Super Bowl Champion

Jacksonville will be eliminated IF
● Lose @ Buffalo
OR
● Score less than 20 points @ Buffalo
OR
● Allow 62 or more points @ Buffalo


Washington will be eliminated IF
● Allow 45 or more points @ Cincinnati


Cincinnati will be eliminated IF
● Lose vs Washington
AND
● Allow more than 57 points vs Washington
 
Last edited:
Dallas will be eliminated IF
● Lose @ NY Giants
OR
● Allow more than 10 points @ NY Giants
OR
● Score less than 23 points @ NY Giants


NY Giants will be eliminated IF
● Lose vs Dallas
OR
● Win by less than 10 points vs Dallas
OR
● Score less than 35 points vs Dallas
OR
● Allow more than 35 points vs Dallas
 
There's too many games this week to compute all requirements for all games this week but I've listed tonight's MNF and TNF elimination possibilities. If anyone wants to know about a certain team i can provide that.

Looking at the 2 time, defending champion Chiefs...Interesting enough, Kansas City won't qualify as a 1ST TIER (High Probability) qualifier IF

● Win by less than 10 points @ LA Chargers
OR
● Score less than 5 points @ LA Chargers
OR
● Allow more than 37 points @ LA Chargers

IF 2 or more of the above occur they'll be officially eliminated.
 
@B.A.R. This one is for you boss.

Detroit is Eliminated IF 2 of the 3 scenarios occur in Week 4.

● Win by less than 10 points vs Seattle
OR
● Score less than than 17 vs Seattle
OR
● Allow more than 46 points vs Seattle

All 3 scenarios above would have to not occur for them to be in the TOP TIER (High Probability).

If 1 of 3 occur they'll be in the 2ND TIER (Low Probability).

In a nutshell any Lions fans needs to hope they clear the 3 hurdles above.
 
Last edited:
Normally the top tiers have about 5-7 teams in each. It's looking like there will be less SB qualifiers this season which I'm totally ok with. The strange season continues.
 
Loves2kickass said:
@B.A.R. This one is for you boss.

Detroit is Eliminated IF 2 of the 3 scenarios occur in Week 4.

● Win by less than 10 points vs Seattle
OR
● Score less than than 17 vs Seattle
OR
● Allow more than 46 points vs Seattle

All 3 scenarios above would have to not occur for them to be in the TOP TIER (High Probability).

If 1 of 3 occur they'll be in the 2ND TIER (Low Probability).

In a nutshell any Lions fans needs to hope they clear the 3 hurdles above.
Click to expand...
Okay, so the Lions win 16-7 on MNF and at 3-1 are eliminated from contention.

Checks out.
 
Loves2kickass said:
To get to the Bowl, no.. To win it all, yes.
Click to expand...

Seems like if you can get there you certainly have some kinda chance to win?? I know this all based off the formula just very odd to me a team gets there and can’t win it. Back in the old days sure, these days where pretty much any game can go either way and the SB has mostly been down to wire just a hard line for me to draw there.
 
2daBank said:
Seems like if you can get there you certainly have some kinda chance to win?? I know this all based off the formula just very odd to me a team gets there and can’t win it. Back in the old days sure, these days where pretty much any game can go either way and the SB has mostly been down to wire just a hard line for me to draw there.
Click to expand...
Totally understand your rational. I'll post the numbers, results and probabilities from previous Bowls this afternoon.
 
Bold team SB winner

Last 10 years 2015-2024
● 1st Tier won SB 8 times
● 2nd Tier won SB 2 times
● Eliminated won SB 0 times, 1 appearance.

2024
KC (1st Tier)
SF (1st Tier)

2023
KC (1st Tier)
PHI (1st Tier)

2022
LAR (1st Tier)
CIN (2nd Tier)

2021
TB (1st Tier)
KC (1st Tier)

2020
KC (1st Tier)
SF (2nd Tier)

2019
NE (1st Tier)
LAR (1st Tier)

2018
NE (2nd Tier)
PHI (2nd Tier)

2017
NE (2nd Tier)
ATL (3rd Tier/Eliminated)

2016
DEN (1st Tier)
CAR (1st Tier)

2015
NE (1st Tier)
SEA (1st Tier)

I'll provide more previous years later today.
 
Last edited:
Bold team SB winner

2004-2014
● 1st Tier won SB 8 times
● 2nd Tier won SB 1 time
● 3rd Tier/Eliminated won SB 2 times, 3 appearances.

2014
SEA (1st Tier)
DEN (1st Tier)

2013
BAL (1st Tier)
SF (1st Tier)

2012
NYG (1st Tier)
NE (1st Tier)

2011
GB (1st Tier)
PIT (3rd Tier/Eliminated)

2010
NO (1st Tier)
IND (1st Tier)

2009
PIT (2nd Tier)
AZ (2nd Tier)

2008
NYG (3rd Tier/Eliminated)
NE (1st Tier)

2007
IND (1st Tier)
CHI (1st Tier)

2006
PIT (1st Tier)
SEA (2nd Tier)

2005
NE (1st Tier)
PHI (1st Tier)

2004
NE (3rd Tier/Eliminated)
CAR (2nd Tier)
 
Last edited:
In a nutshell, since the 2003-2004 season (21 seasons)

1st Tier won SB 16/21; 76%
2nd Tier won SB 3/21; 14%
3rd Tier won SB 2/21; 10%
4th Tier won SB 0/21; 0%
5th Tier won SB 0/21; 0%
6th Tier won SB 0/21; 0%

To answer previous comment @2daBank regarding the Lions, 3rd Tier not impossible to win SB but very unlikely if they're in the 3rd Tier/Eliminated or worse. I hope that helps.
 
Another note, teams in 3rd Tier/Eliminated position haven't won the Bowl since 2008. That was 1 of their 2 SB wins the last 21 years. Also in that 2007-2008 season, although the NYG were in the 3rd Tier/Eliminated spot they were 1 point allowed on Defense away from 2nd Tier status.

1st Tier teams who made the SB have won 16 of 17 Super Bowls with the only loss the above stated 2007-2008 NYG team.

A 2nd Tier team has played a 1st Tier 3 times in the SB all came up short in all 3.

There's several variances you can draw from the past results.
 
B.A.R. said:
Okay, so the Lions win 16-7 on MNF and at 3-1 are eliminated from contention.

Checks out.
Click to expand...
Just so you know I only mentioned the Lions cause I know that's your home team and I thought you may want to see it.

Also, regarding Detroit, based on the formula, they need a convincing win (DD win), which they haven't had the first 3 games and also more production/scoring on offense.
 
Loves2kickass said:
Just so you know I only mentioned the Lions cause I know that's your home team and I thought you may want to see it.

Also, regarding Detroit, based on the formula, they need a convincing win (DD win), which they haven't had the first 3 games and also more production/scoring on offense.
Click to expand...
The AFC team that has the same issue is the Steelers.
 
Another team that may draw some interest. Baltimore Ravens will be 1st Tier IF

● Closing line favorite vs Buffalo
AND
● Win vs Buffalo
AND
● Score at least 9 points vs Buffalo
AND
● Allow less than 22 points vs Buffalo
AND
● Win by 10 or more points vs Buffalo
 
Loves2kickass said:
Dallas will be eliminated IF
● Lose @ NY Giants
OR
● Allow more than 10 points @ NY Giants
OR
● Score less than 23 points @ NY Giants


NY Giants will be eliminated IF
● Lose vs Dallas
OR
● Win by less than 10 points vs Dallas
OR
● Score less than 35 points vs Dallas
OR
● Allow more than 35 points vs Dallas
Click to expand...
Now that Dallas has allowed more than 10 points tonight they can do no better than a 3rd Tier team. They're on the borderline of being irrelevant for a SB even with a win tonight.

The NYG are looking more and more like a 4-5 Tier team and should be looking to tank for a high draft pick next season.
 
FINAL UPDATE MONDAY, 09/30

1ST TIER (SB Champ 16/21, 76%, L 21 yrs)

2ND TIER (SB Champ 3/21, 14%, L 21 yrs)

3RD TIER (SB Champ 2/21, 10%, L 21 yrs)
Dallas Cowboys ( +2200 Circa)

4TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)

5TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
New York Giants (+60000 Circa)

6TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
 
Last edited:
FINAL UPDATE MONDAY, 09/30

Week 4 Circa SB odds listed. Also listed is 20 Pt System and I'll update as team numbers change weekly. If a team reaches at least 20 pts they're IN the Bowl. Tier info is listed in previous comments.


1ST TIER (SB Champ 16/21, 76%, L 21 yrs)

2ND TIER (SB Champ 3/21, 14%, L 21 yrs)

3RD TIER (SB Champ 2/21, 10%, L 21 yrs)
Dallas Cowboys (Wk 4 +2200 Circa) 20 Pt System -3/20

4TH TIER (ISB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)

5TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
New York Giants (Wk 4 +60000 Circa) 20 Pt System 0/20

6TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
 
Below is the list of Tiers, including the early games today. FINAL UPDATE MONDAY, 09/30. Highly unusual there's no 1ST TIER teams at this point. The 2ND TIER is loaded a little more than usual.

Also listed is 20 Pt System and I'll update those as team numbers change weekly. If a team reaches at least 20 pts they're IN the Bowl.


1ST TIER (SB Champ 16/21, 76%, L 21 yrs)

2ND TIER (SB Champ 3/21, 14%, L 21 yrs)
Pittsburgh Steelers (20 Pt System +9/20)
Minnesota Vikings (20 Pt System +6/20)
New Orleans Saints (20 Pt System +3/20)
Philadelphia Eagles (20 Pt System 0/20)
Tampa Bay (20 Pt System 0/20)
New York Jets (20 Pt System -2/20)
Green Bay Packers (20 Pt System -3/20)

3RD TIER (SB Champ 2/21, 10%, L 21 yrs)
Denver Broncos (20 Pt System 4/20)
Houston Texans (20 Pt System 0/20)
Cincinnati Bengals (20 Pt System 0/20)
Indianapolis Colts (20 Pt System 0/20)
Dallas Cowboys (20 Pt System -3/20)

4TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Atlanta Falcons (20 Pt System 0/20)
Chicago Bears (20 Pt System 0/20)

5TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
New York Giants ( 20 Pt System 0/20)
Carolina Panthers (20 Pt System -6/20)

6TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Los Angeles Rams (20 Pt System -3/20)

7TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Jacksonville Jaguars (20 Pt System -3/20)
 
@B.A.R. things appear to be shaping up well for the Lions IF they can qualify in 1ST TIER tomorrow night. That category is currently empty of any teams. They have a realistic shot at achieving that vs Seattle.
 
Below is the list of Tiers, updated through the 1PM games. FINAL UPDATE MONDAY, 09/30.

Also listed is 20 Pt System and I'll update those as team numbers change weekly. If a team reaches at least 20 pts they're IN the Bowl.


1ST TIER (SB Champ 16/21, 76%, L 21 yrs)
San Francisco 49ers (20 Pt System 3/20)

2ND TIER (SB Champ 3/21, 14%, L 21 yrs)
Pittsburgh Steelers (20 Pt System 9/20)
Minnesota Vikings (20 Pt System 6/20)
Kansas City (20 Pt System 3/20)
New Orleans Saints (20 Pt System 3/20)
Philadelphia Eagles (20 Pt System 0/20)
Tampa Bay (20 Pt System 0/20)
New York Jets (20 Pt System -2/20)
Green Bay Packers (20 Pt System -3/20)

3RD TIER (SB Champ 2/21, 10%, L 21 yrs)
Los Angeles Chargers (20 Pt System 6/20)
Denver Broncos (20 Pt System 4/20)
Houston Texans (20 Pt System 0/20)
Cincinnati Bengals (20 Pt System 0/20)
Indianapolis Colts (20 Pt System 0/20)
Washington Commanders (20 Pt System -3/20)
Dallas Cowboys (20 Pt System -3/20)

4TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Atlanta Falcons (20 Pt System 0/20)
Chicago Bears (20 Pt System 0/20)
Arizona Cardinals (20 Pt System -3/30)
Las Vegas Raiders (20 Pt System -3/20)

5TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
New York Giants ( 20 Pt System 0/20)
Cleveland Browns (20 Pt System 0/20)
Carolina Panthers (20 Pt System -6/20)

6TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
New England Patriots (20 Pt System 0/20)
Los Angeles Rams (20 Pt System -3/20)

7TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Jacksonville Jaguars (20 Pt System -3/20)
 
Last edited:
Loves2kickass said:
Below is the list of Tiers, updated through the 1PM games. FINAL UPDATE MONDAY, 09/30.

Also listed is 20 Pt System and I'll update those as team numbers change weekly. If a team reaches at least 20 pts they're IN the Bowl.


1ST TIER (SB Champ 16/21, 76%, L 21 yrs)
San Francisco 49ers (20 Pt System 3/20)

2ND TIER (SB Champ 3/21, 14%, L 21 yrs)
Pittsburgh Steelers (20 Pt System 9/20)
Minnesota Vikings (20 Pt System 6/20)
Kansas City (20 Pt System 3/20)
New Orleans Saints (20 Pt System 3/20)
Philadelphia Eagles (20 Pt System 0/20)
Tampa Bay (20 Pt System 0/20)
New York Jets (20 Pt System -2/20)
Green Bay Packers (20 Pt System -3/20)

3RD TIER (SB Champ 2/21, 10%, L 21 yrs)
Los Angeles Chargers (20 Pt System 6/20)
Denver Broncos (20 Pt System 4/20)
Houston Texans (20 Pt System 0/20)
Cincinnati Bengals (20 Pt System 0/20)
Indianapolis Colts (20 Pt System 0/20)
Dallas Cowboys (20 Pt System -3/20)

4TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Atlanta Falcons (20 Pt System 0/20)
Chicago Bears (20 Pt System 0/20)
Las Vegas Raiders (20 Pt System -3/20)

5TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
New York Giants ( 20 Pt System 0/20)
Cleveland Browns (20 Pt System 0/20)
Carolina Panthers (20 Pt System -6/20)

6TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
New England Patriots (20 Pt System 0/20)
Los Angeles Rams (20 Pt System -3/20)

7TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Jacksonville Jaguars (20 Pt System -3/20)
Click to expand...

Once you get into a 1st tier is there any way you can be knocked out of it?
 
Below is the list of Tiers, updated through the 1PM games. FINAL UPDATE MONDAY, 09/30. The teams in each Tier are in no particular order. Teams still remaining are Buffalo, Baltimore, Miami, Tennessee, Seattle & Detroit and of those teams only Baltimore, Seattle & Detroit can reach the 1ST TIER.


1ST TIER (SB Champ 16/21, 76%, L 21 yrs)
San Francisco 49ers

2ND TIER (SB Champ 3/21, 14%, L 21 yrs)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Minnesota Vikings
Kansas City
New Orleans Saints
Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay
New York Jets
Green Bay Packers

3RD TIER (SB Champ 2/21, 10%, L 21 yrs)
Los Angeles Chargers
Denver Broncos
Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Commanders
Dallas Cowboys

4TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Atlanta Falcons
Chicago Bears
Arizona Cardinals
Las Vegas Raiders

5TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
New York Giants
Cleveland Browns
Carolina Panthers

6TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams

7TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Jacksonville Jaguars
 
With the teams already locked into Tiers, Kansas City (+500) and Buffalo (+700) SB odds have absolutely zero value as compared to the probability of them winning the Championship. KC is already locked into the 2ND TIER and that's also the ceiling for BUF.
 
Loves2kickass said:
With the teams already locked into Tiers, Kansas City (+500) and Buffalo (+700) SB odds have absolutely zero value as compared to the probability of them winning the Championship. KC is already locked into the 2ND TIER and that's also the ceiling for BUF.
Click to expand...

What does Seattle have to do to get the 1st tier?
 
Loves2kickass said:
There's too many games this week to compute all requirements for all games this week but I've listed tonight's MNF and TNF elimination possibilities. If anyone wants to know about a certain team i can provide that.

Looking at the 2 time, defending champion Chiefs...Interesting enough, Kansas City won't qualify as a 1ST TIER (High Probability) qualifier IF

● Win by less than 10 points @ LA Chargers
OR
● Score less than 5 points @ LA Chargers
OR
● Allow more than 37 points @ LA Chargers

IF 2 or more of the above occur they'll be officially eliminated.
Click to expand...

Only 1 of the 3 occured for KC.
 
When I list the Final results for the Tiers I'll spend the time to add the Super Bowl winners playoff seed the last 21 years so anyone interested can see past history with those as well (combination of Tiers/Playoff seeds)
 
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