Sunday MLB Discussion
- Thread starter BetCrimes1984
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Seabass
Pretty much a regular
You see something in his delivery?
cogenman
Raider Nation for Life
the error by his teammate didn't help his cause. he shoulda been out of the inning already.
Satyr
Paster of Muppets
yes Seabass, his command seems off. I know how filthy he usually is and this is far from it. He may disprove me now still a long way to go but to do what he did in the 1st inning...I would be worried had I backed him.
fortunately I'm on CWS. We'll see, maybe the A's bounce back from all this and bite me in the arse. You never know with this shit.
fortunately I'm on CWS. We'll see, maybe the A's bounce back from all this and bite me in the arse. You never know with this shit.
dennishopson
Pretty much a regular
I do..........:shake:
Harden goes tomorrow against the chisox. He recently said his arm felt like it was dead in his last start and his velocity was down. This is from July 3rd...
<TABLE class=s_playerNewsTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 <tr><TBODY><TR><TD class=s_playerNewsTitle style="BACKGROUND: #003831"><TABLE class=s_playerNewsTitle cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD align=left width=33></TD><TD align=left>Rich Harden-S- Athletics</TD><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 10px" align=right>Jul. 3 - 9:07 am et</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TD style="BACKGROUND: #003831" width=14>
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</TD><TD class=s_playerNewsLeftBorder></TD><TD class=s_playerNewsText>Rich Harden experienced decreased velocity during his start Tuesday against the Angels and said afterward that he had "kind of a dead arm."
His fastball was down 4-5 mph and several Angels hitters indicated afterward that they thought he was hurt, but Harden said that he's fine. Given his long history of injuries, it's more of a concern that it would be for most pitchers.
Source: San Francisco Chronicle
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Not a suprise he has dead arm this is one of the longest stretches of starts for Harden in his entire career . Rarely has he been able to go 10 straight turns in his career due to assorted injuries....so he probably is hitting a wall and battling just to having nothing ...:shake:
Trueblue
Pretty much a regular
beats the shit out of me why the LAA total is at 8.5
Toronto is a good day team and they proved that they could hit Lackey yesterday who actually pitched a decent game. Just a few hanging pitches and stupid ass errors that caused him the game. Now they put out a contact pitcher in Garland to face the Jays. His bread and butter is his changeup that he works craftily into his pitches. His day splits are worse because his changeup is more visible in the daylight, thus less deceptive. He could well pitch a decent game, but no way does he make it through untouched here, imo.
Litsch is one of those guys that made me a lot of money at the beginning of the year. He is a location pitcher with pinpoint accuracy at times and rarely walks anyone. He however, gives up a lot of hits when batters stretch the plate and go after balls. His whip is high since he doesn't go for the K's because he doesnt have a great finishing pitch. I think if you get a decent lineup with figgi, izturis, matthews, kotch, aybar, you got a shot at getting a lot of guys on base. Once again, i can see him pitch a gem, but not without letting a lot of men on base and getting saved in jams.
campos at the plate. Dont really see him as a make or break, but is a visitor oriented ump this year.
Jays have ALWAYS played the angels hard. They are one of those teams that can win at angels stadium on any day. There is just something about them that disregards the homefield advantage for LA. Cautious on a side for both pens are really good and either SP can be touched up. I like, but dont love the over in this spot..
Toronto is a good day team and they proved that they could hit Lackey yesterday who actually pitched a decent game. Just a few hanging pitches and stupid ass errors that caused him the game. Now they put out a contact pitcher in Garland to face the Jays. His bread and butter is his changeup that he works craftily into his pitches. His day splits are worse because his changeup is more visible in the daylight, thus less deceptive. He could well pitch a decent game, but no way does he make it through untouched here, imo.
Litsch is one of those guys that made me a lot of money at the beginning of the year. He is a location pitcher with pinpoint accuracy at times and rarely walks anyone. He however, gives up a lot of hits when batters stretch the plate and go after balls. His whip is high since he doesn't go for the K's because he doesnt have a great finishing pitch. I think if you get a decent lineup with figgi, izturis, matthews, kotch, aybar, you got a shot at getting a lot of guys on base. Once again, i can see him pitch a gem, but not without letting a lot of men on base and getting saved in jams.
campos at the plate. Dont really see him as a make or break, but is a visitor oriented ump this year.
Jays have ALWAYS played the angels hard. They are one of those teams that can win at angels stadium on any day. There is just something about them that disregards the homefield advantage for LA. Cautious on a side for both pens are really good and either SP can be touched up. I like, but dont love the over in this spot..
Playing under 10.5 and Under 5.5 1st 5 innings @ Coors .
Two teams with injuries FLA will be w/o Uggla , cantu and Willingham while Col is minus taveras , Helton and Troy .....
Neither team known for day slugging ....Spillsborough 8-48 so far in day games and hits leadoff . Just 12 hrs an d 54 rbi from COL's lineup in day games (116- 419 ) . Fla outside of Hanley who is a beat with 8hrs and 325 clip dont do much . Helms 10-42 (2bb to 14K) is the 3 hitter . Gonzo has 1 rbi and is 12/47 .255 clip . Florida has 20hrs and 50 rbi but again 8hrs from Hanley ......Amezga = better defense ...as does cantu sitting ...
Hendrickson real terrible in day starts but think he can be solid for 5 innings allowing 3 maybe 4 runs .....He has good limited history vs COL only 9-31 with no xbhs vs him. He starts to run into problems innings 4 to 6 usually .....
Cook whats to say ?
Might play the COL ML
Two teams with injuries FLA will be w/o Uggla , cantu and Willingham while Col is minus taveras , Helton and Troy .....
Neither team known for day slugging ....Spillsborough 8-48 so far in day games and hits leadoff . Just 12 hrs an d 54 rbi from COL's lineup in day games (116- 419 ) . Fla outside of Hanley who is a beat with 8hrs and 325 clip dont do much . Helms 10-42 (2bb to 14K) is the 3 hitter . Gonzo has 1 rbi and is 12/47 .255 clip . Florida has 20hrs and 50 rbi but again 8hrs from Hanley ......Amezga = better defense ...as does cantu sitting ...
Hendrickson real terrible in day starts but think he can be solid for 5 innings allowing 3 maybe 4 runs .....He has good limited history vs COL only 9-31 with no xbhs vs him. He starts to run into problems innings 4 to 6 usually .....
Cook whats to say ?
Might play the COL ML
Sorry bro. Not really . I played Cubbies actually and under . The last few thats what I was looking at but havent gotten back to them yet think Tor is a play but not definite..GL:shake::cheers:
Jays ML and lesser over 8.5
Litsch 2.16 ERA in 6 day starts and just 3 walks in 51.1 innings on normal rest wth a 2.45 ERA . Two solid starts vs LAA in his career as well.
Garland so-so vs Jays in his career but really struggled in day starts recent seasons with 6 ERA . Factor in extra rest where his BAA is above 300 so far this year and he tends to switch year to year by days restbut alwasy extreme splits like 333 with exa rest 2 years ago.......
Jays 10-2 on Sundays ....
Litsch 2.16 ERA in 6 day starts and just 3 walks in 51.1 innings on normal rest wth a 2.45 ERA . Two solid starts vs LAA in his career as well.
Garland so-so vs Jays in his career but really struggled in day starts recent seasons with 6 ERA . Factor in extra rest where his BAA is above 300 so far this year and he tends to switch year to year by days restbut alwasy extreme splits like 333 with exa rest 2 years ago.......
Jays 10-2 on Sundays ....
jimbo1227
Nice around mics, word to pippen
i grabbed me some NYY ML & Under 9. i wouldnt advise taking -1.5 because when boston loses it is by one run for the vast majority. they have lost 13 str8 one run games on the road? dont quote me on that but i read something like that. boston is pretty cold with the exceptions of lowell & pedroia. just like what you would think w/ NYY against wakefield, pretty low avg's but some big time power numbers. you either can't hit the ball or if you hit it right you can hit it 10 miles. i personally think joba steps up big tonight and a motivated yankee team should get a couple big fly's and hopefully that is enough. yank bullpen has been doin the damn thing and if joba gives me 6-7 solid innings it should be sealed. yanks get the day off tomorrow before a big series against TB. no day off for boston and they will be looking forward to getting home after this long road trip. i have been picking my spots and slamming wake recently. he is in a good groove but this yankee team has seen plenty of wake and that is half the fuckin battle. i pounded the shit out of wake when he faced arizona because they had never seen him and that was an easy dominating game for him. big, big game for yanks and we all know they own TB so if they can salvage this split and then take care of business against TB they should be in good shape heading into the break. GL everybody
Kmacc
Air Raid Returns!
A Rod's wife expected to file for divorce on Monday, guess she is tired of all the women on the side. Hope you got a prenup cause damn that would be nice to get 1/2 of that.
About the game how can you possibly lay that price with tha walk a thon that is Joba. This one seems like Boston or nothing for me, price is way too high and don't think Joba will win this game 65% of the time. Looking at Over 8.5, want to see lineups first
About the game how can you possibly lay that price with tha walk a thon that is Joba. This one seems like Boston or nothing for me, price is way too high and don't think Joba will win this game 65% of the time. Looking at Over 8.5, want to see lineups first
I think it is odd the line is so high on NYY. I would think it was just the public team showing an inflated line, but we're talking about two of the three public darlings when it comes to MLB betting. Nothing points to Joba being that high a fave, and when something looks odd to me, there is usually some underlying reason that seems to affect the outcome of a bet each time.
jimbo1227
Nice around mics, word to pippen
public is split on the ML and you can bet your ass vegas isnt going to set themselves up to get nailed on a +150 boston. when boston is this big of a dog it is for good reason. this is a fucking brutal situation for b town. here are a few tidbits for ya'll.
boston is 18-17 against the AL east, 12-3 at fenway, but just 6-14 on the road.
i was correct in saying boston has lost 13 straight one run games away from home. they haven't won a one run game away since april 1 in oakland. (pulling an atlanta brave i see)
boston has lost its last 5 one-run decisions, all in the last 8 games. so, like i said when boston loses they keep it close and they will cover that +1.5
satyr, if manny is out that would be ridiculously huge for both of my bets. manny is a str8 up yankee killer. he is batting .467 w/ 14 homers and 38 rbi's in 36 games against the yankees from 06-08. batting .375 w/ 27 homers, 70 rbi's in 74 games against the yanks since '04. he has 55 HR's and 160 RBI's in his career against the pinstripes, his most vs. one club. he ranks third ALL-TIME in the history of the mlb in hr's and rbi's against the yanks. so ya i would say him being out would be a good thing. maybe books knew that early??
boston is 18-17 against the AL east, 12-3 at fenway, but just 6-14 on the road.
i was correct in saying boston has lost 13 straight one run games away from home. they haven't won a one run game away since april 1 in oakland. (pulling an atlanta brave i see)
boston has lost its last 5 one-run decisions, all in the last 8 games. so, like i said when boston loses they keep it close and they will cover that +1.5
satyr, if manny is out that would be ridiculously huge for both of my bets. manny is a str8 up yankee killer. he is batting .467 w/ 14 homers and 38 rbi's in 36 games against the yankees from 06-08. batting .375 w/ 27 homers, 70 rbi's in 74 games against the yanks since '04. he has 55 HR's and 160 RBI's in his career against the pinstripes, his most vs. one club. he ranks third ALL-TIME in the history of the mlb in hr's and rbi's against the yanks. so ya i would say him being out would be a good thing. maybe books knew that early??
Trueblue
Pretty much a regular
i think joba cleans up for this game. He knows he was a piece of shit last time out. This guy rides on emotion and if there was 1 lesson learned last outing, it was to stop being a wannabe hot shot and throw some damn strikes. (yes im still bitter) Wake tends to get hit versus teams <.500, give me the ML.
Trueblue
Pretty much a regular
shit. didnt see diaz at the dish.... Damnit.. I didnt want to play the under, but now mi really have to consider it at u8.5 +110.... NYY/BOS @ NY tend to go under as BC84's thread states... Would like to hear SN's thoughts on this guy. It's out of my realm of comfort.
Kmacc
Air Raid Returns!
I am goin with Red Sox +1.5 tonight as both starters lack the consistency for me to be too confident with any play. Really just want some action as I have had a pretty good day. So small play on the Sox +1.5 and 1/2 as much on Sox ml.
Would lean Over 8.5
Expecting something like:
Red Sox 6
Yanks 5
Would lean Over 8.5
Expecting something like:
Red Sox 6
Yanks 5
TheSportsThing
Go NY Go NY Go Go Go
I'm running with Boston at +162. That's enough value for me.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
The last 3 Sunday Nighters have all been covered by the Fav on the runline. Thats just the 2nd instance of a triple Fav RL cover since 2005. I've yet to record 4 straight in that time. And not only that, they've been easy plays to make -
Saunders vs Campillo (Angels off 2 losses w/their "winningist" pitcher going)
Dempster vs Vazquez (guy in great form vs high ERA/50% road record)
Buehrle vs Marshall (guy in great form vs yet-to-record-a-win)
The chasers from the day games have had it easy 3 straight weeks.
FWIW, I think the loser scores 3-4 runs. These 2 teams do not have a recent history of backing up 3-4-5 run games with another 3-4-5 run game.
Saunders vs Campillo (Angels off 2 losses w/their "winningist" pitcher going)
Dempster vs Vazquez (guy in great form vs high ERA/50% road record)
Buehrle vs Marshall (guy in great form vs yet-to-record-a-win)
The chasers from the day games have had it easy 3 straight weeks.
FWIW, I think the loser scores 3-4 runs. These 2 teams do not have a recent history of backing up 3-4-5 run games with another 3-4-5 run game.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
As far as the ump goes, no ump has been able to hold back these teams when they're in the mood to go at it against each other. The 1 clash of teams where I'd undervalue the Umps traits if they were counter to an Over bias.
CharlieBX
Friend of CTG
That triple RL fave trend is really enticing me to jump on Boston +1.5. It does seem too easy for the late night chasers again I suppose to take Joba the "young phenom". But at the same time the thing that's scaring me is Boston seems a bit too easy with "so much value".
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Charlie - Joba the phenom going to try and prevent the Yankees losing the series 1-3, and also lose touch with Boston in the standings? vs a guy the Yanks have owned in recent seasons?
seems to me the basic storyline of this game is why the prices are where they are, no?
seems to me the basic storyline of this game is why the prices are where they are, no?
Kmacc
Air Raid Returns!
to me this game really isn't about Joba, he can limit the damage for the Sox but guys is making just his 7th start and this is still Yanks/Sox. You have the less experienced starter, vs the better overall team and you have to lay -165. If you think the Yanks bullpen can hold down the Sox after you get 5 innings out of Joba by all mean play the Yanks but see this game being even going into the 7th inning and would much rather have + money with the Sox and their bullpen than lay it with tha Spanks at this point.
GL with whatever you play
GL with whatever you play
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
1 inn, 1 walk
& Lowell shows uncharacteristic impatience
& Lowell shows uncharacteristic impatience
Got stuck paying attention to the other games ...
Basically even before Manny was OUT NYY ML was my play . Besides the obvious fact NYY doesnt want to lose the series we still have alot of pluses for NYY here IMO.
First Wakefield L10 starts vs NYY the Red Sox have lost 8 times ! Including 4 of 5 at the Stadium . Wake has been on a tear but look who and when he faced them..Seattle twice , Balt ( does well vs the O's) , the who's who of slumping NL teams Cincy , StL (minus Pujols off the home sweep of KC) and Zona , then recently TB which is indoors great for the knuckleball. So think there was a reason for his great success ...struggling lineups !
Last year vs NYY 5.1 inn 3 runs , 5 inn 6 runs and 3.2 inn 8 runs . In 06 not much better after the 1st start 7inn 3 runs , then 6inn 3 runs then 7runs in 6.2 innings .
He has lost 7 of 10 away this year and didnt get much run support .
Joba whats to say ? He throws strikes consistently he is filthy . If he is slider and curve are on he is near unhittable .
Just looking at this series Boston has not played any better then NYY has . The opening game we all know Yanks came out flat for whatever reason and 2 run error and 2 run blooper . Next game they jump on beckett for 3 runs in the 1st but Damon gets hurt on the sic attempt in LF an not only do they not lad 3-1 its tied and Damon gets hurt . Beckett vs Rasner ? Seriously ...Yesterday Yanks didnt do much but they stopped Boston from doing anything . Moose has been good but go from Moose to Joba ....then subtract Manny (and Ortiz) ...think about Yanks you get 3 good young arms in Lester , Beckett and Masterson now face Wake ....
So played NYY ML couple units , the run line -1.5 +120 small and 1st 5 innings over 5 runs Even as well. Wake has usually been chased around the 5th and 6th inn by Yanks of late . So looking for some runs in the middle innings for NYY and still expect Boston to hang 1 or 2 on Joba in the early going ..
Sorry I couldnt share my thoughts earlier :shake:GL all:cheers:
Basically even before Manny was OUT NYY ML was my play . Besides the obvious fact NYY doesnt want to lose the series we still have alot of pluses for NYY here IMO.
First Wakefield L10 starts vs NYY the Red Sox have lost 8 times ! Including 4 of 5 at the Stadium . Wake has been on a tear but look who and when he faced them..Seattle twice , Balt ( does well vs the O's) , the who's who of slumping NL teams Cincy , StL (minus Pujols off the home sweep of KC) and Zona , then recently TB which is indoors great for the knuckleball. So think there was a reason for his great success ...struggling lineups !
Last year vs NYY 5.1 inn 3 runs , 5 inn 6 runs and 3.2 inn 8 runs . In 06 not much better after the 1st start 7inn 3 runs , then 6inn 3 runs then 7runs in 6.2 innings .
He has lost 7 of 10 away this year and didnt get much run support .
Joba whats to say ? He throws strikes consistently he is filthy . If he is slider and curve are on he is near unhittable .
Just looking at this series Boston has not played any better then NYY has . The opening game we all know Yanks came out flat for whatever reason and 2 run error and 2 run blooper . Next game they jump on beckett for 3 runs in the 1st but Damon gets hurt on the sic attempt in LF an not only do they not lad 3-1 its tied and Damon gets hurt . Beckett vs Rasner ? Seriously ...Yesterday Yanks didnt do much but they stopped Boston from doing anything . Moose has been good but go from Moose to Joba ....then subtract Manny (and Ortiz) ...think about Yanks you get 3 good young arms in Lester , Beckett and Masterson now face Wake ....
So played NYY ML couple units , the run line -1.5 +120 small and 1st 5 innings over 5 runs Even as well. Wake has usually been chased around the 5th and 6th inn by Yanks of late . So looking for some runs in the middle innings for NYY and still expect Boston to hang 1 or 2 on Joba in the early going ..
Sorry I couldnt share my thoughts earlier :shake:GL all:cheers:
