Semis, Finals and 3rd place Discussion

Yeah hard to back multiple goals in this one , think it will probably be fairly tight , if somehow Croatia could find a somewhat early goal and go up that would make this game really really interesting
 
3rd place games seem to be high-scoring, BEL being one of the teams with all their talent only furthers that notion.

ENG, on the other hand, does not have the attacking talent and part of that was displayed today after they scored in the 5th minute and hardly did anything the rest of the night. Kane is great from the penalty spot, but he could be on a milk carton for the rest of his performances this tournament besides the late goal vs Tunisia. Sterling has the pace, but he couldn't finish a meal. It appears the team will need set pieces to score, but they've done well with them all tournament long and nearly had two today. Trippier's was great, though i can't imagine he plays on Saturday, and Stones got robbed by a man on the post.

BEL has all the attacking talent and should be a clear favorite, but I have no idea what the lineup will look like. Martinez probably still wants to win, but I do wonder how the clubs handle game three as I expect they have some impact on playing time. Lukaku is in the race for the Golden Boot, so he's gotta be in there along with Kane. KDB, Hazard, I have no clue. The youngsters will probably get on the field, which could mean Batshuayi and Rashford.

Really hard to guess a line here without lineups, but a rotating BEL was favored vs ENG and i'm not sure ENG has done enough to change that opinion even by nearly reaching the final. Meanwhile, BEL knocked out the tournament favorite and narrowly lost to the likely winner. I'm expecting BEL -0.5
 
Deschamps isn’t going to change tactics too much now that he’s gotten his team into the finals. Hell... Giroud played like a defender > striker against BEL. I’m not saying the Frogs are going to park the bus in this match but I don’t see much offense besides counters and set pieces given up.

I was a bit concerned with dead legs from Croatia after their Russia win, but they never gave up even after going down early. Much props to their coach for inspiring their players to keep chugging.

On paper, France should win. They’ve also got a GK in Hugo Lloris that’s been absolutely phenomenal. I think it was @GWarner27 or @braves who mentioned the save against Uruguay in the 1H of the quarters, that right there changed the complexion of that game and tournament.

Much props to both countries for making it to the final.

Holding a small +900 Croatia ticket..

Leaning towards 1H Under though. Hoping to see a tight game and late winner from Croatia.
 
Yeah hard to back multiple goals in this one , think it will probably be fairly tight , if somehow Croatia could find a somewhat early goal and go up that would make this game really really interesting

early goals seem to change every game. It's honestly a race to 1 no matter how flukey that first is
 
@BetCrimes1984 no worries on the GK error, i just don't think we will ever have a reasonable idea about player mentalities unless you know them personally. Capping them is a waste of time, players get nervous it's a fact of life.

Coaches can't give players WC final experience, teammates can hardly do it. The Astros couldn't beat the Rangers until they did it, that unlocks everything
 
i just don't think we will ever have a reasonable idea about player mentalities unless you know them personally.


As a Red Sox fan from 1997 I may not have known any RS player personally, but I didn't have think very hard to guess how they felt playing a certain team. No matter what player donned the pinstripes, which way the final (playoff relevant) result would go at the end of the day didn't take a rocket scientist to work out. It's hardly a stretch to think that the players themselves share some of the same feelings when facing an opponent who has the wood on them, something along the lines of "fuck not these guys, here we go again". One RS player after a loss betrayed the truth when he stated the Yankees were his 'daddy': who gives such ammunition to their opponent, unless they're just so sick & tired of always coming second to them that they're at the point where they just don't care, because they feel that supplying such ammunition isn't going to make any difference anyway. It's not a question of if the players feel it, it's a matter of how prevalent is that feeling. Of course the RS broke that hoodoo in the end, but significantly they had to lose (more than) one before they actually ended up winning one. Whatever one thinks of my prognostications, you can't deny the French having the wood on the Croats (and this dates back to games involving Yugoslavia & their Croat contributors re that 80's Platini-generation). But I'm aware you're not into historical stats, so each to his own.

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I've some historical WC stats to post in due course for those who do care about them, but I'll be on France and goals to be scored in various ways for this final. What's about to happen here for me is what's eventually going to happen to Kevin Anderson after beating Federer 13-11 in the 5th set at (of all places) Wimbledon. It's called a letdown off a peak performance (and by dint of having played 3 x 30 min ET periods, the Croats have played the equivalent of 4 knockout games prior to this final as well as endured 2 emotionally taxing penalty shootouts: it's just nuts to expect that kind of output to continue while at the same time avoiding experiencing a letdown, as if they were robots instead of being human). England was horrible offensively from the run of play throughout this WC (a huge % of their goals came from set pieces), thus they failed to kill Croatian hopes off in the 1H when a couple of golden run of play chances presented themselves. The French have demonstrated a ruthlessness from the run of play that England (& Russia & Denmark) lacked.

As I see it, in this final fatigue meets one opponent with the wood on the other meets 'just happy to be here' meets direct big tournament final experience vs. utter inexperience. A 2/3/4-1 final score is my expectation. Anyway, my other thoughts will follow my posting the stats that underpin them.
 
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I've some historical WC stats to post in due course for those who do care about them, but I'll be on France and goals to be scored in various ways for this final. What's about to happen here for me is what's eventually going to happen to Kevin Anderson after beating Federer 13-11 in the 5th set at (of all places) Wimbledon. It's called a letdown off a peak performance (and by dint of having played 3 x 30 min ET periods, the Croats have played the equivalent of 4 knockout games prior to this final as well as endured 2 emotionally taxing penalty shootouts: it's just nuts to expect that kind of output to continue while at the same time avoiding experiencing a letdown, as if they were robots instead of being human). England was horrible offensively from the run of play throughout this WC (a huge % of their goals came from set pieces), thus they failed to kill Croatian hopes off in the 1H when a couple of golden run of play chances presented themselves. The French have demonstrated a ruthlessness from the run of play that England (& Russia & Denmark) lacked.

As I see it, in this final fatigue meets one opponent with the wood on the other meets 'just happy to be here' meets direct big tournament final experience vs. utter inexperience. A 2/3/4-1 final score is my expectation. Anyway, my other thoughts will follow my posting the stats that underpin them.

I have a very similar take BC. Of course I posted in the wrong thread. Looking forward to the stats!

It somehow reminds me of the Euro 2012 final between Italy and Spain.
A superior team then Spain now France against a good team but running on empty. Italy reached that point early in the 2nd half down 0-2 with 10 men due to injury. I think once Croatia goes down this one is over.
 
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y'all are really gonna die on the run out of gas mountain? Off a taxing penalty shootout, shouldn't that have happened against the doping home team? Or the youngest team in the knockout stage with all the speed coming in off a blowout victory?

The team is fit, Vrsaljko looked great despite nobody thinking he'd play and Strinic seemed to be the only injury concern (and he's gone down in almost every match).

They clearly weren't gassed making no substitutions until ET, y'all should be careful because confirmation bias is harmful to a bankroll
 
y'all are really gonna die on the run out of gas mountain? Off a taxing penalty shootout, shouldn't that have happened against the doping home team? Or the youngest team in the knockout stage with all the speed coming in off a blowout victory?

The team is fit, Vrsaljko looked great despite nobody thinking he'd play and Strinic seemed to be the only injury concern (and he's gone down in almost every match).

They clearly weren't gassed making no substitutions until ET, y'all should be careful because confirmation bias is harmful to a bankroll
Good post.
 
and to Pedro's "the Yankees are my daddy" comment, that's completely out of context. IIRC it was during the season off a couple bad starts vs NYY

BC I've always loved your posts for the novelty of them, but the recent generalizations you're making from them are troubling.

CRO may get beaten by FRA because FRA is the most talented team in the tournament, but it's not because of a loss in their first tournament as an independent nation when none of these players were involved. FRA has the experience of a final from the Euro, and that's probably significant, but that won't win this match on the biggest stage of all
 
y'all are really gonna die on the run out of gas mountain? Off a taxing penalty shootout, shouldn't that have happened against the doping home team? Or the youngest team in the knockout stage with all the speed coming in off a blowout victory?

The team is fit, Vrsaljko looked great despite nobody thinking he'd play and Strinic seemed to be the only injury concern (and he's gone down in almost every match).

They clearly weren't gassed making no substitutions until ET, y'all should be careful because confirmation bias is harmful to a bankroll

I don’t think you can totally discount it , 3 games in 8 days is a lot and they certainly were pushed harder than France has been
 
I don’t think you can totally discount it , 3 games in 8 days is a lot and they certainly were pushed harder than France has been

This is it though...

Cannot be discounted, whatsoever.

I do not want to parallel sports but you can find reasons both ways for the tired factor.

I'd cap the game regular then go from there, in all honesty.
 
I called the 'tired' narrative getting beat to death and it will prolly push me away from doing anything stupid pre-game so I am fine with that.
 
They’ve played an entire game more than France when you take into account ET.

I agree it was overused vs England , but it’s something to consider for sure .
 
They’ve played an entire game more than France when you take into account ET.

I agree it was overused vs England , but it’s something to consider for sure .
They also have been through a lot and have won in several different ways.

I was rooting for England slightly yesterday but the more I think about it... there is no other team I'd want in this final right now that this Croatia bunch. I cap tiredness in other sports but I certainly will not let it be my main thing in an opportunity that comes around, at best, every 4 years.

But as I said, this narrative will go on for the next several days...so we'll let it play out and I'll concentrate on the 'other game' for now.
 
Most actual marathoners take 3-4 weeks off from training after running one (think the Kenyans) and look at how much these cats have run in the last week and a half...also remember, they have to have skills above and beyond running to win

That said, I do think the adrenaline push will be real. Just not crazy confident in Mario or Luka after yesterday, they were toast to the point they got taken off even with the potential of penalties in play. That's not normal, they were exhausted.

Nice thing for Croats is France speed should be somewhat neutralized due to this same factor (not that I'm comparing time played, just a bunch of play in a short time in general) and Croatia should again control the midfield, important as it gets for me. France have pressure, no doubt...and worse, they dominate in forward presence but those guys tend to emulate pressure more than anyone.

Very interesting match, like capping a psych evaluation
 
I'm really confused as to how many hotel rooms and the service Doha will even have

How can this even exist?
 
if we were using PRs in this sport, i think it's fair to downgrade CRO a small amount for fatigue but that's it.

I'm dimming my expectations, but getting half a goal is probably enough for me to play when two out of three scenarios are a winner
 
y'all are really gonna die on the run out of gas mountain? Off a taxing penalty shootout, shouldn't that have happened against the doping home team? Or the youngest team in the knockout stage with all the speed coming in off a blowout victory?

I'm not talking physically, I'm talking emotionally. When athletes come out and deliver a flat performance, their 'lack of fitness' isn't leading the way. The body follows the mind. Flat performances are grounded in a lack of emotional energy to give. I'm fully expecting a flat Croatian performance. And it doesn't matter what you want from yourself mentally when you're emotionally flat. Thoughts can't generate emotional energy out of nowhere when it isn't present. If France score the 1st goal, and do so inside the first 25 mins, you watch how quickly Croatian heads drop & lethargy sets in. They MUST score 1st to have any hope in hell of competing in this final.

Speaking to your two rhetorical questions:

Russia's penalty taking was fucking horrible: I've never seen a worse collection of attempts (though I have seen worse individual attempts). That's the sole reason they lost that QF. Their most clinical, unstoppable attempt I believe was delivered by their 4th taker, a bald headed guy. If they had all been as nasty as his, Russia would've played in the SF.

England's players, well the first 4 minutes of the vid below sums up well for me why England blew their golden chance against a vulnerable opponent...
 
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Why would a team lack emotional energy in a final? What‘s the magic number of games that they have to play before „running out?“ why didn‘t it happen against England?

The letdown scenario typically happens when a team pulls off a huge upset and then plays a weak team. Like two years ago Titans upset the Chiefs then „fell flat“ in Jacksonville

In a final i can only imagine total adrenaline. And they have nothing to lose, it‘s France that‘s expected to atone for 2016. And when both teams are on the ropes, isn‘t Croatia the team that will benefit from having been on the ropes in every knockout game?
 
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Why would a team lack emotional energy in a final? What‘s the magic number of games that they have to play before „running out?“ why didn‘t it happen against England?

The letdown scenario typically happens when a team pulls off a huge upset and then plays a weak team. Like two years ago Titans upset the Chiefs then „fell flat“ in Jacksonville

In a final i can only imagine total adrenaline. And they have nothing to lose, it‘s France that‘s expected to atone for 2016. And when both teams are on the ropes, isn‘t Croatia the team that will benefit from having been on the ropes in every knockout game?

Why would any athlete come out flat for a big match? It's a big match, they "should" be up for it. Yet it happens all the time. There are far more scenarios for letdowns than what you mention here. Why was England fatigued in the 2h against Croatia? They had no mental/emotional or physical excuse to be (they were up 1-0 in a SF with a WC final spot looming), yet they were/played like it. Cumulative experiences take their toll, athletes are human beings not robots. But if you disagree with my take, fine. I'm not betting your money, you are.
 
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btw, I have no idea why the quote function includes text that presumably you decided not to post, because I don't see that other stuff in the post I'm quoting.
 
Why would any athlete come out flat for a big match? It's a big match, they "should" be up for it. Yet it happens all the time. There are far more scenarios for letdowns than what you mention here. Why was England fatigued in the 2h against Croatia? They had no mental/emotional or physical excuse to be (they were up 1-0 in a SF with a WC final spot looming), yet they were/played like it. Cumulative experiences take their toll, athletes are human beings not robots. But if you disagree with my take, fine. I'm not betting your money, you are.

You said yourself I believe that they scored too early for their own good? They played like their number one goal was to protect their lead and when they gave up the lead they lost all momentum.
Chill, we‘re just discussing.
 
Yes, that early goal led to their negative play in the 2h which is partly what allowed Croatia back into the game, but that early goal doesn't fully explain why England fatigued when the other team had the greater excuse to suffer that particular fate. That video beyond the first 4 mins (but ignoring all the BS Roy Keane says) goes quite in-depth about what those pundits perceived happened to England. It's worth listening to imo, because what they discuss are things that comparatively France will not suffer for, at least as I see it.
 
I have a very similar take BC. Of course I posted in the wrong thread. Looking forward to the stats!

It somehow reminds me of the Euro 2012 final between Italy and Spain.
A superior team then Spain now France against a good team but running on empty. Italy reached that point early in the 2nd half down 0-2 with 10 men due to injury. I think once Croatia goes down this one is over.

Now that I've watched a youtube vid of that event to jog my memory, I recall my pre-final feelings. I gave Italy a shot (put a small bet on them to score 1st remembering rightly), and they were horrible (completely at odds with their previous SF performance. Also, Italy had played Spain to a 1-1 draw in group play, so they entered that final with real expectations of being Spain's equal, unlike here for Croatia). Like the comparison.:shake:
 
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It’s very common especially in match of that magnitude that when you score and go up early that you tend to sit back , unfortunately and Teed touched on this yesterday England’s lack of a ball controlling and creative midfield presence really was a disadvantage for them in this game ( and this is what everyone talked about prior to the tournament as being a weakness ) Kane was essentially playing as a #10 in this game

I know the odds didn’t suggest it , but maybe Croatia was just the better team .

I think England has some undisclosed “knocks “ with some of their players . Kane and Deli Ali regressed.

Which is why I’d be careful about 3rd place games bets prior to lineups announced , the teams are t going look the same
 
Not sure all the banter but make no mistake, the pressure is squarely on the French

Does that offset the mileage Croatia have dealt with? Dunno.

But all pressure on France to win Sunday
 
Yes, that early goal led to their negative play in the 2h which is partly what allowed Croatia back into the game, but that early goal doesn't fully explain why England fatigued when the other team had the greater excuse to suffer that particular fate. That video beyond the first 4 mins (but ignoring all the BS Roy Keane says) goes quite in-depth about what those pundits perceived happened to England. It's worth listening to imo, because what they discuss are things that comparatively France will not suffer for, at least as I see it.

Two of those outside of keane are probably the worst pundits in england

Neville the only one worth listening too
 
But all pressure on France to win Sunday

All the (direct & historical) pressure was on the Red Sox down 3-0 in the 04 ALCS, and it didn't matter a jot in the final wash up. Some teams thrive on it, others play like it doesn't exist, others are affected by it. So saying all the pressure is on the French without knowing how they relate to such pressure, is like firing up an air shot. You can't hit a target when you don't know where it is. I do know the Croatian players are human, and I also know repeated draining emotional experiences inevitably take a cumulative toll on human beings, no matter how mature/accomplished they might be psychologically as individuals. So I know where my target is when discussing that aspect of their recent play to this final.

But specifically regarding that pressure on the French. They experienced similar, if not the same, pressure before the '16 final as the favourite on home soil, so they have that experience to draw upon this time round. It can only make things easier (which is not to say easy), and once again that speaks to the nature of the saying you have to lose one in order to win one. The negative experience of losing matures you (or at least it should), giving you the tools to better navigate the next big event you're involved in. The Croatians have a different kind of pressure to deal with: their players are representing their country for the first time in a WC final. They've the subtle pressure of not embarrassing their nation before the world. They know it'll be one thing not to win it (they're not expected to), and quite another to lose it by 4 or 5 goals or worse. Anxiety will not be absent from the range of emotions they'll be dealing with, esp. if they concede an early goal. The moment France grabs the 1st goal (if they do - and just to remind anyone not paying attention, Croatia has conceded first to 3 sides all with inferior attacks to France to this point), all the pressure quickly switches sides.

Between 8:34 & 8:57 on this vid below, Rio Ferdinand talks exactly to having feelings of anxiousness about facing superior teams in big games, and he had such feelings belonging on a team much stronger than this Croatian one...
 
You missed the main point Rio gives there, the issue was they didnt know how to play that way because of the teams they came from, who dominated play

Outside of a few players, modric and rakitic
 
If anything i think croatia is overconfident

Lovren out here today saying hes one of the best defenders in the world

Guy was subbed off in the first half multiple times this year because he was having his pocket picked

Kane almost ended his career in the first 20 minutes of a game at Wembley
 
One more day for France and Belgium in this

England have 2 days off for Saturday match
 
I personally dont think they have a let down mentally, but physically i do think the 2nd half they will tire

Especially in midfield and on the wide players

Croatia has 1 less day and most of their starters ran 30% more than France's

Just look at teams records after midweek champs league games vs fresher squads, and in those cases its vastly superior teams, in this case they are up against a sidei believe have an advantage at 8 of 11 spots on the field

I think 1st half is fine, but if they go down like BC says, i think their legs get a lot heavier post 60-70 mins

Modric has covered the most distance of anyone in the tourney, kante will man mark him snd kantes gas tank will be full... if luka doesnt orchastrate the show, especially that little triangles they have been running on the right wing, croatias options really dwindle down low
 
You missed the main point Rio gives there, the issue was they didnt know how to play that way because of the teams they came from, who dominated play

Outside of a few players, modric and rakitic

Which is what made their opponents better than England in his mind, leading to feelings of anxiousness presenting themselves (I did watch that complete discussion before highlighting that short clip). Whatever the reason that led to him feeling inferior, the fact is he did and consequently feelings of anxiousness followed. It's one thing for me to assert what players might be feeling, it's another to have the words come out of the horse's mouth.

Has any Croatian player (outside of egotism) got any right to think their team is better than their opponent here? They got dumped out of the R16 stage of the 2016 Euros, their French opponent obv. didn't (that's the closest concrete event that can be used as a comparison for an objective answer to that question). If they don't admit to reality, then I can only observe delusion is the enemy of all human beings no matter what endeavour they're partaking in.
 
y'all are really gonna die on the run out of gas mountain? Off a taxing penalty shootout, shouldn't that have happened against the doping home team? Or the youngest team in the knockout stage with all the speed coming in off a blowout victory?

I'm not talking physically, I'm talking emotionally. When athletes come out and deliver a flat performance, their 'lack of fitness' isn't leading the way. The body follows the mind. Flat performances are grounded in a lack of emotional energy to give. I'm fully expecting a flat Croatian performance. And it doesn't matter what you want from yourself mentally when you're emotionally flat. Thoughts can't generate emotional energy out of nowhere when it isn't present. If France score the 1st goal, and do so inside the first 25 mins, you watch how quickly Croatian heads drop & lethargy sets in. They MUST score 1st to have any hope in hell of competing in this final.

Speaking to your two rhetorical questions:

Russia's penalty taking was fucking horrible: I've never seen a worse collection of attempts (though I have seen worse individual attempts). That's the sole reason they lost that QF. Their most clinical, unstoppable attempt I believe was delivered by their 4th taker, a bald headed guy. If they had all been as nasty as his, Russia would've played in the SF.

England's players, well the first 4 minutes of the vid below sums up well for me why England blew their golden chance against a vulnerable opponent...

so the first 4 minutes they talk about ENG being fatigued, odd considering they played thirty minutes less than the opponent? And if you're not able to get up emotionally for the world freakin' cup then you should stick to playing for your club

Imagine just not having the emotion when you're a 3 million person country? I can't.

And to the first goal point, every team is pretty much dead when the first goal is conceded. It's a race to 1, there have been only a handful of comeback wins this entire tournament (if that)
 
I bet Croatia because I think there's value in nearly 4/1 in regulation. I look at this like the NCAAs...France is the better overall team, but sometimes a team gets on a roll in a tourney. Croatia keeps gutting it out and Modric is very impressive. I got a feeling they put one on the board first this time (they haven't the last few games) and France has to chase. Just a hunch. If France goes up early, it could be a woodshed job.
 
Honestly in any game where 1 goal makes all the difference and can win it, you have some pretty serious variance at play.
 
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