SB 50 Discussion

takeit said:
We're going to watch the Bronco's win. They could put in Hillary Clinton and I'd be OK with it if we win.
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I would pay a few thousand to be in attendance while she gets sacked a few times. helmet to helmet please.
 
Line down to 5.5 at most places. All the "opening line was horrible" people....keep watching as it continues to fall
 
I like Carolina even better the more I think about it. I'll re-state my big thought.....Denver pass rush could tee off against Brady b/c the Pats had no running game. Miller and Ware had no responsibility except get after Brady (and the Pats had no OL and Brady is a statue). With Carolina's zone read/QB run game a big threat the Denver D will look much different than it did 2 weeks ago. Denver secondary is great and I do fear Cam trying to do too much and throwing a few picks but this is his year and he's playing lights out. Nice story with Manning getting back to the bowl but his ride ends with an L.

Props Im looking at:

Ginn longest catch over, Ginn yards over, Ginn TD
Olsen TD
Stewart yards
Manning INT's
Gano PTS Over
Shortest TD Under 1.5 yards
CJ Anderson OVER catches/yards (lot of dump offs with Denver throwing late)
Sanders yards OVER
 
aplous said:
I like Carolina even better the more I think about it. I'll re-state my big thought.....Denver pass rush could tee off against Brady b/c the Pats had no running game. Miller and Ware had no responsibility except get after Brady (and the Pats had no OL and Brady is a statue). With Carolina's zone read/QB run game a big threat the Denver D will look much different than it did 2 weeks ago. Denver secondary is great and I do fear Cam trying to do too much and throwing a few picks but this is his year and he's playing lights out. Nice story with Manning getting back to the bowl but his ride ends with an L.

Props Im looking at:

Ginn longest catch over, Ginn yards over, Ginn TD
Olsen TD
Stewart yards
Manning INT's
Gano PTS Over
Shortest TD Under 1.5 yards
CJ Anderson OVER catches/yards (lot of dump offs with Denver throwing late)
Sanders yards OVER
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Time off between games for Carolina of any concern?
 
What's up with putting Cold Play on at halftime? Do they want every male viewer to turn Yag and fall asleep?
 
She's joining them. If you fall asleep with this on the screen then something's wrong with you.

beyonce-ad.jpg
 
I admit it, I have no idea how to bet this game.

You know the Alec Baldiwin scene in Glengary Glenn Ross? Of course you do. But that part where he's like "Oh, yeah, I used to be a salesman, it's a tough racket," that's me with football. Once upon a time I knew things about football (sips whiskey), once upon a time.

Since basically abandoning the NFL a couple of years ago (I honestly kind of find it boring now, which I'm sure makes me a communist, but I've been called worse), I only bet it occasionally and watch it very little.

That said, I have watched a lot of these playoffs, and in small bets I've done OK—although I missed on Denver/NE, which is part of my hesitation here.

I have two problems with this game.

First, I don't believe in Denver at all. I saw them to end the season, I saw them in the playoffs and honestly, their offense looks awful to me. It looks like typical Peyton in the playoffs, a team that should put up 20+ but that struggles to get to 13 without help. My only hesitation about backing NE against them was the home field advantage factor and, truly, I feel like NE lost that game as much as the Broncos won it. So how do you back Denver here? Which leads to problem number two.

Problem number two is that I not only hate the Broncos, but I don't like Peyton Manning in part because he continually finds a way to fuck me. I bet on him, he loses, I bet against him he wins. So while I would like to bet Carolina here, the number went in the opposite direction that I expected which takes a ton of value from them, and I'm kind of gunshy on the Donks.

The straight-up handicapper in me says to take the six, also probably tease the six with the over. But then I'm involved with that goddman bobblehead of a neck injury again and I don't know if Joe's heart can take that.

But objectively I think Cam is on a mission, I think their defense is at the top of their game and probably feels slighted by Denver's D getting all the love right now. I also don't like Denver relying on a running game with running backs who don't impress me.

I kind of can't remember a time when I didn't know which side to go with in a Super Bowl. Hold me, Take, just hold me.
 
Joe Public said:
Since basically abandoning the NFL a couple of years ago (I honestly kind of find it boring now, which I'm sure makes me a communist, but I've been called worse), I only bet it occasionally and watch it very little.
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thats me more and more every season.... slowly dying imo
 
Joe Public, your post is creeping me out. It's like I could have written it all myself except about giving up on the NFL, you communist. Peyton has fucked me probably as many times as my wife this year.
 
eggman said:
Joe Public, your post is creeping me out. It's like I could have written it all myself except about giving up on the NFL, you communist. Peyton has fucked me probably as many times as my wife this year.
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You're married with kids and it's February 5th. So he's fucked you twice.
 
Hahahaha. Both Tip & Egg got me to laugh out loud right there.

Peyton's the worst. He used to be such money for me too in college, just bet the Gators to beat him, go pay your rent, lather, rinse, repeat. Even in Indy and against the Bears (sorry to bring that up). But in Denver he just likes to make me his bitch.

If we play the reverse psychology, I think it's time to bet on him. He's playing the better team, he hasn't looked very good, it's a big game—all things that suggest we should bet against him. So maybe we have to fade—EVERY SINGLE GOOD GODDAMN REASON TO BET AGAINST HIM.

Argh.
 
One of the guys from the books here in LV was on the radio today and said he imagines that as the public comes into town 70% will be on Carolina, so if you like the 5/5.5 you should take it now, but if you're on the Donks you should see what you get in the next 24 hours and Sunday AM because the line's probably not going to get any worse for you.

This, of course, just reminded me how little I knew because I've thought the public would be all Manning all the time with them being a dog of over three.
 
Ha. First off, HI THROW.

I'm not sure why I'm yelling, I might be rusty at this.

Anyhoo, the dude from the book said six was the pressure point. That when books put the six out there they got hammered with Denver money so they dropped back to the 5.5. He said six is almost certainly the best you'll see if you can get it.
 
In the playoffs so far, the totals mark for 1st h + 2nd h + FG is O/U 14-16.

Games not involving Denver? O/U 13-11.

Games involving Denver? O/U 1-5.


Last 3 SB have paid out on the Over. Only 1 previous instance in history of 4 straight SB paying out on the Over (1985 to 1988).
 
scarf31 said:
The most underdiscussed aspect of this game to me has got to be the Carolina Front 7 vs. the Broncos Offensive Line. Denver could hardly stop New England's front 7 from making Chicken Parm continually feel pressured...I just see this as a major advantage to Carolina that nobody talks about. Denver has to be able to run the ball, not turn it over, somewhat control Cam and try to slow down Carolina from running the ball. And that's not even counting on 18 and how he plays because it's pretty obvious this is his last game. I just don't see Denver being able to do all of those things...this game has similarities to the Seattle SB 2 years ago...don't think Cam and crew roll like that, but can easily see a double digit victory.

Can Denver play the perfect game? Sure they could. And if 18 gets some time, Carolina's secondary can be exposed if you avoid Norman for the most part...but I just don't think Kubiak is a good coach at all and I think Wade won't be able to scheme enough stuff up to confuse a solid Carolina O line.

For entertainment sake I hope that game is close, but I just can't see Cam getting shut down by any defense the way he is playing. And if you aren't shutting down 1, you aren't beating the Panthers this year.
Click to expand...

The best point made yet in this thread. The Carolina front 4 is no joke, better than KC's who gave the Broncos trouble both times they played this year. Carolina won't have to blitz to put pressure on 5 Head. Manning will be uncomfortable in this game and we all know what he does when he's uncomfortable.
 
I've been breaking down some quarter scoring and found something interesting...

Broncos L11 2Q's
vs NE 10-3
vs Pitt 3-3
vs SD 0-3
vs Cin 3-7
@ Pit 13-6
vs Oak 6-0
@ SD 3-3
vs NE 7-7
@ Chi 3-6
vs KC 0-9
@ Ind 7-10

So Den was 3-5-3 SU in L11 2Q's
And Den was outscored 57-55 by opponents in L11 2Q's

Panthers L11 2Q's
vs Arz 7-7
vs Sea 17-0
vs TB 24-0
@ Atl 7-0
@ NYG 14-0
vs Atl 7-0
@ N.O. 13-2
@ Dal 13-0
vs Was 17-0
@ Ten 7-3
vs GB 24-0

Car went 10-0-1 SU in L11 2Q's
Car has outscored opponents 150-12 in L11 2Q's
 
Ok two questions if someone can help. One is easy the other a bit challenging.

1) ATS record of underdogs in the superbowl since 2000.

2) ATS record of teams in the superbowl for the second time within a 5 year period after losing the first time
 
The last 10 teams to score 40 or more points in a playoff game — as the
Panthers did against the Cardinals in the NFC championship game — went 1-8-1 ATS
in their next game.


— Take that back to 1996, and teams that scored 40-plus points in a playoff game
are 4-22 ATS in their next game. Wow.
 
Blakeman hasn't officiated a Den game since 2014 but Den is 5-0 SU in games officiated by Blakeman
 
The last ten times Peyton Manning dropped back to pass he resembled an old woman.
 
Anyone know who Norman will probably be on more?

D Thomas or Sanders? I believe Thomas, right?
 
Panthers were highest-scoring team during regular season. The top-scoring team has lost 4 of last 5 times they’ve made it to Super Bowl
 
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