Sunday July 29 discussion: is Freddy Krueger coming for the favorites again?

Was the A's epic run a flash in the pan? Awful offense @ Coors last two nights. Scoring 2 runs total over 18 frames. Scoring 0 in 16 of them.

Hits seem to be there, though.
 
Texas been monumentally more lucrative for runs than Coors this year

Almost like a letdown to go to Denver ffs...will bet em to score again tomorrow, need to look at the schedule but if they go back to OAK it should be a break out game before going home I believe
 
Not sure if A’s win tomorrow but they go home and play Toronto which is defo a winnable series.

A’s still got themselves closer to Seattle than most other teams in the AL. Seattle and their pisspoor run differential should give other teams a chance to catch up. Seattle -6 run differential for the year and 3-7 L10. They’ve lost twice already to the Halos who’s still inching to get themselves back into the wildcard race.
 
NL wildcard race is going to be nuts.

On top of that, every division in NL is up for grabs heading into August.

Fire in the hole!
 
bee172 said:
Not sure if A’s win tomorrow but they go home and play Toronto which is defo a winnable series.

A’s still got themselves closer to Seattle than most other teams in the AL. Seattle and their pisspoor run differential should give other teams a chance to catch up. Seattle -6 run differential for the year and 3-7 L10. They’ve lost twice already to the Halos who’s still inching to get themselves back into the wildcard race.
Click to expand...
Just like the angle of the WC teams that play in caverns getting one last chance to put up numbers before going home to parks that don't typically yield many runs...this certainly fits.

I firmly expect Seattle to make a play on Harvey at this point, I'm sold if I'm a M's fan.
 
Twins for game, I'm fairly convinced Fernando Rodney is bipolar and might strike out the side in the 9th if given a save opportunity
 
cle has lost 3 of 5 while being favored in all by 170 or more

indians.gif
 
Here's a math model some guy came up with and supposedly up 500+ units on the year. I been monitoring if for only a few days but it's been doing very well. It seems pretty high level statistics to me compared to my weak model so if anyone want to take a look...HERE
 
mrpickem said:
Here's a math model some guy came up with and supposedly up 500+ units on the year. I been monitoring if for only a few days but it's been doing very well. It seems pretty high level statistics to me compared to my weak model so if anyone want to take a look...HERE
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Damn... +500?!?! How do we know what are the plays? On my phone so it’s rather difficult to scroll
 
bee172 said:
Damn... +500?!?! How do we know what are the plays? On my phone so it’s rather difficult to scroll
Click to expand...

It's a huge sheet, you have to scroll to bottom and then all the way right. Final selections not in until lineups are released. It's really near impossible to navigate on a phone, need laptop or at least a table

only play indicated so far today is fade minny..edit> actually no plays in early games as min reduced to -4.98% value after lineups. when number is negative it's fade and positive is play on

his record allegedly
View attachment 33844
 
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mrpickem said:
Here's a math model some guy came up with and supposedly up 500+ units on the year. I been monitoring if for only a few days but it's been doing very well. It seems pretty high level statistics to me compared to my weak model so if anyone want to take a look...HERE
Click to expand...
Just took a look at that huge stats sheet, so at the bottom right, are those supposed to be the teams with the best percentages to win today? Am I reading that right?
 
T-Rex said:
Just took a look at that huge stats sheet, so at the bottom right, are those supposed to be the teams with the best percentages to win today? Am I reading that right?
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yes, once lineups are in the selections are highlighted in that botton right area if over 5% value over line
 
Just looking at it I saw some plays on when it's positive in the upper 2s, 3s and 4s too

Ugh systems, never understand em
 
KJ said:
Just looking at it I saw some plays on when it's positive in the upper 2s, 3s and 4s too

Ugh systems, never understand em
Click to expand...

no, all plays are all over 5% all games are listed but only highlighted ones are plays

yeah, its cumbersome at best...but it it gives winners :breakdance:
 
He attached a key, positives and negatives rep home and away team, greater than 5% either way indicates a play
 
He basically lists the team there though that the numbers favor, so he makes it even easier to follow
 
From what I can tell, no real games or plays indicated by that stat table today. Nothing popping up as over 5%. Wow, haha. Figures the one day we are all checking it out
 
Can‘t resist Cards as dog, who cares if Cubs trying to avoid sweep, don‘t tell me Cards don‘t wanna embarrass rival at home!
 
How can you tail a person that changes his units on every bet? I dont get it. 5 units here, 10 units there. Whats his record if he flat bet?
 
Think the Pads win today, hate betting against my team but likely to do it in some fashion, team total looks ok

Just not sure Clay can keep it up, series is in the bag, over ump in Marquez
 
KJ said:
Wait a second here
Click to expand...
Johnnyonthespot said:
How can you tail a person that changes his units on every bet? I dont get it. 5 units here, 10 units there. Whats his record if he flat bet?
Click to expand...
He is just posting units, I don’t get the confusion? More units on games that he is more confident in or that are more indicated based on his numbers. I mean, I bet bigger on games I like more, that only makes sense to me
 
it's all based on value vs line

I've built a model that assigns a probability for an MLB team winning a game given their starting pitcher and lineup, and their opponents'. This spreadsheet, my posts on the daily MLB reddit threads, and my twitter account @berryhorse29 are used to help share this with the public. Every recorded bet and record are the results for betting on teams my model gives an over 5% edge to in comparison to the implied probability of the line at Pinnacle. I don't at all claim for this to be optimal - I welcome anyone to come up with subsystems for improving this. Just because I tweet something out does not mean it has over 5% edge at YOUR sportsbooks, and just because I don't tweet something out doesn't mean you don't have over 5% value at YOUR sportsbooks. It also doesn't mean I bet everything on here myself. There's all kinds of ways to improve your returns. This isn't my full-time job. Please don't rely on me to tweet out every time there is a 5% disagreement. I've done my best and have covered ~99% of the fits, but it's possible I'll be busy and miss some.
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A person up 500 units is straight sensationalism.

What is his actual record of picks. If each pick was a unit? Pretty Yag to tout and say all of these are 1 unit plays but the yankees are a 20 unit play and the Twins, make it 5 units. Its arbitrary and deliberately trying to obfuscate skills.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
A person up 500 units is straight sensationalism.

What is his actual record of picks. If each pick was a unit? Pretty Yag to tout and say all of these are unit plays but the yankees are a 20 unit play and the Twins, make it 5 units. Its arbitrary and deliberately trying to obfuscate skills.
Click to expand...

166-137 mostly dogs
 
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