Sentry TOC Discussion Thread

Weather:

79-82 all week

10-15 first two days
5-10 over the weekend.

This might be the lightest winds for this tourney I can remember.
 
I put a unit on Reed at 35-1. Simply a value play. No reason in my mind he should be this low in a small field. T3 a month ago at Hero in another small/strong field event. He’s played more recently and better than most of these guys.
 
I know it's not a perfect correlation, and there is some bias inherent, but guys who play well at Augusta tend to play well at Kapalua. Not a lot of flat lies at either place
 
Leishman at +3000 has my attention, but if the winds are down (relatively), I think a lot of his advantage is reduced. Finau, Cam Smith and Spieth on my radar as well
 
Outside of the usuals, I think Billy Ho 70-1 is worth a stab, he's won some tough fields before. Also threw a few bucks on Phil 150-1. This course looks like a lot of flip wedges into greens....he could rack up some birdies.

With the low winds projected this will be a birdie fest....25 under might be needed.
 
aplous said:
Outside of the usuals, I think Billy Ho 70-1 is worth a stab, he's won some tough fields before. Also threw a few bucks on Phil 150-1. This course looks like a lot of flip wedges into greens....he could rack up some birdies.

With the low winds projected this will be a birdie fest....25 under might be needed.
Click to expand...
I love when low winds still entail 20 mph gusts but you might be right, hope it doesn't turn into a pitch 'n putt
 
For me

Im +2200
Collin top 5 +180
X top 5 +230 3*
Collin top 10 -133
X top 10 -110
 
Pumped for the new season, played this course back in 14’, Hawaii is just awesome. Goal this year is to limit my 3 ball plays..just so enticing at +money and being able to parlay.

Round 1-
Morikawa, Cantley day 1 leader +1600
Morikawa, Cantley top 5, day 1 +275

1 unit each
 
Just took Hovland 1st round leader +400 before the big guns go off and the afternoon wind does what it does

Figure that's a good number on a good player with intangibles in my favor
 
Easier to do off the move, I actually didn't want to play but we did it and it wasn't cheap. Had a 5 footer to get 100, was only my 3rd round of the year in 2012 but not replaceable. Ton of Crown and beer, evidenced on the last few holes lol
Kapalua.jpg
 
JT just isn’t clicking on all cylinders right now..it’ll come around as the season progresses.
Round 2

Reed +150 over JT
Billy Hoyle -125 over Lee

1 unit each

I wrote off Cantley plays yesterday only to watch him catch fire on the back 9, had a chance to tie for first with a birdie on 18th, outright lead with an eagle. Needed him to get up and down from just off the green, ends up with par.. Birdies on 18th were almost a given all day yesterday.
 
Going to have some Friday fun

Hole 11, Fat Reed or JT to make better than par +333
 
Hole 14: Fat Reed and/or JT to go under par -400 big

Sorry this number is still low, it's 290 yards. Neither making at least birdie burns the cash and I'd play it again immediately
 
Hole 1: Rahm/Cantlay either under par +163
Hole 2: Rahm/Cantlay either under par +300

One birdie out of either on the first two holes gets cash, sign me up
 
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