Tennessee Volunteers
- Thread starter M.W.
- Start date
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dudleysdad
Guest
That was my guess also
Carolina Guy
Pretty much a regular
I'm telling you, this UT squad will be the most overrated and touted school in all of college football by season's end.
And Butch cannot coach. Just my opinion. He is a great recruiter though.
to their defense though they did play Okla, Fla & Bama til the end. A play here or there and they win those 3.
ArKansas was the only team that man handled them Last year
But then they barely beat SC @ home who lost to the Citadel.
to their defense though they did play Okla, Fla & Bama til the end. A play here or there and they win those 3.
ArKansas was the only team that man handled them Last year
But then they barely beat SC @ home who lost to the Citadel.
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UTSUX
Old-timer
These Fucker around here talking NC every day.:rofl:
Carolina Guy
Pretty much a regular
What do you expect from a folk who get their corn from a jar?!
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Kyle, the Gold Sheet and Sagarin are probably the leading subjective and objective power ratings, respectively. The Gold Sheet generally reflects what "Vegas" thinks, and apparently the thought was that BGSU was 6 points better than NW at the end of the season. Bowl games really don't tell you much anyway.
And to be fair to Bowling Green and The Gold Sheet, if you consider bowl game results to be reliable data, I would point out that BGSU and Northwestern had three common opponents (UT, Purdue, and Ball St), and BG did better against all of them than NW did. They both beat Purdue by 7, but BGSU did it on the road. NW beat Ball St by 5 at home, while BG beat BSU 48-10 on the road. UT beat NW 45-6 and BGSU 59-30, with BG going for 557 yards against the Vols. And those 30 points didn't come in garbage time -- they scored 10 each in the 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q, with UT scoring the game's final 17 points in the last 15:03.
And to be fair to Bowling Green and The Gold Sheet, if you consider bowl game results to be reliable data, I would point out that BGSU and Northwestern had three common opponents (UT, Purdue, and Ball St), and BG did better against all of them than NW did. They both beat Purdue by 7, but BGSU did it on the road. NW beat Ball St by 5 at home, while BG beat BSU 48-10 on the road. UT beat NW 45-6 and BGSU 59-30, with BG going for 557 yards against the Vols. And those 30 points didn't come in garbage time -- they scored 10 each in the 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q, with UT scoring the game's final 17 points in the last 15:03.
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lindetrain
Pretty much a regular
Surprised you and cub both feel this way, I'd have had BGSU laying about 6 to NW going into the bowl as well.
lindetrain
Pretty much a regular
NW was power rated higher than BGSU when BGSU played Tennessee and Purdue early on, but I think the Ball State number at the end of the year is probably a bit more telling. BGSU closed -23 on the road in that one as opposed to the -17.5 NW was laying at home.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ball st was 2-1 before facing nwestern. Before facing BGSU they had lost 7 of their last 8 and been outscored 102-38 the two weeks prior.
lindetrain
Pretty much a regular
So I guess none of the three common opponents really tell us much.
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
vk on point
lindetrain
Pretty much a regular
Honestly stunned that so many I respect disagree here. Feel like it's not even really close.
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
Common opponents is a useful guide when you want to approximate. However, in team sports, skills based platforms have proven to be far more accurate then results based ones. I use Elo for tennis, but would never consider it for football/soccer/basketball/etc
You need to take into account a number of factors when comparing common opponents - injuries, motivation, style, weather, etc. Yon won't be able to quantify that in a results based system
also, we are assuming that the BGSU v Ball St line or Purdue or whoever is an efficient line. It's not
You need to take into account a number of factors when comparing common opponents - injuries, motivation, style, weather, etc. Yon won't be able to quantify that in a results based system
also, we are assuming that the BGSU v Ball St line or Purdue or whoever is an efficient line. It's not
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Thanks for pointing that out. I had forgotten.
That reminds me, for those who are interested in playing Kent St at Penn State, and apparently there aren't many of us, the 52-3 loss at Illinois in week one came after lightning delayed the start, and eventually (after 11 pm), resulted in the cancellation of the game scheduled for Friday night. The Kent staff had to scramble to find hotel rooms, and the team eventually wound up at five different hotels an hour-plus from Champaign with the game scheduled for 1 pm the next day. There's no telling how late they got in. The Illini scored five 1H TDs on drives covering a total of about 145 yards.
Two weeks later, when they had a normal situation, they held Minnesota to 10 points.
That reminds me, for those who are interested in playing Kent St at Penn State, and apparently there aren't many of us, the 52-3 loss at Illinois in week one came after lightning delayed the start, and eventually (after 11 pm), resulted in the cancellation of the game scheduled for Friday night. The Kent staff had to scramble to find hotel rooms, and the team eventually wound up at five different hotels an hour-plus from Champaign with the game scheduled for 1 pm the next day. There's no telling how late they got in. The Illini scored five 1H TDs on drives covering a total of about 145 yards.
Two weeks later, when they had a normal situation, they held Minnesota to 10 points.
Carolina Guy
Pretty much a regular
How many points will App being catching at Tenn? I'll be eyeballing the ML whatever it is.
I think Tenn is overrated and I would agree with you if it was a midseason or sandwich game. However I think they steamroll App pretty easily. I don't love the App QB and App is basically Tennessee with inferior athletes. Unless Butch proves to be a bigger idiot than I think he is, and I think he's a pretty big one, they will give App full attention and effort for the opener as it is 10 days before the Battle in Bristol.
Carolina Guy
Pretty much a regular
VPI (neutral)
Florida
@ TT
@ Georgia
Alabama
Good luck in that five or six week stretch. We can boast or crow after that.
Florida
@ TT
@ Georgia
Alabama
Good luck in that five or six week stretch. We can boast or crow after that.
Yeah that's pretty brutal. Butch is either gonna be the toast of the town or find himself on the hot seat. I feel like 3-2 during that stretch would be solid but I think most Vol fans expect 4-1 or 5-0
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
For the record the actual schedule is
ASU
VPI (neutral)
Ohio
Florida
@ Georgia
@ TAMU
Alabama
Open Date
Five Easy Wins
4-1 is not all that unlikely for those five games (VPI, UF, UGA, TAMU, Bama), but 3-2 and 2-3 are both more likely than 4-1. And that's based on a presumption that the Vols beat the Hokies. In 2012, I told y'all that VPI was the most overrated team in the country, and they proceeded to go 3-9 ATS in the regular season before beating Rutgers in overtime as a 2-point favorite in the bowl game. And they've been wallowing in mediocrity since then. I haven't looked at the Hokies yet this year -- maybe there's a reason to think they have a chance in Bristol -- but for now I'm counting that as a W for the Vols. However, Georgia (if Chubb is healthy) is clearly better than UT, and they're at home, and UT will not have an open date before Alabama this year, and UT should lose both those games. If UF finds a QB, that could be a third loss, and the TAMU sandwich between UF/UGA and Alabama is dangerous as well.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I disagree, because there's a actually a lot of value betting the other side of those props. You can bet -475 that UT doesn't win the SEC or that UT doesn't make the 4-team playoff. Or +105 that UT doesn't win the East. Why in the world would they be perceived to be better than Georgia?
And look at the GOY lines at 5Dimes:
UT -10 vs. UF. That's a bad line. Should be 5 or 6.
And UT-2 at UGA. That's a ludicrous line. UGA should be laying 7 in that one.
And UT +1.5 vs. Bama? Bama should be -10 or more.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Im not sure. For some reason Tenn is acting like the VT game is the biggest game in history. I do like the App State QB though and they have a shitload of capable backs. I think they were one of the best G5 teams last year and return everybody but WRs pretty much. (and Meadors is good, if healthy....he almost went to ODU
I took App State +21. Mainly bc I think people are ahead of the game on the Tenn greatness, but also because App State is a really solid team and they should have all the motivation.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Maybe it's because it's going to have the biggest crowd in history. Anyway, what is the basis for your statement that "Tenn is acting like the VT game is the biggest game in history"? What are you hearing/reading and from whom? I think you can tell that I like ASU in this one, but I'd like all the info I can get. Thanks.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Don't really have specific links unless I went searching, but Butch has been talking about this game all summer. The administration and fans have been talking about this game for 3 years. Heck, I tried to get tix from some Tennessee buddies and they wanted $300 a pop for them. I think this game is a big deal for both programs.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
How many breaks did that team catch late in the game?
Unless this is like the amazing bologna year Auburn had where a team just luckboxes until they finally get good, this team is fixing to underperform.
App St Dline crushed the Vols oline ... how they gonna fair against bama dl?
Unless this is like the amazing bologna year Auburn had where a team just luckboxes until they finally get good, this team is fixing to underperform.
App St Dline crushed the Vols oline ... how they gonna fair against bama dl?
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
They damn sure better hope that it was just overlooking App State, but Tenn got abused on both the OL and DL all night long. Tenn got a ton of breaks down the stretch. I mean, App State couldn't pass the ball a lick and still hung in the game and almost won.....
VT is not a good team this year, imo. But, that DL may abuse the Tenn OL. And VT typically has a decent secondary, so Tenn may not be able to just throw a prayer up to the huge WR (on a freshman corner).
VT is not a good team this year, imo. But, that DL may abuse the Tenn OL. And VT typically has a decent secondary, so Tenn may not be able to just throw a prayer up to the huge WR (on a freshman corner).
