Thanksgiving week Writeups and Hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Hello all. A bad week last week at 5-8 dropped the total to 92-65, just under 60%. Thanks as always for reading.


1. Iowa -1.5 @Nebraska: Although the public is pretty solidly in their corner, all the talking heads are not. I have seen at least 3 different people predict a win for Nebraska here, and I thin the Hawkeyes are certainly taking notice. Although I'm sure the noose is starting to tighten around Iowa's neck, I think they have a major advantage when they are on offense (Nebraska 79th in yards per play and 76th in passer rating against, and Iowa's defense has been consistently very good all year. I am sure the chances are good that Nebraska can rise up and beat Iowa, but I just don't see this Husker team, under Riley as being capable of pulling off a major win over a previously undefeated team twice in the same season. This team just isn't good enough to pull off something like that. Also remember that Iowa is 13-5 ATS on the road since 2012 and 8-1 ATS as a road favorite. They are also in a revenge situation after dropping last year's game at home to the Huskers. I just think it's in the cards that the Hawkeyes take care of business here. They won't beat themselves.
 
2. Washington State +7 @ Washington: This line is all the way up to 7 because WAZZOU will be without sophomore signal caller Luke Falk, who is almost certainly out with a concussion. It's always a blow to lose your starter, but Falk himself was just a newcomer into the position a mere 3 months ago, so forgive me if I don't see this as a huge loss. Freshman Payton Bender has logged significant minutes at the position this year and is well regarded, so I think it's likely that regardless of the D, WSU is going to put up points. Washington also doesn't have the kind of offense that strikes fear into the porous defense's heart, as they rank in the 70's or 80's in every meaningful offensive stat. The Cougs have also been very good on defense in recent weeks, holding Stanford to barely 300 total yards. These guys have to be given the benefit of the doubt..they are 8-3 getting points from a 5-6 squad, and they have been consistently outgaining teams by significant amounts. Getting a solid point total with these guys is very appetizing, given their performance this year.
 
Brassknux: I read your thread every week & don't comment. Just want to thank you. I was leaning this way in both games too. Going with them.:shake: thank you
 
3. @Western Kentucky -10.5 v Marshall: Interestingly enough, the public is pretty heavy on this dog, and when I started capping this game, I was admittedly looking to find a way to play on Marshall. I've found a few reasons to play them, as Phil Steele is on them as well as a couple of other sources that I typically trust, but nobody seems to be able to explain how Marshall is going to scrimmage with these guys. I realize that Marshall has a great recent history, and that they've put together another nice year on the strength of their defense, but I am still not sold. First of all, there is no need to sell anyone on the WKU offense. By any measure, yards per play, rush offense, offensive efficiency, whatever, WKU grades out fantastically on the offensive end even after adjusting for their schedule. Marshall ranks high on defense too, but a closer look at their results casts a little doubt on their overall performance and their ability to match up with this offense on the road.They haven't played many offenses that can move the ball like WKU. Southern Miss would be one, and they held their own in that one, but the game was in Huntington, and they were outgained by almost 200 yards, one of the more deceiving final scores of the season (31-10). Another one, but not one in the class of WKU would be Middle Tennessee who they played on the road, and MTSU gashed them for 7.1 yards per play. In other forays on the road, they were beaten and outgained by Ohio U and were outgained by 159 yards in an overtime win at Kent State. Offensively, although they've been better in recent weeks against shitty defenses, I don't think they will be able to trade scores with WKU, as the Hilltoppers have been much better on defense this year than they've been historically, and I actually show that WKU even has the edge in the run game and on 3rd down on that side of the ball. Typically I would almost never pass up double digit points with a 9-2 squad, but in this case I think Marshall is a bit of a fraud and I think WKU has the offense to expose them and the motivation to get it done in this defacto division championship game.
 
I don't know about everyone else, but i am having a hard time with this Friday card, and i can't seem to find any info out there as to any injury updates on guys like Greg Ward and Boykin.

These lines are pretty tight in my opinion. I can see some ways to go on these games, but at the end the of the day, I just can't pull the trigger. For example, I am a Navy guy, but typically not when they are favored against a 10-1 team. Houston would have loads of value in my opinion, but who knows who is going to play QB for them, and Farrow is banged up as well. Just too many question marks to make an informed play on that game.

Same thing with TCU/Baylor. Great potential value with TCU potentially getting points at home, but they show up as as the favorite and we still don't know how effective Boykin might be, or if he'll even play(it seems like he will)? Just a strange scenario.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. Washington State +7 @ Washington: This line is all the way up to 7 because WAZZOU will be without sophomore signal caller Luke Falk, who is almost certainly out with a concussion. It's always a blow to lose your starter, but Falk himself was just a newcomer into the position a mere 3 months ago, so forgive me if I don't see this as a huge loss. Freshman Payton Bender has logged significant minutes at the position this year and is well regarded, so I think it's likely that regardless of the D, WSU is going to put up points. Washington also doesn't have the kind of offense that strikes fear into the porous defense's heart, as they rank in the 70's or 80's in every meaningful offensive stat. The Cougs have also been very good on defense in recent weeks, holding Stanford to barely 300 total yards. These guys have to be given the benefit of the doubt..they are 8-3 getting points from a 5-6 squad, and they have been consistently outgaining teams by significant amounts. Getting a solid point total with these guys is very appetizing, given their performance this year.
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Knew this one was here before even opening.......I was all over the UW when I thought this line was goign to be in the 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 range, but a juiced 7 right now feels like a ton....I will get some of the UW side, but likely in some type of ML parlay

GL BKnux....great stuff as always
 
4. Ohio State pk @Michigan: Ohio State comes into this game having played without a doubt the worst offensive game in Urban Meyer's tenure in Columnus. Only 134 total yards, and they completely avoided the two things that made their offense so devastating in the past. 1. They didn;t bother handing the ball to Ezekiel Elliott and 2, they didn't even try throwing the ball downfield to their playmakers. I am completely expecting the Buckeyes to make amends and play their best game of the year. There's no way Meyer, who in my opinion has has only Saban as a peer as far as coaching acumen will allow another subpar effort. Defensively there is nothing wrong, and I think Rudock and company will have a hard time moving the ball as well. Michigan has had good success in recent years in this game, but in most cases they were huge underdogs, and that won't be the case this year. OSU isn't currently dogged in this game, but the situation is pretty close, and we all know that Meyer has been unbeatable in that role since he came on board (6-0 straight up as a n underdog at OSU). I think OSU bounces back strong and wins this one.
 
5. Southern Miss +5.5 @ Louisiana Tech: Both of these teams have had nice years with 8-3 records, and it's been especially welcome for Southern Miss who went through some brutal seasons since the departure of Larry Fedora to North Carolina a few seasons ago. In my opinion, both of these teams are solid squads, I just like Southern Miss a bit better. Louisiana Tech's MO is to run it with Kenneth Dixon, but USM has been very good against the run, so Jeff Driskel will probably have to be effective for the Bulldogs to run away with this. On the flip side, I see a major advantage for USM in the passing game, as they have been able to throw it on everyone with QB Nick Mullens(8th in the country in passer rating), and La Tech has had problems stopping the pass(75th). The Golden Eagles are also much better on 3rd down on both sides of the ball, and they are more explosive than La Tech is. Against very similar competition, So Miss has outgained their opponents by 186 yards per game while la Tech has outgained their foes by 107. I'll take the points with what I feel is the slightly better squad.
 
6. Georgia -4 @ Georgia Tech: Although Georgia has been criticized for their lackluster play over the past several weeks of the season, this is still an 8-3 team, and one that only has to lay 4 against a 3-8 team that they are looking for revenge against after getting beaten on their home field in the finale last year. In this series, the visitor has had more success, and I think Georgia is going to continue that this week. GT QB Justin Thomas looks like he is going to play despite getting his bell rung last week in their game with Miami, which was about the 7th or 8th time this year that GT has failed to give a decent effort. Their offense has struggled all year, especially on 3rd down, a rarity for an option squad, and Thomas hasn't been able to get anything going in the passing game, which is out of character for him. Georgia's defense has been stout all year, so I expect them to keep GT on the skids they've been on for most of the year. In addition, despite their offensive troubles, Georgia still has the ability to run the ball, and GT is ranked 86th in the country against the run. In my opinion, GT is playing with one foot out the door, and Georgia has a score to settle. As long as we don't have a bunch of special teams or turnover shenanigans, I think the Dawgs will take care of business here, something like 26-13.
 
jimmymo said:
Knew this one was here before even opening.......I was all over the UW when I thought this line was goign to be in the 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 range, but a juiced 7 right now feels like a ton....I will get some of the UW side, but likely in some type of ML parlay

GL BKnux....great stuff as always
Click to expand...

Thanks Jimmy.......Yeah, I was going to be on WAZZOU pretty much in any case where they are getting significant points. They've been too good not to, especially in a week where I'm not finding a ton of viable dogs to back. If you identified Washington early, that's a good call by you. Definitely could see the logic in it, but the Cougs have been good to me this year, and I actually thought they matched up pretty well. Usually they are able to get yards and points on just about anyone. Wheels fell off for them today.
 
Eggman...Raiders.....:shake:


Raiders, who is that in your avi? Familiar but i can't place it. Top notch!
 
Thanks again, mr b n. I joined you on Iowa, Wash St and WKU.
Haven't got to Saturday yet, but Jawja is certainly likely. I have had good success with USM, but they face a tough task tomorrow. I think that I have not bet on a tOSU game all year. Good luck to you.
 
7. @Kentucky +6 v Louisville: A close look at the stats indicates that these two teams are very similar, and even though Kentucky's defensive stats don't jump off the page at you, they still figure to have the edge in all phases on that side of the ball. The same is true when Kentucky has the ball, but the Wildcats have run the ball very effectively this year and their top runner Boom Williams finally appears to be healthy after having various injuries pretty much all year. Kentucky needs this win to get to bowl eligibility, will have a supportive crowd on hand and played a heavily favored Louisville squad tough last year in Pap John's stadium, so they should be confident. Back to back road games for the Cards and they are on a 1-4 run in the last 5, all as a favorite, away from their road dog comfort zone. I think the Cats have a pretty good shot at the outright, as this might be the most important game Mark Stoops has coached at Kentucky.
 
8. Indiana -6.5 v Purdue: Indiana has a solid edge in just about every category on paper, and that's even after their offensive numbers are skewed a bit by the period of time that Nate Sudfeld was out of the lineup and IU slogged through the Penn State using non-threat of any kind Zander Diamont at QB. Purdue has been bad on defense and especially so at home, as they are unable to play without any pressure at home because there exits at least some expectation for competence and a modicum of attention to detail by the opponent. IU has hit its stride now that the offense is fully healthy, and I think they will be playing with passion as they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Surprisingly enough, as a road favorite, despite much practice at it, the Hoosiers are 4-2 ATS over the past few years, and Purdue is 4-14 ATS as a home dog under Hazell. For Purdue to cover this, they will have to pay much better than they've played for most of the year, probably as well as they played against Nebraska, and I'd say the chances of them repeating that fluke are exceedingly low.
 
9. Penn State +11 @ Michigan State: I actually have no interest investing in any game in which I have to hope for any smidgen of competence from the captain of the All-Atrocious team, the feckless Christian Hackenberg, but here I find myself once again. This is really more of a play against the terrible performances Michigan State has conjured up as a favorite this year, which has led to them sporting a 2-7 ATS record when laying points this year. Also, I can't imagine another team performance on par with what they delivered last week, especially if Connor Cook does not play, something that appears increasingly likely if the Spartans can get away with it. Despite their inability to stop Michigan in crunch time last week, Penn State still sports some gaudy defensive numbers, 9th in overall yards per play, 29th against eh run and 11th in passer rating against. If Penn State puts together any kind of decent performance on offense, the Nits should have a great shot at the cover, just like 7 of the 9 dogs the Spartans have faced this year have been able to manage.
 
Thanks CC.

10. UCLA +3 @USC: IN the 3 years that Jim Mora has been coach for UCLA, the Bruins are 3-0 against the Trojans and have covered each time by an average of 17 per game. USC has been pretty good on offense, but has not seemed to be able to get big offensive performances when it needed them. Their defense, however, is another story. The Trojans are ranked 74th in yards per play, 96th in passer rating against and 32nd against the run, which isn't bad. UCLA is much better on defense, especially against the pass which is USC's forte. I like the on paper matchup for UCLA, and I definitely think I have the better defense. Not much of a HFA for USC as UCLA is almost as close to the Coliseum. I have a feeling UCLA will continue their strong play against USC and win this game outright, so I'll certainly take the FG.
 
11. Alabama -14.5 @Auburn: There is of course quite a history between these schools, especially in the last few years, and you can make a case that Auburn has forced Alabama to play poorly in recent years. That might be the case, but when Auburn has been mediocre to bad, Bama has bludgeoned them (2012, 2011). This Auburn team just isn't very good on either side of the ball. I don't think Sean White, or Jeremy Johnson or even Stan White for that matter will have any success against this Bama outfit. Also, throw in the obligatory INT for a score and/or a 78 yard line plunge that you have to spot the Tide and Auburn's going to be hard pressed to compete in this game.
 
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12. @Utah State +3 v BYU: These two teams are probably as evenly matched as I've seen two teams look on paper. Prettty much every statistical measure has the defenses slightly ahead of the offenses. The teams are about dead even in special teams. BYU has outgained their FBS opponents by 27 yards per game, Utah State by 23, and although you might assume that BYU's schedule is superior to Utah State's, you'd actually be wrong about that. They've played 2 common opponents (Boise and Fresno) and the yardage totals in those games are within 10 yards of each other. Basically, it's a dead heat between these 2. With that being the case, one has a bowl locked up and one doesn't; one is playing with the added motivation of playing "Big Brother" and the other doesn't; one is playing at home and the other isn't, and one is getting a field goal and the other isn't. Throw in the fact that Utah State has covered 6 of the last 7 between these two and I think there's enough to make a play on the Aggies.
 
13. @MIssissippi State +2 v Ole Miss: This is another game where the two teams are extremely evenly matched. Looking at the stats and results of the season, I would make this game a pick em on a neutral field. Both offenses can throw the ball, both struggle to run it. Mississippi State does a slightly better job on 3rd down. Other than that, you aren't going to find much difference between these two teams. Having said all that, I do find quite a bit of value in having the home team in this series, as the home team has covered 6 out of the last 7.Also remember that MSU is playing with revenge, as Ole Miss knocked them out of the playoff chase last year. I also think I'll have the better QB, and certainly the one less likely to throw it to the other team. It adds up to value for the home team in my opinion.
 
14. Notre Dame +3.5 @Stanford: I realize Stanford is a good team, but I think this squad has been a bit overrated all year. Statistically, they aren't the same Stanford that we've been accustomed to on defense. Top 5 finishes in the past have given way to middle of the road marks in just about every statistical category. 58th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 56th in yards per play against, 54th against the run, etc. Notre Dame, on the other hand, has been rock solid on offense, ranking in the top 10 just about everywhere despite a ton of injuries. They won't have CJ Prosise this week, but they have a ton of depth and I'd expect them to carry on as usual. There is also a huge motivational edge for the Irish here, as they still have everything to play for with a big road win here while Stanford's cake has already been baked...they are in the Pac 12 title game regardless of the outcome of this one for a rematch with either UCLA or USC, and their 2 losses eliminates them from playoff consideration. ND will have to have an answer for Christian McCaffrey, but I think they'll have enough success on offense to find a way to get the W they have to have n this one.
 
15. @Florida +3(-115) v Florida State: Everyone has seen how Florida has looked over the past few games on offense, most notably the two debacles against FAU and Vandy, but this is a completely different motivational angle here. They are still in complete control of their destiny, and they come into this game as a FG dog on their home turf against an FSU team that has beaten them the past 2 years. The motivational edge is without question hugely in Florida's favor, so there must be a major edge on the field with Florida state, right? Well, not really. Florida has held all but one of their opponents to season lows in yards and I see a pretty significant edge for the Gators on that side of the ball. Dalvin Cook remains banged up, and I don't know if Jimbo Fisher has any idea who is going to be playing QB for him when it comes down to crunch time in this game. The last time we saw Florida as a home dog they butchered Ole Miss, and I think JIm McElwain(who has won 14 straight at home going back to his days in Ft Collins) will have them armed with a good plan. Huge game for the Gators here...I'll take the points.
 
Thanks again BK, great write ups as usual.
With you on many.
Should be a great day of football and hope you have a winning day:shake:
 
Concur with the rest , your thoughts are much appreciated each and every year.


Like Indy too.

GL
 
Still waiting for the 3 pick 6's or 80 yard Derrick Henry line plunges I'm entitled to as an Alabama bettor.....it's the damn second quarter already.
 
Also, I must say that I believe Christian Hackenberg to be perhaps the most excrutiatingly bad quarterback to watch play football that I have ever come across.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Also, I must say that I believe Christian Hackenberg to be perhaps the most excrutiatingly bad quarterback to watch play football that I have ever come across.
Click to expand...

As an OSU fan, I refuse to even watch the game.

I took PSU last week vs mich and swore never again...
 
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