Sunday Hoops with Handy

handy

Pretty much a regular
Hi there,

Welcome to Sunday Hoops with Handy. Well I haven't done much posting of late but today I got the urge to put some thoughts down on paper.

First off lets talk about the Heat and the Spurs. You know I'm not sure anyone is too sure just how good the Heat or Spurs are going to be come playoff time but I definately wouldn't lay points with SA at Miami today. C'mon doesn't that just look too easy? Plus, Miami will have the best player on the floor in Dwayne Wade. Now that's not a shot at Tim Duncan but Wade is just playing unbelievable basketball and the Heat are at home coming off a bad loss. I don't believe the oddsmakers could've posted a more fair line than a pick em or -1 on either side. That's probably what this game is going to look like. I find it quite interesting but not surprising to read so many people posting the Spurs as their so called easy win of the day. Remember a few weeks back when the Mavs stormed into Miami as 6 pt. faves and had to hold on for dear life at the end? That game the Heat were without Shaq. If I bet this game I'm taking the Heat at home plus 1.5 but I'm certainly going to tread lightly. I think this game is going to drive a bettor crazy.

Lakers at Cavaliers - Talk about another tough game to forecast a winner let alone covering a point spread winner. It's a well known fact that the last game of a long road trip often results in a mail it in effort for the road team but I simply don't expect that today. The one thing the Cavaliers have proven all season is you just never know when they're going to show up and play well. It was just the other night when the whole world was betting against them and they blow out the Heat. You know I didn't bet that game but the result came as no surprise to me. I was thinking back to last week when the Cavs more or less handled the Heat in Miami only to hand the Heat the game in the closing minutes. The Cavs were up 12 to start the fourth qtr. last Thursday night in Miami and found a way to collapse in the 4th. I believe the Lakers come to play today are they're desperate for another big win on the road after losing their last two. Come to think of it they really haven't played very well on this road trip and since Odom has returned you can make the case that they played better without him.

All right I have to admit Friday night I was a sucker who bought the Celtics +4 over the Nets. Thinking the return of Pierce coupled with the fact the Nets could barely beat anyone I simply thought the C's were for once live to win a game. Well they never had the lead. This was one of the worse games I've watched in recent history. I will not place another nickel on this Celtics team as I believe their intentions are to lose games in any way shape or form. You know it's one thing to bet them on the road catching 10 points and hoping their opponent doesn't run them out of the gym all night but to take them at home getting 4 is a bad bet. The Celtics aren't about winning and neither are the Memphis Grizzlies. With that being said the Celtics probably cover 9 points today at Minnesota. Have fun with that. This team is pathetic. As some one who clearly remembers the NBA of the 80's with Boston and LA I can't believe this is what the Boston Celtics have become. If you had told me in 1986 that the would be their last Championship for at least the next 25 years I would've said you're crazy. They will be lucky to have a shot to win a championship in 2011.

Seattle at Sacramento - Try this on for size. The Kings go on the road last night and just wipe out the Sonics and now they're only laying 5.5/6 on their home floor? Yeah, the line is right and you can be sure of one thing. Bettors are going to be plopping their money back down on the Kings tonight. I expect the Sonics to show up in a big way and compete in this game. Yes, the Kings are playing better but seriously this team isn't worth laying points with. Their defense is suspect and they're playing without Brad Miller in the middle. Is it a safe bet on the Sonics? No way but it might be worth a shot.

Portland at Washington - Well I guess buyer beware with the Wizards but what would it take to confidentally buy the Blazers on the road at +7? I say nothing. Despite Washington being without their center and Jamison I still wouldn't take Portland.

Chicago at Phoenix - Here we have another team on the last leg of an extended road trip playing one of the top teams in the league. Well Nash or no Nash the Bulls are simply a bad bet on the road. I've been saying this all year and I will say it again the Bulls aren't a very good team. Yes, they're capable of beating anyone as they've proven with quality home wins vs. Dallas and San Antonio but the bottom line is they're just another average NBA team with a lot of hype. Would you really be surprised if they lose in the first round of the playoffs again? I know I wouldn't simply because they can't win on the road. All that needs to happen is for them to lose a home playoff game and they're in big trouble especially if they're playing an experienced team. I think you're going to see a relatively short number on this game if Nash is out but I wouldn't take Chicago if you gave me +110 instead of -110.

Well Dallas should beat the Sixers. They can probably name the margin of victory so I wouldn't take the points in this game.

Another game I would say buyer beware is the battered and bruised Golden State Warriors. I believe they lost Bietris to a sprained ankle for tonights game along with Baron Davis being out. Nellie said last week he has no confidence in Sarunas Jasekevic( what ever the fuck his name is) running the point. I had the Warriors Friday night at pick em over the Bulls and I can tell you this Golden State team has no direction without Baron Davis on the floor. Something else to think about is the Hawks play Monday night in Utah which will be their third game in four nights on the road. One would have to expect if the Hawks are going to grab one of their next two games it would likely be tonight because Utah will be a tall task to say the least. I believe the Jazz are a very good team and are a serious threat out West to get to the Western Conference Finals. Now I'm not going to bet on that happening but this is a team which can beat Phoenix, San Antonio, Denver, Houston and the Clippers. I have no doubt in my mind the Phoenix Suns do not make the Western Conference Finals playing their no D basketball in the post season. When you look at the West I believe the Suns are going to have their hands full vs. the slow it down walk it up type of teams like the Jazz, Rockets and Spurs. Yeah, the Spurs are puzzling right now but they're probably one big sleeping Giant come playoff time.

I don't know about you but the Detroit Pistons are really starting to impress me. You know I'm beginning to think they're a very serious championship contender and if you can get your hands on this team at long enough odds you're going to make some money with a futures ticket on them. Now I already own the Heat to win the East and that is certainly no slam dunk but as long as Miami gets in the playoffs I believe they're in the East Finals unless they have to face the Pistons in round 2 which could happen. Think about this for a minute if you can get the Pistons at lets say anywhere between 12 and 15:1 to win the Championship you have to think you're making a good bet. Cleveland and Chicago aren't likely to beat this team and if Detroit simply makes the Eastern Conference finals many of the online books post odds on the final four to not win it all. This is what I did last year as I had the Pistons at 4:1 to win it all and I simply bet them not to win it all once I realized they likely weren't going all the way. Just something to think about but the more I think about it the more I believe the Pistons could win the NBA Championship. Lets not forget they've already handled Dallas in Dallas this year and we both know they can defend and beat the Suns and Spurs.

College Hoops has a couple of interesting betting opportunities for Sunday afternoon and early evening depending on where you live.

First off I believe the BC Eagles are primed to get their ass kicked today. They have two big games coming up this week at home vs. Duke and UNC. I don't know about you but I don't see BC winning either of these home games. I know Duke is having a down year but for what ever reason the BC program always finds ways to lose the big games whether it be in football or basketball. I don't expect anything will change and I believe a three game losing streak will begin today at Florida State. The Seminoles are very tough to beat at home and we also likely have a case of BC looking forward to their next two big games vs. Duke and UNC. I'm guessing we also will have a public underdog with the Eagles today.

Second, Duke at Maryland. Well if you haven't seen much of Duke play this year in conference play it's about time you check them out at no charge before throwing any money at them. They're not very good and in my opinion the line is way too short on Maryland at home today. Yeah, I know the word Duke simply scares a lot of folks but it shouldn't. They could easily lose their next two games at Maryland and at BC but as I said earlier I expect the Blue Devils to win at BC simply because BC finds ways to lose to inferior talent. The other night at had the Blue Devils +4.5 even money and I thought I made a good bet. Well I did for 35 minutes and then it became a nightmare. Duke is having a hard time simply winning at home and they're laying lofty spreads which really aren't warranted. I think back at some of the chalk which they failed to cover at home this year and I can't stop but think how much lower the line would be if they were playing that same game today. I knew back in December when Marquette beat them that this team wasn't the same old Duke team.

Anyways, one more game which interests me but not from a betting perspective is G Tech and Uconn. The Huskies are just young and awful. However, G Tech on the road away from their home gym have been nothing short of a coin toss. I wouldn't take or lay points in this game but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Calhoun gets a big effort out of his team on National TV and somehow keeps it close.

Another game which I don't know anything about is UMASS and Temple but I can tell you that it's a big public bet on the underdog minuteman. Yeah, it most certainly looks too easy to most so I would simply say buyer beware with UMASS.

I don't know about you but I find college basketball hard to watch. This year is just seems to be worse than in the past. Maybe it's me but I have such an appreciation for the pro game after watching these morons at the collegiate level fuck up one thing after another. These kids can simply drive you crazy because most of them have little understanding of the time, score, and shot clock situation. A lot of it has to do with poor coaching as I simply can't understand how Rick Barnes team lets nearly 10 seconds run off the clock last week before they decide to foul. To make matters worse they weren't even out of fouls so they had to foul again just to get the other team into the 1 and 1. That's just brain dead coaching and you simply don't get that at the pro level on even the worse teams.

Well good luck today and I believe my first bet is going to be on the Heat plus what ever points I can get for a very small amount. I'm going to be careful but I think the score swings back and forth throughout.

Good luck and as always life is dandy being a capper named Handy!!!
 
Excellent write-up.

I am getting down on either Maryland or Sonics ATS (but, man, Luke Ridnour is a bozo). For some reason, Sacramento just exploits the hell out of all his weaknesses, of which there are many. The Sonics ATS is basically a fade the public kind of thing, as every yahoo on the planet will eagerly lay these points after last night's affair. It's just a blind endorsement of Vegas.

And the yahoos won't be able to resist Duke getting 1.5 at Maryland, and Maryland will win by 7-8ish to screw all the public teasers tied to Duke.
 
Handy, I agree with that Miami game. I was looking at that one also and it threw a red flag up at me. I think the books are counting on the Spurs catching most of the money too and Miami coming off a bad loss as you said should be primed up for this one. Im placing a small wager on Miami just for giggles. Good write up. Good luck bud.
 
You can be sure the books knew prior to releasing this line that they would need Miami in this game. This is just the classic case of the linemakers believing they're smarter than most everyone else. Remember Vegas has deep pockets and win or lose they're not going out of business. I think back to all the so called layup looking games for the Spurs and you know what I can't give you one game which was.

They were -3 at the Lakers a couple weeks ago. They should've lost that game.
They've been favored twice at Utah this year and lost both games. In fact they were -5 at Utah a couple weeks ago. That's how fucked up the lines are because the Jazz are better than the Heat.

I belive the oddsmakers truly believe this game is a coin toss and it probably is. It's likely a bettors headache which is why if I play it I'm going very small. How anyone thinks this game is a layup on the road is beyond me. San Antonio blew a 16 point lead the other night at Orlando.
 
Weren't Spurs like a 10ish fave at Charlotte this year, and every yahoo was hyping them in that game?

And then didn't Bobcats beat them outright? Hahahahahahaha

I hate betting Spurs' games....for or against. But, no player period is as good and clutch as Dwayne Wade.
 
You can be sure the books knew prior to releasing this line that they would need Miami in this game. This is just the classic case of the linemakers believing they're smarter than most everyone else. Remember Vegas has deep pockets and win or lose they're not going out of business. I think back to all the so called layup looking games for the Spurs and you know what I can't give you one game which was.

They were -3 at the Lakers a couple weeks ago. They should've lost that game.
They've been favored twice at Utah this year and lost both games. In fact they were -5 at Utah a couple weeks ago. That's how fucked up the lines are because the Jazz are better than the Heat.

I belive the oddsmakers truly believe this game is a coin toss and it probably is. It's likely a bettors headache which is why if I play it I'm going very small. How anyone thinks this game is a layup on the road is beyond me. San Antonio blew a 16 point lead the other night at Orlando.
San Antonio had a layup on wednesday @ Washingston with line opened at -3.5
 
but you are right i dont remember the spurs covering in any big games this year besides in early Jan when they beat Dallas (who started off 0-4) PHX (who started the year off slow too) and Miami (without shaq) besides that this team has been awful
 
They weren't a big public bet the other night at Washington. There were a lot of people posting the Wizards in that game. Funny thing is when SA loses two in a row they're a very dangerous team to bet against. SA can beat any team in this league at any time and especially the ones which don't play D.
 
They weren't a big public bet the other night at Washington. There were a lot of people posting the Wizards in that game. Funny thing is when SA loses two in a row they're a very dangerous team to bet against. SA can beat any team in this league at any time and especially the ones which don't play D.
yeah i went big on SA that game i dont understand why anyone would be on Washington in that spot

how many are on SA today?

also about youre seattle thoughts the over in that game should be a decent bet the sonics didnt even come out to play last night and the game still hit 207 total
 
gl. Think sonics might be worth a look. Afterall, Kings players are the types who shows up one onight, and xcompletely disappears the next.
 
Nice Writeups handy its always good to hear your thoughts, truly a student of the game...Like the angles you look at...Mostly situational..I think the Champs get it done at home....
 
Handy,
glad to see you today. Miss seeing ya every day because your thoughts are always educational IMO. I like the champs today and i am a Spurs fan. Also like the revenge for the Sonics today. In CBB, Duke is not very good this year and I thin k Maryland takes care of them today.
 
Handy,

Love to read your thoughts on the games.............
Sure wish you would show up more regularily. We don't want life to be dandy on so few days :cheers:
 
Good work. The only part I cant understand is you basically say be cautious of everything. Which is okay but your not backing much if anything. Alot of work for that. I would love FSU if Douglas didnt get hurt last game....Good Luck inwhat you choose...
 
Sportsnut,

I now just post once in a while to talk sports. I'm not too interested in giving out my picks etc. I believe it's all about "Tail and fail" because you can't possibly know everything I bet and the amounts etc. My threads are all about wagering, odds, opinions etc. It is what it is and that's all that it is. You can more or less figure out the games which I'm strongly considering from the way I write.

good luck
 
Sorry if it sounded like a knock. It wasnt meant to me. I do you read your threads when you post cause they are solid. Even popped in and out of Covers to see what you stirring up. I just meant it was alot of work(here) and didnt seem like you were interested in playing anything. I agree with ya I do my best to not advocate people making certian plays. Unless I think that something is a miss. I think tailing is harding then capping.

Good Luck..(nice job if you went Miami)
 
wade shuts up cuban with his great 4th q he didnt even attempt to drive to the basket once all jump shots and all this with shaq sitting on the bench

wade dont need fts :smiley_acbe:

:bow:wizzlie
 
had Kings last night...Sonics +5 tonight...lets cash this ticket...:shake:
 
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