Season Win Totals Out At Bookmaker

sirwinzalot

sirwinzalot

The wisdom of Towlie
Royals over 75.5 wins -130 $1k

Just an awful number, going to take a lot of horrendous bad breaks to lose this bet.
 
If Royals aren't in it at deadline, Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain could be goners. I think losing Wade Davis hurts even though he missed a lot of time last year. Hard to bet against the Royals at that number though. I hope you hit it.
 
Yes that's true, and likely part of the reason number is where it is at. I think this team is in it to win. Recent signings point towards that. I was skeptical a month or two ago. But this squad to me on paper has more depth and is better than last year's team. Also you have to look at it from the vantage point of Moustakas, Cain, and Hosmer are all in contract years and have an opportunity to make a good amount of money for themselves. I believe Royals will sign Hosmer to a deal with an opt-out option. Heard radio interview with Dayton Moore and Royals are very much trying to get a deal done in my opinion. This team will score more runs this year, as their slugging is going to increase. Yes Davis is gone, but he wasn't healthy almost all of last year, he got the job done for most of it, but Herrera although he hasn't closed over a season is going to slot in nicely. Strahm although unproven was lights out in pen last year after he was called up (don't expect that same performance, but he should be solid). Then Royals have quite a few other options that I think will give them depth in the bullpen to have a better than expected bullpen. Don't bet against Dayton Moore when it comes to bullpens. He always has good bullpens.

I like the Royals depth more this year as they have a lot more versatility at position players, and more depth off bench and ability to rest players, platoon players, and pinch hit etc, and withstand injuries.

Royals wore out and to me quit during some stretches of last year, and they still were .500 last year

Soria imploded in the bullpen last year (just an awful signing by Moore). He can't be any worse than last year, and if he sucks as bad as he did last year early, they will not put him in high leverage spots. He single-handedly cost the Royals probably 7 or 8 wins.

Division is no stronger than last year, probably weaker.

Tribe for sure is odds on favorite and class of division, but Tigers are an aging team and don't appear to be doing a lot to try and push to win. White Sox will take a step back, and they look to be pretty horrible this year. Twins are the Twins, probably some improvement, but those guys looked like a AA team playing defense last year. Very difficult to see the Royals not sniffing bare minimum of .500 season.
 
Just checked Bookmaker, still showing 75.5 -130. Not sure what book you are using, or if you are seeing 74.5 at Bookmaker.
 
Diamondbacks I see at 77.5...69 wins last year they really got a 9 game improvement in them ?

I'll bet no
 
I lean that way with both of those. I think tigers are right around .500 team. I think they finish third in central. I think with age and injury history and bullpen more can go wrong than right, so I think their floor has more possibility that their ceiling. Won money on diamondbacks under last year, bet it immediately after pollock injury, and season win total was not adjusted.

I would have bet tigers under had I seen the 85.5 I was hoping for.
 
ArizonaKid said:
Diamondbacks I see at 77.5...69 wins last year they really got a 9 game improvement in them ?

I'll bet no
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I think that one is dangerous. A Greinke/Corbin/Miller bounce back year covers 9 wins pretty easily. Greinke was off, but Corbin and Miller were just horrible. Those three + a decent year from Pollock and they do much better. You never know.
 
sirwinzalot said:
Yes that's true, and likely part of the reason number is where it is at. I think this team is in it to win. Recent signings point towards that. I was skeptical a month or two ago. But this squad to me on paper has more depth and is better than last year's team. Also you have to look at it from the vantage point of Moustakas, Cain, and Hosmer are all in contract years and have an opportunity to make a good amount of money for themselves. I believe Royals will sign Hosmer to a deal with an opt-out option. Heard radio interview with Dayton Moore and Royals are very much trying to get a deal done in my opinion. This team will score more runs this year, as their slugging is going to increase. Yes Davis is gone, but he wasn't healthy almost all of last year, he got the job done for most of it, but Herrera although he hasn't closed over a season is going to slot in nicely. Strahm although unproven was lights out in pen last year after he was called up (don't expect that same performance, but he should be solid). Then Royals have quite a few other options that I think will give them depth in the bullpen to have a better than expected bullpen. Don't bet against Dayton Moore when it comes to bullpens. He always has good bullpens.

I like the Royals depth more this year as they have a lot more versatility at position players, and more depth off bench and ability to rest players, platoon players, and pinch hit etc, and withstand injuries.

Royals wore out and to me quit during some stretches of last year, and they still were .500 last year

Soria imploded in the bullpen last year (just an awful signing by Moore). He can't be any worse than last year, and if he sucks as bad as he did last year early, they will not put him in high leverage spots. He single-handedly cost the Royals probably 7 or 8 wins.

Division is no stronger than last year, probably weaker.

Tribe for sure is odds on favorite and class of division, but Tigers are an aging team and don't appear to be doing a lot to try and push to win. White Sox will take a step back, and they look to be pretty horrible this year. Twins are the Twins, probably some improvement, but those guys looked like a AA team playing defense last year. Very difficult to see the Royals not sniffing bare minimum of .500 season.
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thanks for a great post :shake:

i agree the trades seem like a big risk factor, but that division is going to be terrible. Problem I'd think is how division-heavy the schedule is after the AS break so you may not to reap those benefits before the trade deadline. I still see KC as a small market even despite going for it recently, but all the guys coming up through the organization may raise the hometown discount chances, although I don't think they're very high.

RE: bullpen, they're always good but they've also kept terrible pitchers like Madson and Soria in that crucial 8th inning role for far too long and it's cost them, plus Ned Yost does dumb things with his lineup and bunting and probably more that we'll be reminded of soon enough.

With all that said, to quote Hawk, "They catch the ball" and that is a big difference from a lot of the league. Gonna be a close one, but not knowing how effective a fat boy like Moustakas will be off the ACL tear as an extremely important part of the lineup plus the contract dumping concerns won't have me involved
 
ArizonaKid said:
Diamondbacks I see at 77.5...69 wins last year they really got a 9 game improvement in them ?

I'll bet no
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can't argue with this

KeyElement said:
I think that one is dangerous. A Greinke/Corbin/Miller bounce back year covers 9 wins pretty easily. Greinke was off, but Corbin and Miller were just horrible. Those three + a decent year from Pollock and they do much better. You never know.
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I like Corbin, but he pitches to contact too much and I have no idea how you could expect anything good from Miller considering how inexplicably lost he was last year. Organization is a disaster and there are two great teams in the division, plus everybody's favorite Rockies may win more games and will always kill bullpens (games with the roof open do that, too). Padres are terrible and will always be, but they make you play low-scoring games so that's another issue i see with this.

Getting Pollock back will be huge, but his absence wasn't close to ARI's biggest problem and i'm not sure his return influences Goldy enough to get close to .500
 
tough wager and let me tell you why. This team has a lot of soon to be free agents and they might be shopping these guys around.

I think it's the homer in you who thinks this. # is perfect.
 
Thanks for the feedback. Feeling even more confident about this wager, as 5dimes which I consider the sharpest offshore baseball book has season win total at 76.5 -115. Love that everyone is against my opinion and I have a strong opinion on this tells me I'm almost guaranteed to win this. Can guarantee no one on this board knows this team as well as I do. Not going to risk anymore on it as I'm satisfied with invested amount. Just telling you this number is an awful number. As long as team has a chance to make playoffs they will not sell off these players. I've seen how this organization is run these days. Probably not many know had 9th highest payroll in baseball last year. Also they currently have an awful television contract set to end 2018 and I believe they will want to keep team competitive so they can ink a good tv contract. If they fire sale team that will not be a wise move as saving payroll during crucial tv contract negotiations would be cutting off nose to spite face. Team said they would cut payroll, yet it likely will increase this year.

At this number it has them as them somewhere around 9th worst record in baseball. Team also has been building reasonable depth at AAA level that even if jettison occurs still some players that can fill in a few gaps and have competitive team to finish season.
 
sirwinzalot said:
Thanks for the feedback. Feeling even more confident about this wager, as 5dimes which I consider the sharpest offshore baseball book has season win total at 76.5 -115. Love that everyone is against my opinion and I have a strong opinion on this tells me I'm almost guaranteed to win this. Can guarantee no one on this board knows this team as well as I do. Not going to risk anymore on it as I'm satisfied with invested amount. Just telling you this number is an awful number. As long as team has a chance to make playoffs they will not sell off these players. I've seen how this organization is run these days. Probably not many know had 9th highest payroll in baseball last year. Also they currently have an awful television contract set to end 2018 and I believe they will want to keep team competitive so they can ink a good tv contract. If they fire sale team that will not be a wise move as saving payroll during crucial tv contract negotiations would be cutting off nose to spite face. Team said they would cut payroll, yet it likely will increase this year.

At this number it has them as them somewhere around 9th worst record in baseball. Team also has been building reasonable depth at AAA level that even if jettison occurs still some players that can fill in a few gaps and have competitive team to finish season.
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lol wow
 
i didn't think i was that negative, but lol at the guarantee comment. I truly love the confidence and hope you hit :shake:
 
i like it. kc def the team i know 2nd best. think they're around a 79 win team, could even do better.
 
Just bet Royals over 75.5 -120 for another $1k...........Thought about this total, and all of what happened last year in terms of individual player performances and injuries. This is a bad number at 75.5
 
Like it. Got it at 75.5. KC is a solid team who had an off year last year, injuries, etc. They own Tigers, White Sox. Solid bet. GL :shake:
 
Duffy, Kennedy, Hammel, Vargas, Wood.............That is my guess (first 4 are locks to make rotation) 5th spot is a battle between Wood, Karnes, and Young. Likely I think it will be between Wood and Karnes (Young was a gas can last year and appears to be finished, but he can be a serviceable long man in the bullpen (basically innings eater).
 
Let's look into this a little deeper and not with homer goggles on.

Does one person reading this think the Royals have gotten any better? One person? 81 wins last season.


No more dependable Volquez, no more 3rd in lineup Morales, no more lights out close Wade Davis, base stealer Dyson, reliever Greg Holland and sadly their ACE and best pitcher Ventura. That is quite the list of departures. Who did they pick up? Anybody worth celebrating? Pedestrian Hammel?, Karns? and Moss and his .220ish BA? Oh yeah Soler , Cubs reject who hit .237.

Maybe the Royals will be stupid and stubborn and keep all 4 HUGE free agents, not just any free agents but the heart and soul of the team. Are they really going to keep all 4 key free agents and get nothing in return? Does anyone here think that?


The BP which has been it's #1 strength is now very shaky.


18 games vs stud Indians?


This thread is a good example as to why the books make a ton of money. Not only are the books getting +130 which they just need to win 43.5% of the time. They are getting under 75.5 wins with a team who lost their ACE, lost their closer and setup guy, lost their best hitter and didn't replace it with anything special. Also with 4 key hitters who are free agents and almost definitely gone by trade deadline.

Did I mention they get to keep the money for over 7 months?

Must be good to be a book.
 
royals-dart-board-430x244.jpg
 
volquez and ventura were actually pretty bad last year. Hammel is likely going to outperform what they did. lol at ventura being their best pitcher. their biggest pickups are hopefully 50 more games of Cain and 120 more games of Moose, hopefully Gordon plays better, and the Moss will likely give them slightly worse offense than Morales but far superior defensively and gives them a little versatility. Soler is a wildcard - he could be their best player in a year or two.
 
no bet yet, waiting for line to go up. I think it might.

Money held for 7 months though..
 
Opinions are what makes a market. Ventura was awful last year, and volquez in 2nd half of the season was an automatic loss ( I know because I had volquez over 10.5 wins last season -120 for $100, a bet I lost as he finished with 10 wins on season, and I think he notched his 10th win I think in lad July or early August - just an awful ratfuck of a result).

So royals replaced Ventura with Hammel (upgrade imo in terms of innings pitched and quality starts provided he isn't damaged goods, then Vargas should be equal to volquez (health is question but Volquez was horrendous last few months).

Young and Dillon Gee were awful in 5th spot in rotation . I know that spot in rotation will be a substantial upgrade. Duffy is an emerging starter and I'm expecting big strides from him this year (he's shown flashes last two years, as for several month stints he's been a top 5 AL starter easy). Royals look st Gordon, Moustakas, and Cain for large stretches of the season last year, but were able to get some emerging guys experience in (Cuthbert, Merrifield, and Mondesi). Holland didn't pitch a single inning last year, wade davis was very good but injured all year and less than his cyborg self.

Gordon was horrific at the plate last year, hosmer was horrific down stretch, Escobar was awful at the plate.

So many more that can go right his year when compared with last year. Team has more competition and depth than last year, and hard to imagine more injury issues this year. Like that a number of guys are in contract years.

More power on this team and more roster versaliity. Think we could see an improved Salvador Perez offensively this year if they will tie him a few more days rest. Expect Hosmer to progress,and he was dreadful with the glove at 1st last year.

More can go right this year, less injuries, more rested team after two straight World Series runs, better team on paper with depth and versalitity, and I think they will be better road team with more balanced offensive tools. Team won 81 last year l, and now total is 74.5.

I completely agree with Cubsker. Total should be around 78.5, and imo ceiling is greater than floor, so tremendous value at 75.5. It's a very bad number.

It could lose but odds are great they win 76 or more.

Yes likely moustakas, Cain, and Escobar will be gone, but as last season proved royals will not sell off if they are in the mix. Mgmt believes in their players and their ability to be a 2nd half team. I believe royals will sign Hosmer. Royals have lots of AAA/AAAA depth to sustain injuries and when roster expands in September. WhiteSox are taking a big step back, tigers are basically same imo, and twins probably will be improved but they have a AAAA starting rotation, defense, and their lineup is average at best.
 
They didn't lose their setup guy, their setup guy was Herrera who now slots into the closer role. And their bullpen imo has more options in terms of veteran and young guy possibilities.

Also dyson lost a step on the bases, seemed very apprehensive to steal last year and to me lost a step. They still have an emerging player with speed in Orlando. Although I'm expecting a step back with him as he was a walking rabbits foot with balls in play. Still have billy burns as a possible situational d fender/pinch runner, also have the human roadrunner in Terrance gore as a callup pinch running specialist and will be for sure called up when rosters expand.

Morales numbers look better than they were towards wins. He was a black hole at the plate the first few months of the season. I think Moss is pretty much a wash compared to morales with more versatility
 
from a BOL marketing email:

The always popular Season Win Totals hit the screen last week. The sides the public is pounding the most include the Royals Over 75.5 wins, the Phillies Over 72.5 wins and the Angels Under 80.5 wins.
 
dudleysdad said:
How many units gabe
or will u tell us after the result
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lol

cubsker said:
volquez and ventura were actually pretty bad last year. Hammel is likely going to outperform what they did. lol at ventura being their best pitcher. their biggest pickups are hopefully 50 more games of Cain and 120 more games of Moose, hopefully Gordon plays better, and the Moss will likely give them slightly worse offense than Morales but far superior defensively and gives them a little versatility. Soler is a wildcard - he could be their best player in a year or two.
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how much did Morales matter defensively in the DH role? Feel like he barely played 1B in interleague and it was only when Hos needed a day and they were facing a dominant LHP
 
not a whole lot i'm sure, but he's terrible when he's out there and there has to be some value in having a guy who you can put out there at 1B or the corner OF spots who will hit in a pretty similar manner.
 
Vargas as a lock in the rotation is a disaster-- and this is coming from someone who backed him quite a bit a few years ago. Duffy was incredible and is a long way away from TJ, so that’s a good sign, but i’m not sure about Hammel adjusting to the AL. Wood is also changing roles if he takes the 5th spot and if Kennedy stops K-ing people he could be in real trouble as your 2.


I don’t think losing Dyson is a big deal at all with Burns and Wade was unavailable for an important part of the season last year so that’s not as big either, but Herrera officially being the 9th means you gotta question how they do in the 7th and 8th innings as the rotation isn’t going to go too deep into games and Strahm is about all I’m worried about (and there’s always some risk with LHP when they don’t specialize and have to face righties).


Bench is deep, but when they lost Moose last year the replacements were not able to do anything and I wouldn’t be shocked to see that they were well below 0 WAR. If they need to do anything more than fill in on days off, that’s a problem and I don’t know if there is anyone that KC didn’t want to call up last year for control reasons because i think they realize their window is closing and would have done it.


Agree Volquez wasn’t very good, but Ventura may have been set for a really good year this year (RIP). Unexpected player losses in such key positions are huge problems for the organization as even with his behavior issues, I don’t think they were really planning to move his arm and the glass really spiderwebs when you lose an important player like that who would have been at the top of the rotation.


No clue what to expect from Young, but i think you gotta expect good or average before really bad. Cain’s return will be a huge boost and Holland’s loss is irrelevant as he had no role last year.

With all that rambling above, I use 81-81 as my starting point for RSW totals and if it were up there would definitely consider under. Nearly six games lower in a division with two disastrous teams probably means i'd lean over but with all the questions I will not be playing. 29 left to go and GL
 
Good post Gwarner. I think Chris Young will be awful. Not expecting anything out of him. Latest I'm hearing is it looks like Karns will be the #5 guy (still could change, but I think he will get the first chance to fulfill that role). Whoever pitches as #5 starter day in day out has to be a huge improvement (#5 starter slot was absolute dumpster fire last year with Dillon Gee and Chris Young performing extremely poorly). Yes Vargas is a question mark, and he's certainly no Cy Young guy, but I believe he is a guy that gives your team a chance to win most nights, doesn't beat himself, and knows how to pitch, albeit with craftiness. I think this starting rotation is a decent improvement over last year's in terms of their ability to provide more innings and give the team a chance to win day in an day out. Starters killed the Royals last year, and a lot of nights dug the team an early hole. As Royals starters had a propensity to give up a shit-ton of runs in the 1st inning. Royals bullpen in my opinion will be just as good as last year. Soria was a disaster and I'm not expecting anything out of him, and I do believe if he implodes like last year Yost will take him out of high leverage spots and not give him the leash he had last year. Yost is stubborn, and sometimes it works and other times it blows up in his face. He basically is very slow to yank guys out of their role. The positive is his players love playing for him as he has their back and has confidence they will get through slumps, downside is sometimes he does wait too long to change a player's role.

Vargas had pitched decent early on in 2015, and then was just awful, but I think there is a good chance we can attribute his slide to the injury that must have been beginning to occur. I too backed him too long during that slide.

Hammel is a question mark, but I believe he is an improvement over 2016 Yordano Ventura. Yordano Ventura had a lot of very poor outings in 2016 and left games oftentimes way too early thus putting more stress on bullpen.

I believe the starting rotation this year will see a good amount of improvement in innings pitched this year as a group, and thus taxing the bullpen less this year.

I think Dave Eiland is an underrated pitching coach, and I think he does a good job in improving pitchers.

Moustakas yes is another question mark, but he was out pretty much all of last year, so even if he sucks, basically there is no regression there.

I'm expecting some small improvement from royals core players this year with the extra rest this offseason, and most of them being in contract years.

I said all last year what this lineup needs is an infusion of more power, and Dayton Moore must have been listening as he added Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss. Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss are wildcards, but even if they don't bat for high average, I think they can draw a few more walks for the team, and they do provide more power in the lineup to give the team a chance to score runs in bunches occasionally instead of always having to string hits together. So I think the offense is more diverse now and has more ways to scratch runs out nigh in and night out (some nights will be stringing hits together and base running, other nights will get some home runs and win that way). I think with that Royals will player fewer close games in the late innings and that reduces some concern with the 6th and 7th inning bullpen arms.

Then if Moose can return to reasonable form, that adds more power there, and Gordon should hit more extra base hits this year as he missed a good amount of time, and when he came back I think was still not completely healthy with his wrist.

With all of these things happening last year team still won 81 games last year. Like I've said I think a fair number would be more like 78.5ish to high 70s as far as win total is concerned, so at 75.5. think you are getting about 3+ wins of value just from a bad number, and I do think this team has greater potential to drift toward their ceiling than their floor. Think floor on this team is probably around 72/73 wins, whereas the ceiling is probably like 87 wins.
 
Eiland is great, his effect can't be understated. Sounds like you're betting on the rotation and we'll see
 
I went a little hard on my old bud sirwinsalot. He knows i was pulling his chain.
 
Just checking in to see if you are still as confident about the Royals given the poor start? I would have to think if this continues into May that they will definitely be sellers this season.
 
sirwinzalot said:
Thanks for the feedback. Feeling even more confident about this wager, as 5dimes which I consider the sharpest offshore baseball book has season win total at 76.5 -115. Love that everyone is against my opinion and I have a strong opinion on this tells me I'm almost guaranteed to win this. Can guarantee no one on this board knows this team as well as I do. Not going to risk anymore on it as I'm satisfied with invested amount. Just telling you this number is an awful number. As long as team has a chance to make playoffs they will not sell off these players. I've seen how this organization is run these days. Probably not many know had 9th highest payroll in baseball last year. Also they currently have an awful television contract set to end 2018 and I believe they will want to keep team competitive so they can ink a good tv contract. If they fire sale team that will not be a wise move as saving payroll during crucial tv contract negotiations would be cutting off nose to spite face. Team said they would cut payroll, yet it likely will increase this year.

At this number it has them as them somewhere around 9th worst record in baseball. Team also has been building reasonable depth at AAA level that even if jettison occurs still some players that can fill in a few gaps and have competitive team to finish season.
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sirwinzalot said:
Just bet Royals over 75.5 -120 for another $1k...........Thought about this total, and all of what happened last year in terms of individual player performances and injuries. This is a bad number at 75.5
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Well you had quite a few things right in your assessment early in the season. The team wasn't set to be the 9th worst team in baseball, they were set to be the 2nd worst team in baseball. All this talk about how bad the number is at 75.5 was also accurate, the number appears to be far too high and should have been right around 65.5. Praying for a miracle my friend.
 
quite a dick post given that you were nowhere to be seen in this thread before the season started. Fangraphs still projects 74 wins for the Royals. Given how badly they've played and he's still right there close to the number, I wouldn't be feeling too badly if I were him.

Moss, Gordon, and Escobar will prob still suck, but not suck near as much as they have been. Now they get Soler in there, Bonafacio has looked good, Hoz is coming around, and Moose and Cain have been hitting well. Rotation has been serviceable, pen is ok...I think he's fine.
 
Absolute dick move.

Around the same time, Gyno is asking CTG members on Twitter to bump this thread as well.

The bet is only about 17% of the way through the season.

Dayum, I had a much higher tt over last year that was 15-21 through 36 games and magically was 44-38 just past the halfway point. Kooky that there would be swings during a season.
 
cubsker said:
quite a dick post given that you were nowhere to be seen in this thread before the season started. Fangraphs still projects 74 wins for the Royals. Given how badly they've played and he's still right there close to the number, I wouldn't be feeling too badly if I were him.

Moss, Gordon, and Escobar will prob still suck, but not suck near as much as they have been. Now they get Soler in there, Bonafacio has looked good, Hoz is coming around, and Moose and Cain have been hitting well. Rotation has been serviceable, pen is ok...I think he's fine.
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Since I didn't comment earlier, I can't comment now? Makes sense. The only dick move here by saying "i'm guaranteed to win, because you guys disagree"

If you think he is sitting so fine, I will gladly take the under number and will give you the over. Let's say +130
 
YoungGun11 said:
Well you had quite a few things right in your assessment early in the season. The team wasn't set to be the 9th worst team in baseball, they were set to be the 2nd worst team in baseball. All this talk about how bad the number is at 75.5 was also accurate, the number appears to be far too high and should have been right around 65.5. Praying for a miracle my friend.
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C'mon now, even you cannot believe this is cool to put in this thread when you had ZERO discussion about it earlier.
 
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