I hear you Johnny, and I’ve told
You before in PM that I am a cynical prick when it comes to stuff like this. I didn’t believe all the shit I was hearing about this guy either.
But I study the fuck out of handicapping and call out scummy fucks and shitty people trying to rip people off when I see it.
This dude is just a crazy mega-super-math nerd. In The Pod I was listening to he referenced how his model has a significant valuation difference for teams based on the replacement value of their backups.
For example he said his value of the Astros took a huge hit when Stassi had to replace McCann on a regular basis. And because of that he’s been fading the Astros a lot because of it.
Said he essentially follows his model with the exception of 2 teams: KC and Baltimore because when he put their rosters in the model before the season it said they were going to be historically bad and he has huge unders on both. BUT...that because they were such outliers he excludes them from his system to reduce variance.
This isn’t your average bear capping bases, boys. Dude has some shit figured out. For me to walk away impressed after looking further into it is a major statement and I was really impressed with how the guy approaches sports betting.
