Some issues I have with some of the posted plays here

[SportsNut]

If we didn't have games until Thursday I might have deleted this thread, but I think with the group of guys we have here we can let it develop into a good discussion about when to go get lines and how we can help others out by posting a current line that's readily available (even if we got it earlier or at a small time book/local). They key is sharing your thoughts on why you like a game so people can make their own decisions.

It's kinda funny actually to me I dont understand why any feathers would be ruffled. I think RJ's recent post was a great answer as well. There are a group of people who look forward to the Sunday Opener 's and prepare for it . So they are providing tons of relevant info in that manner. Which a bunch of people enjoy doing ...

Like I said everyone posts for different reasons and think most people that have commented here have valid points . I dont understand why people are taking it as an attck or comment of mistrust . I took it as simply saying if your gonna take the time to post a writeup on a game because lines are volatile why not pay more acknowledgement to the current spread. If your not then your actually not providing much assistance .

Why are people even commenting about Blankets? This is like Blankets ? Thats what CTG has afforded us . A place for us to "argue" in an adult manner . We are all different people from different walks of life . Its okay to disagree as long as we keep the respect for eachother in tact . It's like a teacher telling a student his question is stupid . Gonna be abit tougher next time to ask a question which its gonna make it harder for discussions to take place if everyone takes things so personal. Lighten up fellas its just an observation . Explain why you do what you do and maybe it helps clear up the misunderstanding or maybe it helps people get on the same page .

Good Luck everyone today ....:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

I am surprised this thread was allowed to survive. Pretty lame IMO..

I get late lines and often inferior numbers. Makes a difference less than 1% of the time and that doesn't account for the ones that move the wrong way and you get F*cked.. I make that up by allowing myself more reseach time and observing line movement.. Lots of different approaches. I got other things to do on Sunday night..

Also, post Pinny, more guys are going back to locals, including this capper and those lines with local influences can create a wild disparity in numbers esp. in CFB.. Just post what you got..

Since there are alot of guys in here I'll change the subject.. I know there are different opinions regarding the creation of weeklong threads. Personally I hate them because they get too cumbersome.. But for the new guys and a reminder to some of the old timers. If you do a weeklong thread, it is much more user friendly if you can use the edit feature and keep your first page updated with all your plays that week.. Doesn't take long. Many guys do it, Fondy, CB etc... Just an off topic thought that I think would improve the quality of the forum unlike this thread.:cheers:.

 

[hoopsstar22]

You're right that 1-AA plays are the only ones I post, but they're certainly not my only plays. I just know that there are guys here that know much more about 1-A football than I do, so I just concentrate my time on 1-AA plays, and relying on the strong 1-A guys to narrow my list down to plays I should check out. Then from there I make my own conclusions as to what I play.

But I will agree that if playing WA#'s is your only/best option because of whatever the reason may be, then you're absolutely right that reduced juice is the way to go, and you're 100% correct to play it that way.

 

[RJ Esq]

It's kinda funny actually to me I dont understand why any feathers would be ruffled. I think RJ's recent post was a great answer as well. There are a group of people who look forward to the Sunday Opener 's and prepare for it . So they are providing tons of relevant info in that manner. Which a bunch of people enjoy doing ...

Like I said everyone posts for different reasons and think most people that have commented here have valid points . I dont understand why people are taking it as an attck or comment of mistrust . I took it as simply saying if your gonna take the time to post a writeup on a game because lines are volatile why not pay more acknowledgement to the current spread. If your not then your actually not providing much assistance .

Why are people even commenting about Blankets? This is like Blankets ? Thats what CTG has afforded us . A place for us to "argue" in an adult manner . We are all different people from different walks of life . Its okay to disagree as long as we keep the respect for eachother in tact . It's like a teacher telling a student his question is stupid . Gonna be abit tougher next time to ask a question which its gonna make it harder for discussions to take place if everyone takes things so personal. Lighten up fellas its just an observation . Explain why you do what you do and maybe it helps clear up the misunderstanding or maybe it helps people get on the same page .

Good Luck everyone today ....:cheers:

:shake:

 

[counselor]

Yeah, no shit.

Helmut, I can tell you that there are at least 5-10 of us here who are here EVERY Sunday all day and especially right around 6 pm EST when the lines come out. We predict the lines, we give our thoughts, and we create our shopping lists, and then download a lot of porn...

Fixed it for yas.

But it is true. I lurk Sunday nights and have actually ended up on the right side of a line a couple times. That said, the line has moved the other way on me, too, so it can work both ways.

I never posted my plays because 1) I suck and 2) I usually got lines that were no longer available because I had a book that wouldn't change his lines after Wed. (for sake of convenience) when he posted them online unless there was a dramatic line change (like a FG or more). I don't know that that is necessarily the case with some members here, but I've never had the impression that people here are using lines that are no longer available just to pad their stats.

 

[Joe Public]

I'd like to second the fact that post #48 was a very good one--yes, among others, but this one really stood out.

I also think any sort of 'mistrust' around here is wildly overblown. There's 100 times the trust here that there was/is over at Covers.

 

[tee*dub]

If you don't see the difference between fresno at +200 and fresno at +150 and think that difference is worth 1 percent i dont know what to say.

What about the times you are wrong and fresno moves from +200 to +250. Are you counting that into your >1% advantage?

Tend to agree with Nut actually.. The elite elite cappers maybe get a majority of them right but they also miss some. By counting the ones they get right but don't fall between line movement to make a difference and the ones they get wrong, I would agree it is less than 1% advantage to the majority of cappers.

Always feels good to get a good line but lets not forget about the times it moves the wrong way..

 

[madshooter]

I for the life of me can't understand why this guy has to stir up shit with nearly every thread he starts, same as the crap he pulled over at blankets. It would be nice to see you contribute or just lurk and not post things like this to get a rise out of everyone. Don't think I'm out of line with this either, sure there are other people who feel the same way.

 

[cogenman]

I for the life of me can't understand why this guy has to stir up shit with nearly every thread he starts, same as the crap he pulled over at blankets. It would be nice to see you contribute or just lurk and not post things like this to get a rise out of everyone. Don't think I'm out of line with this either, sure there are other people who feel the same way.

:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

What about the times you are wrong and fresno moves from +200 to +250. Are you counting that into your >1% advantage?

Tend to agree with Nut actually.. The elite elite cappers maybe get a majority of them right but they also miss some. By counting the ones they get right but don't fall between line movement to make a difference and the ones they get wrong, I would agree it is less than 1% advantage to the majority of cappers.

Always feels good to get a good line but lets not forget about the times it moves the wrong way..

This is a great point. Sometimes we are wrong about how a line moves. but the value of a half point is roughly 10 cents ... it is not an arbitrary number pulled out of the sky. The value of getting the best of the number is WAY over 1 percent. WAY over. You do have to get the best of it , no doubt and sometimes you don't. And when you don't it costs you money. i have wmich at -6.5 and if it goes off at -5.5 i have lost way more than 1 percent of value.

when i have hawaii plus 35.5 and have way the best of it over someone who has it at +28 and way the worst of it than someone who has it at +37.

This is sort of unreal to me.

Are we really discussiong whether line valyue is significant on a betting forum ?? really ??

Really surprised to see thus from a guy who bets huge figures as you do tee. I mean when you are betting 2k or mroe a game ... and that game swings from a win to a loss because of a bad number its a 4200 dollar swing ....

From a unit perspective a swing like that is 2.1 units, assuming a one unit bet.

This is insane.

39-29-2 last year on sides here at ctg. 2.85 percent of the games i played were pushed. Also lost an under bet by a half point that i got at a bad number that dmoney got at a better number. i dont begrudge him for doing better work than me , i get mad at myself for not getting the bet in fast enough.

I think the point about subtracting out the times where you get the worst of it is valid.

but the argument that the line comes into play less than 1 percent of the time is simply a falsehood. it is wrong. it is incorrect. or as previously stated .... it is hogwash.

 

[RetroVK]

in fact ..... i will sell anyone my wmich ticket right now at a reduced cost of 1 percent. doubt i get a taker on that.

 

[carolinablue]

Can't really answer for anyone else, but since my name has come up, here are my thoughts...

First, I post my plays based on the number I get when my play is submitted. Sometimes I guess right, sometimes I guess wrong. For me personally, there is absolutely no sense in my waiting to post based on what the line ends up being, because that isn't the line I am wagering my money on, so it doesn't reflect reality. Reality dictates that I post the line I specifically played, because I was prepared at open to jump on a line that I felt was out of variance.

Most of my plays are made based on the variance of the actual line vs my projected line so it takes me all of 2mins to lock in my plays after the opens are released as I just go down my list and look for the variance of each line, and I also reference any comments I jot down from box scores, local papers, post game notes, injuries etc. Most of my time Saturday night and Sunday morning is spent pulling everything together so that I am ready to roll once the lines open.

A lot of upfront work, but saves me time on Sunday night and allows me to lock in opens on games before most have even started research. This is the main reason I don't play NFL (or watch much of it) by the way, because there is no way I could get everything done if I was busy watching NFL on Sundays.

Everyone has equal access to the opens, some guys think there is value in locking early, some guys don't. Nothing wrong with either approach, but I have always been one to lock in my plays early, because it works for me. Not saying it is the approach everyone should take, but again, we do all have equal access to opens so there is nothing unfair or dishonest about posting the line you actually were able to secure at the book.

Now, I understand the point about whether or not would someone still make a play if the line moves 2 or 3 points, but that is what the discussion part of the forum is all about. I have guys all the time ask me "would you still take this even though the line is now x", and I answer either yes or no and why. Not that hard to do really, at least not as far as I am concerned, but again for me, it doesn't make sense to say "I really bet this at -4 but since it is now -6, I will post it at -6 and count it as a loss if the team wins by -5, even though I know I really won etc etc"...just doesn't make sense to me, as I find it interesting when guys are able to grab lines that I miss out on, as it tells me that I need to be more attentive and prepared as an early line guy, but that's just me.

In the end, I am sure there are some who may post false numbers for whatever reason, just like I am sure there are some who claim winners on non posted plays or whatever, but nothing anyone can do about that, plus it has no effect on me whatsoever, so I don't even worry about that kind of stuff. I give everyone the benefit of the doubt until they demonstrate to me otherwise, as the worst thing someone can do is question someone's integrity without any rhyme or reason to the accusation.

At the end of the day, I am here to talk college football with guys who are as passionate about it as I am, be a part of a community where I don't have to explain or justify what I find enjoyable, make a nice profit, and help others where I can by sharing thoughts, strategies, etc, nothing more nothing less. This forum is a great place where a lot of incredible information is shared on a regular basis and I look forward to seeing that continue this season.

Best of luck to everyone in week 2...even to those who posted Cal -11.5 while I am stuck with 12.5! (just kiddin')<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[Pucks]

I for the life of me can't understand why this guy has to stir up shit with nearly every thread he starts, same as the crap he pulled over at blankets. It would be nice to see you contribute or just lurk and not post things like this to get a rise out of everyone. Don't think I'm out of line with this either, sure there are other people who feel the same way.

:smiley_acbe: :shake:

 

[Fondybadger]

and I'm sitting on Cal -13

Anyways, can we get some talk going about the Fresno/Rutgers game? I have a play I need to put in and I can't get a good feel on the game.

 

[tee*dub]

This is a great point. Sometimes we are wrong about how a line moves. but the value of a half point is roughly 10 cents ... it is not an arbitrary number pulled out of the sky. The value of getting the best of the number is WAY over 1 percent. WAY over. You do have to get the best of it , no doubt and sometimes you don't. And when you don't it costs you money. i have wmich at -6.5 and if it goes off at -5.5 i have lost way more than 1 percent of value.

when i have hawaii plus 35.5 and have way the best of it over someone who has it at +28 and way the worst of it than someone who has it at +37.

This is sort of unreal to me.

Are we really discussiong whether line valyue is significant on a betting forum ?? really ??

Really surprised to see thus from a guy who bets huge figures as you do tee. I mean when you are betting 2k or mroe a game ... and that game swings from a win to a loss because of a bad number its a 4200 dollar swing ....

From a unit perspective a swing like that is 2.1 units, assuming a one unit bet.

This is insane.

39-29-2 last year on sides here at ctg. 2.85 percent of the games i played were pushed. Also lost an under bet by a half point that i got at a bad number that dmoney got at a better number. i dont begrudge him for doing better work than me , i get mad at myself for not getting the bet in fast enough.

I think the point about subtracting out the times where you get the worst of it is valid.

but the argument that the line comes into play less than 1 percent of the time is simply a falsehood. it is wrong. it is incorrect. or as previously stated .... it is hogwash.

I have some philisophical and mathmatical problems with this but mostly Kyle, the point is it rarely comes into play. There is no value difference between -5.5 and -6.5 unless the game lands on 6, regardless of whether you got the good number or the bad number. And yes I feel that game lands on 6 less than 1% of the time..

But even if it lands on it 3% of the time for argument sake, and you get the best number 2 out of 3 times. You won 2 lost 1 plus juice so you are below a 1% advantage...

No doubt it is an advantage and those that do it well should be applauded. Personally, I think it is a bit overrated compared to all the others factors involved in this mad obsession..

For example- A buddy of mine who resembles many in the gambling world, gets a lot of good lines but plays 90% chalk and never plays a ML dog..Sound familar? In my mind he beats me on only 1 of 3 components.. I kill him every year overall (check my ML dog record LY in NFL).. He doesn't understand how I do it because he always gets a better line than I do.. My point is-- I don't have the time to cap every game on Sunday night to the extent I feel I can be successful. If others can do that more power to them however I suspect many overlook the other important aspects because they rush to get a "perceived" good line.

on your other point--Play size and unit value are relative and always a percentage of bankroll. And swings are non existent in my mind.. A loss is a loss and only when one calculates his opportunity cost is he tempted to slip to the dark side..

Heading to Vegas in a couple.. Question- are all casino sportbooks now on board with allowing cell phones/ i phones/ blackberries etc.. That changes my world alot especially my ability reserach and to post on here when I am out there.

 

[Fondybadger]

and I'm sitting on Cal -13

Anyways, can we get some talk going about the Fresno/Rutgers game? I have a play I need to put in and I can't get a good feel on the game.

and yes it's a poor attempt to change the subject, but you guys know I can't lay off a game and I can't cap this one myself. leaning rutgers/over, but don't remember the last time I saw fresno play live. I want them to get blown out today kind of so i can get a good line on them with wisky in 2 weeks.

 

[Pucks]

I don't post much but a lot of the guys threads I read are guys that have come over from you know where. I would say about 90% of the posters don't lie about lines and if they Fudged up a line or two big deal. But it will be a big deal at the end of the game. If you got it early at 9.5 and then mid week it is at 10.5 and that team team win by 10 then you are fudged with 10.5, obviously.

At the end of the day it is our money being effected and we have great information to use here.

So if we choose to bet early or late on a line. NOT MUCH another capper can do.

 

[tee*dub]

Can't really answer for anyone else, but since my name has come up, here are my thoughts...

First, I post my plays based on the number I get when my play is submitted. Sometimes I guess right, sometimes I guess wrong. For me personally, there is absolutely no sense in my waiting to post based on what the line ends up being, because that isn't the line I am wagering my money on, so it doesn't reflect reality. Reality dictates that I post the line I specifically played, because I was prepared at open to jump on a line that I felt was out of variance.

Most of my plays are made based on the variance of the actual line vs my projected line so it takes me all of 2mins to lock in my plays after the opens are released as I just go down my list and look for the variance of each line, and I also reference any comments I jot down from box scores, local papers, post game notes, injuries etc. Most of my time Saturday night and Sunday morning is spent pulling everything together so that I am ready to roll once the lines open.

A lot of upfront work, but saves me time on Sunday night and allows me to lock in opens on games before most have even started research. This is the main reason I don't play NFL (or watch much of it) by the way, because there is no way I could get everything done if I was busy watching NFL on Sundays.

Everyone has equal access to the opens, some guys think there is value in locking early, some guys don't. Nothing wrong with either approach, but I have always been one to lock in my plays early, because it works for me. Not saying it is the approach everyone should take, but again, we do all have equal access to opens so there is nothing unfair or dishonest about posting the line you actually were able to secure at the book.

Now, I understand the point about whether or not would someone still make a play if the line moves 2 or 3 points, but that is what the discussion part of the forum is all about. I have guys all the time ask me "would you still take this even though the line is now x", and I answer either yes or no and why. Not that hard to do really, at least not as far as I am concerned, but again for me, it doesn't make sense to say "I really bet this at -4 but since it is now -6, I will post it at -6 and count it as a loss if the team wins by -5, even though I know I really won etc etc"...just doesn't make sense to me, as I find it interesting when guys are able to grab lines that I miss out on, as it tells me that I need to be more attentive and prepared as an early line guy, but that's just me.

In the end, I am sure there are some who may post false numbers for whatever reason, just like I am sure there are some who claim winners on non posted plays or whatever, but nothing anyone can do about that, plus it has no effect on me whatsoever, so I don't even worry about that kind of stuff. I give everyone the benefit of the doubt until they demonstrate to me otherwise, as the worst thing someone can do is question someone's integrity without any rhyme or reason to the accusation.

At the end of the day, I am here to talk college football with guys who are as passionate about it as I am, be a part of a community where I don't have to explain or justify what I find enjoyable, make a nice profit, and help others where I can by sharing thoughts, strategies, etc, nothing more nothing less. This forum is a great place where a lot of incredible information is shared on a regular basis and I look forward to seeing that continue this season.

Best of luck to everyone in week 2...even to those who posted Cal -11.5 while I am stuck with 12.5! (just kiddin')<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

For the record and I think I speak for many who have been around awhile-- no one ever questions the number you post is indeed the number you play. :shake:

 

[Pucks]

and yes it's a poor attempt to change the subject, but you guys know I can't lay off a game and I can't cap this one myself. leaning rutgers/over, but don't remember the last time I saw fresno play live. I want them to get blown out today kind of so i can get a good line on them with wisky in 2 weeks.

I am leaning toward the OVER myself FONDY.

 

[SportsNut]

If you don't see the difference between fresno at +200 and fresno at +150 and think that difference is worth 1 percent i dont know what to say. books charge 10 cents for a half point. That is the basic determined value for a half point ( sometimes they charge more to get off of a 3 or 7 some places ).

there were 119 fbs schools last year and they play roughly 12 games each. This works out to about 714 games. Some of those games are not lined. There were 11/12 pushes last year. So a push occurred in 1.68% of the games .... And that accounts for just the half point difference between close and a better number. I am not going to put forth the effort to go beyond that but you can easily see the impact 2 or 3 points the best of it would have. The 1.68% is enough to realize that it is important. Maybe you guys are hitting at a percent way higher than me and can afford to lose 2 percent here and two percent there ... but i can only hit in the 57 -58 percent range and if i take the worst of it with the number it takes away a large amount of my profit. Again .. that is just a half point difference to the close ... some of these games move a ton ... see florida , wyoming.

Saying that the number is meaningless .. or only is involved in 1% of the games is just incorrect. factually wrong and needs to be slapped down as the hogwash that it is.

I understand your stance VK . I dont see a problem with you guys doing what you do on Sunday . It works for you and many others .If one can be prepared enough to do then you can very often get some nice "added" value .

Your missing my point . College Sports there are definetly alot more games falling close to numbers . Anyone can feel free to check this past week and tell me what games were middled between opening and closing numbers.

You still dont seem to ackowledge that will price may pay a role in one's decison to bet something the price does change the outcome. It's better to have Fresno at +200 then +150 but either both prices win or lose. Its cut and dry . So my POINT is if your posting a Fresno ML play and it sits at +150 then talk about it at +150 not +200 . Which has nothing to do with you or anyone who is chasing numbers on Sunday. Its just a statement for how to approach posting if your trying to share your point of view.

So if there are 800 games and 5% are effected thats 40 games over a season or 3-4 a week ..not the huge issue its made out to be IMO...

My point is this you try to bet games that have advantages if your "advantage" is so thin that 1 or 2 points matters or $20 on the ML matters then your focusing on the wrong games . Which goes back to baseball and understanding implied odds . Alot of my bigger plays I think have a 70-75% chance of winning in that spot but tend to pay like -140 for them. Which is a huge discount to price if 75% is -300.

So if you like Col at -11 you should expect they win by at least 14 points and feel comfortable laying up to -13.5 on them . So while 2-3 pts matters there are just so many dead numbers in games beyod the obvious.

This discussion will go on forever and boils down to the same thing price is an illusion . It does nothing to dictate an outcome on a game . Its about figuring out how a team will go and who scores what . Even a tight line has a winner and a loser....Today with ionline books they are so many BS numbers printed IMO. Who cares if a game was a pt or two off for 5 minutes and $5000 was booked on the game..? I certainly dont . There is a huge difference bewteen a 6 pt move on a game that moved hard and a game that was continually bet down a 1/2 pt or 1 pt at a time.....HUGE difference ....

I know alot of these games move a ton but the point is it doesnt matter on almost all of them . Why did people take Hawaii ? For the WORST possible reason they expected a backdoor cover and / or Fla to get up big and coast . You never ever take dogs unless they are going to be competitive in the game . Especially in College where in 10-15 minutes games can change wildly.

I really dont care what % anyone hits this is not a competiton though it always seems to be . To me its about commonsense and using it to better one self as a capper . To hit 58% is great .....

I checked Fri and Sat's game wgich was like 62 plays and 1 side and 5 totals were middled.

The one side was WKU losing by 18 closed at 17.5 and opened at 21. There is no one who should have been stuck with WKU at 17.5 though it was widely available higher all week alot fo 18s and 19s out there.

The rest were all totals and most to the differences were ridiculous ...
ECU 50 to 44 ....COMMONSENSE 101....a total with 7TDs loses a TD basically pretyy obvious losing 1/7th its value is HUGE .....also shows it went from 50 to 45 ...so very little chance to get above 45 which LOST

UAB 68 to 66.5 ....landed on 67 ...just one of those things I know the game was 66.5 most of Sat as I played the over at 66.5 ...

NIU 59 to 56 ....landed on 58....really dont know who is looking at UNDERS at Minny but it mattered to some I guess...

Hawaii 72 to 64 ...landed on 66 ...dont know where 72 came from ...scoresandodds has the next price after 72 at 65.5 and never higher then 66 so there should be no losers either way .....

The other was the temple total on Fri...
opened at 44 closed at 40 nut next print at 41.5 and fell on 42......

So thats 62 plays and I see two LEGIT line differences that mattered . The rest were all BS.......

These discussions are a waste of my time as I just repeat the same thing....If people think they are only 10 games a week worth betting I wish they could sit next to me for a week...perfetc example in MLB last night : LAD game ...hit them 1st 5 ML , game ML , +1.5 RL , 1st inn Score YES , Over RHE , Game over and 1st 5 inn over.......it was just littered with value IMO and thankfully I was rewarded....

We are all good cappers and we all should learn from each other . I dont deny the value in a better number but you should be making your decisions IMO near gameday to get the best overview of the situation. Its great to have a better number but it just doesnt matter say 96% of the time. If your involved in alot of close games well then your picking the wrong games to get involved in.......

There are so many ways to play games its makes for tremendous amounts of opps to make money on a daily basis. I knew I had a good run to end my day yesterday from 3:30 on so I went and checked to see what I did .....my day finished 27-1-1 after the 3:30 games excluding losing a round robin which I did win 3 of 4 games and cahsed for something . The game that killed it over 56 CU which landed on 55. My 1 loss and Push....had 1st 5under @ LAA and the game went UNDER actually the Push had CU 1st H but waited and got -7 instead of -6.5 which was available most of the day ......there are so many more knowledgable people here then I but just think to many dont imply simple commonsense to what they are doing . One big flaw I have is overthink things because I try to rationalize things .You dont need to rationalize value its pretty simple to me VALUE equals WINNING. End of story ...its about clarity for me ...

I think we over emphasize the better line . I know I did and thats why I stopped paying attention. Go back 5 years ago I was jumping in like everyone else on early lines but to often I found myself thinking I no longer like this play but kept it because my price was better then market.....

Lines rarely matter is the best way to put it and the most important number is knowing where a game is readily available to bet IMo.......

So again off topic but just responding ....if anyone understands the importance of price and movement I think its me as all I do is react to what the market gives me.....What I am as gambler has been from my interaction with you guys so take it FWIWs these are the lessons you unknowingly taught me (and the bond market did as well) ....
:cheers:

 

[Joe Public]

Great post, Tee.

 

[SportsNut]

I am surprised this thread was allowed to survive. Pretty lame IMO..

I get late lines and often inferior numbers. Makes a difference less than 1% of the time and that doesn't account for the ones that move the wrong way and you get F*cked.. I make that up by allowing myself more reseach time and observing line movement.. Lots of different approaches. I got other things to do on Sunday night..

Also, post Pinny, more guys are going back to locals, including this capper and those lines with local influences can create a wild disparity in numbers esp. in CFB.. Just post what you got..

Since there are alot of guys in here I'll change the subject.. I know there are different opinions regarding the creation of weeklong threads. Personally I hate them because they get too cumbersome.. But for the new guys and a reminder to some of the old timers. If you do a weeklong thread, it is much more user friendly if you can use the edit feature and keep your first page updated with all your plays that week.. Doesn't take long. Many guys do it, Fondy, CB etc... Just an off topic thought that I think would improve the quality of the forum unlike this thread.:cheers:.

Pretty much sums it up in a paragraph....:cheers::tiphat:

 

[Joe Public]

By the way, that lifting of the cell phone ban is Nevada-wide, it seems.

Story from the LVRJ.

That's a huge thing. Especially for those of us with things like the iPhone. If we can sit there and line shop, fantastic.

Of course, that pretty much most of the Strip books are run by the same two companies sort of takes away a lot of potential value.

 

[SportsNut]

in fact ..... i will sell anyone my wmich ticket right now at a reduced cost of 1 percent. doubt i get a taker on that.

Because you make it a literal arguement . Thats the trick to gambling its not literal. Thats why I dont disagree with your points but how you are applying it .

The PROBLEM with VALUE is its used in a literal fashion. Its exactly why I bet Missouri at -9 because I know there are all the value players on ILL thinking its to high. I dont even look at the game just knew as soon as I saw the spread what the mentality would be .....hit 2 of my 3 play son that game....went 1st Q , 1st H and game .....

VALUE is in winning not price .

Why would anyone buy a ticket at a price worse then whats available ? Would you buy a shirt for $40 bucks when two stores down you can get it for $20? Of course not its not the same discussion . Its different types of value...Cleary though you see price as a huge part of value and I dont.

IMO your FLAW is you take the price aspect as making to much of the value of arguement.

FRI/SAT there were basically 2 games of 62 sides and totals that you couldnt avoid getting fucked on.

Pick 10 random games and just look at EVERY single price movement for that game from Sunday to kick . Then when its over see how all that movement played into the game outcome.

 

[SportsNut]

For the record and I think I speak for many who have been around awhile-- no one ever questions the number you post is indeed the number you play. :shake:

I second that . Always very informative and upfront ..

 

[tee*dub]

By the way, that lifting of the cell phone ban is Nevada-wide, it seems.

Story from the LVRJ.

That's a huge thing. Especially for those of us with things like the iPhone. If we can sit there and line shop, fantastic.

Of course, that pretty much most of the Strip books are run by the same two companies sort of takes away a lot of potential value.

From purely a convein. standpoint this is very encouraging to me.. Wonder where they draw the line on computers.. iphone is basically a computer as are many of the mini models.. Thanks Joe

My host at the Wynn got laid off recently.. Think this economy is going to change a few things Vegas

 

[RetroVK]

FRI/SAT there were basically 2 games of 62 sides and totals that you couldnt avoid getting fucked on.

Pick 10 random games and just look at EVERY single price movement for that game from Sunday to kick . Then when its over see how all that movement played into the game outcome.

First ,,,, you and i have gone around in circles about price a million times ... maybe less ... but its just bashing our heads against the wall.

but to the point of the 2 in 62 games ...... thats 3.2 percent of the games ,,,, the best cappers in the world who also run lucky will hit at 60 %. I just don't think we can afford to be giving away that money.

But to illustrate my point , i will make a separate thread concerning this and track it for the year so that what i mean can be properly shown. i will show three columns of bettors .... bettorA gets 1 point better than closing number. bettorB will get the closing number. And bettorC will get one point the worst of closing number. all bets will be 1.10 units to win 1.00 units. And we will see how much the unit difference is.

Since it will reflect every game , you can then divide it by the percent of games that you yourself play to get a feel for what the difference would be between getting a point the best or a point the worst of it. I promise it will be significant.

 

[pharmacyst]

I keep seeing this brought up in this thread, what are dead numbers?

 

[Joe Public]

iphone is basically a computer as are many of the mini models.

Damn right. And if you can give me just one site that will give me easy to read comparison lines from books on-line, I can cross-shop pretty well sitting in a Vegas book.

That said, I've yet to try to bet from the iPhone, I'm actually not too crazy about doing so--and I'm almost certain it would be a huge pain in the ass to try to bet into Matchbook from it. As it might or would with any handheld, but online books aren't dumb (mostly, anyway) they'll figure out a way to make this happen if they haven't already.

Hell, I feel like I could sit there and middle pretty well off-shore and on if they're going to let this go.

Frankly, you kind of could anyway, really. All you have to do is step outside the book with the sheet. Maybe that's why they did this, they realize they're not really stopping anybody any more--and with only one or two real linesmakers in town, they're not going to get shopped.

They'll still have runners hitting them up at the same time, though, now more than ever. I suppose that's why it's only lifted for a year.

Sucks to hear about your host, Tee.

 

[tee*dub]

FRI/SAT there were basically 2 games of 62 sides and totals that you couldnt avoid getting fucked on.

Pick 10 random games and just look at EVERY single price movement for that game from Sunday to kick . Then when its over see how all that movement played into the game outcome.

First ,,,, you and i have gone around in circles about price a million times ... maybe less ... but its just bashing our heads against the wall.

but to the point of the 2 in 62 games ...... thats 3.2 percent of the games ,,,, the best cappers in the world who also run lucky will hit at 60 %. I just don't think we can afford to be giving away that money.

But to illustrate my point , i will make a separate thread concerning this and track it for the year so that what i mean can be properly shown. i will show three columns of bettors .... bettorA gets 1 point better than closing number. bettorB will get the closing number. And bettorC will get one point the worst of closing number. all bets will be 1.10 units to win 1.00 units. And we will see how much the unit difference is.

Since it will reflect every game , you can then divide it by the percent of games that you yourself play to get a feel for what the difference would be between getting a point the best or a point the worst of it. I promise it will be significant.

Bro, don't go to a ton of work.. We agree it is a great approach, just disagree slightly on total impact.. Even if you do the spreadsheet it will be somewhat flawed based on bettor behavior.. For example I would be much more likely to bet a game that falls off of the 4 or 5 numbers vs falling off of 3 and 7 / key numbers.. And again, the chart has to assume you miss an arbitrary number of moves... No way to make it a fair indicator..

 

[bjorks]

Here's my take on it, FWIW...

Betting and lines are all about the public perception in order to get as close to 50% betting on both sides. The money is in the juice for the books.

The line moves not necessarily on factors in the game, but is a reaction to how the public perceives the game and teams. Obviously there are many times (like Wyoming this weekend) where it doesn't matter what the line is, the money is going to be lopsided.

Rarely, but sometimes I like to get the early line on Sunday because...
1) I've got a number in my mind and it's wary off from the actual/opening
2) I like to get on a team before it's adjusted because of public opinion

Maybe I read this wrong, but I was really surprised someone said what's the difference between -11 and -13. It's huge. I could completely care less about my winning percentage, but thought I'd try to keep track this year. It's not to tout myself or anything, but there's more and more new people on the site in general and instead of explaining myself 10x's a week and asking me what my record is I decided I'd try to keep track.

I could careless if Fondy goes 1,239,239-3,412,947 this year with a 30% percentage or if BAR went 12-8 for the year. All I care about is information and whether people are raking. I don't try to be the best capper here because I know I'm not, but I use every bit of info here to support my plays and making use of the early lines helps.

I think Helmut is looking and taking the information the wrong way instead of trying to use it in a helpful/positive way.

Just my opinion and remember, as always... I'm an idiot.

 

[Joe Public]

I keep seeing this brought up in this thread, what are dead numbers?

These are numbers that aren't key numbers.

For example, in football, 3 and 7 are the two big key numbers, then 4 and 10, because you score in multiples of 3 and 7. So differences will often land on those numbers. Hence the reason people buy off 3 and 7 to to 2.5/3.5 and 6.5/7.

But because there are these key numbers, there are also numbers that very rarely matter. Like 5. Perhaps the deadest number of them all in football. Because very, very rarely will a game end in a five point difference, simply based on math and the way teams score.

 

[tee*dub]

I keep seeing this brought up in this thread, what are dead numbers?

numbers that don't come up very often.. Opposite of Key numbers.. For example in Football 3 is a key number meaning many games end on that number.. 5 or 5.5 would be an example of dead number..:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

Bro, don't go to a ton of work.. We agree it is a great approach, just disagree slightly on total impact.. Even if you do the spreadsheet it will be somewhat flawed based on bettor behavior.. For example I would be much more likely to bet a game that falls off of the 4 or 5 numbers vs falling off of 3 and 7 / key numbers.. And again, the chart has to assume you miss an arbitrary number of moves... No way to make it a fair indicator..

i agree , it wont take into account a lot of detail , especially from people like you that realize the difference between key numbers and the less significant ones. But it will be a basic way of showing the difference just from having 1 point the better or worse of the close.

i want to show that it matters. this debate has been going on for a long time at this site.

i will probably never be as good a capper as you are. i will probably never know the minutia of baseball that nut knows. but i will damn well try my best to get to each of your levels. But even after i get to a point where i cap at a higher percentage , i know for a fact that getting the best of the number pays huge dividends.

its not a perfect test because it is basic and it will include games that never moved much , but it will show one way or the other whether price matter emperically.... the only way that really matters, not because i say one thing and someone else says something different.... i only have so much time to devote , tee or i would do it in more detail. if someone else wants to take on that monster be my guest, but it will be a monster.

 

[SportsNut]

Also though it was just 2 of 62 and that is 3 % but how much volume is going into those 2 totals ? Minny and NIU and the UAB - Tusla game . So in my world it had zero effect. I bet the over 66.5 at Tulsa and won and if anything I would lean over 56 @ Minny . Thats my point if you look at when it matters its gonna come out to a small pct. I didnt say 1% was literal I just throw out a number . Your not going to be involved in every of thses games that matters . I made at least 50 NCAAF plays and the only one that caught me was the ECU total but I never would have had 50.

I dont want you to kill yourself tracking this stuff but please do if you have the time. Look at the games you bet this week and look at evert number printed out that game at every book . Did your better number matter at anytime ?

I think one can hit above 60% in a sport . I bet so much shit and so many sports and I am very sure I hit above 60% of the sides I play but due to props , even totals , 1h bets etc it weighs the numbers down.. The key to winning is this always hang around 50% when your cold and when yout HOT press it and watch u streak ride . Like I said no one has to believe me but from 3:30 on yesterday I finished 27-1-1 bewteen NCAAF , MLB and WNBA....doesnt make me great and doesnt make me special its the definition of being in the zone ......starting this morning it meant nothing ......value is in winning ....thats my simple approach ...

I hope you do track it because I know what it will show. TeeDub explains it better then I do though .....

All you guys know CFB better then I do but what I can give to you is the understanding of how to be more effecient .....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Cut and paste VK...

I already did quickly for week 1 . The best number doesnt matter in the big scheme of things especially like TEE said the time you give up to get that number .....

Will see I am certain because I was you 5 years ago till I realized this . Again its not about better as this is not a competition.

 

[SportsNut]

Also I am not saying there isnt an advantage . Is the SLIGHT advantage worth what you give up - time ?

 

[SHSUHorn]

Who cares. I usually hit the opening lines on most plays and add some on Saturday. When I hit the opening plays I don't post them immediatley cause I want to give my reasoning why I took the play. 3 points doesn't effect whether I will play the game or not.

I remember the covers Germans coming at me because of this and we looked at my last month of plays and not a single game that I won mattered what line I had.

I won a ton of games this past week and I don't think a single game mattered what line I got.

 

[RetroVK]

Also I am not saying there isnt an advantage . Is the SLIGHT advantage worth what you give up - time ?

i am in it for the money. my competition is my wallet vs the sportsbook. other than that i cheer for everyone to win ... virtually everyone because i like the books to lose.

what time is given up ? a few hours on a sunday afternoon ??

the prep work is just doing the same thing everyone else does but a week in advance.

 

[RetroVK]

BTW in regards to a 1 percent difference. i find that significant. seems like a small number but in context it is not.

 

[RetroVK]

Because you make it a literal arguement . Thats the trick to gambling its not literal. Thats why I dont disagree with your points but how you are applying it .

The PROBLEM with VALUE is its used in a literal fashion. Its exactly why I bet Missouri at -9 because I know there are all the value players on ILL thinking its to high. I dont even look at the game just knew as soon as I saw the spread what the mentality would be .....hit 2 of my 3 play son that game....went 1st Q , 1st H and game .....

VALUE is in winning not price .

Why would anyone buy a ticket at a price worse then whats available ? Would you buy a shirt for $40 bucks when two stores down you can get it for $20? Of course not its not the same discussion . Its different types of value...Cleary though you see price as a huge part of value and I dont.

IMO your FLAW is you take the price aspect as making to much of the value of arguement.

FRI/SAT there were basically 2 games of 62 sides and totals that you couldnt avoid getting fucked on.

Pick 10 random games and just look at EVERY single price movement for that game from Sunday to kick . Then when its over see how all that movement played into the game outcome.

i dont understand the bolded part above. if the difference between 5.5 ( its moved to -6 most places now ) and 6.5 is less than 1 percent and i give a 1 percent discount , according to you isn't the -6.5 ticket more valuable ?

 

[Inspekdah]

Yeah this thread is horrible. Helmut, spend more times capping games and less time criticizing how others do and post their work.

 

[Fondybadger]

I keep seeing this brought up in this thread, what are dead numbers?

4.5-5.5, 8-9.5, 10.5-12.5, 14.5-16.5 all to some extent. If I see a line in that zone I don't feel as if I need to hit it right away unless I think it's going to only get higher and i'll buy the .5-1pt. Yeah you can get screwed on some of those. Think Colorado last night -11.5 and they had the 11 point lead there late, but that's basically what I see as dead numbers.

 

[Marlo]

i am in it for the money. my competition is my wallet vs the sportsbook. other than that i cheer for everyone to win ... virtually everyone because i like the books to lose.

what time is given up ? a few hours on a sunday afternoon ??

the prep work is just doing the same thing everyone else does but a week in advance.

:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

i dont understand the bolded part above. if the difference between 5.5 ( its moved to -6 most places now ) and 6.5 is less than 1 percent and i give a 1 percent discount , according to you isn't the -6.5 ticket more valuable ?

I misread it by mistake . Please ignore.

I know you root for everyone VK ...
:cheers:

I am tired to discuss this further at the moment ..

 

[hoopsstar22]

FWIW... Last CFB season I pushed 9 of 296 plays. That's 3%.

And I know that we're talking CFB, but just for push rate percentage sake, From 1989-2006 in the NFL on games lined on whole numbers 1-7, the push rate was ~3.98%, with a sample size of 2952 games.

So I think to say that pushes occur in less than 1% of games is significantly understating it.

 

[Fondybadger]

As a heads up I'm going to close this thread in 1 hour. I think it's played out and I'd rather have a lot of talented cappers spending time looking at week 2's card.

 

[SportsNut]

Bjorks: I made to the 11 to 13 pt comment . Again your taking it literally. Of course there is a difference but the point is if you love CU at -11 you should feel equally as strong at -13. If you dont then your play on -11 isnt as strong as you make it out to be. Now -13 is a key number so pay the 10 cents and buy it off . Winning is where the value lies and SHSU said it best . You should feel so strongly about your plays that 3 pts really shouldnt matter . If they do then your play is marginal based on being so line sensitive . Thats why the best line is not very important in the long run .....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

As a heads up I'm going to close this thread in 1 hour. I think it's played out and I'd rather have a lot of talented cappers spending time looking at week 2's card.

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

i am in it for the money. my competition is my wallet vs the sportsbook. other than that i cheer for everyone to win ... virtually everyone because i like the books to lose.

what time is given up ? a few hours on a sunday afternoon ??

the prep work is just doing the same thing everyone else does but a week in advance.

For me I could never fully cap a football card in day . So the time given up is 7 days . :cheers: