Sunday Night Roundtable 08/23/15 - Week 1 continued

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Great job last week by all those involved.

There were some concerns as we closed up shop last week regarding Badet and Boom. As of the 20th, the following injury update doesn't even mention Badet so he is in good shape. Boom was in yesterday's scrimmage, so have to assume he will be a go as things stand today as well.
Injury Update: Initially, Stoops didn't want to give one. "Doesn't matter, honestly," he said. "Guys that are out there are going to play." But he went on to say UK has no major injuries and that starting linebacker Ryan Flannigan (shoulder) is "getting better and getting more range of motion, but I have no idea when he'll return."
Projected starting right tackle Kyle Meadows, who missed most of the early part of camp with migraines and whose participation since then has been sporadic, practiced each of the Cats' last two days.
"That kid's a talented kid," Dawson said. "We just need to keep giving him reps and build his confidence, but he's going to be a vital piece of that deal up front, no doubt."
Perhaps most importantly, starting tailback Stanley "Boom" Williams (knee) said he finally returned to some full-contact work in Friday's practice and coaches have given him the "green light" for Saturday's scrimmage.
 
Here are noted injuries/susp from the past 7 days:

TN DB Rashaan Gaulden OFY
TN OL Austin Sanders OFY
Fresno WR Aaron Peck OFY
Illinois dismissed Darius Paul
Iowa DB Jake Embry is transferring
Iowa RB CJ Hilliard is transferring
UGA DB Kennar Daniels-Johnson likely OFY
USC TE Jalen Cope-Fitzpatrick OFY
Texas TE Blake Whiteley
Vandy OT Andrew Jelks OFY (starter)
Notre Dame CB Shaun Crawford
WMU backup QB Cam Thomas transferring
GaSo QB Kevin Ellison suspended first 2 games
LSU DB Jalen Mills will miss first 3-5 weeks of season
Nebraska WR/KR De'Mornay Pierson-El OFY
BYU starting TE Steven Richards OFY
Wash St added Clemson WR Kyrin Priester and he's eligible immediately
Washington starting OG Dexter Charles retired
App St CB Brandon Pinckney OFY
Ohio TE Troy Mangen OFY
Arkansas RB Jonathan Williams OFY
 
Won't make it tonight, seeing a bunch of high school buddies that I never get to hang out with anymore, for our annual FF draft. Should be a great time.

Take care all.
 
The one question I will submit to the forum would be which bets are people looking at as potential 1H plays instead of 60 minutes.
 
TheGarfather said:
Won't make it tonight, seeing a bunch of high school buddies that I never get to hang out with anymore, for our annual FF draft. Should be a great time.

Take care all.
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Now I know when the remainder of totals at BC and Pinny will come out.
 
TheGarfather said:
The one question I will submit to the forum would be which bets are people looking at as potential 1H plays instead of 60 minutes.
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For me, and I haven't looked at anything but the Scores & Odds web listing of games, I'd go with Baylor (-19.5), Northwestern (+7) and Ohio State (-7).

  • Baylor will use its speed, and the turf of Gerald Ford Field, to put up big numbers against SMU ... 38-7 at the half.
  • Stanford plays an early game and will start slow, using the NFL's west coast team playing the early game angle, against Northwestern.
  • Ohio State is just leaps above Va Tech and will have no trouble getting a double-digit edge before the half, and should win 40-20.

Will do my best to be around tomorrow night, VK. Please pick apart my theories so I don't burn money Week 1.
 
Judge Smails said:
For me, and I haven't looked at anything but the Scores & Odds web listing of games, I'd go with Baylor (-19.5), Northwestern (+7) and Ohio State (-7).

  • Baylor will use its speed, and the turf of Gerald Ford Field, to put up big numbers against SMU ... 38-7 at the half.
  • Stanford plays an early game and will start slow, using the NFL's west coast team playing the early game angle, against Northwestern.
  • Ohio State is just leaps above Va Tech and will have no trouble getting a double-digit edge before the half, and should win 40-20.

Will do my best to be around tomorrow night, VK. Please pick apart my theories so I don't burn money Week 1.
Click to expand...

Some insight on Northwestern, they are still a mess at QB (looks to either be a highly touted RS freshman Thorson who is mobile, or a Sr with a cannon Oliver, but very erratic) and at OL (their best returning OL Frazier is out while recovering from a staph infection). Its gonna be really dicey on offense for the Cats, but they do have a stud RB, and they get their best WR back from a few years ago (albeit after an ACL tear). Their best weapons in the passing game may be their TEs Vitale and Dickerson (they call them superbacks). Way too many question marks on offense for me to make any bets on them. Their defense is going to be very solid. The biggest concern is their DT's against the run. Stanford will probably try to run it down their throats. There is some doubt Kuhar (tabbed as a starter at DT) may not be healthy yet from ACL tear last year against ND. If they can get some of their youth to step up at DT (Fitz is not concerned here, he believes in the young guys), they could have a really good defense this year. But for that defense to be good, they need more than 17 sacks this year (they got 4 against Western Illinois and 4 against Penn state, so a whopping total of 9 in the other 10 games!). I expect 20 sacks this year, as they will move the DE's (Lowry) to the middle and bring in the young specialists (who have put on more weight) to rush from the outside.

Bottom line: Betting for or against NU is like rolling the dice with the question marks at QB/OL. But I'm guessing most every team has question marks.
 
I won't like Baylor first half. It will be close to what I laid for the whole game. Might be -19 with a -35 full game line ... maybe 20 if the book wants....? I think the QB for Baylor is going to be good but can you rely on the timing and everything week 1 in the first half, on the road to cover that type of number? .. I mean 31-7 3 minutes left first half and you still have to sweat. If SMU coach plays fast then it could get ugly, sure. But he has to be smarter than that, doesn't he?
 
ArbyMelt said:
Some insight on Northwestern, they are still a mess at QB (looks to either be a highly touted RS freshman Thorson who is mobile, or a Sr with a cannon Oliver, but very erratic) and at OL (their best returning OL Frazier is out while recovering from a staph infection). Its gonna be really dicey on offense for the Cats, but they do have a stud RB, and they get their best WR back from a few years ago (albeit after an ACL tear). Their best weapons in the passing game may be their TEs Vitale and Dickerson (they call them superbacks). Way too many question marks on offense for me to make any bets on them. Their defense is going to be very solid. The biggest concern is their DT's against the run. Stanford will probably try to run it down their throats. There is some doubt Kuhar (tabbed as a starter at DT) may not be healthy yet from ACL tear last year against ND. If they can get some of their youth to step up at DT (Fitz is not concerned here, he believes in the young guys), they could have a really good defense this year. But for that defense to be good, they need more than 17 sacks this year (they got 4 against Western Illinois and 4 against Penn state, so a whopping total of 9 in the other 10 games!). I expect 20 sacks this year, as they will move the DE's (Lowry) to the middle and bring in the young specialists (who have put on more weight) to rush from the outside.

Bottom line: Betting for or against NU is like rolling the dice with the question marks at QB/OL. But I'm guessing most every team has question marks.
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How do you not go with the Freshman there? He could be the best talent at QB for the school since the 1940's and Otto. Just have to start playing him, I think and let the cards fall where they may.
 
clowncar said:
I won't like Baylor first half. It will be close to what I laid for the whole game. Might be -19 with a -35 full game line ... maybe 20 if the book wants....? I think the QB for Baylor is going to be good but can you rely on the timing and everything week 1 in the first half, on the road to cover that type of number? .. I mean 31-7 3 minutes left first half and you still have to sweat. If SMU coach plays fast then it could get ugly, sure. But he has to be smarter than that, doesn't he?
Click to expand...


Regarding SMU and tempo...

Chad Morris is very active on TWitter and ends each tweet with #PonyUpTempo. After talking non-stop about tempo, I doubt he goes slow in his first game in front of an amped up home crowd. They have zero chance to win so might as well try to score and get some excitement going with the offense. He knows he's going to lose and he'd probably rather lose 66-27 as opposed to 38-7
 
All indications are SMU will play fast; why would they adjust the game plan for Baylor and go slow when they plan on playing fast all year? Simply doesn't make sense.

Can't believe Thorson hasn't been named QB at Northwestern; seems like he fits the offense perfectly and has the most talent/upside being a rFr.
 
thanks cc for the injury report

at the risk of sounding like beano drooling for powlus, i'm on board the rosen bandwagon. hell i like him more than teddy or winston.
 
I guess I am giving Morris too much credit then. It is a horrible coaching decision to go uptempo against a physically superior team that you are a five TD dog to. Not only is it horrible from the concept of the game itself but horrible in that Baylor is already going to be uptempo. You risk attrition for the experience of gametime running of the uptempo offense for 10 extra snaps? Pretty stupid.

They were down 24-0 after one last year. Surely he is not a moron.
 
clowncar said:
I guess I am giving Morris too much credit then. It is a horrible coaching decision to go uptempo against a physically superior team that you are a five TD dog to. Not only is it horrible from the concept of the game itself but horrible in that Baylor is already going to be uptempo. You risk attrition for the experience of gametime running of the uptempo offense for 10 extra snaps? Pretty stupid.

They were down 24-0 after one last year. Surely he is not a moron.
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He's not but you can't preach Tempo for 9 months and then go slow in your first game. You're going to get thumped anyway so take your beating but at least practice your style. This is what Connelly calls a "Year Zero" situation. It doesn't matter if they go 0-12 this year...they're trying to build long term and you do that by establishing an identity early
 
He has the whole season to do that .. letting your kids get thumped 77-17 isn't the way to keep interest or have the kids buy in.
 
clowncar said:
He has the whole season to do that .. letting your kids get thumped 77-17 isn't the way to keep interest or have the kids buy in.
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Preaching tempo, tempo, tempo all offseason, spring and fall but then not doing it because the opponent is bigger and faster isn't exactly the way to instill confidence in your roster either.
 
I realize these are athletes ... and as such ... dumber than most of us .. but if you are a player, you know this is a bad game strategy and now you are supposed to trust the coach going forward? More interested in keeping his offensive reputation than giving you a chance to win? Maybe in today's world that is ok .. and maybe from a recruiting standpoint you create an extreme identity like that and you can start getting better WR recruits.
 
Respectful counterpoint

If I'm a player and my coach has preached tempo and we've practiced tempo and I know that we are going to build with tempo then I'm going to believe in myself and want to go tempo any time, anywhere. But if my coach then says well we are going to go tempo but not when they other team is bigger and stronger, then I start to wonder if that coach really believes what he preaches and if he believes in myself and my teammates
 
Schrute said:
Preaching tempo, tempo, tempo all offseason, spring and fall but then not doing it because the opponent is bigger and faster isn't exactly the way to instill confidence in your roster either.
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You can feign it enough times and be smart.

I suppose he could go uptempo and hand it off all game to the worst rb in the conference. That doesn't seem like a good idea. If he goes lightning fast, Baylor hits 80 and he will be out at least one starter by the end of the game. But when you have depth like SMU that isn't an issue.
 
clowncar said:
You can feign it enough times and be smart.

I suppose he could go uptempo and hand it off all game to the worst rb in the conference. That doesn't seem like a good idea. If he goes lightning fast, Baylor hits 80 and he will be out at least one starter by the end of the game. But when you have depth like SMU that isn't an issue.
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Haven't all the studies thus far shown that tempo has zero predictive support on injury rate. Steelers and Packers are dropping like flies in this preseason game and it's not like they're lighting up the pace
 
Now maybe he does feign it with short passes and runs. That I wouldn't argue with but I just don't see how you go in this game and snap the ball with less than 10 seconds on the play clock after preaching tempo for 9 months. I still think he'd rather lose 70-21 than he would 45-7

But Briles and Morris are long time friends from the Texas HS ranks so Briles probably won't run it up either. I could certainly see things slowing down 2H once the obvious has happened but I just won't believe Morris will come out slow until I see it happen
 
BTW here's the Morris quote from last week that adds to my beliefs stated above:

On his tempo philosophy:
“Tempo is not something you just see on Saturdays. Tempo is the way we run our program from the ground level up because everybody that touches our players has to have the same culture because culture trumps strategy all day everyday. Tempo is part of our culture, starting in our training room, our equipment room and in our staff room.”
 
Schrute said:
Respectful counterpoint

If I'm a player and my coach has preached tempo and we've practiced tempo and I know that we are going to build with tempo then I'm going to believe in myself and want to go tempo any time, anywhere. But if my coach then says well we are going to go tempo but not when they other team is bigger and stronger, then I start to wonder if that coach really believes what he preaches and if he believes in myself and my teammates
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If I am on a lesser team, I limit snaps. My team has won one of its last 14 games and I am playing the masters of uptempo who are arguably one of the top five teams in the nation. I want to win or be given the chance to win. This would be like the runnin rebels back in the day playing Princeton with a new coach who came and preached uptempo all offseason. You cannot do it.

I guess I am giving the players and the coach too much credit here. If they are relegated to losing (and losing huge) and just scoring then so be it. You can't back a program like that, with a coach like that with your money very often, that is for sure. If the SMU players think they can run uptempo with Baylor and have THAT kind of confidence then I guess you get a nice teaching point about how far they still have to go when they lose by 50 or 60. Break them down to the base level and try to bring them back up. I wouldn't do that with the most winnable fbs game on the schedule being week two, but to each their own.
 
Schrute said:
BTW here's the Morris quote from last week that adds to my beliefs stated above:

On his tempo philosophy:
“Tempo is not something you just see on Saturdays. Tempo is the way we run our program from the ground level up because everybody that touches our players has to have the same culture because culture trumps strategy all day everyday. Tempo is part of our culture, starting in our training room, our equipment room and in our staff room.”
Click to expand...

Three years max at SMU.
 
clowncar said:
If I am on a lesser team, I limit snaps. I agree 99% of the time but not when you've preached what Morris has

My team has won one of its last 14 games and I am playing the masters of uptempo who are arguably one of the top five teams in the nation. I want to win or be given the chance to win. They have no chance to win. Now I wouldn't tell the players that but Morris knows it

This would be like the runnin rebels back in the day playing Princeton with a new coach who came and preached uptempo all offseason. You cannot do it. Disagree as Princeton had a proven system that beat and competed with the big boys. SMU doesn't have that and are starting from scratch.

I guess I am giving the players and the coach too much credit here. If they are relegated to losing (and losing huge) and just scoring then so be it. I think this is essentially a scrimmage

You can't back a program like that, with a coach like that with your money very often, that is for sure. Agree especially when playing a superior opponent who mirrors them but does everything they do FAR FAR better

If the SMU players think they can run uptempo with Baylor and have THAT kind of confidence then I guess you get a nice teaching point about how far they still have to go when they lose by 50 or 60. Break them down to the base level and try to bring them back up. Yes I think that is what you do here

I wouldn't do that with the most winnable fbs game on the schedule being week two, but to each their own. Good point about Week 2 but I'm not sure Morris will view it that way.
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My thoughts above...good discussion here
 
I also don't rule out a 38-7 type score at half with the final being 52-17 because of the long time friendship
 
I need to reconsider that total if he is going to be dumb ... and reconsider taking more Baylor. If he goes uptempo, Baylor -35 is the best play on current board.

The friendship thing might mean backups faster but if the defense is exhausted it won't matter.
 
CC you make it sound like if they slow it down on offense they'll actually have a chance to win; that just isn't the case and I'm pretty sure the SMU HC knows that.

This will be a glorified, high-paced scrimmage to get his young players as many reps as possible thru the depth chart.

I don't get why you think Morris is so stupid for doing this.
 
clowncar said:
I guess I am giving Morris too much credit then. It is a horrible coaching decision to go uptempo against a physically superior team that you are a five TD dog to. Not only is it horrible from the concept of the game itself but horrible in that Baylor is already going to be uptempo. You risk attrition for the experience of gametime running of the uptempo offense for 10 extra snaps? Pretty stupid.

They were down 24-0 after one last year. Surely he is not a moron.
Click to expand...
Slow tempo, fast tempo they aint winning the game. If Morris philosophy is to have his team play up tempo, u stick with that. Clown, what should he tell his team, "well we will play fast agaiant north Texas and Idaho but we will slow it down there for the rest of our schedule so we don't get killed"
 
I can't even read anymore from clowncar sorry.. First he posts he is a capper that helps teach the forum, fine. Now he he an expert coach and x and o guru. Just cuz u know some capping doesn't mean u have one freaking clue about coaching. Were u ever in a locker room as a coach? I'd bet no, probably never even played.
U think the smu players give two fucks they are 44 pt dogs? Half the kids don't even know the line. Here is something dude, everyone doesn't bet. So yes most kids will know they are the underdog cuz they are coming off a shit season vs a bcs bowl team but big deal? The offense is thinking fuck it lets do something special, so is the defense. So if there coach is preaching we are going up tempo u do that game 1 play one.
So what are u a grand capper or a x and o football mind?
 
horses said:
CC you make it sound like if they slow it down on offense they'll actually have a chance to win; that just isn't the case and I'm pretty sure the SMU HC knows that.

This will be a glorified, high-paced scrimmage to get his young players as many reps as possible thru the depth chart.

I don't get why you think Morris is so stupid for doing this.
Click to expand...

Teach your kids to quit. That will never be my philosophy. But at least for your ten or fifteen extra snaps you are at risk of losing a player or two long term against a team who will dominate you physically. If you are dropping your season long starting QB back that many times, just be ready for the ass pounding and then you can get your second string QB in there for snaps in your next game when he has to start that.
 
dudleysdad said:
I can't even read anymore from clowncar sorry.. First he posts he is a capper that helps teach the forum, fine. Now he he an expert coach and x and o guru. Just cuz u know some capping doesn't mean u have one freaking clue about coaching. Were u ever in a locker room as a coach? I'd bet no, probably never even played.
U think the smu players give two fucks they are 44 pt dogs? Half the kids don't even know the line. Here is something dude, everyone doesn't bet. So yes most kids will know they are the underdog cuz they are coming off a shit season vs a bcs bowl team but big deal? The offense is thinking fuck it lets do something special, so is the defense. So if there coach is preaching we are going up tempo u do that game 1 play one.
So what are u a grand capper or a x and o football mind?
Click to expand...


ehhh:popcorn:
 
dudleysdad said:
I can't even read anymore from clowncar sorry.. First he posts he is a capper that helps teach the forum, fine. Now he he an expert coach and x and o guru. Just cuz u know some capping doesn't mean u have one freaking clue about coaching. Were u ever in a locker room as a coach? I'd bet no, probably never even played.
U think the smu players give two fucks they are 44 pt dogs? Half the kids don't even know the line. Here is something dude, everyone doesn't bet. So yes most kids will know they are the underdog cuz they are coming off a shit season vs a bcs bowl team but big deal? The offense is thinking fuck it lets do something special, so is the defense. So if there coach is preaching we are going up tempo u do that game 1 play one.
So what are u a grand capper or a x and o football mind?
Click to expand...

I am grand at being a good person. Not too great at capping and not too great at coaching. Sad that covers is less toxic than CTG now.
 
I will take a break from giving my opinions around here and just post my plays. Have a good season Dudley.
 
clowncar said:
I will take a break from giving my opinions around here and just post my plays. Have a good season Dudley.
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Cuz of one post from Wade?

I thought the posts between you, myself and horses were friendly though we disagreed in strategy.
 
clowncar said:
Teach your kids to quit. That will never be my philosophy. But at least for your ten or fifteen extra snaps you are at risk of losing a player or two long term against a team who will dominate you physically. If you are dropping your season long starting QB back that many times, just be ready for the ass pounding and then you can get your second string QB in there for snaps in your next game when he has to start that.
Click to expand...

If you think that is teaching kids to quit, we view it quite differently. Hardly the case imo. Also don't understand how you can conclude Morris will only last 3 years based on the notion that he is going to do something that you don't agree with in his first game v an opponent that is clearly superior. It's just not that big a deal. You play the way you've been taught the last 9 months (since spring practice) and get better at it going forward. These kids don't care if they lose 47-10 or 70-28. Not everyone views these games thru the prism of a handicapper (hard to believe, I know).
 
Schrute said:
Cuz of one post from Wade?

I thought the posts between you, myself and horses were friendly though we disagreed in strategy.
Click to expand...
Geez talk about thin skin.

Sorry I have an opinion that the coach should coach towards the philosophy he was hired to and recruited to..
 
horses said:
If you think that is teaching kids to quit, we view it quite differently. Hardly the case imo. Also don't understand how you can conclude Morris will only last 3 years based on the notion that he is going to do something that you don't agree with in his first game v an opponent that is clearly superior. It's just not that big a deal. You play the way you've been taught the last 9 months (since spring practice) and get better at it going forward. These kids don't care if they lose 47-10 or 70-28. Not everyone views these games thru the prism of a handicapper (hard to believe, I know).
Click to expand...

Yes
 
Just saw in clowns plays thread he is on the under smu/Baylor
Now I see why he wants Morris to change his entire philosophy for one game
I guess clown assumed Morris's would slow it down and now reading that Morris is going to pump the gas he is flustered
 
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