So, if you're the Suns . . .

Joe Public

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
How pissed are you right now?

Let's see, Bruce Bowen knees Steve Nash in the nuts. No discipline at all. Bowen also may or may not have tried to take out Amare's legs earlier in the series. Steve Nash has been bloodied, albeit accidentially, to the point he couldn't finish a game. And now you get arguably your second best player suspended for a game over some bulls**t.

Can they really f**k this team any harder?
 
I would put Pat Burke in late in game 5 and Body Slam Ducan to see if they can get some spurs players to jump up off the bench lol
 
I say it opens at around a pick'em and moves maybe a point to favor the spurs. I have a feeling the books knew this was comming and it will not move to much until it is bet by people reacting to this news. I say get it right away if going spurs, wait for the peak if going suns. any more then 2 points is way too much, I would be suprised to see it open any higher then 1 though.
 
That -1.5 has been up there for a while with no money on it.

The Greek had -2 earlier in the day before they took it down for the suspensions.

My guess is -2 or -2.5 for the Spurs, and I think you're going to get a good deal of Phoenix money.
 
My guess is -2 or -2.5 for the Spurs, and I think you're going to get a good deal of Phoenix money.

late I definately see Phx money as the analysts realize this is still a playoff game in phx and try and sell it that way. initially I think that phx bettors will hold off with so much uncertainty. maybe I am just hoping that it happens, but I see this number moving at least a point from where it opens back up at before taking substantial Phx action.
 
I'm quite interested to know what the Suns are going to do with personnel. Do they start Barbosa, Bell, Nash, Marion, and Thomas or do they actually play Jalen or *cough* Burke some minutes? If they go small then both teams should score plenty. Not to mention that every single foul will be called in this game. It'll be interesting to see the moves that the Suns make here.
 
Joe, you think this line will move at all from when it opens to favor SA even more? or you think it will just move down from where it opens back up at?
 
I think you're right, JP, and if every single foul is called in this game, it just makes things worse for Phoenix.

SA is not as bad as they've been from the line in years past. Send them to the line all game, slow it down and they're going to fist-f**k you.

Remember, these two teams have played this series before without Amare, when he was hurt. It wasn't very close.
 
I barely play totals, but I agree that the over will be a great play. the number will go down cuz of Amare and Diaw's offensive output, but Their defense is key that will be missed. In a team with less talent, D'antoni will IMO try to run more to get easier baskets (break) moreso than before. The fouls will be hot, and non clock and free throws will kill up
 
Joe, you think this line will move at all from when it opens to favor SA even more? or you think it will just move down from where it opens back up at?

Well, first, I'm not a huge NBA guy so take that into account. But what I would say is this. Like anything it's going to depend on the number.

If they put it at SA -1 or a PK, I think they're asking for SA money and I think they'll get it. That's where I think you'll get more of a move. If they put it at -2, -2.5, or even a -3, they're trying to get Phoenix money and I think they'll get more of a split.

I don't know how you could really put up anything much bigger than a -3 for a playoff game, in Phoenix, in this situtation. That not only invites a lot of money on the home team, but it requires that you give up a pretty good ML on them as well.

Conversely, I don't think you want to come anywhere near -110 for the Spurs on the ML. I think you want to have them, at least, around -120, or -130. Because you will take in that money regardless of the spread.

My guess, total random shot in the dark guess, would be that if the books could open a -150 or better Spurs' ML and a SA -2-ish number that they'd be in a happy place.
 
Call me crazy, but I think you're going to see a 110-102 victory for the Spurs tomorrow and then you'll see the Suns roll back into SA and pull off the game 6 upset. Game 7 is anybody's guess. I can honestly see it happening.
 
I actually completely agree with you, JP. I think the Spurs win here then Phoenix comes in pissed and kicks the s**t out of SA in SA.

Then SA wins Game Seven.
 
LV Hilton has a line out..... -1.0 -110spurs

Humm, interesting. Keep us posted on where that goes. I think that moves up.
 
wow, you guys really think so. In playoffs the home team is so powerful, I say even moreso then any momentum teams have. I cannot see the home team losing 2 games in a row at home (phx just beat SA when they were home so I really think that the Suns will win SU this time.) and to go even further and say the last 4 games the visiting team will win.... whoa Joe if you are right, plz give me some lotto numbers and you and I will get rich. That would be something amazing, definately possible but wow if it happens.... it is kinda a wierd series though.
 
Joe Public said:
LV Hilton has a line out..... -1.0 -110spurs

Humm, interesting. Keep us posted on where that goes. I think that moves up.
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will do.... scrambling with about a dozen browsers open trying to get a feel on this new line. sucks not to have SI's live lines up as well, but I can get most of them off other sites and books themselves, just much more of a pain. oh well what else do I have to do? homework..... psst.
 
But this 'is' homework. It's teaching you valuable things like how to spot money moves, something easily transferable to the financial sector.

So tell your professors to sit and spin.

Pinny and the Greek still with nothing, people occasionally dipping a pinky toe into the water at Matchbook, but nothing serious.
 
Blue. I wish I had the #'s to make it more believable, but good teams win on the road in the playoffs. It's more of a perception that nobody wins on the road. The Suns have split the first two game on the road of every series they've played in since Steve Nash came to Phoenix. Obviously they know how to win on the road. The Spurs are 3-1 Su on the road this year and 3-2 Su at home. When elite teams play each other home court is a little less valuable IMO. Look at SA and Dallas last year as both teams won on each other's court. Dallas was also 2-1 in Phoenix last year during the playoffs. It happens all the time with great teams. That's what makes them great.
 
Fairly convinced that it'll be at 2.5 and who knows for the total. I'm guessing that sucker dances for awhile.
 
Fairly convinced that it'll be at 2.5 and who knows for the total.

If it is and I guessed right I'm going to feel pretty smart for a good twenty minutes or so.
 
Joe Public said:
Fairly convinced that it'll be at 2.5 and who knows for the total.

If it is and I guessed right I'm going to feel pretty smart for a good twenty minutes or so.
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Give yourself 30 minutes. After reading some of your threads about B.A.R. you might have a couple of days to feel pretty good about it. :)
 
more to the point, does anyone think the Suns can score reliably without their only serious inside threat? I think this might make for an excellent under opportunity tomorrow...
 
I heard that, Red, that was too funny.

Speaking of which, is that you sticking a full toe in the water at Matchbook on the Suns -1.5 (-102)?
 
To the point of the total, I think that's a much bigger mystery.

How much does that thing move will really dictate the play, or if there's even any value there, I'd think.

Also, the point above Rookie makes about the Suns missing that defense may open up value on the over if the total over-adjusts down.
 
Throwback420 said:
^^^ Kurt Thomas has been steppin up
Click to expand...

Elson or Oberto can contain the vaunted threat that is Kurt Thomas...anyway, he'll be taking those 18 footers.

The point is that they won't do but so well shooting from the outside without a viable inside threat to collapse the D. The 3 pointers won't be falling because Bowen and Manu will be kneeing people in the balls...
 
The 3 pointers won't be falling because Bowen and Manu will be kneeing people in the balls...

Ha. No kidding, now that they realize they can get away with it, why not.

Seriously, though, back to the total, you have to expect a tightly called game tomorrow, which could, again, give the over some free help.
 
JPicks, I agree with you as it has already happened twice in this series. Home teams winning in the playoffs is no myth, even in the later rounds. But, I understand what you mean, I am also basing my eventual play here on phx on a typical overreaction to the line after a major injury or suspension. I am playing only on the fact that the line will be overbet imo and I hope that in the long run these types of bets will grind out a profit. If there is not a shift to SA now, I will probably leave it alone, but I find that hard to believe at least initially. we'll see.
 
I honestly expect no action on that....

Yeah, I don't blame you, though, trying to get a good price on the Spurs +1.5.
 
Joe Public said:
The 3 pointers won't be falling because Bowen and Manu will be kneeing people in the balls...

Ha. No kidding, now that they realize they can get away with it, why not.

Seriously, though, back to the total, you have to expect a tightly called game tomorrow, which could, again, give the over some free help.
Click to expand...

I hear you. But I do think the guard Defense the spurs have given the Suns on the perimeter has been excellent. Losing Horry doesn't really hurt that. Losing Amare means the Suns can't get the same open looks and pick and rolls they're used to.

Maybe I'm wrong and Marion will make up the difference, or the Suns will go with GSW smallball and push the tempo even more.

But I don't think the Suns can reliably score with that style. It's not like the Suns have the depth to keep their pace up with only 6 or 7 guys.

Burke might see some minutes. Not scared.

I'm not worried about Spurs scoring, because I think they'll be better equipped to control tempo by going inside to their bigs all night...

I would look for very few 3pters taken by the Spurs. ....big night for Timmy. VERY big.

or I could be completely wrong.
 
Joe Public said:
I honestly expect no action on that....

Yeah, I don't blame you, though, trying to get a good price on the Spurs +1.5.
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have heard some great stories from guys hanging bad numbers out there overnight and waking up to find it taken. gotta figure that for some MB is their only out... good luck with it Red.
 
bluemyboy said:
have heard some great stories from guys hanging bad numbers out there overnight and waking up to find it taken. gotta figure that for some MB is their only out... good luck with it Red.
Click to expand...

Thanks. We shall see. I lose nothing by trying...

'an_horse'
 
Nah, I think you have a really good feel for it.

Frankly I've been waiting for one of those games played in the 80s from the Spurs for three games now. I really thought yesterday was it though halftime, then SA exploded like a Coke in the freezer for too long and it almost shot my bets all to hell.

I really agree about Duncan. I think it's going to be a long night for him, but I think they're going to pound the Suns inside as much as they can and get cheap foul after cheap foul.

The question is, will that slow pace plus those fouls be enough to get over the total? That's why I say it depends on the number. But if it's anything in the mid-to-high 190s I think you've got to look at the under.
 
Blue's right, and also there are times when you can catch people before they've heard info.

Honestly, as much as some of the lack of volume at MB bugs me, there are times when I feel like I'm in that scene from Rounders where they're all in Vegas sitting around the table with guys they know taking money off tourists. Because there are times when I really think I can name some of the money on the board.
 
hahahahhaa....vanzack is somewhat spottable during CFB, I would think...

I was honestly thinking they wouldn't lower the total...if they do, then of course I've got to re-evaluate.

You're right, it's definitely dependent on the number.
 
=)

Yeah, well, if they don't lower the number, and they hang that 200 back out there, I think you have to buy the thing on the open just speculating on the buy.
 
any takers on T. Duncan getting suspended as well? just read about him jumping up during a dif part of the game. is it something legit?
 
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