Silky's Week 13 Diamonds

[Silkydiamonds]

Welcome back ladies, gents, trolls, stalkers, pimps & wimps. When we last left off, I was on an unreal heater and well..........It continued . I believe week 11 was 9-5. Wont speak on week 12 cuz I didnt get to post any here, but those that know me from tweetland knew that I took it easy last week. Played 3gms won 2. So whatevs about that.

Lets get it in:


Nebraska -14 Now 14.5 would still play it to 17 although for less
Tulsa -5 This line seems short as hell, I have it at least 9
LSU -12 Would take up to 14
Akron/Toledo under 64 Akron on a roll of 6 str8 unders, Toledo 4 str8 unders, think it falls just short like 62/63
Cuse -7.5 Never thought Id lay points with Cuse on the road, Im a believer now
UTSA ML +105 Call me crazy, but the Roadrunners win this SU
Clemson -4 Clemson has turned into 1 of the best teams in the country and if not for that 2nd half in Tally would be undefeated, they win by 10. Only the Dabo thing scares me here


Waiting on/Like:

FSU: ​Would still take at 6 but feel this gets to 4 and thats where I wanna take it.
GT: I want 2TDs, think Ill get it and the hook by gametime then I wanna jump on it.

Still got work to do on some other games but thats where im at right now
You know the rules, Hate, Congratulate, Imitate, just Participate!!

:thumbsup:​

 

[J Galt]

Keep it up young buck

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Unc , what it do playboy?

add: No Ill -20: ​Think this line is about a Td short

 

[Play2win]

imma troll and a pimp... and a playa

agree on Noles, GL this week Silk.

 

[booksbestfriend]

Was interested in that GT line as well, but think I am going to lay off. Given the fact that UGA played a glorified scrimmage against the Triple Opt last week in Ga Southern. Just think GT is an autoplay when given double digits and the opposing team only has a week to prepare. In this case, UGA had live action against this offense and a week to scout GT's personel. GL if you play, but think this one screams lay off.

 

[Silkydiamonds]

FYI Terrance Owens is OUT of tonight's game. Austin Dantin will start, Dantin hasnt played in the last 4gms, hasnt thrown a pass since 10/6 and has only thrown 32 passes all season (25 in gm1 vs Zona). I suspect some game rust, which helps my under. The line has dropped a point to 17.5 in the last 20mins and may hit 17. The O/U has dropped all day.

 

[dilaudid8]

silky gl my man

 

[HUNT]

Shittin diamonds

 

[Marsski]

Good luck Silk...Not much opinion on your games...lean your way on Clemson and Rambling Wreck

 

[Elbutre88]

Good luck brother. Glad to be back

 

[Marlo]

do it big this week Silk

 

[Aztec4Life]

With ya on LSU this week, Silky.

Good luck as always bro!

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Was interested in that GT line as well, but think I am going to lay off. Given the fact that UGA played a glorified scrimmage against the Triple Opt last week in Ga Southern. Just think GT is an autoplay when given double digits and the opposing team only has a week to prepare. In this case, UGA had live action against this offense and a week to scout GT's personel. GL if you play, but think this one screams lay off.

Its a risk,Im just hoping for more than 14. I actually work it out to a closer game than most think

silky gl my man

My man GL to you to D8

Shittin diamonds

Thats why the damn shitter stays clogged up, now I know lol

Good luck Silk...Not much opinion on your games...lean your way on Clemson and Rambling Wreck

GL MAC sensei, I know it flies in the face of convention but I like each ACC team vs their SEC counterpart, 2 to win SU

Good luck brother. Glad to be back

Feels so good to be back home

do it big this week Silk

Thanks bro

With ya on LSU this week, Silky.

Good luck as always bro!

You too as well bro. We have limited opportunities left to take this money. Lets get it

 

[jdoggoakley]

Florida now getting 8-1/2, but I heard that Driskell is going to start. Think I'm on UF with that many points - know you leaned FSU at -6 and was hoping for 4. Thoughts?
keep up the great work Silky!
J

 

[Silkydiamonds]

U gotta take the points at over a TD. Now UF having an inept offense is huge! Both teams have a D but 1 team has an offense. This game at 8.5 is inflated from a line perspective, it's saying FSU would be favored by almost a FG in the swamp. The true line should be 4-6, but do I want my money on Driskel pulling the game out on the road vs this Defense?

some sharp folks will take more than the TD pts wait till/if it comes 6 or less then give the pts.

 

[jdoggoakley]

agreed. Thanks for the response and keep it rolling!

 

[cudder]

good luck silk!... not on that fsu game tho

 

[MrMulligan]

Like your Clemson, GT & TTech picks, as well as, 'Cuse and NIU.

Would like your opinion on some rivalry/situational lines and teams that appear to be moving in opposite directions which I think provide value...

ISU ML, Oregon St +9.5, Okie Lite +7, MTSU -2.5, Miss. State ML and A&M tt

Thanks and GL, Mr. Silky Diamond.




Oh yea, f*ck Free Shoes U ... :tiphat:

 

[Aztec4Life]

Want to join you on Cuse bro. Only thing that worries me is two straight roadies on a short week. But it looks like they've finally got it together, winning four of their last five. You think they shut down the Temple running game enough to win by a TD or more?

 

[WikiWiki]

Akron/Toledo under 64 Akron on a roll of 6 str8 unders, Toledo 4 str8 unders, think it falls just short like 62/63

Hard to argue with a majority of your card. Keep the winning rolling.

Can you explain why you bet under 64 if you expected it to land 62/63? It is the only total on your card. Does that mean every other game is totaled within a half point of what you expect the outcome to be? It is really confusing me. Congrats on winning that incidentally.

 

[twinkie13]

I almost feel like a pause is necessary for the LSU game. The site was down but if someone could pull what I said was essentially," Look for LSU to cover vs Miss St and then vs Ole Miss will be life or death...take Piss"

LSu to me is playin some serious ball right now. The Ole Miss game is the real rivalry...it seems like others like Bama and Fla are it, bit this one is the realest....Ole Miss game I mean...Since 2002 I think LSU has covered 2??? Someone look. I remember I was on the bad end of a LSU fave play that my homeboy talked me in to.....

Anyway....This game gonna be in Fayetville. First one for LSU since 1992 I think(again if I am wrong someone let me know_)

Gonna be a tough game. LSU still has tons to play for, but early game after Turkey day in Fay

Silk Im not a fan of this play....not that Im gonna be on LSU, but just my 2 cents

LSU SHOULD roll em....I do not wanna talk u off it tho...just some friendly heads up......see what the line does

cant hurt bro

any thoughts on USC)kiffin)

 

[E.T.G.]

You cant be one of the best teams in the country with one of the worst defenses.

FSU crushed them 2nd half because the defensive staff adjusted to the xbox offense


On the other hand, Shaw sucks on the road and he will never beat an athletic defense ( uf and lsu) ( same reason johnny football was irrelevant vs these 2) but clem is just bad on that side of the ball so it plays to shaw's strength.

Cant wait for game but i think it plays out like Oregon / Stan

Ball control + physical d = disrupt No huddle offense



GL

 

[Judge Smails]

Happy Thanksgiving, Sir Silky!
BOL on all your plays, and please, please, please can I get a Florida loss so those over-hyped swamp things can get out of some good teams' way.

Peace, brother!

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Happy Thanksgiving, Sir Silky!
BOL on all your plays, and please, please, please can I get a Florida loss so those over-hyped swamp things can get out of some good teams' way.

Peace, brother!

I hope so, but UF got A LOT to play for and a TON of revenge.Game kinda scares me, been saying it all year. Good luck to you as well bro

You cant be one of the best teams in the country with one of the worst defenses.

FSU crushed them 2nd half because the defensive staff adjusted to the xbox offense


On the other hand, Shaw sucks on the road and he will never beat an athletic defense ( uf and lsu) ( same reason johnny football was irrelevant vs these 2) but clem is just bad on that side of the ball so it plays to shaw's strength.

Cant wait for game but i think it plays out like Oregon / Stan

Ball control + physical d = disrupt No huddle offense



GL

I could be completely wrong on it, but I just see 2 ways of this playing out. If its a shootout SoCar wont win and Clem will put on extra points for emphasis. If its a close 1 it could fall either way, but with Clem Im getting the more polished QB with the better weapons.

With SoCar it all comes down to the defense, and getting Clem off the field. if Clem is able to sustain drives and stay uptempo they negate SoCar's Def and then put the game back into the hands of the weaker aspect of the Gamecock's team the Offense.

Where SoCar has to attack Clem is by keeping the Clem offense off the field and the Clem defense on the field. That means Shaw MUST have a good game, he has to own 3rd down passing. I just dont feel confident he will.

I almost feel like a pause is necessary for the LSU game. The site was down but if someone could pull what I said was essentially," Look for LSU to cover vs Miss St and then vs Ole Miss will be life or death...take Piss"

LSu to me is playin some serious ball right now. The Ole Miss game is the real rivalry...it seems like others like Bama and Fla are it, bit this one is the realest....Ole Miss game I mean...Since 2002 I think LSU has covered 2??? Someone look. I remember I was on the bad end of a LSU fave play that my homeboy talked me in to.....

Anyway....This game gonna be in Fayetville. First one for LSU since 1992 I think(again if I am wrong someone let me know_)

Gonna be a tough game. LSU still has tons to play for, but early game after Turkey day in Fay

Silk Im not a fan of this play....not that Im gonna be on LSU, but just my 2 cents

LSU SHOULD roll em....I do not wanna talk u off it tho...just some friendly heads up......see what the line does

cant hurt bro

any thoughts on USC)kiffin)

Im already in at 12 but good to at least get some LSU perspective on it. I think it comes down to turnovers. While they arent predictable they are telling. Arky is -1.5/gm in TO margin & LSU is +1.2/gm. Leopards dont change their spots or I should say Tigers dont change their stripes . LSU will cause Arky to turn it over. LSU wont be gangbusters explosive but they will be effective and move the ball down the field and allow their defense to play. Just so happens that what Arky does best on O, LSU destroys on Defense.....Passing game.When a team like LSU gets up 10+pts and forces a team like Arky to be 1 dimensional its a HUGE advantage to LSU. They just pin their ears back and attack.

Hard to argue with a majority of your card. Keep the winning rolling.

Can you explain why you bet under 64 if you expected it to land 62/63? It is the only total on your card. Does that mean every other game is totaled within a half point of what you expect the outcome to be? It is really confusing me. Congrats on winning that incidentally.

I was gonna write a long explanation, but its really simple. I worked the game out as a 9td game (consider 2 FGs as TD to which the XP goes to the advantage of the Under Player so 8TDs +2FGs =9TDs to me with a point I can keep). From there with the info I work on/with its a probable vs possible deal. It was PROBABLE that these 2 teams would max out at 9TDs it was POSSIBLE they both went nuts. Probable wins more often than possible. This is the abridged version but yeah basically it gives you the gist.

Want to join you on Cuse bro. Only thing that worries me is two straight roadies on a short week. But it looks like they've finally got it together, winning four of their last five. You think they shut down the Temple running game enough to win by a TD or more?

Cuse could certainly give up the cookies on the ground, see USF & Cincy games and the 2 straight roadies on short rest aplies as well. But Temple's ineptitude in passing defense will allow Cuse to complete a high percentage at a healthy YPA. Which means to me at least points on the board. When Temple has to even consider passing 1st game over. Temple HAS to be dominant in the run, Cuse need only be successful enough in stopping it that they make Temple pass on some of those 3rd downs.

Like your Clemson, GT & TTech picks, as well as, 'Cuse and NIU.

Would like your opinion on some rivalry/situational lines and teams that appear to be moving in opposite directions which I think provide value...

ISU ML, Oregon St +9.5, Okie Lite +7, MTSU -2.5, Miss. State ML and A&M tt

Thanks and GL, Mr. Silky Diamond.




Oh yea, f*ck Free Shoes U ... :tiphat:

Ha my man Mully lol, umm the only game I have done more than cursory work on is MTSU, at under a FG its ok to me. I dont wanna lay more than FG in that rivalry but dont want less than a FG with the dog.

good luck silk!... not on that fsu game tho

Nervous over here man, walking on pins & needles. Should be a good one, whichever team wins is a very good team & the loser aint too damn bad either. When's the last time FSU/UF had 2 10-1 teams?

agreed. Thanks for the response and keep it rolling!

No prob bro, thanks for popping in

 

[Silkydiamonds]

​Adding: Ball St -7

 

[Silkydiamonds]

​Adding: GT +14.5

 

[bet10heinekens]

Silky = $$$$makingmachine

 

[Silkydiamonds]

​Adding: North Texas/WKY over 51

 

[Aztec4Life]

Went ahead and pulled the trigger on Cuse -6 bro, so I'm now with you on LSU and the Orange for a full Unit on each.

I'm curious bro...any thoughts on Cinci -13 today? I'm tempted to take a half Unit stab on the Bearcats. USF has been decimated by injuries, and are down to their 3rd String QB. I'm thinkin that with the Bearcats bein solid against the run, they should handle the Bulls. Whatcha think Silky? Am I missing something here?

As always, I appreciate your feedback bro, and that you take the time to respond. You're a damn good capper homie!

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Tec Im glad you said something about Cincy, Im really about to pull the trigger there and you put out some of the reasons. I want to run through it again and see if I find something that stands out as anegative on Cincy or a positive on USF to deter me. But Right now my work says this should be around 17.

​adding: AzSt +3

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Fuck it, Im pulling the trigger

adding: Cincy -13.5

No need to buy the hook, at lest to me. Either Cincy hits this 1 by 2tds or more or this is a 10pt or less game. Point being, it aint gonna depend on 2 FGs

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Everything in 1 neat lil place so you can find it

Cincy -13.5
AzSt +3
North Texas/WKY over 51
GT +14.5
Ball St -7
No Ill -20
Nebraska -14
Tulsa -5
LSU -12
Akron/Toledo under 64
Cuse -7.5
UTSA ML +105
Clemson -4

Still waiting on FSU to come back under a TD, shoulda took it when it was there but got greedy and wanted to wait out a 4. Yeah right lol

 

[bloodhound]

Everything in 1 neat lil place so you can find it

Cincy -13.5
AzSt +3
North Texas/WKY over 51
GT +14.5
Ball St -7
No Ill -20
Nebraska -14
Tulsa -5
LSU -12
Akron/Toledo under 64
Cuse -7.5
UTSA ML +105
Clemson -4

GL Silky

 

[dilaudid8]

silky gl this week let's make that money

 

[Aztec4Life]

Glad you added the Cinci play bro! I ended up going 3-2 today, so that one was the difference maker for me. Thanks again for all the feedback homie!

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Glad you added the Cinci play bro! I ended up going 3-2 today, so that one was the difference maker for me. Thanks again for all the feedback homie!

I wanna thank you, I had totally forgot about the game and you made me take a second look. So thank you bro

silky gl this week let's make that money

Thanks D8, lets get that money

GL Silky

Thanks Blood, lets get this cash

 

[Aztec4Life]

I wanna thank you, I had totally forgot about the game and you made me take a second look. So thank you bro

No problem bro! That's why we're all here anyway...to help eachother beat the books and make some money!

 

[Silkydiamonds]

adding: Vandy -10.5

 

[Silkydiamonds]

adding: SdSt -7.5

 

[Zeke]

The dreaded hook, cost me the fucking Ball St game yesterday. Local's lines suck for faves but way more convenient for payouts than the on-line shit.

GL today bud & thanks for all the input, let's stick it to the man.

 

[Silkydiamonds]

#1 congrats to UF them boys balled & get my respect
#2 I shoulda listened to ETG & Twink
#3 I'm still on a fucking heater 8-6-1 57% week 13

Vandy -10.5 WIN
SdSt -7.5 WIN
Cincy -13.5 WIN
AzSt +3 WIN
North Texas/WKY over 51 LOSS
GT +14.5 LOSS
Ball St -7 PUSH
No Ill -20 WIN
Nebraska -14 LOSS
Tulsa -5 LOSS
LSU -12 LOSS
Akron/Toledo under 64 WIN
Cuse -7.5 WIN
UTSA ML +105 WIN
Clemson -4 LOSS