Super Bowl Props

atolunch

atolunch

Pretty much a regular
Anybody look at anything yet?

Early leans, think I may take a shot with players to score first:

Holmes, Pit
Parker, Pit

MVP

Harrison, Pit


Yes to a Defensive TD

Any thoughts, ideas??

:moose:
 
tails is a lock. lol.

Depending on the line, I think Kurt Warner passing yards needs to be looked at. I seriously doubt E James or Hightower are going to be able to run on this vaunted Pitt defense. And if they get down early, Ariz might have to air it out.
 
LMAO, saw a prop:

What color liquid will be dumped on the winning coach?

Green
Clear
Red
None

You have to love this country!!!
 
anyone know when the player props usually come out? the juice moves so damn fast on them, its crucial to be ready when they come out
 
Pitt currently around 2.5 to 1 to win game. SB MVP all but once came from winning team. Out of 42 games QB selected MVP 22 (52%) - 50% since fan voting introduced.
Casual better here, and only play props during SB for action. With above in mind at what odds would Roethlisberger be a play purely form a statistical point of view.
 
I love me some SB props. Bookmakers spread themselves thin trying to attract as much action as possible. As a result, they release some very exploitable opportunities.
 
I always play the "will either team score 3 unanswered times"; NO is always +200 or more. It's been good the last couple SB's
 
Locked in on some early ones:

Over 9.5 1Q Think both teams come out firing, wanting to score first

Yes to 2pt conv +450

D or Special Team TD, yes +155 (Steeler D is best in league, both teams below average special teams IMO)

QB Sacks, 5 +110 (Love this one, again Steeler D, and Ben is good for at least 2 himself, 3 units on this for me!)

Anquan Boldin 65.5 yds rec, taking the over, too much hype for Fitz here, think AB is healthier than he has been, also see AZ unable to run and trailing late

First TD:

Boldin +1200 see above
Holmes +1000 having superb playoffs
M Moore +3500 taking a shot, great hands, solid runner, great odds.

That's my first batch, post some more later.

BOL!!!
 
Mags said:
I always play the "will either team score 3 unanswered times"; NO is always +200 or more. It's been good the last couple SB's
Click to expand...


i like that one alot actually, seems like a solid play with the way PITT D is... i may be looking into playing quite a few PITT D props this year....


i already played "will there be a safety?" YES +700 for $7
 
I'm looking at Fitzerald Over 90.5 rec yds but I don't like the price(-140)

I'm also looking at Fitzerald to score a TD at -115

Both of these lines are skewed due to Fitzgerald's run in the playoffs but he is a beast and I just don't see Pitt holding him to less than 100 yds and I see him scoring.:cheers:
 
thought about the safety prop but expected a better #. naah

anyone think Zona will defer? I'm going to play Zona to recieve opening kickoff at -170
 
Thinking about :

Team to Score First ? Arizona Or

team to Scores First wins the game ? NO

Super Bowl MVP ? Santonio Holmes +1700

Shortest FG made 25.5 yards ? UNDER -130

1st TD scored in game ? Arrington , Breaston or Hightower ...or Santnio Holmes , Nate Washington
:shake:




 
never seen this one before:

<table class="betpagetableslip" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="whitebig" align="left" bgcolor="#3e3e3e" height="19">
</td><td valign="top" align="right" bgcolor="#3e3e3e" height="19">
icon_pfeildownrnews.gif
</td></tr> </tbody></table> <form method="post" target="slip" name="betselect" action="BetSlip.exe?small;first=true;"></form> <table class="spofslip" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="blackbig"><td colspan="3" align="left"> Super Bowl XLIII: Sunny Florida?
Closing Date: Jan 27, 2009 15:00 GMT -4 </td></tr> <tr class="burgundynews"><td colspan="3" align="left"> What will the temperature be at kickoff? 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I think someone should take a look at BETCRIME'S opinion on a PROP. Its very inviting
 
What would you guys set the o/u on the following:

Times Warner gets sacked
Times Warner turns it over

Jeff Reed made FGs
Neil Rackers made FGs

???
 
Giving some real thought to Harrison for MVP. He's had a few of those monster games in the past, and really has a chip on his shoulder this week. Certainly capable of a 3 sack, FF, fumble recovery type game. Has great odds though, and if Steelers win in a low scoring one, can see a D player getting MVP.
 
atolunch said:
Giving some real thought to Harrison for MVP. He's had a few of those monster games in the past, and really has a chip on his shoulder this week. Certainly capable of a 3 sack, FF, fumble recovery type game. Has great odds though, and if Steelers win in a low scoring one, can see a D player getting MVP.
Click to expand...

i already played Troy (+1000) and Santonio (+1500) small for MVP...

i thought about Harrison, but has a DEF player ever won SuperBowl MVP that wasn't in the secondary? anybody know?
 
A few I like:

Player to score first TD:

Gary Russell 18-1
Tim Hightower 12-1

MVP:

Edgerrin James 15-1


Lebron vs. Roethlisberger (1H points vs completions)

James +3.5


Steelers points vs Pistions 1Q points

Steelers -4.5


Hightower Receiving Yards

Over 9.5
 
Here is one I kind of like.

Will there be a blocked or missed field goal?

YES +120

What do you think on this one?
 
Kurt Warner Over 235 passing yards. The juice is pretty heavy at MB, but as someone else said, you only pay the juice when you lose. I don't think that Arizona will be able to run the ball almost at all. I think there's a good chance that they borderline abandon the run, and go almost entirely with pass plays. 235 yards should be easy money if that's the case.
 
I found 2 more I really like.

Total Sacks OVER 5 -130

Will 3 Cardinals score (Kicker and 2 pt. conv. count) YES +125

Good luck.
 
anyone know where i can find out who defers and who recieves. i want to see if Wiz chose to recieve this year when he won the toss. interested in the AZ recieves kickoff prop
 
I like Pitt -1/2 for the 3rd quarter quite a bit.

Arizona has come out shaky more than a few times this season, and Pitt has been pretty dominant after the half.
 
any one know the status of Hines Ward? , hes on quite a few props, head to head with fitzgerald (-28.5) is interesting if his injury is still hurting im.
 
doogie said:
Where at????
Click to expand...



I'm thinking about the Edges rushing total over 43.5 yards. Low number but everyone knows Pitt can stuff the run and AZ is a pass first team, so I can't see anyone busting a nut to pound the Over given there's big enough elements in play to give major pause for thought. But my take is Pitt won't fear AZ's rush so have no need to stuff the line (their focus is obviously on the receivers they'll be dealing with), while AZ must know they can't abandon the run for various reasons.

He's avg'd 3.94 yds a carry these playoffs, and even in his worst game he avg'd 2.85 yds/carry which, given his lowest amount of carries in any playoff game to date (16), would produce 45+ yards. He'd need only 11-12 carries at his overall avg (3.94) to produce a winner.
He's rushed for 74, 57 & 74 yds, on 16, 20 & 16 carries these playoffs, and in the AZ/PIT match last season, he gained 77 yards on 21 carries (3.7 avg).
 
3rd & Long said:
I like Pitt -1/2 for the 3rd quarter quite a bit.

Arizona has come out shaky more than a few times this season, and Pitt has been pretty dominant after the half.
Click to expand...

PITT has been unbelievable in the 3rd qtr.... they are dominate!!! i like this prop ALOT!!!!
 
Here's a prop I don't understand:

Keeping in mind that props like who will win the coin flip, heads or tails, etc. are all 50/50 chances, Racebook.com has Team To Receive Opening Kickoff - Pgh - +140, Az -180

This doesn't make sense to me. Any team that wins the coin toss in the super bowl will take the kickoff, right? If it was a regular season game, late in the season, I might think that maybe if Pittsburgh won the coin toss that they would concede the kickoff just to show the opposing team early how good their defense is.

But that is something that Noll and maybe Cowher would have done. I can't see Tomllin doing that. So basically Racebook.com is saying that if Pgh wins the coin toss that they won't take the kickoff.

Am I missing something here, cause I'm thinking of dropping $100 on this. It's still a 50/50 shot, but it's paying +140.
 
Oh yeah, I already took Ben's completions over 17.5.

Ben's average for the year is 16 - 17 completions per game. And it went up in the playoffs.

I looked at all of Az games this year and they easy give up more than 17 completions per game whether they win or lose.

Ben wants to make amends for the crap game he played in SB 3 years ago.

So if Steelers open up big lead, could only need a few completions in 2nd half to win. If Steelers are losing or tied, Ben will have to throw the ball.

Anyone feel different?
 
RandyJA said:
Here's a prop I don't understand:

Keeping in mind that props like who will win the coin flip, heads or tails, etc. are all 50/50 chances, Racebook.com has Team To Receive Opening Kickoff - Pgh - +140, Az -180

This doesn't make sense to me. Any team that wins the coin toss in the super bowl will take the kickoff, right? If it was a regular season game, late in the season, I might think that maybe if Pittsburgh won the coin toss that they would concede the kickoff just to show the opposing team early how good their defense is.

But that is something that Noll and maybe Cowher would have done. I can't see Tomllin doing that. So basically Racebook.com is saying that if Pgh wins the coin toss that they won't take the kickoff.

Am I missing something here, cause I'm thinking of dropping $100 on this. It's still a 50/50 shot, but it's paying +140.
Click to expand...

why do you think tomlin would recieve? he knows he can get a stop early and get field position. Wiz always recieves, tomlin always defers. why would the SB be any different?


something to find out would be past SB decisions.
 
RandyJA said:
Oh yeah, I already took Ben's completions over 17.5.

Ben's average for the year is 16 - 17 completions per game. And it went up in the playoffs.

I looked at all of Az games this year and they easy give up more than 17 completions per game whether they win or lose.

Ben wants to make amends for the crap game he played in SB 3 years ago.

So if Steelers open up big lead, could only need a few completions in 2nd half to win. If Steelers are losing or tied, Ben will have to throw the ball.

Anyone feel different?
Click to expand...

i like it. they should dink and dunk quite a bit against this bend but don't break D. although the cards have been attacking a lot more on D lately and its been working. mcnaab coulda had 40 completions against this team
 
But if you do it regular season and it backfires - the opposing team gets a touchdown - then they get momentum, maybe go on to win the game. But you still have another game next week.

If you do it in the SB and it backfires, you've given the underdog the upper hand and the momentum and there is no next week. But even if it works and the defense stuffs them, is the first series really that important especailly against a QB like Warner who can throw the long bomb at any time? I would think it would be more important to try and score first, especially against a team like Az, and force them into an early passing situation and maybe an interception.

Btw, do you know for sure that Tomlin always defers? I really didn't pay much attention to that all season even when I went to the games.
 
I know quite a bit about this prop. Pittsburgh has deferred every time they have won the coin toss. Arizona is the tough one - I've seen one source that indicated they won the toss 7 times this year and deferred 5 times and received twice (vs Cowboys and Giants). Tide High though said above that Arizona always takes the ball (Tide - are you sure on this because if so, the bet is pretty much a slam dunk).

This info is valuable because it sets us VALUE on a ton of other bets ...if I know who is getting the ball first, I'm more likely to put money on them to get the first first down of the game, to score first/punt first (since one of those has to happen unless turnover or missed FG and a chance to win both - I got both right with Ohio State vs Texas when I was positive OSU would start with the ball). First qtr bet from value perspective needs to be on Arizona since Pitt might only get the ball for one possession in the first qtr.

So in summary, what exactly has Arizona done this year when they won the coin toss. Is it 5 defers and 2 receives OR take the ball every time?
 
CHAMPBASI said:
Tide High though said above that Arizona always takes the ball (Tide - are you sure on this because if so, the bet is pretty much a slam dunk).
Click to expand...

i was quoting another poster. Marlo, when he said it though he said he also read it from someone else, so pretty much take it with a grain. where can we find this out though? surely somewhere there is a game log that includes the toss
 
well i just ran through all the info CBS offers... their play by play doesn't neccesarily include the toss and decision, but it did on a couple of occasions. week 1 Wiz deferred to SF. week 8 Wiz deferred to Carolina. both away games.

at least we know i was wrong that they don't recieve all the time
 
the info is out there, i'll get good stats on it as you are correct, this could help a ton with a lot of props, and theres a lot of value in taking the Steelers to recieve if it is in fact 50/50
 
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