SEC Week 8

I've been doing some thinking, and some drinking, and I think I'm moving toward having some pretty strong opinions on the league games this week.

My favorite bet in the conference this week is the over in Austin. I'm actually starting to convince myself that UGA wins, but I will for sure be on the over.

I like AU this week and will be on both the points and the ML

I like Arky and MSU to cover

I think I like Florida, but it's the candidate to be the one SEC game I don't bet on

I don't see how anyone can bet OU here. SC is healthy, and other than their tendency to turn It over, I don't see how OU scores

I'm warning up to Alabama winning in Knoxville. I think there's a better chance Alabama's defense figures it out than Tenn's offense (namely, passing) does. Alabama is as healthy as they've been, don't discount the effect having Kendrick Law blocking on the perimeter will have on the offense, and Tenn loses their most important defensive player. Tenn's DL is great don't get me wrong, but I think we can hit enough plays deep and the threat of Milroe's legs will get us in the high 20s, low 30s. And despite the way Alabama's defense has looked the last 2, 2.5 games, I think we match up with Tenn's offense better than UGA, Vandy or SC. Especially considering that Nico isn't a great runner and his decision-making is a little slow to this point. Not to mention their OL isn't great. Right now, I'm thinking 31-20 Alabama. I'd fire in hard if I felt more confident that we wouldn't have some backbreaking, monumental error on special teams, or if I knew what ref crew we get. If it's Jason Autrey's crew, the game is unbettable because there is no telling what they'll do to shift the game completely. Though in fairness, SEC refs are so bad it may not matter who has the whistle
 
AU is -11 in turnover margin this season, with 15 total TOs. That is so bad. It shouldn't be sustainable, but you never know. I have seen some stats on Hugh Freeze teams and turnovers, so it may be a feature and not a bug of their offense
It's probably a little of all of the above re: scheme, coaching, talent, and bad luck.
Agree on all. That’s scary.
Same.
 
I've been doing some thinking, and some drinking, and I think I'm moving toward having some pretty strong opinions on the league games this week.

My favorite bet in the conference this week is the over in Austin. I'm actually starting to convince myself that UGA wins, but I will for sure be on the over.

I like AU this week and will be on both the points and the ML

I like Arky and MSU to cover

I think I like Florida, but it's the candidate to be the one SEC game I don't bet on

I don't see how anyone can bet OU here. SC is healthy, and other than their tendency to turn It over, I don't see how OU scores

I'm warning up to Alabama winning in Knoxville. I think there's a better chance Alabama's defense figures it out than Tenn's offense (namely, passing) does. Alabama is as healthy as they've been, don't discount the effect having Kendrick Law blocking on the perimeter will have on the offense, and Tenn loses their most important defensive player. Tenn's DL is great don't get me wrong, but I think we can hit enough plays deep and the threat of Milroe's legs will get us in the high 20s, low 30s. And despite the way Alabama's defense has looked the last 2, 2.5 games, I think we match up with Tenn's offense better than UGA, Vandy or SC. Especially considering that Nico isn't a great runner and his decision-making is a little slow to this point. Not to mention their OL isn't great. Right now, I'm thinking 31-20 Alabama. I'd fire in hard if I felt more confident that we wouldn't have some backbreaking, monumental error on special teams, or if I knew what ref crew we get. If it's Jason Autrey's crew, the game is unbettable because there is no telling what they'll do to shift the game completely. Though in fairness, SEC refs are so bad it may not matter who has the whistle

I felt good about the Horns early in the week but iffy now. And yes on points. I love Auburn and So Car more every time I think about it.

And on that theme from McMurphy: ***In SEC conference games this season, underdogs have won 9 of 24 games (going 18-6 against the spread)***
 
Last edited:
I think there’s a reason UGA is getting 5 and it looks like a lot. They might put together a vintage Kirby performance from a couple years ago but I just don’t think they’re as good this year. Texas is the ascending team now imo. Should be a good one but I like Horns to win and probably cover.
 
I think there’s a reason UGA is getting 5 and it looks like a lot. They might put together a vintage Kirby performance from a couple years ago but I just don’t think they’re as good this year. Texas is the ascending team now imo. Should be a good one but I like Horns to win and probably cover.
I agree that UGA isn't the same as the previous few years, and it's why I'll probably just stick to the over, but part of me has a little doubt about Texas due to competition so far, and I don't think UGA is dead just yet. Should hopefully be a great game
 
I agree that UGA isn't the same as the previous few years, and it's why I'll probably just stick to the over, but part of me has a little doubt about Texas due to competition so far, and I don't think UGA is dead just yet. Should hopefully be a great game

Stark has gotten better bout it but he still scares me a bit in big games.
 
ags -20.5 @ heritage

Has to be a fade of Messy
ags have gone to starkvegas 4 times as a ranked team and lost 3.
 
@Timh Basically this. Auburn’s problem isn’t moving the ball, it’s holding on to it. I keep thinking there’s some positive turnover regression coming for them but it’s certainly possible that Thorne just keeps throwing it to the wrong team.

I think that Freeze will have things schemed up here off the bye and I trust Drink to get Mizzou on track offensively after a horrible showing in their last SEC outing. I think Auburn finally plays a relatively clean game offensively and Mizzou will be forced to keep up. There should be enough pace for both teams to get in to the high 20’s.
Well this is cooked. Pun intended.
 
Back
Top