CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Saturday's card is a damn good one. My enthusiasm has been tempered a little bit by the fact that Dr. Bob is heads up against me on two of my big plays - the good news, the price is better than what I expected; the bad news is that I did more work looking into some of these games and realized there were good viewpoints and opinions on the other sides as well...
Miami looked great vs. Ayyunem and has extra time to rest. Note close win (struggle to the end) in Durham last year... I lean Duke just because the Devils have improved more, perhaps, than they have received credit for (beat Northwestern, and almost Navy)... Lot of points - and Duke is 7-2 in their last 9 as a road dog.
Carolina is awfully young and will struggle to score much against a VT defense that's been solid save for the Baton Rouge debacle. No interest in laying it here, as Beamer wants to stay on Butchie's good side (in the future, UNC will be loaded and any blowouts are sure to go in Davis's mental bank)...
Akron and UConn have combined to play some high-scoring games in the last couple of meetings. While the offenses seem a little pedestrian this time around, can't ignore such a low number here. I expect at least 24 from each team, which gets this easily over the number. Also lean dog but total looks better.
The play: OVER 43 in Storrs for a medium bet.
Indiana sure looks enticing at this price. I mean, I made the game six. This is the same Iowa that lost to Iowa State of all people. The Hoosiers were beaten pretty good up front by Illinois last week. That, and the big revenger at Kinnick for the Hawks, is slowing me down.
THe play: Indiana plus 11 for a small bet.
Messy State has quietly played unbeaten ball since the lidlifter at home to LSU. But those untested new MSU QB's are up against it here against fast and aggressive Spurrier defense that played very solid after the break in Baton Rouge last out. Letdown? Pass.
Temple and Army are two bad teams. I have a friend with a theory - when two bad teams play, don't bother with the side - just play OVER. Since I made it much higher, I'll buy it (for those who have heard another theory - take the points - well, another sharp friend of mine subscribes to that one here)...
The play: OVER 46 at West Point for a medium bet.
AFA and Navy meet in a C-I-C battle - the first without Fisher at the helm for awhile. Johnson has owned the CIC trophy in his first four seasons. But the Navy were a 30-15 covering machine under him; now they are 0-fer-2007. Pass.
Ball State took the Cornshitters to the gun last week, with a dropped TD pass from Love being the difference between "close" and "finally" against a BCS team. Not sold on Nebraska at all, and BSU's run game figures to take a hit now that MiQuale Lewis tore an ACL and is out for the year. If Barfalo can figure out what Miami did in the opener in Muncie, expect the Bulls and Willy to keep this one close for a good part of the game. Missed the value so I have to pass.
Not sure where they come up with the total in the Mount Pleasant matchup, and I'm no fan of a bad CMU team laying points to a NIU team that's had the deed on them since Joe Novak started getting talent coming to DeKalb about a decade ago. Neither team interests me, and I made the total 53. They got me.
THe play: UNDER 59.5 in Mount Pleasant for a medium bet.
No big fan of Michigan laying a big tariff in their first roadie of the season, even though Sutton will sit for the Wildcats. Still, NU 12-6 ATS at home last 18 and Lloyd 6-14-1 on the road laying it after a SU/ATS win. Pass.
Cuse laying points on the road now after beating Louisville? Come on. They are STILL being outgained by MORE THAN 230 YARDS PER GAME!!! Miami injury bug definitely noted but at home, I expect better out of them than a loss to these lowly bums. I nibbled.
The play: Miami O Moneyline for a medium bet
Sixty percent chance of rain forecast at Rice-Eccles Stadium today. Utah is an enigma but the Ute defense should be able to shut down a listless USU offense. Meanwhile, Utah might flex its muscles for a bit but hard to ignore a shutout in Vegas (?).
The play: UNDER 46 in Utah
I might lose this one, but I'll take pupil against teacher once again. Tedford broke the Bellotti hex last fall and now, in a matchup of near-equal teams, I get a chance to take a touchdown. The Bears are about as live as a 'dog' as I've seen all season. Jackson should be fully healthy and could make the difference. Stanford exposed some defensive flaws in the Ducks at the Farm last week and me thinks Tedford will do the same today.
The plays: Cal plus 7 (I would take 6.5 now as I expect it to go away) for a medium bet. ML for a small bet. OVER 72.5 for a small bet.
Gonna watch Bama/FSU first half for an idea there. Gut-wrenching loss for Bammer, while Noles coming off a bye. Fisher vs. Saban matchup a bit intriguing. Suspensions for Noles are mostly outside the FB program. Still, worth watching. Pass.
Mississippi owns most trend edges in Athens but I can't recommend either side in that one, as Jorja coming off big win and in the middle of Bama/Tenny sammich... but own far superior firepower on both sides.
After watching South Florida last night, it occurred to me that Auburn's first four home foes were prolly a little better than advertised at first. Yes, Florida is in a big revenge spot and hung 59 against their first home SEC foe... but Tommy T is 7-0-1 ATS in Game 4 against an unbeaten foe... and is 30-18 ATS on the SEC road since coming to the plains. The stout Aubbie defense is catching a boatload of points, and if the offense doesn't give the ball away and give free points to Tebow and Co., this one has the potential to stay VERY close...
The play: Auburn plus 18 for a big bet.
Tough to call the UCLA/Oregon State game. I made UCLA the small fave before the QB injury situation cropped up. Remember, Sammie also gonna miss for OSU. Olson is likely to go. No clue; pass.
A lot of love going to Zooker and the Illini. To be honest, most of you know from back in the Covers days that he is one of my favorite coaches. He got the raw end of the stick in Gainesville and that national title they won last year should be one where he gets a ring; he recruited all that talent. He is doing it again in Champaign but these are young kids. They are capable of going to Bloomington and beating IU, but if Penn State shows up anywhere near the right state of mind, they are far superior at this point than Illinois. I lost betting against the Zooker last week but he's also one of my favorite coaches because of a superb ATS record betting his games going back five years... and I'm going against him again today - albeit smaller, because of the possible Penn State letdown.
The play: Penn State -3 for a medium bet.
Two teams that are still overvalued despite being unbeaten collide today in Madison. I made it seven and am not interested in either side.
Iowa State is still bad, but showing strides of improvement (I thought Toledo would gut them like a fish at the Glass Bowl last week but they really should have won outright after beating Iowa); Nebraska fire getting hot for AD and coach after Ball State should have won in Lincoln last week. Lot of points to lay but listless Cyclone offense should struggle to trade punches with fired up Corn.
K-State knows it can beat Tejas, as evidenced by last year's Manhattan triumph as 15-point dog... but not interested in taking - lots of people are writing off the Longhorns and I don't think that's too wise considering they are still unblemished on the season. Lot of points but in this revenger, I'll pass - at least for a half.
Nevada has a great ATS record under Ault and against UNLV and blah blah blah - fact is, this Vegas unit has turned the corner under embattled Sanford, and this is the next step. The Fremont Cannon comes back to Vegas as the MWC surprise contender continues to make strides forward under emerging QB Dixon. All touts in the world have pushed people to bet Reno up to ridiculous price.
I would bet almost anything that Walters comes in on the dog and brings it back to 2 or so at kickoff...
The play: UNLV plus 3.5 for a big bet and ML for a medium bet.
UTEP and SMU are both better defensively than they are offensively at this point in the season. The Ponies stiffened up on defense vs. TCU last week and I expect that to continue this time out against UTEP. If special teams don't play a part, it should go down to the wire - please stay out of overtime!
The play: UNDER 61 for a medium bet in Dallas.
No clue how to play the Hawaii/Idaho game. Gun to head, lean Fave and Over. But who knows. lol - ask HG...
I read a tout writeup earlier this week that made me laugh - "sensitive viewers who still find it difficult to look at troubling images of post-Katrina New Orleans had better stay the hell away from this telecast"... what's even more laughable is that ESPN decided to clog one of their networks at noon with this mess. 41.5 and 51 - if you can find places that take LSU/OVER or Tulane/UNDER parlays, then go for it. Otherwise, pass...
Lots of money has come for Colorado State, the best winless team in America. When will the streak end? The longer it goes on, the better chance that you won't see Sonny on the CSU sidelines next season. Too bad; a class act. But a brutal schedule and some breakdowns that have cost them wins will likely leave the Rams 0-4. Pass.
Vandy in very unfamiliar role of laying three-plus scores against an overmatched foe. Still, can't recommend either side and I made it right at the number.
Dr. Bob hammered into Toledo, and some others also recommend the Rockets this week. However, WMU's brutal early season schedule could start reaping some benefits as early as today. The big win over CCST last week was evidently very impressive, as Gold Sheet has them ranked No. 2 in I-AA and the Broncos destroyed them. This is definitely a game to watch the line movement (ANY TOLEDO GAME IS!!!!)... but I will play the Bronco ML small for now.
The plays: WMU ML small - if the line goes to 3, then a medium bet on WMU and more ML fun as well...
Another BOB MAC Special in Athens, but not sure why all the touts are caressing and loving Kent - the Flashes are 113th in turnover margin - a troubling stat when you have a game with two predominantly rushing teams. McRae gutted the Flashes for 136 in a win at Kent last fall and that Flash defense has already yielded 10 rushing TDs in 2007. Special teams played a big part in that Kent loss, but the Bobcats did limit Jarvis to 34 yards on 12 carries. Both teams had tough losses, but give OU the nod thanks to coaching and the HF edge... ANother game where I expect Billy to come on my side and drop this price...
The play: Ohio U plus 3 and ML for a combined big bet.
Colorado looks to be finally putting it all together on offense but you can be sure Danny Hawkins wanted at least a LITTLE more time to prep for this battle against Oklahoma, which looks to be playing at least as well as LSU and USC to this point. An awfully large tariff in a road conference game, but with an extra day to prep, the Stoops Troops should roll again. Pass.
Baylor's recent offensive successes, coupled with the Fresno/A&M game that was a dead-ass under before going to 3 OTs, have made this total so high that now it's playable. Szymanski is still a green sophomore and will make mistakes and now that the Bears are done with the cupcakes, expect a return to struggling against a physical and embarassed Ayyunem defense this week. I give the Bears a good shot at covering the large tariff if their smallish defense can continue to keep the struggling Aggie offense in check.
THe play: UNDER 59.5 for a medium bet.
I have no clue on what to make of Pitt/Virginia. Until the true frosh QB gets acclimated with what's going on in Wannstedt's offense, no interest in Pitt - UVA should also struggle offensively but they are playing with much more confidence and at under a touchdown, could well get the cash. Total would interest me but any college football game in the 30s makes it awfully tough to go UNDER.
BOB and others are all over the Houston bandwagon, and it would be easy to back them at less than DD's against an ECU squad that's been reeling as of late. But Skip Holtz is sure to bring his "A-game" against a team that's much closer to his class than VT and WV; and note his 18-6 ATS record first two years and visitor 5-1 ATS last six in this series. Pirates a little banged-up making this trip, so I pass.
Big mismatch in talent today in Tulsa in C-USA lidlifter for both teams. U-ab is as bad as anyone, despite near miss in Tallahassee and win over Alcorn. They are ill-equipped to deal with this Gus Malzahn offense, despite two weeks to prep. On the other side, Tulsa can't be too let down, as realistically they had little chance to play with OU for 60 minutes. This line has been bet way out of whack... but it doesn't fall anywhere near the number. Either they are as flat as a board and win by 14 or less - or do what I expect and handle biz.
The play: Tulsa minus 20 for a small bet and -22.5 for a big one (yeah, so much for getting the best of the number)
I have no idea what to make of Louisville. Part of me says that NC State won't stop them and can't exchange punches. But if Cuse can go to the Pizza Palace and hang 38 or whatever, then why can't a Tom O'Brien-coached team at home? Pass.
G-Tech has lost two straight but Chan has an awful habit of biting you in the ass when you least expect it. Luckily for me, I've been on the right side of these an awful lot of times over the years and I like him to contain the two dangerous Clemson backs and do it again today in Atlanta. The rush defense is still their strength and I'm not sure that, despite gaudy numbers so far, that Harper can take advantage of any flaws in the pass defense. Chan 8-1 ATS off BTB losses over the years. Big revenger as well.
The play: G-Tech plus 3 for a medium bet.
Thanks to Dr. Bob for getting me a price on what's becoming my favorite play of the season. Maryland is off a crushing loss at Wake Forest in a game it dominated for about 40 minutes. Rutgers is off a bye but I'm not sure they needed one after their offensive start. Teel faces a Maryland pass defense that leads the ACC and is ranked No. 9 nationally. Can they play their ball control running style long enough and effectively enough to stay competitive with Rutgers? Maryland has an average time of possession advantage of 8:32 so far, and Lattimore has already rushed for seven touchdowns. If Heyward-Bey can make a big play early and the Turtles can withstand a furious Rutgers onslaught early, they should be able to keep this one close throughout.
I'm calling for the outright upset.
THe plays: Maryland plus 840 ML small and plus 18.5 for a big bet.
Not interested in Ohio State. Most forget that the Gophers have a new coach, not Mason - Tressel was interested in beating the piss out of him every time... The Gopher offense has been playing better each week and if it can avoid turnovers, it should be able to score just enough to stay inside the number (or get inside the back door)... I said I'd take 24 if I can, and now I can.
The play: Minnesota plus 24 for a small bet.
No opinion on USC/Washington. Huskies seem to be regressing after Ohio State loss, and the brutal schedule might be taking its toll. But not laying large points on road with USC - even though "pour it on Pete" is well aware of what's happening in the polls.
Purdue was a 14.5 dog in SB last year - and now they lay more than three touchdowns. What in the name of Touchdown (or should it be FIRST DOWN) Jesus is going on? Too much firepower on Boiler offense to take points, but no way am I laying this many to Irish.
Rocky and his Lobos have been a popular play at the shop this week and with BYU's noticeable differences in performances between Provo and road efforts, can't say I much blame them... But visitors are 5-0 ATS last 5 in this series and this is by far the biggest test New Mexico will have seen to date. Favorite will be my bet if it goes down to 3 - otherwise it's a pass.
No opinion in Wazzou/Arizona. Two "stay-aways" for the time being. Note big revenge angle for WSU, who lost as a DD-home fave last season - a loss that sent the season spiraling out of control.
I just can't figure out the Pac-10 yet, hahaha... no interest in ASU/Stanford either. Friends I respect say points could be aplenty here, as Tree offense is in decent gear under Harbaugh's watchful eye, but ASU has a different gear and if they show up, could hang a substantial number at the Farm. Pass.
No interest in either WAC Bulldogs; Fresno has been on quite an ATS slide while at least La Tech playing hard for new coach Dooley. Fresno no covers last four meetings between the two and 1-6 ATS last 7 at home. Still, it looks cheap to me.
Cincy travelling to West Coast... Well, I'm sick of trying to beat them, but I'll be damned if I lay three scores to a motivated foe 2,000 miles away.
To the shit games - three of my favorite ones this week....
A great spot to take a large price with U-La-La this week. Central Florida just mercilessly blasted Memphis last week, while U-La-La lost another home game last week - a game they SHOULD have gotten the money by the way, haha - but 117 points allowed in three home losses to Ohio, McNeese and Troy certainly puts fear into me here... Fenroy is going to miss, but U-La-La has the sixth-ranked rushing offense in the nation. Desormeaux leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards per game. UCF has a defense that is still doing a lot of tweaking and readjusting with some players returning from injuries. Definitely a letdown spot for the Knights after Texas and the conference opener.
The play: U-La-La plus 22 for a medium bet.
No opinion on FIU/MTSU. Lot of money on the dog, and while they are certainly stepping down in class, that's not too many points considering they ain't sniffed victory in two years.
Eternally optimistic UK fans will look at the Arkansas win last week, the Louisville win before, and the slow strides (but now 9 covers in their last 10 games, I believe) of the Brooks Era and say that they should overpower Florida Atlantic today in Rexington.
I look at Louisiana-Monroe last year, a 2-point win... Kent State in the first half this season (a game that was close, but Kent had almost 200 more yards of offense) .... and UK's rare situation of being a 20-plus fave and relishing the chance to take it with a very solid, opportunistic and veteran Owl team that has played in far tougher venues than Commonwealth Stadium the last few years. Florida Atlantic is second in I-A football in turnover margin (plus 13 on the year!) and even though Woodson doesn't throw it away - ever - the Owls should be able to have enough firepower to match the Cats punch for punch. Big lookahead for UK, which has South Carolina on deck.
The play: Florida Atlantic plus 24 for a big bet.
North Texas has nothing that resembles a defense, but not interested in laying points with a demoralized Arkansas team that is likely playing for nothing more than the LSU game and/or a minor bowl at this point.
Monroe has a quick-strike offense and now is catching a hefty number at Troy this week. The Trojans are playing well but I'll try to beat them again this week, as I only had them laying 10 and can take 13 here. Calvin Dawson ran for 118 yards against them in Monroe last season, a 22-16 Injun win. Revenge for Troy but Weatherbie's offense can match points with virtually anyone in the Sun Belt.
The play: UL-Monroe plus 13 for a medium bet.
GL!!!
:cheers:
Miami looked great vs. Ayyunem and has extra time to rest. Note close win (struggle to the end) in Durham last year... I lean Duke just because the Devils have improved more, perhaps, than they have received credit for (beat Northwestern, and almost Navy)... Lot of points - and Duke is 7-2 in their last 9 as a road dog.
Carolina is awfully young and will struggle to score much against a VT defense that's been solid save for the Baton Rouge debacle. No interest in laying it here, as Beamer wants to stay on Butchie's good side (in the future, UNC will be loaded and any blowouts are sure to go in Davis's mental bank)...
Akron and UConn have combined to play some high-scoring games in the last couple of meetings. While the offenses seem a little pedestrian this time around, can't ignore such a low number here. I expect at least 24 from each team, which gets this easily over the number. Also lean dog but total looks better.
The play: OVER 43 in Storrs for a medium bet.
Indiana sure looks enticing at this price. I mean, I made the game six. This is the same Iowa that lost to Iowa State of all people. The Hoosiers were beaten pretty good up front by Illinois last week. That, and the big revenger at Kinnick for the Hawks, is slowing me down.
THe play: Indiana plus 11 for a small bet.
Messy State has quietly played unbeaten ball since the lidlifter at home to LSU. But those untested new MSU QB's are up against it here against fast and aggressive Spurrier defense that played very solid after the break in Baton Rouge last out. Letdown? Pass.
Temple and Army are two bad teams. I have a friend with a theory - when two bad teams play, don't bother with the side - just play OVER. Since I made it much higher, I'll buy it (for those who have heard another theory - take the points - well, another sharp friend of mine subscribes to that one here)...
The play: OVER 46 at West Point for a medium bet.
AFA and Navy meet in a C-I-C battle - the first without Fisher at the helm for awhile. Johnson has owned the CIC trophy in his first four seasons. But the Navy were a 30-15 covering machine under him; now they are 0-fer-2007. Pass.
Ball State took the Cornshitters to the gun last week, with a dropped TD pass from Love being the difference between "close" and "finally" against a BCS team. Not sold on Nebraska at all, and BSU's run game figures to take a hit now that MiQuale Lewis tore an ACL and is out for the year. If Barfalo can figure out what Miami did in the opener in Muncie, expect the Bulls and Willy to keep this one close for a good part of the game. Missed the value so I have to pass.
Not sure where they come up with the total in the Mount Pleasant matchup, and I'm no fan of a bad CMU team laying points to a NIU team that's had the deed on them since Joe Novak started getting talent coming to DeKalb about a decade ago. Neither team interests me, and I made the total 53. They got me.
THe play: UNDER 59.5 in Mount Pleasant for a medium bet.
No big fan of Michigan laying a big tariff in their first roadie of the season, even though Sutton will sit for the Wildcats. Still, NU 12-6 ATS at home last 18 and Lloyd 6-14-1 on the road laying it after a SU/ATS win. Pass.
Cuse laying points on the road now after beating Louisville? Come on. They are STILL being outgained by MORE THAN 230 YARDS PER GAME!!! Miami injury bug definitely noted but at home, I expect better out of them than a loss to these lowly bums. I nibbled.
The play: Miami O Moneyline for a medium bet
Sixty percent chance of rain forecast at Rice-Eccles Stadium today. Utah is an enigma but the Ute defense should be able to shut down a listless USU offense. Meanwhile, Utah might flex its muscles for a bit but hard to ignore a shutout in Vegas (?).
The play: UNDER 46 in Utah
I might lose this one, but I'll take pupil against teacher once again. Tedford broke the Bellotti hex last fall and now, in a matchup of near-equal teams, I get a chance to take a touchdown. The Bears are about as live as a 'dog' as I've seen all season. Jackson should be fully healthy and could make the difference. Stanford exposed some defensive flaws in the Ducks at the Farm last week and me thinks Tedford will do the same today.
The plays: Cal plus 7 (I would take 6.5 now as I expect it to go away) for a medium bet. ML for a small bet. OVER 72.5 for a small bet.
Gonna watch Bama/FSU first half for an idea there. Gut-wrenching loss for Bammer, while Noles coming off a bye. Fisher vs. Saban matchup a bit intriguing. Suspensions for Noles are mostly outside the FB program. Still, worth watching. Pass.
Mississippi owns most trend edges in Athens but I can't recommend either side in that one, as Jorja coming off big win and in the middle of Bama/Tenny sammich... but own far superior firepower on both sides.
After watching South Florida last night, it occurred to me that Auburn's first four home foes were prolly a little better than advertised at first. Yes, Florida is in a big revenge spot and hung 59 against their first home SEC foe... but Tommy T is 7-0-1 ATS in Game 4 against an unbeaten foe... and is 30-18 ATS on the SEC road since coming to the plains. The stout Aubbie defense is catching a boatload of points, and if the offense doesn't give the ball away and give free points to Tebow and Co., this one has the potential to stay VERY close...
The play: Auburn plus 18 for a big bet.
Tough to call the UCLA/Oregon State game. I made UCLA the small fave before the QB injury situation cropped up. Remember, Sammie also gonna miss for OSU. Olson is likely to go. No clue; pass.
A lot of love going to Zooker and the Illini. To be honest, most of you know from back in the Covers days that he is one of my favorite coaches. He got the raw end of the stick in Gainesville and that national title they won last year should be one where he gets a ring; he recruited all that talent. He is doing it again in Champaign but these are young kids. They are capable of going to Bloomington and beating IU, but if Penn State shows up anywhere near the right state of mind, they are far superior at this point than Illinois. I lost betting against the Zooker last week but he's also one of my favorite coaches because of a superb ATS record betting his games going back five years... and I'm going against him again today - albeit smaller, because of the possible Penn State letdown.
The play: Penn State -3 for a medium bet.
Two teams that are still overvalued despite being unbeaten collide today in Madison. I made it seven and am not interested in either side.
Iowa State is still bad, but showing strides of improvement (I thought Toledo would gut them like a fish at the Glass Bowl last week but they really should have won outright after beating Iowa); Nebraska fire getting hot for AD and coach after Ball State should have won in Lincoln last week. Lot of points to lay but listless Cyclone offense should struggle to trade punches with fired up Corn.
K-State knows it can beat Tejas, as evidenced by last year's Manhattan triumph as 15-point dog... but not interested in taking - lots of people are writing off the Longhorns and I don't think that's too wise considering they are still unblemished on the season. Lot of points but in this revenger, I'll pass - at least for a half.
Nevada has a great ATS record under Ault and against UNLV and blah blah blah - fact is, this Vegas unit has turned the corner under embattled Sanford, and this is the next step. The Fremont Cannon comes back to Vegas as the MWC surprise contender continues to make strides forward under emerging QB Dixon. All touts in the world have pushed people to bet Reno up to ridiculous price.
I would bet almost anything that Walters comes in on the dog and brings it back to 2 or so at kickoff...
The play: UNLV plus 3.5 for a big bet and ML for a medium bet.
UTEP and SMU are both better defensively than they are offensively at this point in the season. The Ponies stiffened up on defense vs. TCU last week and I expect that to continue this time out against UTEP. If special teams don't play a part, it should go down to the wire - please stay out of overtime!
The play: UNDER 61 for a medium bet in Dallas.
No clue how to play the Hawaii/Idaho game. Gun to head, lean Fave and Over. But who knows. lol - ask HG...
I read a tout writeup earlier this week that made me laugh - "sensitive viewers who still find it difficult to look at troubling images of post-Katrina New Orleans had better stay the hell away from this telecast"... what's even more laughable is that ESPN decided to clog one of their networks at noon with this mess. 41.5 and 51 - if you can find places that take LSU/OVER or Tulane/UNDER parlays, then go for it. Otherwise, pass...
Lots of money has come for Colorado State, the best winless team in America. When will the streak end? The longer it goes on, the better chance that you won't see Sonny on the CSU sidelines next season. Too bad; a class act. But a brutal schedule and some breakdowns that have cost them wins will likely leave the Rams 0-4. Pass.
Vandy in very unfamiliar role of laying three-plus scores against an overmatched foe. Still, can't recommend either side and I made it right at the number.
Dr. Bob hammered into Toledo, and some others also recommend the Rockets this week. However, WMU's brutal early season schedule could start reaping some benefits as early as today. The big win over CCST last week was evidently very impressive, as Gold Sheet has them ranked No. 2 in I-AA and the Broncos destroyed them. This is definitely a game to watch the line movement (ANY TOLEDO GAME IS!!!!)... but I will play the Bronco ML small for now.
The plays: WMU ML small - if the line goes to 3, then a medium bet on WMU and more ML fun as well...
Another BOB MAC Special in Athens, but not sure why all the touts are caressing and loving Kent - the Flashes are 113th in turnover margin - a troubling stat when you have a game with two predominantly rushing teams. McRae gutted the Flashes for 136 in a win at Kent last fall and that Flash defense has already yielded 10 rushing TDs in 2007. Special teams played a big part in that Kent loss, but the Bobcats did limit Jarvis to 34 yards on 12 carries. Both teams had tough losses, but give OU the nod thanks to coaching and the HF edge... ANother game where I expect Billy to come on my side and drop this price...
The play: Ohio U plus 3 and ML for a combined big bet.
Colorado looks to be finally putting it all together on offense but you can be sure Danny Hawkins wanted at least a LITTLE more time to prep for this battle against Oklahoma, which looks to be playing at least as well as LSU and USC to this point. An awfully large tariff in a road conference game, but with an extra day to prep, the Stoops Troops should roll again. Pass.
Baylor's recent offensive successes, coupled with the Fresno/A&M game that was a dead-ass under before going to 3 OTs, have made this total so high that now it's playable. Szymanski is still a green sophomore and will make mistakes and now that the Bears are done with the cupcakes, expect a return to struggling against a physical and embarassed Ayyunem defense this week. I give the Bears a good shot at covering the large tariff if their smallish defense can continue to keep the struggling Aggie offense in check.
THe play: UNDER 59.5 for a medium bet.
I have no clue on what to make of Pitt/Virginia. Until the true frosh QB gets acclimated with what's going on in Wannstedt's offense, no interest in Pitt - UVA should also struggle offensively but they are playing with much more confidence and at under a touchdown, could well get the cash. Total would interest me but any college football game in the 30s makes it awfully tough to go UNDER.
BOB and others are all over the Houston bandwagon, and it would be easy to back them at less than DD's against an ECU squad that's been reeling as of late. But Skip Holtz is sure to bring his "A-game" against a team that's much closer to his class than VT and WV; and note his 18-6 ATS record first two years and visitor 5-1 ATS last six in this series. Pirates a little banged-up making this trip, so I pass.
Big mismatch in talent today in Tulsa in C-USA lidlifter for both teams. U-ab is as bad as anyone, despite near miss in Tallahassee and win over Alcorn. They are ill-equipped to deal with this Gus Malzahn offense, despite two weeks to prep. On the other side, Tulsa can't be too let down, as realistically they had little chance to play with OU for 60 minutes. This line has been bet way out of whack... but it doesn't fall anywhere near the number. Either they are as flat as a board and win by 14 or less - or do what I expect and handle biz.
The play: Tulsa minus 20 for a small bet and -22.5 for a big one (yeah, so much for getting the best of the number)
I have no idea what to make of Louisville. Part of me says that NC State won't stop them and can't exchange punches. But if Cuse can go to the Pizza Palace and hang 38 or whatever, then why can't a Tom O'Brien-coached team at home? Pass.
G-Tech has lost two straight but Chan has an awful habit of biting you in the ass when you least expect it. Luckily for me, I've been on the right side of these an awful lot of times over the years and I like him to contain the two dangerous Clemson backs and do it again today in Atlanta. The rush defense is still their strength and I'm not sure that, despite gaudy numbers so far, that Harper can take advantage of any flaws in the pass defense. Chan 8-1 ATS off BTB losses over the years. Big revenger as well.
The play: G-Tech plus 3 for a medium bet.
Thanks to Dr. Bob for getting me a price on what's becoming my favorite play of the season. Maryland is off a crushing loss at Wake Forest in a game it dominated for about 40 minutes. Rutgers is off a bye but I'm not sure they needed one after their offensive start. Teel faces a Maryland pass defense that leads the ACC and is ranked No. 9 nationally. Can they play their ball control running style long enough and effectively enough to stay competitive with Rutgers? Maryland has an average time of possession advantage of 8:32 so far, and Lattimore has already rushed for seven touchdowns. If Heyward-Bey can make a big play early and the Turtles can withstand a furious Rutgers onslaught early, they should be able to keep this one close throughout.
I'm calling for the outright upset.
THe plays: Maryland plus 840 ML small and plus 18.5 for a big bet.
Not interested in Ohio State. Most forget that the Gophers have a new coach, not Mason - Tressel was interested in beating the piss out of him every time... The Gopher offense has been playing better each week and if it can avoid turnovers, it should be able to score just enough to stay inside the number (or get inside the back door)... I said I'd take 24 if I can, and now I can.
The play: Minnesota plus 24 for a small bet.
No opinion on USC/Washington. Huskies seem to be regressing after Ohio State loss, and the brutal schedule might be taking its toll. But not laying large points on road with USC - even though "pour it on Pete" is well aware of what's happening in the polls.
Purdue was a 14.5 dog in SB last year - and now they lay more than three touchdowns. What in the name of Touchdown (or should it be FIRST DOWN) Jesus is going on? Too much firepower on Boiler offense to take points, but no way am I laying this many to Irish.
Rocky and his Lobos have been a popular play at the shop this week and with BYU's noticeable differences in performances between Provo and road efforts, can't say I much blame them... But visitors are 5-0 ATS last 5 in this series and this is by far the biggest test New Mexico will have seen to date. Favorite will be my bet if it goes down to 3 - otherwise it's a pass.
No opinion in Wazzou/Arizona. Two "stay-aways" for the time being. Note big revenge angle for WSU, who lost as a DD-home fave last season - a loss that sent the season spiraling out of control.
I just can't figure out the Pac-10 yet, hahaha... no interest in ASU/Stanford either. Friends I respect say points could be aplenty here, as Tree offense is in decent gear under Harbaugh's watchful eye, but ASU has a different gear and if they show up, could hang a substantial number at the Farm. Pass.
No interest in either WAC Bulldogs; Fresno has been on quite an ATS slide while at least La Tech playing hard for new coach Dooley. Fresno no covers last four meetings between the two and 1-6 ATS last 7 at home. Still, it looks cheap to me.
Cincy travelling to West Coast... Well, I'm sick of trying to beat them, but I'll be damned if I lay three scores to a motivated foe 2,000 miles away.
To the shit games - three of my favorite ones this week....
A great spot to take a large price with U-La-La this week. Central Florida just mercilessly blasted Memphis last week, while U-La-La lost another home game last week - a game they SHOULD have gotten the money by the way, haha - but 117 points allowed in three home losses to Ohio, McNeese and Troy certainly puts fear into me here... Fenroy is going to miss, but U-La-La has the sixth-ranked rushing offense in the nation. Desormeaux leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards per game. UCF has a defense that is still doing a lot of tweaking and readjusting with some players returning from injuries. Definitely a letdown spot for the Knights after Texas and the conference opener.
The play: U-La-La plus 22 for a medium bet.
No opinion on FIU/MTSU. Lot of money on the dog, and while they are certainly stepping down in class, that's not too many points considering they ain't sniffed victory in two years.
Eternally optimistic UK fans will look at the Arkansas win last week, the Louisville win before, and the slow strides (but now 9 covers in their last 10 games, I believe) of the Brooks Era and say that they should overpower Florida Atlantic today in Rexington.
I look at Louisiana-Monroe last year, a 2-point win... Kent State in the first half this season (a game that was close, but Kent had almost 200 more yards of offense) .... and UK's rare situation of being a 20-plus fave and relishing the chance to take it with a very solid, opportunistic and veteran Owl team that has played in far tougher venues than Commonwealth Stadium the last few years. Florida Atlantic is second in I-A football in turnover margin (plus 13 on the year!) and even though Woodson doesn't throw it away - ever - the Owls should be able to have enough firepower to match the Cats punch for punch. Big lookahead for UK, which has South Carolina on deck.
The play: Florida Atlantic plus 24 for a big bet.
North Texas has nothing that resembles a defense, but not interested in laying points with a demoralized Arkansas team that is likely playing for nothing more than the LSU game and/or a minor bowl at this point.
Monroe has a quick-strike offense and now is catching a hefty number at Troy this week. The Trojans are playing well but I'll try to beat them again this week, as I only had them laying 10 and can take 13 here. Calvin Dawson ran for 118 yards against them in Monroe last season, a 22-16 Injun win. Revenge for Troy but Weatherbie's offense can match points with virtually anyone in the Sun Belt.
The play: UL-Monroe plus 13 for a medium bet.
GL!!!
:cheers:
