I think the reason that Michigan didn't even bother passing in the second half at Penn State was because they had no confidence that their OL could protect McCarthy. It's possible that McCarthy comes out and completes big play shots downfield, but he hasn't looked capable lately, and Ohio State is probably a bigger test than Penn State was. I think OSU has a better shot of being effective against the Michigan defense due to the improved health of Treyveon Henderson and Emeka Egbuka. Also, as much as it pains me to admit, I give the coaching edge to Ryan Day with Jim Harbaugh not being there. Actually, if Michigan shoves it down OSU's throats, I would love that embarrassment for Ryan Day, but I'd never be that lucky.

Hate we opposite here but I think you gonna get your wish with the Day “embarrassment”! Ohio st d is light years better than last few meetings so maybe I’m wrong but I really think all the cheating talk has just annoyed Michigan to the point they lay one on buckeyes!! Harbaugh not being on sideline doesn’t mean a whole lot to me, he coached them all week, probably calling in at halftime: not much a issue imo., just don’t think Michigan gonna get beat by osu offense which kinda a one man wr show at times. Like I always say tho, at least one of us win!!! Gl buddy

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. Troy -16 @Southern Miss: Southern Miss has actually turned their fortunes around over the past few weeks, having put up a slew of yards on Appy State's defense in a close loss and then knocking off ULM and LaLa in consecutive weeks. It was quite a turnaround because they looked dead as a doornail prior to that. However, they are now playing one of the heavyweights of the SBC, and the last time they did that, South Alabama ran them out of the stadium with a 55-3 thrashing, featuring a 647-149 edge in yardage. Southern Miss can't throw the ball, so they depend on Frank Gore to run it and to find some trick plays here and there. That's not going to work against Troy, who doesn't let anyone run on them, ranks 10th in the country in 3rd downs and gets tons of pressure on the QB. Offensively, Gunnar Watson has surprisingly been one of the most efficient QBs in the country, with a 24/4 ratio. IN 4 road games since their loss at K State, they've beaten Army, Texas State, Georgia State and ULM on the road by significantly more than this line. There is no category on paper that troy doesn't have a major edge in. Last year in a similar spot prior to the Sun Belt title game, Troy went on the road and took care of business at Arkansas State by 29. This is a bad matchup for USM, I think Troy will win this one going away.

 

[sevenpointroaddog]

4. Iowa +3(-117) @Nebraska: I certainly don't like betting on Iowa, but I find myself asking, how can I not take 3 points here? I don't need to document how these Iowa games go when they play the also rans of the Big Ten. Everybody knows this. Iowa is 9-2, and nobody wants to even fathom them being a team that can win 10 games, but when you play defense like they do and then play a schedule full of derelict offenses, it starts to come into focus as to how it's possible. Nebraska is just the latest of the gaggle of offensively challenged teams in the Big Ten that will get into a taffy pull with Iowa. We can agree that Iowa uses a great defense, and even better punter and a bunch of luck to find a way to win games. We also know that Nebraska over the past 5-6 years has been a team that finds ways to lose games. Even now, with an objectively competent coach, they still have found ways to lose games in excruciating fashion via turnovers and bad offense. They lost by 3 at Minnesota, 3 at Michigan State and 3 at home to Maryland, all games they probably should have won but didn't, even with Matt Rhule at the helm. Last year the Huskers did the impossible and beat Iowa for the first time since 2014. These fanbases do not like each other, so it was a painful loss last year, one that knocked the Hawkeyes out of the Big Ten title game. They are locked in this year and Nebraska needs a win for a bowl, but Iowa will have motivation here. They'd like nothing better than to deprive Nebraska of the bow they want so badly. Nebraska has turned to Chubba Purdy, who looked decent for about a quarter and a half at Wisconsin last week before turning back into Chubba Purdy. Iowa is without Cooper DeJean, but they are so well coached that their depth guys know what they're doing as well. There is no way this Iowa defense will allow any daylight for a stiff like Purdy. Iowa can't play offense either, but they can play the field position game until they bust a long run, just like they do every week. Now that can get 3, even though I expect Iowa to win the game, I can win even if Nebraska finds a way to come out on top. The game is almost certainly going to be within a field goal, and there's a better than 50% chance Iowa wins outright anyway. It seems like a no brainer to take points in this scenario.

HAHAHAHA!!!! Now that this game is over, I must ask...do you have tomorrow's paper in your hands? Ha!

 

[Br@ssknux]

HAHAHAHA!!!! Now that this game is over, I must ask...do you have tomorrow's paper in your hands? Ha!

Thanks SPRD....but for some reason, that's the only early Friday game that got reported on. They forgot TCU and BC. LOL

 

[Br@ssknux]

Nice defensive effort by TCU by the way. 45 points...you'd think that would do the trick when you're getting double digits. No ill effects from Gabriel's bell ringing. LOL

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. @LSU -11(-115) v Texas A&M: My numbers actually point pretty heavily to taking he points here with A&M, but the situation dictates a different approach to this one. I don't believe I've backed LSU all year, mostly due to my avoidance of laying points with terrible defenses, but in this case, I'm not as worried. First of all, even though A&M has been good on defense for most of the year, they've played the bully against bad offenses, but against good passing offenses, they've been torched by the only 3 they've faced. Miami, Alabama and Ole Miss all easily topped 300 passing yards, and I don't think I'd even call Miami a good passing offense since they played that game. Daniels from LSU is obviously playing for the Heisman and he has two top notch receivers in Nabors and Brian Thomas to throw to, both of whom have already topped 1,000 yards on the year. No doubt Kelly is looking to do his part for Daniels, and he needs a huge game since he won't be playing next week. A&M also rubbed it in after they got a rare win over the Tigers last year, and I'm sure Kelly remembers that. Offensively, although LSU has been bad defensively, A&M is down to their 3rd string QB, Jaylen Henderson. His numbers have been good, but they were in home games against Abilene Christian and Mississippi State. Things tend to change when inexperienced QBs go on the road. A&M is focused on who their next coach is going to be, they're just playing out the string. They'll have to come up with at least 40 points to cover this IMO, and I don't see that happening.

 

[gps_3]

LSU will do everything they can to ensure that Daniels gets the Heisman. I’m on the over for now, will likely go big on lsu team over too

 

[2daBank]

Nice defensive effort by TCU by the way. 45 points...you'd think that would do the trick when you're getting double digits. No ill effects from Gabriel's bell ringing. LOL

I didn’t have a chance to do the early games but I feel like the more Nic Anderson makes a impact it makes Sooners offense so much better, he that outside blow the top off defense deep threat they need to be able to open up the shorter and intermediate stuff. If you gotta leave a safety over the top Gabriel to stoops is damn near impossible to stop from moving the chains. Just look at stoops numbers and how good they get since amderson has started to become that consistent deep threat!!

 

[2daBank]

Freaking mizzou d shutting things down which good but also bad cause Drink doesn’t let them be aggressive.,

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. @Louisville -7.5 v Kentucky: I was hoping this would move down to 7, but I can't find it. This shapes up to be a bad matchup for Kentucky. They are reliant on RB Ray Davis, but when they've played good run defenses, they've been stymied offensively. Louisville hasn't given up much on the ground all year, ranking 17th in yards per rush against, and they've been great on 3rd down, which Kentucky will likely find themselves in on almost every series of downs. Devin Leary has been a bit better lately, but he's been really pedestrian all year in the passing game, and the Kentucky receivers have had all kinds of problems with drops. Kentucky has struggled with good passing offenses, and although Jack Plummer is a bit erratic, he's averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and RB Jawahr Jordan is already over 1000 yards for the year. Brohm has continued Louisville's solid record as a home favorite as the Cards are now 10-4 in their last 14 in that role. Louisville can grab their 11th win here and they'll be motivated, as Kentucky handled them last year in Lexington. The Wildcats have lost 5 of 6, and Louisville is unlikely to be overlooking them in this spot. I think the Cards will be able to score here, and Kentucky is headed in the wrong direction. Like the favorite here.

 

[EL CAPO]

13. @Louisville -7.5 v Kentucky: I was hoping this would move down to 7, but I can't find it. This shapes up to be a bad matchup for Kentucky. They are reliant on RB Ray Davis, but when they've played good run defenses, they've been stymied offensively. Louisville hasn't given up much on the ground all year, ranking 17th in yards per rush against, and they've been great on 3rd down, which Kentucky will likely find themselves in on almost every series of downs. Devin Leary has been a bit better lately, but he's been really pedestrian all year in the passing game, and the Kentucky receivers have had all kinds of problems with drops. Kentucky has struggled with good passing offenses, and although Jack Plummer is a bit erratic, he's averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and RB Jawahr Jordan is already over 1000 yards for the year. Brohm has continued Louisville's solid record as a home favorite as the Cards are now 10-4 in their last 14 in that role. Louisville can grab their 11th win here and they'll be motivated, as Kentucky handled them last year in Lexington. The Wildcats have lost 5 of 6, and Louisville is unlikely to be overlooking them in this spot. I think the Cards will be able to score here, and Kentucky is headed in the wrong direction. Like the favorite here.

feels like there is a good share of these "rivalry" games with superior teams laying right on or near the 7......lville, fsu - uf, clemson - south carolina, missouri -ark......kind of like the fav in all of them

 

[Br@ssknux]

UTSA has turned the ball over 5 times and failed on 4th down 3 times. They've turned in about as weak assed an effort as possible, and Tulane has 23 points. What a joke that game has been.

 

[Br@ssknux]

14. Maryland -1.5 @Rutgers: In order for Rutgers to have any success offensively, they have to be able to run the ball. Gavin Wimsatt hasn't been able to throw the ball effectively with any consistency all year, and as a result they can't convert third downs. Unfortunately for Rutgers, Maryland has been solid on that side of the ball, especially against the run. In addition, they're 25th on third down, which is going to make it hard for the Scarlett Knights to stay on the field. Maryland looked like they were on the verge of falling apart a few weeks ago after their annual destruction against Penn State, but they bounced back nicely at Nebraska, getting a win and then gave Michigan all they could handle, boosting their confidence. Rutgers is terrible in this spot, having gone 2-10 as a home dog since Schiano came back to Piscataway. They've also gone 1-4 straight up in their last 5 against Maryland, and the Terps have laid the wood the past two years, winning by scores of 40-16 and 37-0. Locksley doesn't have too many people's numbers, but he's got Rutgers figured out.

 

[Br@ssknux]

15. Northwestern +6 @Illinois: Illinois needs this win to get to bowl eligibility in an admittedly terrible season, and I hope they get it, but I have a hard time seeing them cover this one, based on how they've played this year. They are a maddening team to root for, constantly killing themselves with penalties on both sides of the ball, especially on defense in the secondary. They are apparently not smart enough to make mostly terrible pass offenses actually convert third downs, choosing instead to clutch and grab at jerseys and gift conversions instead. Illinois has now failed to cover 8 consecutive home games, including all 6 that they've played this year. They are laying 6 in this game but haven't beaten anyone by more than 6 all year. Northwestern has been good defensively this year, ranking 29th in yards per play against. Northwestern can be run on, but Illinois has had so many injuries at running back that they are really struggling to run the ball behind a line that has struggled to move people most of the year. I suspect they'll rely on John Paddock and the passing game to get points for them but Northwestern is 18th in yards per attempt against in the passing game. I think Northwestern is definitely pesky enough to stick around in this one, and Illinois has spent the whole year finding ways to be inefficient on the scoreboard. 6 is a lot to ask of this Illinois team, especially against a surprisingly decent Northwestern team.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Behren Morton is LIGHTING IT UP! Up to 1.7 yards per attempt! He's still managed 2 picks though.

 

[gps_3]

13. @Louisville -7.5 v Kentucky: I was hoping this would move down to 7, but I can't find it. This shapes up to be a bad matchup for Kentucky. They are reliant on RB Ray Davis, but when they've played good run defenses, they've been stymied offensively. Louisville hasn't given up much on the ground all year, ranking 17th in yards per rush against, and they've been great on 3rd down, which Kentucky will likely find themselves in on almost every series of downs. Devin Leary has been a bit better lately, but he's been really pedestrian all year in the passing game, and the Kentucky receivers have had all kinds of problems with drops. Kentucky has struggled with good passing offenses, and although Jack Plummer is a bit erratic, he's averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and RB Jawahr Jordan is already over 1000 yards for the year. Brohm has continued Louisville's solid record as a home favorite as the Cards are now 10-4 in their last 14 in that role. Louisville can grab their 11th win here and they'll be motivated, as Kentucky handled them last year in Lexington. The Wildcats have lost 5 of 6, and Louisville is unlikely to be overlooking them in this spot. I think the Cards will be able to score here, and Kentucky is headed in the wrong direction. Like the favorite here.

Someone posted on Twitter that if you take away the Florida game, Davis is a below average SEC RB. I'm with you on this one

 

[Br@ssknux]

16. West Virginia -11 @Baylor: This line just moved a couple points from 9, but much like Arkansas, Baylor's an auto fade this year at home. In their FBS home games this year they've lost to Texas State by 11, Texas by 32, Texas Tech by 25, Iowa State by 12 and even Houston in a last minute OT loss. I'm not sure what the status of Dave Aranda's tenure is at Baylor, but they are clearly playing out the string. West Virginia has been playing all year with a chip on their shoulder after being picked for last in the league and they check in with a 7-4 record positioned for a nice bowl appearance. They have clear edge in just about every meaningful category in this one, and it's no wonder. Baylor ranks poorly in every defensive category. They're 125th in yards per play against, 110th against the run, 126th against the pass, 125th on 3rd down and 101st in sack rate. I'm frankly not sure what happened to Baylor this year, but not faing them at home at this point is missing an opportunity.

 

[Eric Antrobus]

13. @Louisville -7.5 v Kentucky: I was hoping this would move down to 7, but I can't find it. This shapes up to be a bad matchup for Kentucky. They are reliant on RB Ray Davis, but when they've played good run defenses, they've been stymied offensively. Louisville hasn't given up much on the ground all year, ranking 17th in yards per rush against, and they've been great on 3rd down, which Kentucky will likely find themselves in on almost every series of downs. Devin Leary has been a bit better lately, but he's been really pedestrian all year in the passing game, and the Kentucky receivers have had all kinds of problems with drops. Kentucky has struggled with good passing offenses, and although Jack Plummer is a bit erratic, he's averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and RB Jawahr Jordan is already over 1000 yards for the year. Brohm has continued Louisville's solid record as a home favorite as the Cards are now 10-4 in their last 14 in that role. Louisville can grab their 11th win here and they'll be motivated, as Kentucky handled them last year in Lexington. The Wildcats have lost 5 of 6, and Louisville is unlikely to be overlooking them in this spot. I think the Cards will be able to score here, and Kentucky is headed in the wrong direction. Like the favorite here.

Definitely won’t overlook them. UK has won 4 in a row vs Louisville. Average margin of victory is 24. UL should end the streak this year. Leary has been a disaster. Hope I’m wrong but I’ll probably be with you.

 

[Br@ssknux]

17. @Kansas State -10 v Iowa State: Iowa State was won 6 games, including 3 on the road in the Big 12, but those 3 have been at Baylor, at Cincinnati and at BYU, so they've basically won games against the bottom of the Big 12. Their other Big 12 road game was at Oklahoma, and they lost that one by 30. They've improved on offense, but again, they've played a weak batch of Big 12 defenses. Now they face Kansas State, who resembles Oklahoma in quality a lot more than they do the other 3. K State still has a shot at a Big 12 title game appearance, but they have to win this game for it to be possible. The Wildcats are 19th in yards per attempt against in pass defense and 5th on 3rd down, and Iowa State struggles to run it, which will probably lead to a lot of 3rd downs for the Cyclones against a defense that excels at getting off the field. It also makes a lot of sense to back the Wildcats at home as a favorite, as they are 13-3 since '21 in that role.

 

[bones]

17. @Kansas State -10 v Iowa State: Iowa State was won 6 games, including 3 on the road in the Big 12, but those 3 have been at Baylor, at Cincinnati and at BYU, so they've basically won games against the bottom of the Big 12. They're other Big 12 road game was at Oklahoma, and they lost that one by 30. They've improved on offense, but again, they've played a weak batch of Big 12 defenses. Now they face Kansas State, who resembles Oklahoma in quality a lot more than they do the other 3. K State still has a shot at a Big 12 title game appearance, but they have to win this game for it to be possible. The Wildcats are 19th in yards per attempt against in pass defense and 5th on 3rd down, and Iowa State struggles to run it, which will probably lead to a lot of 3rd downs for the Cyclones against a defense that excels at getting off the field. It also makes a lot of sense to back the Wildcats at home as a favorite, as they are 13-3 since '21 in that role.

Agree....I am currently too much of tight wad to bet it. GL. Good call on Mizzu....i tailed you at last minute

 

[Timh]

BOL Brass!

 

[M.W.]

13. @Louisville -7.5 v Kentucky: I was hoping this would move down to 7, but I can't find it. This shapes up to be a bad matchup for Kentucky. They are reliant on RB Ray Davis, but when they've played good run defenses, they've been stymied offensively. Louisville hasn't given up much on the ground all year, ranking 17th in yards per rush against, and they've been great on 3rd down, which Kentucky will likely find themselves in on almost every series of downs. Devin Leary has been a bit better lately, but he's been really pedestrian all year in the passing game, and the Kentucky receivers have had all kinds of problems with drops. Kentucky has struggled with good passing offenses, and although Jack Plummer is a bit erratic, he's averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and RB Jawahr Jordan is already over 1000 yards for the year. Brohm has continued Louisville's solid record as a home favorite as the Cards are now 10-4 in their last 14 in that role. Louisville can grab their 11th win here and they'll be motivated, as Kentucky handled them last year in Lexington. The Wildcats have lost 5 of 6, and Louisville is unlikely to be overlooking them in this spot. I think the Cards will be able to score here, and Kentucky is headed in the wrong direction. Like the favorite here.

Also, Brohm at Purdue won and covered all his season-ending rivalry games against Indiana. Satterfield didn't seem to know how to handle a big rivalry game, 0-4 SU and ATS, with some very puzzling blowout losses.

 

[Timh]

17. @Kansas State -10 v Iowa State: Iowa State was won 6 games, including 3 on the road in the Big 12, but those 3 have been at Baylor, at Cincinnati and at BYU, so they've basically won games against the bottom of the Big 12. Their other Big 12 road game was at Oklahoma, and they lost that one by 30. They've improved on offense, but again, they've played a weak batch of Big 12 defenses. Now they face Kansas State, who resembles Oklahoma in quality a lot more than they do the other 3. K State still has a shot at a Big 12 title game appearance, but they have to win this game for it to be possible. The Wildcats are 19th in yards per attempt against in pass defense and 5th on 3rd down, and Iowa State struggles to run it, which will probably lead to a lot of 3rd downs for the Cyclones against a defense that excels at getting off the field. It also makes a lot of sense to back the Wildcats at home as a favorite, as they are 13-3 since '21 in that role.

Brass wondering if you watched this game! I could not believe the explosive plays by Iowa State in this game! KST tackling on the second level was just so bad, looked like they were afraid they were going to slip in the snow but it certainly didn't bother Abacadabra

 

[2daBank]

Also, Brohm at Purdue won and covered all his season-ending rivalry games against Indiana. Satterfield didn't seem to know how to handle a big rivalry game, 0-4 SU and ATS, with some very puzzling blowout losses.

Satterfield doesn’t know how to handle much of anything. He has his moments as a play designer but he sucks in game, sucks never havinv his teams prepared to give a consistent effort, and when the plays he draws up not working he has basically no answer!

all that said I’ve thought ville was incredibly fugazi this year, This coach did a great job but they not a top 20 team imo. Imo they never woooda beat Irish if not for the fact ND was simply out of gas coming into that game!! the problem was every time I went against villw they played their best or the other team played their worst! Lol, I have no clue what the Fuxk to expect vs noles? I woulda happily laid 2 Tds with Travis healthy but no clue now?? Really want ville to win, I feel for noles and Travis but there other far more deserving teams to be in the final 4. Noles earned the spot so it sucks but I would not give them one the spots whether they win or not cause we all know they have no chance vs the other top teams without Travis. It a shitty situation but I don’t think committee has the guts to leave them out if they beat ville so I’m in a awful spot of rooting for a ville team I can’t stand! Lol. I do think ville losing this past week actually gives them a better chance vs noles.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Brass wondering if you watched this game! I could not believe the explosive plays by Iowa State in this game! KST tackling on the second level was just so bad, looked like they were afraid they were going to slip in the snow but it certainly didn't bother Abacadabra

I did Timmy! It was ridiculous. I guess we should have known K State would give up almost 15 yards per play overall and 11.2 yards per rush to the 91st ranked rushing offense in the country.