bee172
Pretty much a regular
Damn you fast!
Sunday July 29 discussion: is Freddy Krueger coming for the favorites again?
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Thanks Pick. Thats great info. Flat bet this guy and you will make bank
bee172
Pretty much a regular
Lol.. I had to look this up..
ob·fus·cate
ˈäbfəˌskāt/
verb
ob·fus·cate
ˈäbfəˌskāt/
verb
- render obscure, unclear, or unintelligible
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
its a good word.
id rather see 166-137 48.5 units or something, instead of him going heavy on some and changing the weight of everything
id rather see 166-137 48.5 units or something, instead of him going heavy on some and changing the weight of everything
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
IMO thats a losing strategy. Might work for this tout, this year, but you keep your own list and tell me how many times you win/lose when you go heavier cause you are feeling it, dont worry I know the answer. You flat bet cause you know in the long run you going to win, you dont change the weight because what happens if you lose
bee172
Pretty much a regular
Learned me a big fancy word today, thanks!
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Im always looking out Bee
Pretty sure he has the units posted on that spread sheet. Shows all his wins/losses etc
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
dude's not a tout, people trying to tip him and he said he didn't want tips, just donate to charity and he listed a fewView attachment 33848
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Jesus Johnny you‘re trying to find every negative angle about this guy who you don‘t know and whose system you haven‘t found out about. Just chill and play what you wanna play lol
Btw its always worth mentioning that GameHunter is a great follow 
After last year being up like 80 units at asb, i forget where he was at at end of season but i guess he had to come down to earth a bit
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Not sure at all what you are talking about, but let me make it simple for yall.
Regarding baseball or even crimsonk for that matter. Let's say you bet with real money, say 1K a game. If you knew Berry was going to grind out that type of win percentage, and could see that come October you would be up 65k, you would be wrong to bet $5k on the Twins today.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Well using that if he's up over 500 units (I'm not looking) he would be up 500k+ so 5k would be a drop in the bucket
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
I'm not saying he's a tout. Maybe he is vain, maybe a narcissist, who knows, but save that multi unit bullshit tout leverage nonsense, can we just say he's up 50 units or do you fanboys need to jizz on the 500 unit fantasy?
I like how you say you need to make it simple for us but don‘t comprehend my point at all
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Is your point that there is good info there so stop pointing out 5 units on the twins? I get it. Go big or go home.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I dunno, crazy they couldn’t muster any runs yesterday off a guy who had been allowing such a high hard contact rate and in that park.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
KJ, I'm not saying the way you wager is wrong. What I am saying is that this guy is looks solid. So play it safe, up your unit size, keep it consistent, dont risk the money train. How happy would you be up 65 k, knowing that you ain't never giving it back? Keep grinding, keep upping unit size, but be consistent is all, it's hard to do when you dont respect your unit amount.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Plus it's not like dude is member, haha, whatever man
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
It's relative tho, If you're up 65k, 1k wasn't your unit size...it's all percentages and most of his wagers were several units anyway. Again, I'm not following some system, but good on him
Not worth derailing the thread and insulting all of us lol
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Take your issues somewhere else please. MLB discussion today.
Came in here to provide a little clarification, boys...
The guy you’re talking about is a twitter poster named Berryhorse.
1. He is NOT a tout. He posts all of his picks for free on his Tweeter Page.
2. His system and the expected value for the bet fluctuation sizes comes from his model, which takes into account like 600 factors.
Basically he values each player IN THE STARTING LINEUP at they are valued in comparison to historical trends dating back to comparable players at the same time age etc over the last 50-60 years. If the starting lineup changes, the bet valuation could change.
3. He only bets games (at least from the Podcast I heard him talk on) once he gets to the 5% or greater expected run valuation based on the SP going against the lineup for that day.
He is 100% a math geek. But his model in essence takes expected runs and the valuation of the SP’s to create a line he compares to the Pinny line. If he sees the edge based on his numbers he bets what his model tells him to bet.
4. I’ve never followed one thing the guy has done (tailing I mean), but this dude is straight up the exact opposite of a tout. He gives free information based on a super nerdy model he designed and shares it on Twitter. The spreadsheet is just to document everything.
Finally, I’ve seen tweets of people wanting to pay him as recently as This week and he has told them to donate the money to charitable causes.
Like I said, just here to clarify, but in this hobby we all have, a good dude with NO bad scummy tout intentions deserves to have the facts laid out about what he’s doing.
Hope this sheds a little Light on the guy, gentlemen.
The guy you’re talking about is a twitter poster named Berryhorse.
1. He is NOT a tout. He posts all of his picks for free on his Tweeter Page.
2. His system and the expected value for the bet fluctuation sizes comes from his model, which takes into account like 600 factors.
Basically he values each player IN THE STARTING LINEUP at they are valued in comparison to historical trends dating back to comparable players at the same time age etc over the last 50-60 years. If the starting lineup changes, the bet valuation could change.
3. He only bets games (at least from the Podcast I heard him talk on) once he gets to the 5% or greater expected run valuation based on the SP going against the lineup for that day.
He is 100% a math geek. But his model in essence takes expected runs and the valuation of the SP’s to create a line he compares to the Pinny line. If he sees the edge based on his numbers he bets what his model tells him to bet.
4. I’ve never followed one thing the guy has done (tailing I mean), but this dude is straight up the exact opposite of a tout. He gives free information based on a super nerdy model he designed and shares it on Twitter. The spreadsheet is just to document everything.
Finally, I’ve seen tweets of people wanting to pay him as recently as This week and he has told them to donate the money to charitable causes.
Like I said, just here to clarify, but in this hobby we all have, a good dude with NO bad scummy tout intentions deserves to have the facts laid out about what he’s doing.
Hope this sheds a little Light on the guy, gentlemen.
Phillies hard to like as playoff team when they keep stinking it up on the road. Reds also a much better team than before though
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Not disparaging dude but pointing out how amazing his record is I guess, and how much you could make without risk if you took wider view and ground out day after day, instead of 10 units, it's hard enough to pick winners let alone weight them
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Looking pretty hard at the over in that one (havnt checked out ump yet). Really tough to see Gant sustaining success with how poor his k/bb ratio been the last 2 months (damn near even) and a 46% hard contact rate to go along with it! He navigated his way thru 5 scoreless last weekend in Chicago but just don’t see that happening again.
Hendricks has pitched 10 innings vs us this year and allowed 6 runs, I don’t think the offensive uptick is flukey at all considering how good our obp has been and the good exit velo’s of the guys we need to have driving in runs. Maybe little bothersome that it was only 1 inning yesterday than nothing after, game 1 they had 12 hits thru 5 off starter than not one off the scrubbies pen. Possible 1st 5 instead of game? Kinda think our pen could become a strength with the youngsters replacing all the overpaid bums.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
That's the thing though...some successful people completely base their wagers on chasing, you have to weight obviously
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
No drama here, VC just needs to get laid, 5x
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’ve never had any success whatsoever trying to weight them myself. In fact it always been a freaking nightmare and my bigger plays were hitting at like half the rate of a normal play! Lol.., I’m ok with going between a half and full unit but almost never stray from that plan, for me there either value on a team or there isn’t.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
VC my guy but there Never been a truer statement on this board!! Lol.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
For the record I love VC and I can be such a dick.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think we all can!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
No chase like Cisco...for instance, if I like under in CBB I prefer to chase by half hoping to win the 1st, avoid fouling, OT. That said if it doesn't hit, I'm not shying away from the 2h if I like it that much.
