Tennis 2018

Us open plays. Let’s get this puppy started!

ATP

Ferrer +10.5 vs Rafa. Looking for Rafa to get out the gate a bit slow and not look to embarrass Ferrer, as the two are good friends and he is winding down his career. I think we could see at least one tight set here in a straight set win but not a blowout.

Muller -160 vs Sonego. On the hard courts Giles will be tough to break, especially in the heat and the faster courts. Like Sonego’s game, but I’ll take the big server with much more 5 set experience, even if his form isn’t the best of his career.

Pella -125 over Ruud. Guido has some quality scalps on hc and is scrappy. Should be tight but I think he gets thru here.

Fritz even vs M. Zverev. Big serve and forehand along with the home crowd will get Taylor the win here. Zverev has a funky game, and his serve and volley might cause some problems but I think Fritz has the better chance to get on Zverev’s serve. I’ll bite

Duckworth +8 vs Murray. Yet to see Andy put forth a complete effort since coming off the injuries, and those were in best of 3. Now he’s playing his first best of 5 in a while. Expect to see some tough patches and an uneven performance from him and Duckworth should cover.

Considering plays on Sock, Berretini, Robredo hc or the over

Wta no writeups but on the following

Pavlyuchenkova -190 over Peterson

Safarova -130 over Martic

Looking hard at the over in Venus/Kuz doubt either wins this easy. Possible Jen Brady play and betting against Vania King.
 
Good write ups! I played sock big today. Yes He has been horrible past 10-12 matches. I am playing more against Andreozzi who played out of his mind last week. He is not a hard court guy. Sock on home surface to win and win big. Also think he wins a few matches this open.
 
Muller plans to retire at end of season so last slam = max effort one would think
 
thedegenerate said:
Played querrey -5 small and rubluv -180 and -3
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Querrey is usually good at the open and I prob should back him but I just can’t. Seppi plays him well and Sam was brutal in the lead up. Rublev and Chardy never know what you get with either but if I had to pick I’d be on your side. GL.

I like the hc on robredo. He’s a grinder and used to long marches. Usually plays well in ny. Tsitsipas is still green in the grand slams and best of 5. He’s had a good lead up to the open but all best of 3 not 5

Also think shapovalov/Felix goes over. Don’t trust either to win in 3.
 
Felix has been fun to watch. Major upside but tough match up vs top Canadian.

I will take a look at Robredo right now.

Sam had a tough loss in Washington. Should have took first set 6-0 but ended 6-3 and was never right after that
 
thedegenerate said:
Felix has been fun to watch. Major upside but tough match up vs top Canadian.

I will take a look at Robredo right now.

Sam had a tough loss in Washington. Should have took first set 6-0 but ended 6-3 and was never right after that
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Agreed on Sam. Tricky 1st round for him without any hc momentum but he should get thru.

Felix def has a hard match with Shapovalov I just think it’s a 4 or even 5 setter. Dennis usually has mental lapses in his matches so don’t see it being easy.

Robredo I just think can keep the scoreline close. Hoping he can get into extended rallies early in the match and test Tsitsipas gas tank in a best of 5
 
thedegenerate said:
Tommy hasn’t played much is my concern. Tsip has lots of confidence. He has played very well.
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Yes he’s been playing well, but the majority in best of 3 even tho they’ve been higher ATP events. Still lacks GS experience. Hoping that plays a role.

Finally some breaks going my way. Fritz trying to force a 5th set after being down 2-0, and Venus chokes away the 2nd set after being up a double break and we are now in the decider, over hits!
 
nice wins this afternoon on pella, fritz, duckworth hc, robredo hc, and the Venus over. Tough break on Ferrer hc with him retiring as he was on his way to a cover, and with FAA retiring agsinst Shapovalov in the 3rd, had a good shot at that over.

Tuesday plays up in a bit. Just gonna post what I like, no write ups, if you want to know about a specific play or match ask and I’ll try to give my thoughts.
 
Tuesday.

Atp

Hurkacz -165 over Travaglia

Benneteau +140 over Cecchinato (don’t Love it given Benne being just about done but have to at the price).

McDonald +4 vs Haase

Troicki +6.5 vs Sandgren

Rubin -125 over Kukushkin

Like Kolhscreiber as parlay material and debating Tiafoe.

Wta

Flipkens +3.5 and a bit on +140 ml as Coco has been abysmal

Siegemund +5.5 over Osaka

Tan +7.5 over Bouchard

Stosur +6 over the woz

Sabalenka and Bertens parlayed w Koly in men’s.
 
I have two big longshots today with Berankis +650 vs Chung and Wickmayer +540 vs Kvitova. Kvitova hates playing in New York so maybe she will wilt in the heat. Most likely neither of these pay off but I figure its worth a shot.
 
brewers888 said:
I have two big longshots today with Berankis +650 vs Chung and Wickmayer +540 vs Kvitova. Kvitova hates playing in New York so maybe she will wilt in the heat. Most likely neither of these pay off but I figure its worth a shot.
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Berankis got off to a good start but appears to be wilting. If Wickmayer can force long rallies it’s possible. Heat is brutal here. Tomorrow will be worse.
 
TENNIS: 46-35 (-4.03)
August: 23-17 (-3.7)
Yest: 3-4 (-2.11)

Cilic 1.4 (in game: 1st set)

Carreno-Busta O3.5 sets 3.0 (in game: 1st set)

Parlay:
Schwartzman/Kerber 1.42 (US Open)
 
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Big daddy naught said:
Berankis got off to a good start but appears to be wilting. If Wickmayer can force long rallies it’s possible. Heat is brutal here. Tomorrow will be worse.
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I liked these darts as well... Took Wickmayer +6.5 on games and lost by the hook. Hopefully, Berankis doesn't get too muddy. that 0-6 loss in the third set was huge. Hope to pull out with this final set. Nonetheless, nice finds bro
 
Wins on Tuesday:

Hurkacz -165

Benneteau +140

Flipkens +3.5 and ML

Cirstea -118

Sabalenka/Bertens/Kolhscreiber parlay.

Plays for wed

Going to tread lightly early as the heat is supposed to be worst of the week and already seen a bunch of retirements.

Thiem -165. Johnson is playing well on hc and has the crowd but Thiem has better fitness and more game.

Fritz -170 vs Kubler

Seppi +5 vs Shapovalov

Simon +5.5 vs Raonic

Humbert/Wawrinka over 31.5

Safarova +4 vs Barty

Sakkari/Azarenka/Sock parlay.
 
TENNIS: 47-36 (-4.61)
August: 24-18 (-4.28)
Yest: 1-1 (-0.58)

Tsitsipas S 1.67 (US Open)
Bopanna/Roger-Vasselin 1.44 (US Open Doubles)
 
Stephens S 1.59 (in game: 1st set)
Giorgi C 2.21 (WTA US Open)
Bogdan A +4 2.04
Norrie C 1.79 (ATP US Open)
Imanishi M 2.25 (ITF Nanao)
Luangnam/Wongteanchai 1.4 (ITF Nonthaburi Doubles)

Parlay:
Khachanov/Luangnam 1.5 (US Open/ITF Nonthaburi)
Shimizu A/Peterson R 1.75 (ITF Nanao/US Open)
Luangnam/Wongteanchai // Mertens/Schuurs 1.92 (ITF Nonthaburi Doubles/US Open Doubles)


-- will double down on Sloane if she turns into + $$ after the first set.
 
Like the Norrie play. Was looking at him. Thought about Giorgi as well kind of like the over.

Sloane looks lethargic. She needs a good start to 2nd set or she might lose quickly. She can’t buy a 1st serve today.
 
FYI Thursday is supposed to be another hot sticky day before cooling off at night. Could be good to fade players who had long matches on Tuesday and have to play during the heat on Thursday.
 
Anyone know why the Wozniacki line is so low and dropping? Is there an injury I’m unaware of? A parlay of her, Maria, and one other looks good.
 
TENNIS: 53-40 (-5.01)
August: 30-22 (-4.68)
Yest: 6-4 (-0.4)

King/Srebotnik 1.51 (WTA US Open Doubles)
Giangreco Campiz C 1.62 (ITF W Asuncion)
 
Knew something was up with that Woz line. Was way too low.

Looking fwd to Venus vs Serena and Sloane vs Vika tomorrow.

Mild upset I see in men’s would be Stan over Raonic
 
brewers888 said:
Awful pick. Hope no one besides me bet on Azarenka.
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It’s so hard to go against Sloane in ny. Vika still isn’t back to where she was pre Leo. She shows flashes but lacks consistency.

I think the remaning women favs win tonight (Serena, Barty, Pliskova, and Kanepi). I’d love to see Kenin win but not sure she can.

ATP I like Stan. Lajovic +5, and hoping Verdasco can keep it tight.
 
Was at the match. Azarenka is going to get back to form but after her year of not playing with the divorce she looked a bit skinny. Honestly not a sloan fan at all and I always think she is gonna drop a match due to her attitude. Match was closer than the score played out as well.
 
We had nose bleeders yesterday and spring for the tickets to move down for the Nadal match yesterday. One of the best matches I’ve watched. Not gonna be that close today but was well worth it for Nadal
 
Sorry to be gauming up your thread with all this Prime. Hasn’t been a full Tennis thread for a couple years since we had that group running betting it daily. Next season I’ll start a full tennis thread with individual tournament threads.

Thoughts for tomorrow-

Nadal should cruise pretty easily as well as Serena.

Coric may be able to give Del Po some fits if he can return well but likely a del po victory

Sloan should also be able to win in straight but I can’t trust her to keep it together.

Maybe it’s just Me but I like Thiem against Anderson.

Isner V Raonic will be the best match of the day. Milos looked really good against Wawa. These guys are going to be banging big serves all day and both are aggressive to the net and have good touch up there, should be an exciting match. Love both players no pick for me but lean Milos.

Some decent doubles matches too. Harrison brothers have been playing well, Herbert/mahut v kubot/melo should be an exciting match.

We went to the Jack Sock/Mike Bryan match today. Jack Sock is one of the most entertaining players to watch in doubles. He was playing real big and then had the touch of an angel at the net it was almost unbelievable.

I’ve had to fight the urge to want to bet the matches while here but I’ve enjoyed just being at the matches with no skin on it. Tomorrow is my last day so I’ll consider some stuff next week.
 
ksimpsc said:
Sorry to be gauming up your thread with all this Prime. Hasn’t been a full Tennis thread for a couple years since we had that group running betting it daily. Next season I’ll start a full tennis thread with individual tournament threads.

Thoughts for tomorrow-

Nadal should cruise pretty easily as well as Serena.

Coric may be able to give Del Po some fits if he can return well but likely a del po victory

Sloan should also be able to win in straight but I can’t trust her to keep it together.

Maybe it’s just Me but I like Thiem against Anderson.

Isner V Raonic will be the best match of the day. Milos looked really good against Wawa. These guys are going to be banging big serves all day and both are aggressive to the net and have good touch up there, should be an exciting match. Love both players no pick for me but lean Milos.

Some decent doubles matches too. Harrison brothers have been playing well, Herbert/mahut v kubot/melo should be an exciting match.

We went to the Jack Sock/Mike Bryan match today. Jack Sock is one of the most entertaining players to watch in doubles. He was playing real big and then had the touch of an angel at the net it was almost unbelievable.

I’ve had to fight the urge to want to bet the matches while here but I’ve enjoyed just being at the matches with no skin on it. Tomorrow is my last day so I’ll consider some stuff next week.
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It’s not my thread, it’s MrPrimeTime’s, not too many seem to bet tennis in here so I just started posting in his thread too.

As for tomorrow, Rafa on ml is too high but id bet him -1.5 sets or 3-0. Doubt he drops a set to this guy.

I like coric agsinst delpo with the + games.
Delpo looked tired agsinst Verdasco and Coric should give him more trouble.

Isner/Raonic will be tight but I trust Isner in TBs more than I do Milos. Stan gifted Milos that 1st set and was pretty much down and out after that. Big john advances at home.

No clue on Thiem/KA. That’s got 5 setter all over it.

As for women I think Serena and Sloane both advance and do like Barty and Svitolina but not as much as the Americans.

I dabble in doubles here and there, albot/jaziri beat me today. I’d prob bite on the Harrison bros, they always screw me in singles tho lol.
 
Thiem played phenomenal, always nice to see a lean be the right side

I’m feeling pretty dialed in to start betting next week. Always helps when you actually watch a lot of matches instead of just betting on data. Accurate I njury information can sometimes be tough to come by but watching the matches you get a feel for that and current mental state of players pretty quickly.
 
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