Saturday's CFB...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Interesting card this week. Hopefully my early success carries into October. I do know that some teams that I had rated highly coming into the season have been overadjusted past my initial number (a big reason why I didn't have Louisville last night, why I'll be off of a couple of others today) - and likewise for some bad teams, the same thing has happened. Now it's up to identifying the "new" value. Good luck to everyone...

Wisconsin is legitimately better than I thought they would be but in no way am I interested in laying three touchdowns, even to downtrodden Northwestern unit that was thoroughly bashed last week at Happy Valley. That was a halftime cash game for me. By the way, will be trying to post ALL halftime plays today, time permitting...

Iowa has good home numbers but I forsee a possible hangover today against Purdue, and the Boiler offense should be able to put up enough points to compete for 60 minutes.

Really think I got the best of the number in laying less than 7 with Pitt today at the CUSE. The Orange have covered all 5 this season but my God what a lucky bunch they've been. Think that all stops today against potent Palko and the Pitt offense, which should relish the weather-free conditions that rarely exist at the ketchup bottle. Tough to bet too much against Cuse's ATS record and rapidly-improved squad but the value certainly exists with guest today.

THe play: Pitt -6.5 for a big bet.

Not interested in either the Hoosiers or Illini. If I see a 10, I will probably do what I did last week and grab it with the Hoosiers. They are away from home, which might actually be a good thing. Illy is still Illy, as Mich. State was ripe for the pickings last week so I don't put a lot of stock in that win. Who are they to start laying more than a touchdown?

Wake Forest 5-0, and yes I know they have beaten five pretty bad teams. Still, with ample prep time for new QB, LT, RB to get acclimated to the offense, must go with Grobe as the Deacs always seem to find a way to beat this team. Clemson has been throttling people but have to wonder when the usual letdown is coming. Waiting for 17 - will have a small bet at 16.5 if that's all I can find.

The play: Wake plus 17 for a medium bet

Not interested in either side in Miami - Canes have revenge but neither coach will be around past this year, not sure how eager either side will play.

Georgia Tech now laying lofty number after inspiring, revenge-driven truck job at Blacksburg last week, and despite Fridge's offensive struggles, need to note his success on the road as a dog in ACC games. I got jobbed earlier this year at WV with this side but I'mma go back to the well today in a game that I forsee coming down to a couple of late plays to decide the outcome.

The play: Maryland plus 14 for a medium bet

How bad does Ohio State want to beat BG in a Big 10 sammich? OSU covered 12 straight now...

Ditto all above, except subsitutute Kent State to beat Temple in a MAC sammich? Horrible Minny loss all but erased after the play of the new Kent electric little QB as of late.

Ball State's defense is hideous and they've only covered as a RF once since 1997 - but that stat is meaningless, because they're NEVER a road fave. I will lay 3 if it pops up, just because even off a bye I don't think Buffalo can score enough to keep pace with Card offense now that Davis has taken control at QB.

The play: Ball -3 for a small bet (when it comes) - passing anything higher.

Auburn disappointed its backers last week but I'm relishing the chance to bet against Mustain and his OC's new offense in their first "true" SEC roadie (Vandy and 30K fans hardly counts) in a tough environment against a swarming defense that will be eager to atone for some mistakes last week. This one gets ugly. Waiting for 14...

The play: Auburn -14 for a small bet (when it comes) - will lay 14.5 if I have to.

No interest in either Duke or Bammer. Host names the score - just don't know what they'll name it.

Billy is on the favorite in Manhattan, and even though I don't like K-State's team, hard to recommend an OKie State team that has yet to cover away from Stillwater as a true visitor in five games under Gundy. Pass.

Emotional psyche could play big role in Lawrence, as both Ayyunem and Kansas lost games they prolly shoulda won last week. Would prefer to have Kansas - this is first true roadie for Ayyunem this year and KU 7-1 L8 conf games ATS at home.

BYU line up up and away. Hard to blame them for betting that side; it's a revenge spot, Diego State is banged up, extra prep for Cougs and they trucked this team at elevation last time they met.

I made Tulane an ever-so-slight fave so should be 'taking' against Rice but hard to get a good read on Owls, who have played a brutal schedule and beat Army to a pulp last week after Clement returned as the QB. I like Ricard and the Wave in a less-emotional home spot today, and think this goes to the wire.

I like both Navy AND Air Force, and though USNA has won last 3 meetings all by three, sets up for big revenger for Fisher's Flyboys, who have perhaps their best team in years. Won't bet against cash-counting Navy (21-6 L27 on road ATS) though.

Notre Dame laying another large tariff, and though Stanford is bad bad bad, note last year in which they led after 58 minutes. Wonder what happens in South Bend today. My guess, a lot of punishment.

No interest in either side in Starkvuhl, as Messy State hasn't scored a meaningful touchdown against a mediocre or better defense all season. WV off bye and somewhat-slugging rushing game beforehand at East Carolina. Not sure how motivated they'll be in this odd road spot before Big East play kicks off.

LSU/Florida will be an absolute disaster for the house if it falls inside of '3' with either team winning. Number has fluxuated all week as Wynn's status has been in doubt. I made Florida a '1'-point favorite so I'm not really interested in either side. Year 2 of the Urbanization Era usually is good for those who back him, though. Gators lost last time to LSU at home and are playing with more revenge after last year's loss in Baton Rouge as well. There is plenty of support for LSU - and considering they lost turnover battle 5-0 last year and still won game, I can see why. Still, won't try to beat Urban at home in this kind of spot. Passing until half. I do prefer UNDER - there will be too much speed on the defenses, a typical SEC brawl.

The play: LSU/UF UNDER 41 for a small bet.

I made Wazzou seven-point fave. With Oregon State getting trampled last week and a possible QB controversy brewing, I'll bite on the fave, as they have more athletes and playmakers and shouldn't be too discouraged about the close USC loss. Look for a good SU run here in the second half by battle-tested COugs.

The play: Washington State -3 for a small bet.

Not sure how Zona will play today at UCLA - as their young QB is still suffering from some injuries, while Bruins will seek revenge for 52-14 desert thrashing last year. Still, I made it 7 so I gotta take the points, but UCLA has beaten me out of all my cash this year.

The play: Zona plus 12 for a small bet.

Itching to bet on Southern Cal, as "Pour it on Pete" has to make an appearance sooner rather than later. But cannot trust USC defense that was exposed a few times last week, and UW is very-well coached and might make this a tad uncomfortable. Made it right at the number.

Texas State Fair looks like it's gonna be contested without my involvement, as I was looking for '6' with Oklahoma in a game I forsee going down to the wire. There's enough on this game in other threads throughout this forum. I think Oklahoma will have a chance to win it on the field and it would not surprise me if they did with a healthy "AP". Let's remember VY's stats in his first Red River Shootout and note Stoops's series ATS and dog ATS records. Will watch first half closely.

No interest in either side in Metrodome. Penn State is better than advertised but Minny did battle to the end in tough 14-point loss to Mishitgan last week and earned some points for me in the process for their tenacity.

Might want to send me to the mental home now, but prefer the points with Sparty today even after the last two losses. Remember, these games have recently been decided in OT with MSU on the wrong end in 04 and 05 (despite having SHOULD HAVE won both)... Michitgan off three straight revenge games!!! Hard to see them bringing their best today even against a dangerous rival. Make no mistake, from what I've seen so far, UM is the best team in America and should be unbeaten with Ohio State as the two crash-course for a 1/2 game at the Shoe to end the season. But this will be the one "danger spot" UM sees until then.

The play: Michigan State plus 17 for a medium bet.

OK, I realize UNLV is prolly pretty bad after last week but who is Colorado State to start laying 17 or more to anyone. Rams can't run the ball for anything and UNLV's secondary is decent. Reno was just 2-for-13 on third down last week and that was with much more potent offense than this one. If Sanford would get Hinds out of the pocket in the SAME SYSTEM that produced Alex Smith (Hinds has 4.38 40-speed by the way), things might happen for Vegas. CSU 1-8-1 ATS in conference openers and Vegas 9-1 ATS in same spot. In 2005, State needed to win to clinch a bowl, yet laying 15, they trailed by 10 late in the third before rallying.

THe play: UNLV plus 17.5 for a medium bet.

Expect whole world to be on Idaho/NM State OVER. Why not? Number is too low but I missed the opener so value is gone for me. Also I will take Idaho if I see the other side ever become the favorite again. One rule in CFB - who is NM State to ever be the favorite until they beat a I-A team, especially on the road? Shallow Hal still not playing any defense out there.
East Carolina is the right side today but astute bettors saw that early in betting this up three full points, to 6.5 this morning. Virginia wasn't too impressive in blowout win over Duke, while Pirates are 5-0 ATS in out of league games under Holtz and are off a bye. If I can lay 6, will consider it.

The play: ECU minus 6 for a small bet (if it comes) - passing anything higher.

Looking for '7' with Akron against UC. Sure, Zippies were throttled last week and have disappointed since NC State win but Cincy has U of L on deck and faced a backup QB for Miami O last week. SU win would not shock but looking for max points here.

The play: Akron plus 7 for a small bet (if it comes) - will take 6.5 if I must...

South Carolina was bet ferociously once this line came out, yet all the smart guys have been on Kentucky the last three days. Emphatic game for Lexington boys, who know this is their best chance to punch a bowl ticket. But that defense has got to do better against Newton and Rice. Still, this is Newton's first start under center in an SEC roadie since 2004 and since it's a "Keeneland Saturday", expect a loud and boisterous UK crowd for the nationally-televised night game. Pass.

Not quite sure what to make of this Baylor line. I got it damn near a PICK. Colorado, despite improvements as of late, is still 0-5. The Bears are well-coached and play hard, even though they lack any sort of a rushing game. I'm taking...

The play: Baylor plus 5.5 for a small bet. Will take more at '6' for a small bet if it pops up.

Not sure what to make of Nebraska/IOwa State. Still got the red-ass from last year when I took 4.5 with Clones in a game they shoulda won on the field, only to blow it in double OT by 7 I believe... Meyer has had career success vs. Huskers and their offense should be enough to keep them inside this tariff in big revenger. But tough to envision a win over NU squad that was likely looking ahead to this one last week in porous defensive effort vs. Kansas.

The play: Iowa State plus 7 for a small bet.

No opinion whatsoever on Memphis/UAB. U-ab won six straight in series and Joe Lee Dunn got fired and Memphis defense gets worse. Tough to gauge either side here, need to see a game.

Texas Tech getting plenty of support and I think they might be the right side against a Mizzou team that's been beating up on patsies all season. Tech got run off field in Columbia as small fave in 2003 and Leach isn't one to forget such things. Will wait for now but prolly be on Tex Tech before the 7:10 kick.

Prefer taking points with home doggie Ohio against WMU but Everson has shown me little since the NIU game, making it look more like an accident than anything truly significant. I'm not Cubit fan (father or son) so I won't have Broncs as a road-fave. If I can end up taking a little bigger price, might play OU - but doubt it.

Vandy as a road fave in the SEC? Well, I laughed too but it is the right thing; Ole Piss getting nothing consistent on offense and Oregeron has been a cash-burner ATS since arriving to town (1-9 last 10 I believe)...

Toledo should NOT be the favorite over Central Mich. UT quarterback situation unresolved to all except those inside Rocket program heading into today but CMU offense carved up UK for 558 last week and prolly found itself a new quarterback in the process. Looking for 3-flat here and will be involved if it pops up. Another later kick...

Been salivating about this one for awhile now, as this is a huge revenge game for South Florida. They get an extra day to prep for UConn. Last year, with a chance to clinch a share of league crown, they went to East Hartford and played in 33-degree weather (90 players on USF roster had never even SEEN snow beforehand). This time, it's UConn getting to face some mad Bulls in the Florida heat. Bonislawski was 15-of-37 against Navy and figures to struggle with this speedier defense today. New frosh QB Grothe brings great enthusiasm and a run/pass option to the table. I've had this one circled for awhile.

The play: South Florida -6 for a big bet.

Typical SEC battle between stout defenses today. Difference could come down to kicking, where Dogs have lost their All-SEC kicker for the year, the Vols sport Wilhoit, who has made big kicks most of his UT career when needed. I've got no problem laying less than '3' against a team that can't score, even 'between the hedges'.

The play: Tennessee -2 for a medium bet.

Realize Oregon looked really good last week with a chip on its shoulder in thrashing in Tempe but let's not overreact here. Cal has looked really good basically every play since its loss in Knoxvul to open the season. Note Bellotti's record against Tedford since Jeff bolted for Berkeley but these Bears are a dangerous breed. The new OC from Northwestern has produced good results thus far since Longshore has emerged at QB. The "us against the world" mentality won't work for UO this week. Cal will be ready.

The play: California -5 for a medium bet.

Confused here. Wyoming continues to find new ways to lose, as if a few breaks went their way, they could be 4-1 instead of the reverse. Syracuse-to-Laramie-to-Albuquerque angle has me less enthusiastic but still think they are right side considering Lobos still NM is 6-0 in this series and Rocky's Lobo defense could confuse 'Poke offense. But four losses by 21 total points tells me that Wyoming is much closer to being where it needs to be than the other side. Sween might be the answer at QB.

The play: Wyoming plus 1 for a medium bet.

Not interested in Lousy Tech or Boise. Would have dog with gun to my head, in catching six scores. But brutal LT schedule and travel has me passing.

Not interested in either side of Fresneck/Utah State. Would get a long look at UNDER if it weren't so damn low.

Giving a lot of thought to taking points with SMU, as I'm hearing rumblings of this line getting to as high as '14' before the kick. Yes, I realize it's a revenger for UTEP but who is turnover-prone Miners to lay DD's to anyone? RS freshman Willis is hot as of late (11 touchdown passes last 3 games) and RB Martin will be back from injury.

The play: SMU plus 14 for a small bet (if it gets there).

Hawaii line up, up and away as people starting to realize oddsmakers have not given BOWS enough early-season (and pre-season) credit. This is one team I had rated much higher and they've cashed all their checks this season. The tariff might be a little higher but note success of host ATS/SU in this series. Jones says this is his best UH edition yet, and QB Brennan hitting on all cylinders now. The Pack defense has struggled against good offenses and this Rainbow offense is a good one, especially on the islands. Modest three-game streak against suspect comp gives us more value with UH.

The play: Hawaii -11 for a medium bet.

Shit games, no real opinions either way on any of the three. Gun to the head, would have FIU, U-La-La and Arky State. But won't lay more than 5 with Arky State, and it's 6 now.

If I end up getting the worst of the number on some games, I will post it as soon as I end up making a bet. As for now, assume nothing other than what I posted on the games where I am waiting.

Two big bets, Pitt and USF... and a bunch of other smaller ones. Big bets have been good to me lately, as I've hit seven of eight on Saturdays this year.

GL all, let's make it another profitable day. Will be back periodically as time permits throughout the day with halftime plays...

:shake:
 
Sonar: Hadn't heard that sir. No wonder the big line move on UTEP this morning.

I will stay away. Thanks.

Thanks fellas. GL to you guys as well...
 
Rex - GL today, like your thoughts on SFLA. I was impressed with Grothe in the Rutgers game and Conn. passing game leaves a lot to be desired.
 
Pirates Battled some Flu

ECU battled some flu over the weekend and had a reduced practice Monday. However had the bye to set the plan. Just thought I would inform
 
GL today bro. Like the card for the most part but I gotta ride the Cuse' and their perfect ATS record.

:cheers:
 
Wow, alot to like here IMO Rex. I have KU, Cal, Iowa St, and Idaho circled....Good luck today.
 
Very comforting to know are cards are nearly exact. One I differ on is Pitt cause I am not sold on them yet and strange things happen in the DOME. GL CKR
 
Nice card Rex; I liked UNLV as well, with CSU having a Thurs game vs the Flyboys on deck and off a big NC win on the road...this sets up well for Vegas. However, top CB Wright is out for at least 3 weeks with a knee and their nickel back is likely to be a frosh going up against a nice 3 WR set. Still like UNLV but I could not pull the trigger...GL today.
 
Had to take W MI -3.5 @ Ohio. Thanks for the insights. On Pitt as well for the early games.

GL. jimmyd.
 
Halftime plays.

Wisconsin -9.5 for a small bet.

Purdue plus 4.5 for a medium bet

Auburn -7.5 for a medium bet

Some of these people have bad bad bad lines up. Keep your eyes open and hit them before they realize the mistakes!!!
 
lol...On the same three...good to see Rex..

Nice card today BTW..lets get Pitt in
 
Bravo on a good season so far , Rex.
Keep up the good work.:cheers:

I'm on your side on most of those dogs today.
Pitt bet looking good so far. :shake:
 
Not too bad fellas. Sorry I wasn't around late last night. At the bar, watching Cal and Oregon, I stumbled into my strongest halftime bet of the year. After Cal's amazing PR for a touchdown late in the first half, an Oregon player apparently got dirty with a Cal guy and Tedford saw it. A flag was thrown, then later picked up. Tedford was irate.

With that double or triple-revenge and them being so much better than UO from what I saw, it was setting up for a large halftime play if they tried to make Oregon the favorite.

Since most bookmakers worth their salt were home wrestling with the girls or working on the Niffel or sleeping and therefore NOT at the office, I figured they'd not seen what I had.

Sure enough, three offices I do business with down here tried to make Oregon 1/2 fave and minus money or flat... I plowed into Cal, figuring Tedford would NOT let up after what transpired. I was right.

If I wrote them down right, 2-0 on the big plays posted, 6-3 on mediums, and 5-2 on smalls... and 1-2 on posted halftimes, sorry bout that lol...

Prolly won't get involved tonight with the MAC game but may do a write-up later...

Congrats to all the winners yesterday....

:cheers:
 
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