Sunday July 29 discussion: is Freddy Krueger coming for the favorites again?

Lol.. I had to look this up..

ob·fus·cate
ˈäbfəˌskāt/
verb
  1. render obscure, unclear, or unintelligible

Johnnyonthespot said:
A person up 500 units is straight sensationalism.

What is his actual record of picks. If each pick was a unit? Pretty Yag to tout and say all of these are 1 unit plays but the yankees are a 20 unit play and the Twins, make it 5 units. Its arbitrary and deliberately trying to obfuscate skills.
Click to expand...
 
its a good word.

id rather see 166-137 48.5 units or something, instead of him going heavy on some and changing the weight of everything
 
T-Rex said:
He is just posting units, I don’t get the confusion? More units on games that he is more confident in or that are more indicated based on his numbers. I mean, I bet bigger on games I like more, that only makes sense to me
Click to expand...

IMO thats a losing strategy. Might work for this tout, this year, but you keep your own list and tell me how many times you win/lose when you go heavier cause you are feeling it, dont worry I know the answer. You flat bet cause you know in the long run you going to win, you dont change the weight because what happens if you lose
 
Johnny I firmly believe in confidence betting and chasing

Flat betting would mean needing to hit at least 53% which I just don't believe in
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
IMO thats a losing strategy. Might work for this tout, this year, but you keep your own list and tell me how many times you win/lose when you go heavier cause you are feeling it, dont worry I know the answer. You flat bet cause you know in the long run you going to win, you dont change the weight because what happens if you lose
Click to expand...

dude's not a tout, people trying to tip him and he said he didn't want tips, just donate to charity and he listed a fewView attachment 33848
 
Jesus Johnny you‘re trying to find every negative angle about this guy who you don‘t know and whose system you haven‘t found out about. Just chill and play what you wanna play lol
 
I was fully ready to give this system a try, figures that today there were literally no confidence plays/odds (greater than 5%), haha
 
It's pretty obvious by reading his pinned tweet that he's no tout, I commend the guy

Not going to tail him, but seems genuine
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Jesus Johnny you‘re trying to find every negative angle about this guy who you don‘t know and whose system you haven‘t found out about. Just chill and play what you wanna play lol
Click to expand...

Not sure at all what you are talking about, but let me make it simple for yall.

Regarding baseball or even crimsonk for that matter. Let's say you bet with real money, say 1K a game. If you knew Berry was going to grind out that type of win percentage, and could see that come October you would be up 65k, you would be wrong to bet $5k on the Twins today.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Not sure at all what you are talking about, but let me make it simple for yall.

Regarding baseball or even crimsonk for that matter. Let's say you bet with real money, say 1K a game. If you knew Berry was going to grind out that type of win percentage, and could see that come October you would be up 65k, you would be wrong to bet $5k on the Twins today.
Click to expand...
Well using that if he's up over 500 units (I'm not looking) he would be up 500k+ so 5k would be a drop in the bucket
 
I'm not saying he's a tout. Maybe he is vain, maybe a narcissist, who knows, but save that multi unit bullshit tout leverage nonsense, can we just say he's up 50 units or do you fanboys need to jizz on the 500 unit fantasy?
 
I'm a volume bettor, plain and simple. Flat betting would wreck me. Confidence betting is how I make volume work (sometimes)
 
And the size of the unit is different for different sports, strengths and weaknesses....but it's always consistent for the entire season within the sport. Not like it changes mid-season.
 
Inspekdah said:
Was the A's epic run a flash in the pan? Awful offense @ Coors last two nights. Scoring 2 runs total over 18 frames. Scoring 0 in 16 of them.

Hits seem to be there, though.
Click to expand...

Yea I dunno, crazy they couldn’t muster any runs yesterday off a guy who had been allowing such a high hard contact rate and in that park.
 
KJ, I'm not saying the way you wager is wrong. What I am saying is that this guy is looks solid. So play it safe, up your unit size, keep it consistent, dont risk the money train. How happy would you be up 65 k, knowing that you ain't never giving it back? Keep grinding, keep upping unit size, but be consistent is all, it's hard to do when you dont respect your unit amount.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
KJ, I'm not saying the way you wager is wrong. What I am saying is that this guy is looks solid. So play it safe, up your unit size, keep it consistent, dont risk the money train. How happy would you be up 65 k, knowing that you ain't never giving it back? Keep grinding, keep upping unit size, but be consistent is all, it's hard to do when you dont respect your unit amount.
Click to expand...
It's relative tho, If you're up 65k, 1k wasn't your unit size...it's all percentages and most of his wagers were several units anyway. Again, I'm not following some system, but good on him
 
Came in here to provide a little clarification, boys...

The guy you’re talking about is a twitter poster named Berryhorse.

1. He is NOT a tout. He posts all of his picks for free on his Tweeter Page.

2. His system and the expected value for the bet fluctuation sizes comes from his model, which takes into account like 600 factors.

Basically he values each player IN THE STARTING LINEUP at they are valued in comparison to historical trends dating back to comparable players at the same time age etc over the last 50-60 years. If the starting lineup changes, the bet valuation could change.

3. He only bets games (at least from the Podcast I heard him talk on) once he gets to the 5% or greater expected run valuation based on the SP going against the lineup for that day.

He is 100% a math geek. But his model in essence takes expected runs and the valuation of the SP’s to create a line he compares to the Pinny line. If he sees the edge based on his numbers he bets what his model tells him to bet.

4. I’ve never followed one thing the guy has done (tailing I mean), but this dude is straight up the exact opposite of a tout. He gives free information based on a super nerdy model he designed and shares it on Twitter. The spreadsheet is just to document everything.

Finally, I’ve seen tweets of people wanting to pay him as recently as This week and he has told them to donate the money to charitable causes.

Like I said, just here to clarify, but in this hobby we all have, a good dude with NO bad scummy tout intentions deserves to have the facts laid out about what he’s doing.

Hope this sheds a little Light on the guy, gentlemen.
 
Phillies hard to like as playoff team when they keep stinking it up on the road. Reds also a much better team than before though
 
KJ said:
It's relative tho, If you're up 65k, 1k wasn't your unit size...it's all percentages and most of his wagers were several units anyway. Again, I'm not following some system, but good on him
Click to expand...

Berry looks to to have placed about 300 wagers and I guess assuming dogs were a certain average could be up like 65 units without any drawdown. So if you bet 1k with him each game this MLB season you would be up in a real way, holy grail if you grind and keeps it up
 
Not disparaging dude but pointing out how amazing his record is I guess, and how much you could make without risk if you took wider view and ground out day after day, instead of 10 units, it's hard enough to pick winners let alone weight them
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Cards have solid contrarian value imo
Click to expand...

Looking pretty hard at the over in that one (havnt checked out ump yet). Really tough to see Gant sustaining success with how poor his k/bb ratio been the last 2 months (damn near even) and a 46% hard contact rate to go along with it! He navigated his way thru 5 scoreless last weekend in Chicago but just don’t see that happening again.

Hendricks has pitched 10 innings vs us this year and allowed 6 runs, I don’t think the offensive uptick is flukey at all considering how good our obp has been and the good exit velo’s of the guys we need to have driving in runs. Maybe little bothersome that it was only 1 inning yesterday than nothing after, game 1 they had 12 hits thru 5 off starter than not one off the scrubbies pen. Possible 1st 5 instead of game? Kinda think our pen could become a strength with the youngsters replacing all the overpaid bums.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Not disparaging dude but pointing out how amazing his record is I guess, and how much you could make without risk if you took wider view and ground out day after day, instead of 10 units, it's hard enough to pick winners let alone weight them
Click to expand...
That's the thing though...some successful people completely base their wagers on chasing, you have to weight obviously
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Not disparaging dude but pointing out how amazing his record is I guess, and how much you could make without risk if you took wider view and ground out day after day, instead of 10 units, it's hard enough to pick winners let alone weight them
Click to expand...

I’ve never had any success whatsoever trying to weight them myself. In fact it always been a freaking nightmare and my bigger plays were hitting at like half the rate of a normal play! Lol.., I’m ok with going between a half and full unit but almost never stray from that plan, for me there either value on a team or there isn’t.
 
Also I'm not one who makes power rankings or lines but I'd imagine if I was I'd weigh a variance of 10 pts in basketball a bit differently than a variance of 5
 
KJ said:
That's the thing though...some successful people completely base their wagers on chasing, you have to weight obviously
Click to expand...

Chase like Cisco style (methodical systems) or chasing losses with scared picks.

If I knew of dudes that were successful like Berry I would move one of my brothers to Reno like tomorrow. . .
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Chase like Cisco style (methodical systems) or chasing losses with scared picks.

If I knew of dudes that were successful like Berry I would move one of my brothers to Reno like tomorrow. . .
Click to expand...
No chase like Cisco...for instance, if I like under in CBB I prefer to chase by half hoping to win the 1st, avoid fouling, OT. That said if it doesn't hit, I'm not shying away from the 2h if I like it that much.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

VirginiaCavs
Sunday Four Picks Preview Article
Replies
3
Views
292
2daBank
2daBank
VirginiaCavs
Tuesday Pitcher Props Preview Article
Replies
0
Views
166
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
Sunday Four Picks Preview Article
Replies
2
Views
240
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
Sunday Four Picks Preview Article
Replies
0
Views
203
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
Wiretowire
MLB Monday 7/29
Replies
11
Views
176
2daBank
2daBank
Back
Top