Gonna try this again
Stat That Stands Out
26.6
That’s that rate at which UCLA has allowed opponents to convert 3rd downs this year. No they haven’t faced the monsters of the midway, but they have faced a Nebby squad who’s offense is clicking at 49% on 3rds even AFTER 3/14 vs the Bruins. And they have faced a Nevada squad that even though they have faced UCLA & FSU STILL converts 50% of their 3rds. Those are 2 offenses that keep the chains moving. Well they stopped moving vs UCLA. If that number were a complete season number it would be the 5th best 3rd down defense of ALL since 2009 (2012 BYU 26.52, 2011 Bama 24.46, 2010 TCU 24.10, 2009 Texas 26.50). Those are 4 of the best defenses of the entire 00’s. Now I wont get ahead of myself, UCLA has played 3gms, but 2 of them are against offense that no matter who you are (save for a few) they will get 40+% on 3rd down. I’m of the camp that says 3rd down% is 1 of the biggest stats (predictive & descriptive) that we have at our disposal. Simply stated control of 3rd down is control of the ball which is control of the game.
On The Ground
The Utes are getting the damn thing done on the ground this year……….Or so it seems. 218.7/gm on the ground are the type of numbers you want to see when you’re on a home dog. But lets examine a bit deeper than just the nameless /faceless aggregate.
- 148 at home vs USU at 3.36ypc in a game you had 6mos to prepare for, mehhh. I’ll call it somewhat above avg but nothing to say oh my gosh.
- 338 8.89ypc at home vs Big Bad ass Weber State!!! Aww shit, they ran the hell over a team of future National Car Rental reps. Grrreat. *sarcasm*
- 260 at home vs Oregon State at 6.67ypc. I’ll call this the best performance. But lets be honest about Oregon St , Utah is the only legit FBS squad Ore St has seen and they’ve played 5gms. This speaks more to the Ore St defense than the Utah run game. But 260 vs a FBS squad from an AQ that aint like Wake or Colorado etc is what it is. Good
- 129 vs BYU in Provo impresses as well, because BYU can put the clamps on folks, especially in Provo.
All this to basically say, yeah Utah is above average running the ball. But they are not special. Butt it is a good enough run game to own some clock & force the opposition to be clock conscious, which feeds into the hands of the Utah defense. I like that.
RB James “bubba” Poole & QB Travis Wilson are the main cogs in the skill dept of the ground game (58% of carries). When you see RB & QB as 2 top rushers you can almost blindly know this is a read option squad. The Utah line is better than last year’s even though they have less experience. It seems that this group has great stamina as they’ve been able to put up their big yds in the 2nd half of most games. Or it could be because most of the defenses they have played lack in depth. Either way the Ute running game is solid if not spectacular and gives them the balance needed to keep the ball & set up some big passing plays.
Defensi vely the Utes put up on the surface great rush defense 3s (118.2ypg), but when examined tell a different story.
- 173yds at 4.4 ypc to Utah St, which isn’t that far off from USU’s performances against some of the worst FBS rush defenses (AF & SjSt). Definitely not something to puff your chest at
- 183 to BYU which is actually pretty good. But when you see that BYU got 550yds vs a Texas squad that apparently was coached to watch the QB run & 309 vs a Mid Tenn St squad no one accuses of being stout it kinda evens out. Still I guess you can say its impressive to hold a team that rushed for 758yds in 2gms to just 183.
- 117 totals rush yds between (FCS) Weber St & Oregon St,. I wont speak on Webere (no need), but Oregon State also had a 10yd rushing game vs Sd St. Yeah, mmmm nuff said. Oregon State doesn’t care much for running lol
So while the numbers still look good, theres some other things that must be accounted for. In the overall though Utah State is a more than worthy run game defense.
UCLA’s ground game cant really be quantified right now. They’ve played terrible run defenses & Its very hard to measure how much is it UCLA being great & how much of it is the comp being shitty. This will actually be the 1st time UCLA has faced a team that is capable of stopping them on the ground. A big concern, but having 3gms & 2 byes already should mean the UCLA running game is rounding in to fine form.
The UCLA running game utilizes the pistol formation & Read Option scheme, think Washington Redskins, Seattle Seahawks, SF 49ers CFB style. The reason I use pro teams as the comparison is Mora. Mora likes to utilize these schemes & sets in the more NFL way as opposed to the NCAA way. What I mean by that is Pro teams expect to have excellent passers & therefore use their running games as more of a component of their passing game & to melt the clock once up. Mora at UCLA loves his running game but is using it not so he can just run run run, he’s using it as a component of an explosive passing game that puts teams down by a ton, then as the hammer to nail the coffin. For instance look at Urban up in Columbus, he’ll use his pass game as a check against you stopping his run game, all the while his primary focus is to just run as much as possible. Mora loves his run, but he wants to complete some passes on you, score in bunches then let his D pin their ears back.
The name Jordon James is the the given title of UCLA’s lil stout thumper/slasher, I call him dynamite. Because at 5’9 194 the guy is explosive. Currently 5th in the nation in rushing, he’s hard to see at 5’9, hard to tackle & hard to catch. Because of this teams must dedicate tons of prep time & keys on him, which opens up everything else they do for their other players. The UCLA line is on the small side for a FBS squad , 1 guard is 276, the center is 275 & a tackle is280. But back to Mora, if you remember his Atlanta days you’ll remember JMJr’s love of the zone blocking run game. Having had the guru Alex Gibbs at both his NFL head coaching stops, Mora learned a smaller more nimble lineman was way more effective at the ZBS that big mauler. He’s carried this over to UCLA where OC Noel Mazzone has also felt the same way. The UCLA line wants to get the DL moving laterally, doubling down linemen, reaching up to LBs and cutting the backside guy. This allows the RB to run & cutback wherever the Defense over pursues. Then you add the QB Hundley using the RO mesh point to also control the feet of back 7 personnel and you get most often JJ 1 on 1 with basically a LB or a safety in space. Its all about flow and creating 1 on1s in the run game.
UCLA defensively on the ground again is hard to determine. I’ll just say they aren’t spectacular but they aint bad. The 3-4 they run, with Mora as the ultimate mastermind is a defense I like. The LBs are fucking monster mutants that clean up just about everything that clears the line. Im very concerned about the yardagae give up to New Mex St, a flat out awful team. Of the 187, 112 came in the 1st half. This is vs a team that cant pass. Maybe UCLA was uninterested, but I don’t like when a team lets a team like NMSt run on them.
Through The Air
UCLA does tremendous damage here. 330yds/gm 68.8% comp 9.1ypa. The skies are not safe when the Bruins show up. Brett Hundley quietly & secretly will end up in the discussion for top available draftable QB by season’s end. The guy looks like an NFL QB, has the arm for it, the size for it, and in today’s NFL the ability to be the running threat for it. Hundley is in my opinion better now than Kaepernick when he came out of Nevada. He’s really that fucking good. The main targets are Shaquille Evans & Devin Fuller. Those guys see a ton of 1 on 1s as teams mainly have to send extra help in the box for the run game. UCLA counters with constrain plays/packaged plays, that basically assert if you attempt to takeaway this play we have built a counter into the play that makes you pay. There may be a zone read of the DT, with a built in screen to the left and a built in slant drive concept to the right. When the LB behind the DT tries to help the read DT he leaves open are to be exploited by the pass. Hundley simply looks at who the DT follows, then where the LB goes and distributes the ball accordingly. Having built NFL style passing concepts on top of this Read Option/Zone Read scheme in the Pistol, Mora/Mazzone have put the defense in an uncomfortable bind. Some NCAA teams make the overcommitted D pay with some small screens some outs etc. UCLA makes you pay like Baylor makes you pay, with BOMBS!
Utah aint bad at the passing game, in fact they are excellent. They gets the damn thing done. I like theor passing game more than I do their running game. 286yds/gm 64.2% comp 9.5ypa. They know what they are doing and get it done. Similar to UCLA its built off the zone read run offense.The difference here is Utah distributes the ball to 4 receivers about equally thus making it harder for defenses to key. This strategy is hard against teams with lil DB depth/talent and no real DL talent/depth. Utah’s trigger man is accurate & skilled enough in the offense to make you pay . This is a n area Utah uses to to wreck a team’s gameplan defensively. Just not enough teams have the talent/depth to cover 3 good WRs & a RB after all that RO play action.
Defensively in the air is where these 2 diverge. Utah has obviously played the better of the passing offenses and in turn has gotten drubbed through the air by them. IF BYU actually had a competent passer who could complete better than 40% of his passes this would even be worse. I have very little faith in the Utah pass D. Its an area I expect UCLA to exploit frequently. Where Utah is able ot make up for poor secondary play is the DLine, they get after it and sack folks. 15 sacks in 5 games, sacking the QB is another great stat I like. The sack is a negative yds play & when its on a 3rd down it’s a drive killer. Beyond that, when you are able to get that many sacks, it means you are putting big pressure on up front. So you also get hurries and misplaced passes, all things that are good for a bad pass D. Utha can use this to disrupt the UCLA pass game.
UCLA on the pass D side is stingy as hell. Less than 60% completions 177yds/gm & 5.5ypa. Teams are basically passing well enough to punt the ball. A lot of that has to do with the pressure the UCLA offense puts on the other team to score. Going down 17pts takes all that Im gonna run the ball shit away. The DBs are both young & new so its actually impressive they haven’t been torched. This again is owed to Mora Jr, he’s a an excellent defensive mind who’s core strengths are coaching the secondary. What really helps this secondary though is the front 7 the LBs are mutants & the DL is packed with 4 & 5 stars. Not many teams can handle an all day dose of 4 & 5 stars bigs for 4qtrs. This will be the key position battle imo. And I like UCLA here a lot more than I like Utah.
What I see
This should be a damned good game. I think Utah provides the best defensive test for UCLA thus far 7 will offensively challenge them as well. I think UCLA’s passing game & overall talent are enough to overcome what should be a hostile environment & tough opponent. Barring some major turnover issues, UCLA’s near 70% 3rd down conversion rate & 26% 3rd down rate against will ultimately be the huge factor as Utah will have more than a few drives that end up back in the hands of the UCLA offense.
UCLA 34 Utah 24
