Tennis tips thread

Wikeman

Wikeman

A Winner in Life
I hereby challenge myself to provide 50+ random tennis tips over the next month. Each with at least a few sentences of reasoning.

I invite others to participate in the thread too (also with a bit of reasoning please). I will post at least one hour before start time, and I will use current odds (European format) from Pinnacle Sports as a reference.

I am not a tennis expert, my tactic is to try to find value in the line based on statistics as well as situation. I mainly use tennisexplorer.com for statistics.

Bet size is 100 units, unless otherwise specified.

28/4:
Ramos-Vinolas - Kyrgios
17:30 CET, Oeiras, 1. round, clay

The bet: Kyrgios to win @2,37 WIN +137

I expect Kyrgios to bounce back after last weeks loss to Ymer on Clay. Kyrgios has a big serve and a power game, and plays well on any surface. Now that he's broken in on clay I think he can dispose of Ramos Vinolas.

:shake:
 
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As I know nothing about tennis I will be following this thread closely. Thanks wike :shake:
 
Nice job on the first winner. Would love to have some middle of the night tennis wagers going. I'll be keeping a close eye on this thread. Good luck to you!
 
Melzer - Schwartzman, 12:30 CET, Istanbul, round of 16, clay
The bet: Melzer to win @ 3,22 LOSS -100
I don't see why Schwartzman is made such a clear favourite, Melzer is surely a bit over the hill, but he's still top 100 and can play well on clay, beating Cilic etc. last year, and I don't see anything outstanding about Schwartzman. Unless Meltzer is injured it looks quite 50-50 to me.


Souza - Andujar-Alba, 11:00 CET, Munich, 1. round, clay
The bet: Souza to win @ 3,45 LOSS -100
Andujar lost a final last week, so there's a good chance he won't be mentally focused.
Souza comes of a losing streak and looks to right his ship, he's also 1-0 H2H
 
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Estrella - Tipsarevic
12:30 CET, Munich, round of 16, clay

The bet: Estrella to win @1,86 WIN +86

Victor Estrella has shown consistently good results this year.
Tipsarevic won against Tomic last round, and that's a good step for him back from a long pause, but Tomic isn't very scary on clay overall.
I think Estrella will battle tough here and win on consistency despite Tipsarevic being the far bigger name.:shake:
 
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Zhang - Kovinic
13:15 CET, Prague WTA, round of 16, clay

The bet: Zhang to win @ 2,25 LOSS -100

While inconsistent, Zhang is the better player. She beat Kovinic 6-2 6-1 last year, although on hard surface.

:shake:
 
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Bad day, only Estrella came through.
1 - 3 and -214 units for today.

Total record 2 WIN - 3 LOSS = -77 units
 
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Stakhovsky - Rosol

11:00 CET, Munich, round of 16, clay LOSS-100

The bet: Stakhovsky @ 2,54

Lukas Rosol hasn't shown strong or consistent results this year, and Stakhovsky is 5-1 H2H, although admittedly none of these matches were on clay, and some of them very long ago. Anyway I take the stab.
 
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Gasquet - Almagro

Today, 20:30 CET, Estoril, quarterfinal, clay

The bet: Gasquet@2,37 WIN +137

I will be watching this match, should be interesting. Gasquet can win, especially if he manages to break Almagro's rhyth and frustrate him. Gasquet is ranked world No. 28 and Almagro is ranked 174, but Gasquet has had a back injury, this is why the odds are in Almagro's favour. But I think Gasquet has had ample time to recover.

Total record 3 WIN - 4 LOSS = -40 units
 
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Kyrgios - Carreno-Busta

Today, 15:50 CET, Estoril, semifinal, clay

The bet: Kyrgios @1,48 WIN+48

Not much to say, Kyrgios looks on a roll and C-B doesn't look too scary.
 
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Makarova - Kuznetsova

Today, 14:30 CET, Madrid WTA, 1. round, clay

The bet: Kuznetsova @2,20 WIN + 120

Makarova isn't strong on clay, Kuznetsova has a better clay record, and she's also 4-1 H2H.
 
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Monaco - Almagro

Today, 15:15 CET, Madrid - Masters, 1. round, clay

The bet: Monaco@2,30 WIN +130

Just don't see any specific reason for Almagro being a clear favourite.
 
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Bolelli - Anderson

Today, 17:00 CET, Madrid - Masters, 1. round, clay LOSS -100

The bet: Anderson@1,88

Even if clay is not Anderson's best surface, he seems to win when not playing top players. His results are generally better than Bolelli's, who really struggles to win against top 20 players.
 
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Kuznetsova - Muguruza Blanco

Today, 11:00 CET, Madrid WTA, 2. round, clay

The bet: Kuznetsova @ 2,57 WIN +157

Kuznetsova played well in 1st round, I will keep riding her. Muguruza played great in 1st round too, but she's been alternating wins and losses for a while, and Kuznetsova is a solid clay court player, when she hits the day.
 
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No real reasoning for the two tips above, I just think statistics point to even matches, or even point to the underdog.
 
Gulbis - Goffin

Today, 19:30 CET, Madrid - Masters, 1. round, clay

The bet: Goffin @1,42 WIN +42

These players are equally ranked around 20, but Gulbis has shown dismal form the entire 2015 with a 1-9 record. The odds are low, but I still take Goffin.
 
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I knew Kokkinakis was down after the 3-3 game on Querry serve in the 3rd. Kokkinakis had forced deuce and saved a couple game points. Then got a break chance and blew the shot. Then of course gets broken the game after. Being young, he still needs to gain the mental aspect and not let that happen.

Love Goffin with you. Gulbis has been complete doodoo this year

Good Luck
 
GatorsLeafsBills said:
I knew Kokkinakis was down after the 3-3 game on Querry serve in the 3rd. Kokkinakis had forced deuce and saved a couple game points. Then got a break chance and blew the shot. Then of course gets broken the game after. Being young, he still needs to gain the mental aspect and not let that happen.

Love Goffin with you. Gulbis has been complete doodoo this year

Good Luck
Click to expand...

Thanks Gator, it's great if you'll throw in some ideas in the tread :shake:
 
My biggest problem is I HATE falling asleep not knowing how my bets did. Cuz any second I wake up I start looking right away. I'll dream about the bets and everything. Drives me mad.
 
There's no harm in dreaming. Enjoy whatever dreams you have, they can even make you wiser. As long as you sleep it's great.
 
Didn't get a chance to look tonight. Monaco is worth a bet I think tomorrow. Raonic coming off foot injury and Monaco playing well.
 
Monaco sounds reasonable. I didn't find much. Maybe Lepchenko, but the odds aren't very juicy.
 
Dimitrov - Young
Today, 13:00 CET, Madrid - Masters, 1. round, clay

The bet: Young@5.55 for 50 units LOSS - 50

Dimitrov is clearly the stronger player, but is he really such a banker? Donald Young has beaten him 2 times out of their 5 matches.
 
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Monfils - Troicki

Today, 13:00, Madrid - Masters, 1. round, clay

The bet: Troicki @ 4,05 for 50 units LOSS - 50

I try my luck with another "value bet". Troicki is a solid clay courter, Monfils leads 3-0 H2H, but they did not play on clay before.
 
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Record:
Total record 8 WIN - 9 LOSS = +57 units

Tsonga - Sock

Today, 14:30 CET, Madrid - Masters, 2. round, clay

The bet: Sock @ 2.32 LOSS -100

Tsonga hasn't shone much lately. Sock has had a very good clay season, and so far stands undefeated this year.
------------
Wozniacki - Radwanska WIN +51

Today, 15:00 CET , Madrid WTA, round of 16, clay

The bet: Wozniacki @ 1,51

Miss Sunshine has looked focused and in form lately, and has successfully welcomed clay court legend Sanchez-Vicario as trainer. She's won the last two against Aggie, and also their only encounter on clay back in time. It's not gift odds, and Aggie is a gifted player with a lot of finesse, but I think Wozzy will out work her today.
 
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Federer - Kyrgios

Today, 17:15 CET, Madrid - Masters, 2. round, clay

The bet:
Kyrgios +4.5 games @1,9 WIN +90
Kyrgios @ 4,65 50 units WIN +182,5

Kyrgios is a big server, and has come to play with good form. Fed hasn't looked impressive lately, even though he won the Istanbul clay tournament, he lost sets to relative nobodies Schwarzman and Gimeno-Traver, and battled hard against Cuevas.
 
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Safarova - Vinci

Today, 16:45 CET, Madrid WTA, round of 16, clay

The bet: Vinci +4.5 games @ 2,12 LOSS -100

Vinci is not a spring chicken anymore, but she's getting quite high a handicap considering that she's statistically just as good a clay player as Safrankova. I won't venture into a ML bet, there's something weird about these odds, and the advantage with a game handicap play is that it's cancelled if one of the players retires, no matter which set.
 
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Time To Get Serious

No longer a teenager, Nick Kyrgios says it's time to get serious.


Tiebreak first set. Go Nick, you oversized brat :-)

Edit: Nicky boy lost the TB 2-7, no worries it's the second set where Fed is at his weakest :-)
Edit2: Nicky got broken but at least he won his next service game, it's 1-2. Hang on kid, bronzer and diamond earrings look great on you!:-)
Edit3: Nicky breaks back and holds his own, 3-2 in second set. Gangsta style.
Edit4: Nicky holds again 4-3. Neon colors look good on him too.
Edit5: Nicky misses a break point in Fed's serve and loses the game, can he hold his own serve?
Edit6: Nicky holds serve 5-4, I also love his Bert and Ernie hairstyle.
Edit7: Nicky 6-5. Who closes out the set???
Edit8: Another TB...
Edit9: Nicky wins TB, 1-1 in sets. Fed is shaken and stirred.
Edit10: Nicky holds serve 1-1 in third set. Fed looks worse than Ramos-Vinolas.
Edit11: 2-2 in third set. We won the +4,5 games handicap bet. Go for the gold Nicky!!!
Edit12: 4-4 in third set. Are we heading for a third tiebreak?
Edit13: 5-5. Nicky looks focused and confident.
Edit14: Six games all final set and tie break 1-0 Kyrgios
Edit15: Nicky acting like a brat everytime he loses a point 4-3
Edit16: NICKY WINS 14-12 IN THE TIEBREAK __WINNER__
 
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I'm backing Wozzy again, she's won the last two against Sharapova, although it wasn't clay. Sharapova hasn't looked convincing to me lately.

I'm staying off Kvitova, I don't trust her on clay.
 
Any thoughts on Serena? Massive juice, I know, but feel she got more focused after Vika escape. Although she's CSNs worst nightmare. Serena is a terrible matchup for her. Kvitova always makes it harder on herself than it needs to be
 
Canes1 said:
Any thoughts on Serena? Massive juice, I know, but feel she got more focused after Vika escape. Although she's CSNs worst nightmare. Serena is a terrible matchup for her. Kvitova always makes it harder on herself than it needs to be
Click to expand...

First of all, good call on Kvitova yesterday, I hope you played it. I have no opinion on the Serena match today, of course everything points to her winning, but I can't figure out whether the odds are a bargain.
 
Nadal - Dimitrov

Today, 15:30 CET, Madrid - Masters, quarterfinal, clay

The bet: Dimitrov @ 5,09 LOSS -100

Nadal is 5-0 H2H agains Dimitrov, and when they met a year ago on Clay, he won 6-2 6-2. In each of the other four victories Dimitrov managed to win a set though.

Nadal stands 13-3 on clay this season, but is only two weeks removed from losing to Fognini in straight sets on clay.
Dimitrov stands at respectable 8-2, the losses were in straight sets against Cuevas and Monfils. He got two good wins so far in Madrid against Fognini and the Stanimal.

I make out Dimitrov's winning chances about 25% for this match, corresponding to 1/3 probability of winning a random set. That means that the odds offered seem like good value to me.
 
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