Some issues I have with some of the posted plays here

[Helmut]

First of all bookmaker probably has 1000's of players waiting Sunday night to fire at these opening numbers. At this early stage of the season some of these numbers are going to be very volatile and we are likely to see moves of 3 points or more within minutes. I see a ton of people posting plays here with numbers that are long gone. I do not get what the purpose of making posts is other than to pad a W/L record. For example Penn State was -13 at 6:01 and -14.5 at 6:07 so why even post a play of Penn State -13 at 6:10?

I believe we should all use this forum as a means to share information and help each other win. However it appears to be a mad dash to post plays with the weak openers. Can we not wait 30 minutes for the lines to stabilize? Then use those numbers on our posted plays? or heaven forbid actually check the current line before posting our plays?

 

[Joe Public]

Some of it I can explain a little, even though I pretty much never do it.

There are guys who lock in their plays right on the open, I know this because I've talked to them right before and after and sometimes I'm lucky enough to get there with 'em.

So the posting of that play is two things, not so much an announcement of 'hey, take this team this week,' but rather, 'this is the number I got, this is what I would take them at.'

This means the discussion is different about that particular game with that particular person.

To use your example, if Carolina posted PSU at -13, which he could easily do because he's a big opening number guy, and I didn't see his post until today, my question to him wouldn't so much be 'why do you like PSU,' but rather, 'do you still like 'em at 14.5?'

Because you don't typically play an opening number if you don't already have a strong feeling on the game, so the conversation is different.

That's my thought anyway.

 

[RSMS9999]

I do not see any problem with posting the lines that you wager at in your picks for the week. For many people, the difference of a line movement of a couple points is the difference between a play and a no play. If you catch a good line at the opening and bet accordingly, then you have every right to make that your posted play.

As for the "trust" issue, in the end it does not really matter whether people are lying about what line they got, how much they bet or if they even made the bet at all. Just live with the honor system because it works fine for me. Who really cares if someone feels the need to post phony numbers, it only affects their money and profits, not anyone elses.

Getting the best number is a crucial part of this thing, and to somehow "ban" people from posting plays if they get one is stupid.

 

[Dmoney416]

First of all bookmaker probably has 1000's of players waiting Sunday night to fire at these opening numbers. At this early stage of the season some of these numbers are going to be very volatile and we are likely to see moves of 3 points or more within minutes. I see a ton of people posting plays here with numbers that are long gone. I do not get what the purpose of making posts is other than to pad a W/L record. For example Penn State was -13 at 6:01 and -14.5 at 6:07 so why even post a play of Penn State -13 at 6:10?

I believe we should all use this forum as a means to share information and help each other win. However it appears to be a mad dash to post plays with the weak openers. Can we not wait 30 minutes for the lines to stabilize? Then use those numbers on our posted plays? or heaven forbid actually check the current line before posting our plays?

Are you suggesting that we are lying when posters post plays with the better numbers? Or that we should only post what the current number is?

As for the italicized statement above, I think that this forum is by far the best means to share info on the internet. I have yet to see another forum that is even close to this in terms of quantity and quality of information. I don't see how posting when you have a slightly better number discourages that.

For example, I have California -11, but you want me to post Cal -13 (or whatever the current number is?). Obviously, I still support a play at 13 since 12 is basically a dead number. However, what if it was -16 now? Would you want someone to post that when maybe I no longer support a play at that number?

Getting these lines is just as important to me as the info that accompanies them. I consider myself an average handicapper, so the lines is where I try to make up for it.

If you don't believe some of these posts, I'd be glad to post the bet ticket for each game I make. While its not really "proof," it is the best I can do off the top of my head.

 

[brewer]

I got penn st at -9 bro

 

[Marlo]

First of all bookmaker probably has 1000's of players waiting Sunday night to fire at these opening numbers. At this early stage of the season some of these numbers are going to be very volatile and we are likely to see moves of 3 points or more within minutes. I see a ton of people posting plays here with numbers that are long gone. I do not get what the purpose of making posts is other than to pad a W/L record. For example Penn State was -13 at 6:01 and -14.5 at 6:07 so why even post a play of Penn State -13 at 6:10?

I believe we should all use this forum as a means to share information and help each other win. However it appears to be a mad dash to post plays with the weak openers. Can we not wait 30 minutes for the lines to stabilize? Then use those numbers on our posted plays? or heaven forbid actually check the current line before posting our plays?

Helmut how can you have a problem with this. Look at the CBB totals you get, that 90% of us can't

 

[Joe Public]

I got penn st at -9, supbro

Fixed it for you.

 

[cogenman]

Just post the line for whatever you got, simple as that. Early bird gets the worm. There are alot of great posters here who can sense a bad line and which way it's going to go.

This site and its posters have alot of integrity. But say someone does post a fake line then loses, it's their loss because even if they count it as a win, their pockets won't be any fatter.

 

[Ray]

This is not tipsters forum anyway. This is only a capping forum where people share their picks/knowledges and such. :whip:

 

[jimbof20]

Helmut how can you have a problem with this. Look at the CBB totals you get, that 90% of us can't

:shake:

 

[Starbuck]

First of all bookmaker probably has 1000's of players waiting Sunday night to fire at these opening numbers. At this early stage of the season some of these numbers are going to be very volatile and we are likely to see moves of 3 points or more within minutes. I see a ton of people posting plays here with numbers that are long gone. I do not get what the purpose of making posts is other than to pad a W/L record. For example Penn State was -13 at 6:01 and -14.5 at 6:07 so why even post a play of Penn State -13 at 6:10?

I believe we should all use this forum as a means to share information and help each other win. However it appears to be a mad dash to post plays with the weak openers. Can we not wait 30 minutes for the lines to stabilize? Then use those numbers on our posted plays? or heaven forbid actually check the current line before posting our plays?

Haha Helmut this happens all the time. We know about 5% of the people here actually get the opening line. Half of these guys do not get the actual opening line, they just post it cause they think it has a good shot of cashing.

 

[Marlo]

Haha Helmut this happens all the time. We know about 5% of the people here actually get the opening line. Half of these guys do not get the actual opening line, they just post it cause they think it has a good shot of cashing.

Pretty bold statement? And why are you here?

 

[counselor]

Whoa

 

[hoopsstar22]

Helmut how can you have a problem with this. Look at the CBB totals you get, that 90% of us can't

You are incorrect with this statement Marlo.

I will vogue for Helmut as he gets a better number than what he posts about 99% of the time. He then posts the WA# at the time of his posting if he still believes it is a good bet, as there are numerous plays he has that he doesn't post because the line he played has moved significantly from the WA# at the time.

You also must take into account the volatility of the NCAA hoops totals market, and the order of the forums he posts at. He doesn't post at covers, or ctg first, I will tell you that. 10 $500 bets can be placed within 30 seconds of his post, easy. $5k will certainly start moving the line. If you're not right there upon his release, you will never see his line. And then 10 minutes after his post, yes, the line has moved 3 full points on average.

 

[Starbuck]

Pretty bold statement? And why are you here?

What?

:36_11_6:

 

[Helmut]

Helmut how can you have a problem with this. Look at the CBB totals you get, that 90% of us can't

I always check the current number before I post and use that and always will, it's just the way I roll. Did you ever see me at anytime last season post one play withing ten minutes of bookmakers basketball releases? You can go through any post I have ever mad and compare it to the line history and confirm this. I am a firm believer that WA numbers should be used.

I'm not saying that anybody here is lying about what they played. Many of you are very talented cappers and can easily recognize a weak line.

 

[RetroVK]

The site is about making money betting sports. Some people on here are smart enough to be prepared when openers hit so that they can nail the games that look like "small mistakes" or "big mistakes" from the linesmakers. This is an important lesson in sports betting as far as i am concerned. The numbers are often more important than the analysis.

I sometimes sit all week waiting for a game to make a half point move at which time it becomes a play .... and if it never does ... i dont play it. Getting the best of the number is important.

Sometimes betting early means getting the worst of it. i bet w mich -6.5 and since then it has moved to -5.5 ... past a key number. But a majority of the time i know value when i see it and bet accordingly. The ability to pick line movement direction is very important in my opinion.

GETTING GOOD NUMBERS IS AS IMPORTANT AS HAVING GOOD CAPPING.

 

[Marlo]

What?

:36_11_6:

If 90% of the people lie here, why come?

 

[Marlo]

I always check the current number before I post and use that and always will, it's just the way I roll. Did you ever see me at anytime last season post one play withing ten minutes of bookmakers basketball releases? You can go through any post I have ever mad and compare it to the line history and confirm this. I am a firm believer that WA numbers should be used.

I'm not saying that anybody here is lying about what they played. Many of you are very talented cappers and can easily recognize a weak line.

No I didn't, but why is it such a problem if they find a weak opener and pound it quick...Its exactly what your doing when your capping totals or anything for that matter.

 

[JPicks]

I think Kyle hit on a important part of playing early lines. Sometimes you may post a # as it opens and it may go the wrong way. I've never seen anybody change their play to reflect the new better line and it's happened to plenty of us.

Last year was my first year playing CFB and I, as a rookie, noticed that people were getting better #'s than me often thru the early part of the year. Eventually I learned what time the BM releases their #'s and I typically don't miss it by more than 20 minutes or so. So rather than complain about others getting better #'s than I was I actually learned how they were getting them and followed their lead.

 

[Mags]

I do not see any problem with posting the lines that you wager at in your picks for the week. For many people, the difference of a line movement of a couple points is the difference between a play and a no play. If you catch a good line at the opening and bet accordingly, then you have every right to make that your posted play.

As for the "trust" issue, in the end it does not really matter whether people are lying about what line they got, how much they bet or if they even made the bet at all. Just live with the honor system because it works fine for me. Who really cares if someone feels the need to post phony numbers, it only affects their money and profits, not anyone elses.

Getting the best number is a crucial part of this thing, and to somehow "ban" people from posting plays if they get one is stupid.

This pretty much says it for me. I mean, I always thought of this site as a means to get a feel for who's playing what game and why. Further more, if you do like a game (use PSU for example) that is a couple points differently from where other people are playing it and you respect their opinion, if you ask them if they still endorse it at the current line I don't know of anyone that won't answer you. If you really have this big a problem with it maybe you should just ignore it or not post. Not trying to be an asshole or start something but I just think that everyone around here is using the honor system and it's working really well IMO. Just my 2 cents on the topic fellas, BOL to all! :cheers:

 

[hoopsstar22]

I will say this about CTG though....

For the average age of the posters here, there is a very insignificant amount of ego stroking that goes on here. For a site consisting of 6500 members, it is simply amazing how cordially everyone acts towards one another.

For the amount of people that post here, it is amazing how the only shit slinging that occurs is in the political discussions in GD. But even that stays under control for the most part.

I give everyone a round of applause for keeping it like that.

 

[Mags]

Example, look at when I locked this game in (date), it's a play, why wouldn't I post it as a play and reflect it on my record (either way)...

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="90%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=middle>Ticket #1328120
Sep-1 4:00:00 PM</TD><TD>INTERNET/-1</TD><TD>Aug-6 8:16:07 AM</TD><TD>
CFB</TD><TD>STRAIGHT BET
[211] FRESNO STATE +6½-110</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Starbuck]

Mods - Please delete my post towards Marlo. I am not going to sit here and bicker about some stupid topic to a no one. I am better than that and I should know better as well.

 

[counselor]

You can delete it yourself, Starbuck...use the "edit" button

 

[Ray]

Your post just really shows how ignorant you are. If you can't figure it out, then I am not even going to waste my time explaining it to you.

Read the post again and maybe you will understand what I said. First off I never mentioned anyone here. The 5% that actually get the opening line is for the entire world gambling. And there are about 5% that are actually lucky enough to get an opening line for a game that moves in a matter of minutes 2-3 points.

Perhaps you should be the one who need to re-read your post.

 

[YesSir]

I got Penn State at a PK

 

[Marlo]

Haha Helmut this happens all the time. We know about 5% of the people here actually get the opening line.
Half of these guys do not get the actual opening line, they just post it cause they think it has a good shot of cashing.

1.) I completely understand who you think those 5% are that get to see the opening line.
2.) 50% of the guys here are liars.

 

[G-Man]

Just post the line for whatever you got, simple as that. Early bird gets the worm. There are alot of great posters here who can sense a bad line and which way it's going to go.

This site and its posters have alot of integrity. But say someone does post a fake line then loses, it's their loss because even if they count it as a win, their pockets won't be any fatter.

Im waiting for Tennessee to get to 8 or 8.5 cause im going to be all over UCLA. (It was at 6.5 earlier) But if it doesnt get there, I'll still be on them. When I post them, really doesnt matter here to anyone?

SO- when I post my plays its because I posted them with the line when I bet them.

 

[Starbuck]

1.) I completely understand who you think those 5% are that get to see the opening line.
2.) 50% of the guys here are liars.

Ok you got it right.

:shake:

 

[Starbuck]

You can delete it yourself, Starbuck...use the "edit" button

Thanks dude....didn't think you could delete your own post here. A lot of places have that option disabled.

:cheers:

 

[Schrute]

I agree. I had Fresno in a ML parlay at +190 earlier in the week. That parlay already lost so it doesn't matter. Well then yesterday I decided to make Fresno ML an individual play and got it at +168, so I posted it at +168. I got burnt on that but it's the number I got.

Usually I don't play opening lines b/c I like to wait for the reduced juice at 5Dimes. I don't post the reduced juice b/t its not worth fooling around with all of the extra math on the forum. However I did make 2 plays yesterday at -110 b/c I was scared of those lines moving past critical numbers.

Anyways, to each their own but the discussion on this forum is unmatched anywhere else on the interwebs

 

[Seabass]

I agree. I had Fresno in a ML parlay at +190 earlier in the week. That parlay already lost so it doesn't matter. Well then yesterday I decided to make Fresno ML an individual play and got it at +168, so I posted it at +168. I got burnt on that but it's the number I got.

Usually I don't play opening lines b/c I like to wait for the reduced juice at 5Dimes. I don't post the reduced juice b/t its not worth fooling around with all of the extra math on the forum. However I did make 2 plays yesterday at -110 b/c I was scared of those lines moving past critical numbers.

Anyways, to each their own but the discussion on this forum is unmatched anywhere else on the interwebs

Besides the point, but I feel like I get better value out of waiting for the reduced juice than I would by playing openers, FWIW.

 

[Schrute]

Besides the point, but I feel like I get better value out of waiting for the reduced juice than I would by playing openers, FWIW.

I completely agree. I went ahead and played Wyoming b/c it had already moved 2 points and I didn't want it getting above 4. Also, I was thrilled to get ND under 21 and didn't think that opportunity would exist later in the week

 

[SportsNut]

My two cents ......

More in line with Helmut 's thinking I guess. I think people fool themselves into the best line theory . Its great to have the best line and we all feel smarter for it but whats the actual amount of games that the difference bewteen opening and close changes the way the game is graded? Is it even 1% over a season ?

At one time I was all about getting ready for the NCAAF openers but now I could care less what happens on Sunday when it all comes out .

His point is why waste time writing a game up and you have say a spread 3 pts diffferent then the current market and you wouldnt play the game in teh same manner as in for teh same amount of dough.

If your taking Col at -11 then whats the difference at -13 ? Same with SoCar on Thursday or Wyoming on Sat . Whatever price you got the wagers were all graded the same .

I am taking that he is saying there should be MORE acknowledgement to the current line and how that impacts your play at the time of posting . I dont think he is saying I dont believe or dont trust anyone . Just whats the point of saying I have Fresno +6 or so when its closerto 3.5 now...if your posting that game or play talk about Fresno at 3.5 not +6 as it serves no purpose .....you can say you have +6 but for imformative purposes saying you have +6 is useless. Also lets be rational and understand 1/2 or 1 point doesnt matter much especially as the lines get higher ......

As for Helmut and basketball totals there is a HUGE difference in what he is talking about . We all check his writeups to see what and why he likes games . Big thing is his POST is actually moving the market . There is nothing he can do about that and not every total moves his way some go against him . So the difference is clear he is moving the market at times where as posters here are posting AFTER the market has moved...

It's not a huge issue but if your looking to making the forum crisper and more clear then I think he has a good point . I guess it boils down to why each indivual posts ....:cheers:

 

[scraps@midnight]

i rarely post but felt the need to chime in here. like jpicks stated earlier in this thread, i took these guys posts as a lesson and began looking at the opening numbers as they do. i see ctg as a teaching ground as well as many other things. understanding the process some more experienced guys go through to get the best number will make me money in the future i'm sure. there is value in posting the process, as well as the numbers, for guys trying to understand all the nuances of this type of investing.

 

[horses]

Actually, its threads like this that caused me to leave the other place and come over here...

 

[YesSir]

'an_horse'

Actually, its threads like this that caused me to leave the other place and come over here...

Agree..Who cares if someone cheats on a line....why does it matter if they post LSU -3 or 4? IF they win, it is their record...does not effect my money

 

[brewer]

You can delete it yourself, Starbuck...use the "edit" button

this made me chuckle ...continue

 

[Dmoney416]

My two cents ......

More in line with Helmut 's thinking I guess. I think people fool themselves into the best line theory . Its great to have the best line and we all feel smarter for it but whats the actual amount of games that the difference bewteen opening and close changes the way the game is graded? Is it even 1% over a season ?

At one time I was all about getting ready for the NCAAF openers but now I could care less what happens on Sunday when it all comes out .

His point is why waste time writing a game up and you have say a spread 3 pts diffferent then the current market and you wouldnt play the game in teh same manner as in for teh same amount of dough.

If your taking Col at -11 then whats the difference at -13 ? Same with SoCar on Thursday or Wyoming on Sat . Whatever price you got the wagers were all graded the same .

I am taking that he is saying there should be MORE acknowledgement to the current line and how that impacts your play at the time of posting . I dont think he is saying I dont believe or dont trust anyone . Just whats the point of saying I have Fresno +6 or so when its closerto 3.5 now...if your posting that game or play talk about Fresno at 3.5 not +6 as it serves no purpose .....you can say you have +6 but for imformative purposes saying you have +6 is useless. Also lets be rational and understand 1/2 or 1 point doesnt matter much especially as the lines get higher ......

As for Helmut and basketball totals there is a HUGE difference in what he is talking about . We all check his writeups to see what and why he likes games . Big thing is his POST is actually moving the market . There is nothing he can do about that and not every total moves his way some go against him . So the difference is clear he is moving the market at times where as posters here are posting AFTER the market has moved...

It's not a huge issue but if your looking to making the forum crisper and more clear then I think he has a good point . I guess it boils down to why each indivual posts ....:cheers:

I think it happened four times to me last year in about of 105 plays (I'd have to go back and check). For someone that was barely over .500 last year, it was pretty significant. I remember one off the top of my head (BC over ND).

It already happened to me once in week 1 as well: ECU/VT under 50.

Also, some of the CBB totals can move 20-30 points early on. I remember Colorado/New Mexico opening in the low 150s last year (because linesmakers didn't account for Colorado's Princeton offense and the arrival of Steve Alford at NM), and it ended up in the 120 area if I recall correctly.

 

[horses]

does not effect my money

Exactly!!!<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[YesSir]

My two cents ......

More in line with Helmut 's thinking I guess. I think people fool themselves into the best line theory . Its great to have the best line and we all feel smarter for it but whats the actual amount of games that the difference bewteen opening and close changes the way the game is graded? Is it even 1% over a season ?

At one time I was all about getting ready for the NCAAF openers but now I could care less what happens on Sunday when it all comes out .

His point is why waste time writing a game up and you have say a spread 3 pts diffferent then the current market and you wouldnt play the game in teh same manner as in for teh same amount of dough.

If your taking Col at -11 then whats the difference at -13 ? Same with SoCar on Thursday or Wyoming on Sat . Whatever price you got the wagers were all graded the same .

I am taking that he is saying there should be MORE acknowledgement to the current line and how that impacts your play at the time of posting . I dont think he is saying I dont believe or dont trust anyone . Just whats the point of saying I have Fresno +6 or so when its closerto 3.5 now...if your posting that game or play talk about Fresno at 3.5 not +6 as it serves no purpose .....you can say you have +6 but for imformative purposes saying you have +6 is useless. Also lets be rational and understand 1/2 or 1 point doesnt matter much especially as the lines get higher ......

As for Helmut and basketball totals there is a HUGE difference in what he is talking about . We all check his writeups to see what and why he likes games . Big thing is his POST is actually moving the market . There is nothing he can do about that and not every total moves his way some go against him . So the difference is clear he is moving the market at times where as posters here are posting AFTER the market has moved...

It's not a huge issue but if your looking to making the forum crisper and more clear then I think he has a good point . I guess it boils down to why each indivual posts ....:cheers:

good points

 

[RJ Esq]

Actually, its threads like this that caused me to leave the other place and come over here...

Yeah, no shit.

Helmut, I can tell you that there are at least 5-10 of us here who are here EVERY Sunday all day and especially right around 6 pm EST when the lines come out. We predict the lines, we give our thoughts, and we create our shopping lists. They are typically posted.

We then take a look at the LVSC openers to see what might be available.

We have Book/Cris to make sure we get the opener because, as VK says, getting the best line is sometimes as good as good capping.

Then we play 'em. And then we post 'em. Like any person, we think of ourselves first and then post them for others (who will most likely get a slightly worse line).

Feel free to hang out on Sunday and pay attention.

 

[hoopsstar22]

Besides the point, but I feel like I get better value out of waiting for the reduced juice than I would by playing openers, FWIW.

I have to disagree with this to an extent.

Saving 5 cents on the dollar, or less, on a number that the market has had a full week to slap around like a 2 cent whore lacks the value that catching a number at its apex.

There are a lot of people out there that know 10x as much about CFB than most here, and the numbers are where they should be come Saturday morning.

 

[Fondybadger]

Pretty bold statement? And why are you here?

Because he's a solid capper with plenty of good info to share. Come on Marlo, you're better than that comment.

 

[Seabass]

I have to disagree with this to an extent.

Saving 5 cents on the dollar, or less, on a number that the market has had a full week to slap around like a 2 cent whore lacks the value that catching a number at its apex.

There are a lot of people out there that know 10x as much about CFB than most here, and the numbers are where they should be come Saturday morning.

I guess it comes down to how good you are at hitting the opening line. A few years ago, I convinced myself that I could dominate simply by getting all the openers. Then I started to realize I was only getting about 50% of them moving the right way for me.

Once in awhile a line opens up early that you can tell is clearly off, esp. early in the year. But by the end of the year, I feel like the edge wears off and lines don't really move as much.

If I'm not mistaken, though, you are a 1-AA bettor primarily - those lines swing harder than anything I've ever seen. I swung a few this week and I don't bet heavy, at all.

 

[Fondybadger]

If we didn't have games until Thursday I might have deleted this thread, but I think with the group of guys we have here we can let it develop into a good discussion about when to go get lines and how we can help others out by posting a current line that's readily available (even if we got it earlier or at a small time book/local). They key is sharing your thoughts on why you like a game so people can make their own decisions.

 

[RJ Esq]

I guess it comes down to how good you are at hitting the opening line. A few years ago, I convinced myself that I could dominate simply by getting all the openers. Then I started to realize I was only getting about 50% of them moving the right way for me.

Once in awhile a line opens up early that you can tell is clearly off, esp. early in the year. But by the end of the year, I feel like the edge wears off and lines don't really move as much.

If I'm not mistaken, though, you are a 1-AA bettor primarily - those lines swing harder than anything I've ever seen. I swung a few this week and I don't bet heavy, at all.

Seabass:

Here's my strategy about hitting openers.

After doing this for several years and comparing numbers with CB, Garf, Matador, Vanzack, and others, I have a pretty good idea about which way the number will move. So I look for good value on favs typically who have good offenses and are going against an overmatched opponent.

I lock in lines that are significantly lower than my projection. That way I should get the best number and the number will move the way I anticipate. If later on in the week additional info comes in or I don't feel comfortable about it, I can still hedge out for the cost of the juice.

In the longrun I'd rather occasionally lose the juice than not get the best number.

 

[RJ Esq]

If we didn't have games until Thursday I might have deleted this thread, but I think with the group of guys we have here we can let it develop into a good discussion about when to go get lines and how we can help others out by posting a current line that's readily available (even if we got it earlier or at a small time book/local). They key is sharing your thoughts on why you like a game so people can make their own decisions.

:shake:

But don't call out your fellow members. That's not right. Most people post what they got the line at. If you want to know whether it is still a good play at a different number, ask.

 

[RetroVK]

My two cents ......

More in line with Helmut 's thinking I guess. I think people fool themselves into the best line theory . Its great to have the best line and we all feel smarter for it but whats the actual amount of games that the difference bewteen opening and close changes the way the game is graded? Is it even 1% over a season ?

At one time I was all about getting ready for the NCAAF openers but now I could care less what happens on Sunday when it all comes out .

His point is why waste time writing a game up and you have say a spread 3 pts diffferent then the current market and you wouldnt play the game in teh same manner as in for teh same amount of dough.

If your taking Col at -11 then whats the difference at -13 ? Same with SoCar on Thursday or Wyoming on Sat . Whatever price you got the wagers were all graded the same .

I am taking that he is saying there should be MORE acknowledgement to the current line and how that impacts your play at the time of posting . I dont think he is saying I dont believe or dont trust anyone . Just whats the point of saying I have Fresno +6 or so when its closerto 3.5 now...if your posting that game or play talk about Fresno at 3.5 not +6 as it serves no purpose .....you can say you have +6 but for imformative purposes saying you have +6 is useless. Also lets be rational and understand 1/2 or 1 point doesnt matter much especially as the lines get higher ......

As for Helmut and basketball totals there is a HUGE difference in what he is talking about . We all check his writeups to see what and why he likes games . Big thing is his POST is actually moving the market . There is nothing he can do about that and not every total moves his way some go against him . So the difference is clear he is moving the market at times where as posters here are posting AFTER the market has moved...

It's not a huge issue but if your looking to making the forum crisper and more clear then I think he has a good point . I guess it boils down to why each indivual posts ....:cheers:

If you don't see the difference between fresno at +200 and fresno at +150 and think that difference is worth 1 percent i dont know what to say. books charge 10 cents for a half point. That is the basic determined value for a half point ( sometimes they charge more to get off of a 3 or 7 some places ).

there were 119 fbs schools last year and they play roughly 12 games each. This works out to about 714 games. Some of those games are not lined. There were 11/12 pushes last year. So a push occurred in 1.68% of the games .... And that accounts for just the half point difference between close and a better number. I am not going to put forth the effort to go beyond that but you can easily see the impact 2 or 3 points the best of it would have. The 1.68% is enough to realize that it is important. Maybe you guys are hitting at a percent way higher than me and can afford to lose 2 percent here and two percent there ... but i can only hit in the 57 -58 percent range and if i take the worst of it with the number it takes away a large amount of my profit. Again .. that is just a half point difference to the close ... some of these games move a ton ... see florida , wyoming.

Saying that the number is meaningless .. or only is involved in 1% of the games is just incorrect. factually wrong and needs to be slapped down as the hogwash that it is.