SEC Week 7 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 7 games. I will be taking no questions concerning Alabama's loss to Vandy. TIA.

Alabama -21.5/50.5 vs South Carolina
Mizzou -27.5/53.5 vs UMASS
Texas -14/51.5 vs OU (Dallas)
Miss St +33/53.5 @ UGA
Florida +15.5/54.5 @ Tennessee
Ole Miss -2.5/64.5 @ LSU
Vanderbilt +13.5/45.5 @ Kentucky
 
I don't know why there are quotation marks around that, because it's not what he said
 
cubsker said:
Pavia!

He once went to New Mexico's practice facility and pissed on their logo.

Let's get him to NYC.
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That guy is certainly not lacking for confidence. After beating Hugh Freeze twice, I wonder why he try to get him in the portal? AU is 5-1 at worst right now with Pavia at QB
 
Some pretty interesting situational games this weekend.

Do we see bounce backs from Alabama and Tenn?

I think this could be a "get-right " game for UGA.

I'm ready to watch the Alabama fanbase melt when Kentucky holds Vandy to like 10 points and 100 yards rushing

Tell me why I shouldn't be on LSU

I don't know the history of the rivalry real well, but I have to think the underdog, and particularly OU as a dog, has fared pretty well? I know the revenge angle, but UGA on deck for Texas which is a far more important game than this one
 
gps_3 said:
Some pretty interesting situational games this weekend.

Do we see bounce backs from Alabama and Tenn?

I think this could be a "get-right " game for UGA.

I'm ready to watch the Alabama fanbase melt when Kentucky holds Vandy to like 10 points and 100 yards rushing

Tell me why I shouldn't be on LSU

I don't know the history of the rivalry real well, but I have to think the underdog, and particularly OU as a dog, has fared pretty well? I know the revenge angle, but UGA on deck for Texas which is a far more important game than this one
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I bet the underdog every year in the Texas/OU game and will again this year but I have to admit that I think OU sucks.
 
Under in the Horns game. Feels like a repeat of Michigan. 30-13 type outcome.

Ewers typically excels in these type games. On the other hand, putting a freshman QB in that game for OU for the first time is dicey. It's an insane environment. But it didn't impact Caleb Wiliams, for one, so who the hell knows.
 
I'm assuming Colbie Young will not play for UGA for a while, if ever again. I doubt it changes much this weekend, but think that could be a big loss next week against Texas for a team searching for playmaking WR
 
Just kind of realized that aTm is 3-0 in conference and their remaining schedule is:

@ Miss St
LSU
@ South Carolina
@AU
Texas

I'm not saying it's a cake walk, but going 3-2 is definitely possible. We may get 5 or 6 teams at 6-2 in conference play and have to go way down the tiebreaker list
 
It wasn't very long ago Billy Napier was a dead man walking. What would a road win over Tennessee do for him, his job security, and the Florida program? We've seen some upsets in the SEC this season for sure....could this week's upset be the Gators over the Vols? I'm seeing some trends, although sample size is small, Billy Napier is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS as a road dog after his team has won and covered ATS last two games. Josh Heupel is 5-0 SU and but only 2-3 ATS as a home fav coming home after a road loss.....however, those games did not include any opponent that he lost to in their previous matchup. His records are 0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS when I put a previous matchup loss in my queries therefore this is the first time a Heupel-coached team has been in this situation. Lastly, this is a terrible spot for Tennessee as they have Bama on deck.....let me repeat...Bama is on deck. 😬
 
JROCK1966 said:
It wasn't very long ago Billy Napier was a dead man walking. What would a road win over Tennessee do for him, his job security, and the Florida program? We've seen some upsets in the SEC this season for sure....could this week's upset be the Gators over the Vols? I'm seeing some trends, although sample size is small, Billy Napier is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS as a road dog after his team has won and covered ATS last two games. Josh Heupel is 5-0 SU and but only 2-3 ATS as a home fav coming home after a road loss.....however, those games did not include any opponent that he lost to in their previous matchup. His records are 0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS when I put a previous matchup loss in my queries therefore this is the first time a Heupel-coached team has been in this situation. Lastly, this is a terrible spot for Tennessee as they have Bama on deck.....let me repeat...Bama is on deck. 😬
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Florida schedule the rest of the year is still absolutely brutal.
 
B.A.R. said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1843668268026081467




Thoughts?
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That guy is getting a ton of play in the Alabama message board circles this week. He may or may not be right, but he is an Alabama-hating UGA fan for reference. He is certainly in a better mood here than his analysis the week before when he called Alabama lucky to be leading at halftime against UGA. There were a whole host of things that went wrong for Alabama's defense last Saturday, and he kind of cherry picks some film for his video, both the short one posted and the longer one on YT. Clearly there were some schematic deficiencies, but it is absolutely true that 4-5 of our starters had their worst games in an Alabama uniform on Saturday. Could be coaching, but I imagine it's a combination of a lot of little things. Not to mention Pavia played out of his mind ala Stephen Garcia in 2010
 
twinkie13 said:
which one do you go with if it’s not scheme?
Pushed around by a bunch of nerds?
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Pretty much. There were certainly some schematic issues, but bottom line is that Vandy went out and got it. This is a pretty damn good Vandy offense, but the players and coaches should be embarrassed. I don't know if it was UGA hangover, arrogance, or both, but Vandy took it to them and they got beat. Some really bad turnovers and penalties on offense contributed as well. Pretty much everything went right for Vanderbilt. That's how upsets of this magnitude happen
 
I am leaning toward the over in Tuscaloosa. The players and coaches are all saying the right things, but I'll have to see the defense play better to believe it. If SC can get to 14 points, I think Alabama can definitely score in the high 30s or more
 
gps_3 said:
I am leaning toward the over in Tuscaloosa. The players and coaches are all saying the right things, but I'll have to see the defense play better to believe it. If SC can get to 14 points, I think Alabama can definitely score in the high 30s or more
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Agree, hadn't paid much attention to it initially because was focusing on side and how to account for Bama's upset to Vandy, but the more I look at it, the more it makes sense. I think Bama's offense can get theirs against pretty much anyone and while S Carolina's defensive front is solid, I'm confident in Bama OL and Milroe. On the other side, with Sellers and Sanders, I think S Carolina offense can give Bama defense enough problems to contribute to the over.
 
Spent a little time late yesterday going through Vols performances off a loss under Heupel. They are 8-3 ATS, which is pretty common knowledge (I've seen it elsewhere). However, 1H they are even better - 10-1 ATS (the only loss being vs UGA as a dog last year). I'm especially interested in 1H this week with the Bama game on deck for UT. Wish I'd done this work before 1H -7' moved to -125 but there are so many hours in the day.
 
Marsski said:
Why isn't MIzzou gonna thump UMass? UMass has given up 38 to Toledo, 34 to Buffalo, and 34 to NIU. Mizzou is gonna have guys wide open.
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Wait, Mizzou is AT Umass? How does that happen? It's not even at the Pats stadium but on campus.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Spent a little time late yesterday going through Vols performances off a loss under Heupel. They are 8-3 ATS, which is pretty common knowledge (I've seen it elsewhere). However, 1H they are even better - 10-1 ATS (the only loss being vs UGA as a dog last year). I'm especially interested in 1H this week with the Bama game on deck for UT. Wish I'd done this work before 1H -7' moved to -125 but there are so many hours in the day.
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Good info
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Spent a little time late yesterday going through Vols performances off a loss under Heupel. They are 8-3 ATS, which is pretty common knowledge (I've seen it elsewhere). However, 1H they are even better - 10-1 ATS (the only loss being vs UGA as a dog last year). I'm especially interested in 1H this week with the Bama game on deck for UT. Wish I'd done this work before 1H -7' moved to -125 but there are so many hours in the day.
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I think Tennessee is a pretty bad matchup for Florida. I was listening to Andy Staples talk about the UCF/UF game, and he said there was a ton of confusion on the UF defense when it appeared UCF was going with pace, but for whatever reason, Malzahn didn't use tempo and allowed UF to get the play in and get set. Tenn will most certainly not do that
 
twinkie13 said:
which one do you go with if it’s not scheme?
Pushed around by a bunch of nerds?
Click to expand...
Listened to Cole Cubelic's breakdown, and one thing he mentioned was Roman Harper showing him multiple instances, including one of the plays in that clip from the UGA film guy, where the Alabama players weren't hustling to the play. Could be that UGA hangover or a sign of a deeper issue on defense. Something to watch this weekend. If we see guys still loafing on defense, then I think Joel Klatt may be right when he called Alabama 2018 Oklahoma
 
gps_3 said:
Listened to Cole Cubelic's breakdown, and one thing he mentioned was Roman Harper showing him multiple instances, including one of the plays in that clip from the UGA film guy, where the Alabama players weren't hustling to the play. Could be that UGA hangover or a sign of a deeper issue on defense. Something to watch this weekend. If we see guys still loafing on defense, then I think Joel Klatt may be right when he called Alabama 2018 Oklahoma
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I tend to think the Bama players saw Vandy on the other teams uniforms and just expected to be able to turn it on whenever they wanted to squeak out a win. No doubt the letdown factor played a role and I would say it was far and away the biggest reason why they lost. Now maybe this shows this isn't an elite Alabama team and Deboer who I think is an excellent coach is not Saban.
 
Brewers888 said:
I tend to think the Bama players saw Vandy on the other teams uniforms and just expected to be able to turn it on whenever they wanted to squeak out a win. No doubt the letdown factor played a role and I would say it was far and away the biggest reason why they lost. Now maybe this shows this isn't an elite Alabama team and Deboer who I think is an excellent coach is not Saban.
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I think a lot of things are true about this Alabama team. One that we expected is that this is not an elite defense. Too much youth and too many changes. That coupled with the letdown factor can certainly explain not only the Vandy game, but the 2nd half of UGA when they no doubt thought the game was over at halftime. SO 6 straight quarters of humility for sure. I guess the question becomes can they recover. As a fan, I certainly hope so. I do think the offense is still rounding into form and will absolutely be a top unit for the remainder of the year, so Alabama overs will constantly be in play
 
gps_3 said:
Just kind of realized that aTm is 3-0 in conference and their remaining schedule is:

@ Miss St
LSU
@ South Carolina
@AU
Texas

I'm not saying it's a cake walk, but going 3-2 is definitely possible. We may get 5 or 6 teams at 6-2 in conference play and have to go way down the tiebreaker list
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I see an upset by the Gamecocks in there.
 
I get the let down factor with Vandy. They already stb vs Georgia St after a big win vs VA Tech. But do we really want to lay 13.5 with UK?
 
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