Scores for ESPN Handicappers--Week 14

[TahoeLegend]

Good week for most of the handicappers. Trocci and Phil Steele had perfect weeks, Trocci at 5-0, Phil 3-0. Bear 2-1 on straight picks and 2-1 on Band Picks. Stanford Steve 2-2. SVP was the only one below .500 with a 3-6. Cowherd is 3-1 with the 49ers going tonight.

Trocci has a solid lead in the season standings, Stanford Steve, Bear also in the black, but not by much, SVP now in the red and Phil Steele sure to finish in the red. Cowherd is in the red, but still has a shot at finishing a few bucks ahead.

The Bear—Week 14 (2-1) Season (23-18)
Auburn +7 Lose
Cal +10 Win
UCLA +3.5 Win
Bear’s Bank Picks— Week 13 (2-1) Season (20-18)
Cal +10 Win
UCLA +3.5 Win
BYU -10.5 Lose

Stanford Steve— Week 14 (2-2) Season (29-23) Best Bet (6-5)
BC +6.5 Lose
Bama –29.5 Win
Akron/B Green o 57 Lose
Clemson -22 Best Bet Win

Bill Trocci— Week 14 (5-0) Season (38-25)
Ohio State -23 Win
Texas A&M -7 Win
Indiana +14.5 Win
Clemson -22 Win
Alabama -28.5 Win

Phil Steele-- Week 14 (3-0) Season (25-37)
Akron-2.5 vs B Green Win
E Michigan+13.5 vs W Michigan Win
Tulane-1.5 vs Memphis Win

Scott Van Pelt— Week 14 (3-6) Season (38-35)
Kentucky Win
Ohio U +11.5 No Contest
Tennessee +17.5x Win
Fresno St +7 Lose
Auburn +6.5 Lose
LSU +29.5 Lose
Navy +7 Lose
Memphis +7s Lose
Pro
Browns +5.5 Win
Texans +3.5 Lose

Joey and Jesse Virtual Locks
Joey (22-5 last year) Week 14 (1-1) Season (12-10)
N Dame/Syracuse O 51.5 Win
Marshall (-23) Lose
Jesse (16-11 last year) Week 14 (1-1) Season (11-10)
Alabama (-29.5) Win
Oregon (-9) Lose

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Week 13 (3-2) Season (30-33)
Rams-3 Win
Philly +8.5 Lose
Browns +5.5 Win
San Fran +1.5 Lose
Pats -1 Win

My Picks— Week 14 (3-2) Season (42-26)
Clemson -22 Win
Marshall -22x Lose
Bama first half -14 Win
Oklahoma -21x Lose
Oklahoma ML Win

 

[s--k]

I don't want to get too personal, but when you play a -2300 ML on OU, aren't you nervous as fuck? 2dimes to win a buck? Or even risking 230 to win 10. Seems like all it takes is to lose one of those and you'd never go near one again.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Actually, I'm not nervous. If I'm nervous I just don't play ML. I didn't see any risk at all against Baylor. I didn't expect Baylor to outhit the OU offense, especially for four quarters, and Baylor played closer to their potential than OU did, but they just don't have the talent or firepower to win that game. They haven't beaten a team with a winning record all year.

I'm not looking at the amount I have to lay, I'm looking at whether there is any chance I can lose. I didn't bet Clemson ML, but if I had there would have been zero chance I could lose. I don't even know what Clemson was, but let's say they were 2300. The odds say 2300, but there is actually zero chance they lose in that spot. With Oklahoma the ML was 2300 at one point but I got it at 1800 and it later dropped to 1600, but whatever the number the real chances are zero in that spot

To me the far greater risk is when OU goes to W Virginia next week with nothing to play for and the title game the following week. If I bet that one ML I would lay far less money, but the risk of loss is far greater.

There is a flaw in the way the books escalate the money line as they escalate the points and the spot where there is the greatest divergence is from roughly 16x to 21x, maybe 22x.

Any good handicapper should be able to hit 90% of ML favorites if he is disciplined in his handicapping, I was 56-0 over a two or three year stretch (posted them all on this board), then they shut me off and wouldn't allow ML bets anymore. I didn't bet a single ML for a couple of years. Last year I bet at a different spot and lost one then bet another and won and they shut me off again

This year one of the guys working there told me I could bet ML if I bet ML on the same team I bet on the line, so I've done it I think four times and won them all (I had OU ML against Okla State and Texas Tech and can't recall what the other one was, but I think it was N Dame v. N Carolina). That makes me 61-1 and I think any serious handicapper can hit that percentage if he's careful and picks his spots

I won't bet Oklahoma ML against Iowa State if Oklahoma is favored in the title game (I probably won't bet OU at all after watching Baylor outhit the offense). It will be low, say 250, but the real life chances of Iowa State beating Oklahoma are 50 times greater than Baylor beating them

Maybe it's the luck of the dumb, but as long as I am disciplined, I find a lot of good spots

 

[TahoeLegend]

I don't want to get too personal, but when you play a -2300 ML on OU, aren't you nervous as fuck?

This is the article that got me interested in ML bets on favorites, but I realized I wasn't interested in his approach--betting a set amount on every ML favorite of a certain amount.

I saw right away there was a more profitable way to bet ML favorites than the way he did it if I was willing to put in the work, but his numbers gave me the basic starting point.

I like a more narrow range than he does and, and make far fewer bets


"As Wohl went on his analytical search for betting advantages and word spread of his efforts, he says he “went from being that dude who went to Vegas to bet on college football all fall to being the guy with the innovative idea.”

He found the asset, or at least one of them, in college football money-line bets. For those who don’t know, money lines allow you to pick a straight-up winner rather than betting against the spread. The catch is that betting on the favorite usually costs a lot more. For example, last fall the Arizona State Sun Devils were 2.5-point favorites over USC. It would have cost you $110 to win $100 betting the spread. On the money line, the Sun Devils were a -135 favorite to win outright. You would have had to bet $135 to win $100. There is a premium for betting straight-up on the team that is expected to win.

There is, however, a long-tail advantage — if you are willing to be patient, something most bettors have a problem with. Wohl found his advantage in betting the money lines for college football teams that were favored by 20-25 points. He wrote in his paper: “There were 376 games in the last six seasons (approximately 62 per season or approximately 4.5 per week) that had spreads of between 20.0 and 25.0. Of those 376 games, 94.95 percent of the favorites won the game outright. Investing equal amounts on all 376 contests produces six straight years of profitable returns with an average annual (non-compounded and non-annualized) return of 12.24 percent.”

 

[TahoeLegend]

One other thing about betting ML favorites--don't even consider it unless you know for a fact your mind is clear enough to make a pure objective opinion

If you just fell in love with a woman and think about her all day, don't bet ML favorites
If you are political don't even think about ML betting (in fact you shouldn't be betting football at all)
Problems at work that are causing you to put in long hours, don't bet ML favorite
Lover just left you or wife seeing a divorce lawyer, don't bet ML favorites

If there is anything at all going on in your life that diminishes your ability to be purely objective don't bet ML favorites