Saturday, September 8th plays and discussion thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Well, I cannot really describe how angry I am after week one. I feel like I capped the week pretty good. Once again first half plays killed me. The only first half plays that I do well on are when I tail Hunt. I don't do them well on my own. USC played so conservative. Sickening really. That team has issues on the O-line and a bit in secondary. Suprised to say least. Arizona State total was tought pill to swallow. I capped it right but lost. The worst one was New Mexico though. They domianted every stat in that game and lose 10-6. Thats one of Steels misleading finals games. Nebraska, Michigan St, the overs in Mizzou and WVU were very nice though. Just pissed I started so great and ended badly. Thats capping though and ended up exactly even on the day.

Other thoughts from week one:

Oklahoma looked very good. Expected them to roll but Bradford looked really good and defense was as advertised. The Canes did what I thought they would but I couldn't back them w/o having seen Freeman more than once. Glennon still fuckin sucks. I really wish they would have rolled to help my cuase this week. LSU is the shit even with the bad coach. I am one of the few Tyler Donavan supporters until today. Kid will be just fine. Cals defense is a joke. Tenny's d-line showed promise for a bit. Notre Dame is worse than advertised. Techs defense is mean as well. Sam Kellar is doing just fine and Rudy C. is back to old self at ASU.

Well, its on to week 2. I feel good about week one from a capping standpoint but the end result sucks. Thats my own fault and its a lesson learned. These are the games I am targeting next week. First team listed is my lean. I have numbers I am looking for on each game:

West Virginia @ Marshall
Northwestern vs Nevada
Nebraska @ Wake Forest
Kansas St vs San Jose St
California @ Colorado St
Oregon at Michigan TOTAL
Florida St vs UAB
Penn St vs Notre Dame
UCLA @ BYU
Texas Tech vs UTEP
LSU vs Virginia Tech
Arizona St vs Colorado
Wisconsin @ UNLV
Boston College vs NCSU



Hope everyone enjoyed week one. I am embarrased by my bottom line and Big Blue(lol). That being said great things were learned today and I feel good how I capped the card. Can't wait for lines out tomorrow. Hopefully a few soft.

I will be locking this thread till I get my plays/write-ups in tomorrow. If you want to talk about them they will be in RJ's Sunday Coffee thread for discussion.

Last thing. Anyone who lost a game(s) today. Look back at it and understand why it lost. It may have been handicapped perfect and you lost. You may have misread it. You may have gotten a bad line. Biggest thing is learn from week to week. I do it and always will. Read your boxscores and recaps and follow the local guys at CTG.
 
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Let me preface the plays by stating that I didn't get the earliest lines due to a outing today but at same point on these three games I still got well under what I was expecting. That I am thankful for. Looks like Guys got right in and played today. Congrats


West Virginia @ Marshall

West Virginia started out the season in typical strong fashion. The offense was lights out and the defense is somewhat improved, especially in secondary. They scored early and often and everyone got into the act. Marshall came into the season with low expectations and certainly didn't fail that thought for any of us. Now they come home to face the dynamic running game of WVU.

Heres what I noticed from Marshall in week one. They put themselves into a lot of third down situations. They hit 33% of 18 tries and that just kills an offense. Thats way too much pressure doing that so many times. The Canes meanwhile only had to face 8 such instances meaning the defense wasn't all that good. The passing game put up 35 attempts to muster a measely 183 yards. Not a good ratio. The biggest sta though is this. Marshall ghave up 260 yards rushing to the Canes. Miami is far from a rushing powerhouse the last few years. Quite a few guys had nice running games for the U.

West Virginia did it thru the air and on the ground. They had 226 passing and 316 rushing. Pat White looks better than ever and Slayton and Co. in the backfield are a nightmare. When we talked Big East this off-season I noted WVU's losses and struggles last few years. Teams that limit their rushing like East Carolina, Rutgers and South Florida last season are the teams that play them tough or win outright. Last year against Marshall WVU racked up over 300 yards rushing and an efficient 173 on 11 pass completions in a 32 point win.

Short an sweet this game is a huge mismatch. Strengths take on weaknesses here. Last year the big story in this game was Marshall all pupmed for the rivalry game and they got dusted. I expect the same this year and expect an ugly home opener for the Herd. WVU 52-13

West Virginia -25 -110 4 units





Notre Dame @ Penn State

Well, I think we all remember this game qite well last season. I had Notre Dame pretty big and they won huge but not before PSU had some very impressive runs from Hunt and drove down field several times only to cough those opportunities up. I now have Penn State as the front-runner in Big-Ten since they should have no problem winning in 3 weeks.

Notre Dame is a bad football team,. When myself and others mentioned perhaps a 1-7 start it should not have been laughed at. After watching Choice run nuts on them I think now that MSU is a great play in South Bend coming up. I liked them a bit intially but now know that could be a sweet spot. They did get 13 first downs with 122 yards of offense(lmao). Just a pathetic performance overall. The defense is still horrible. I cannot take any positives out of this game for Notre Dame.

No need to talk about Penn State week one. They took care of business. In this game Saturday I expect total domination. This team has revenge, confidence since the bowl game last year and a mean defense. Notre Dame thought it was hard to score against Tech. Things don't get any easier this week. This will be an embarrasing game for The Irish. Lions roll 41-10

(please note that although line has moved 5 points its still WAY under what I thought thwey could set it at..therefore the max play..have been waiting for this one for months now)

Penn St -16 -110 5 units





Virginia Tech @ LSU

A game many of us are looking forward to this weekend. The Hokies go into Death Valley for the seasons first matchup of top 10 teams. They played the first half of this home and home back in 2003 I believe. I remember having Hokies and final score was 26-8 I think. The game was too long ago to have any implications obviously.

I know there were a lot of LSU non-believers and Flynn doubters entering last Thursday but LSU answered a lot of questions I think. Yes, it is Messy State but the fact is the defense is as mean as advertised and Flynn is a very capable quarterback for this time. Thats not an easy place to play and he handled it very nicely and had a efficient game thru air and on ground.

Virginia Tech had their emotional first game since the tradegy last April. Many expected them to simply roll. I admit I figured they would/could but never touched game because I am not a big fan of Sean Glennon. His numbers were not as bad as you would think but the bottom line is results and 10 points via the offense in a 17-7 win isn't all that compelling. Brandon Orer also had a tough time getting going.

I have loved LSU in this game for months. I figured we would see around 10. I had to re-evaluate that after Saturdays affairs. I see that BM opened about a 10. I am happy it pushed back down from 13.5 to the number I got. You have one great defense(LSU) and one very good defense(VT). The big difference is on offense. LSU isn't yet a powerhouse on that side of ball but they are much better than the Hokies. LSU has it all going for them in this game. They have a night game in Baton Rouge. They have a confident leader. They have a defense that will make Glennons life hell. And after midnight eastern that day they will have a very big win. Tigers take it 27-7

LSU -12.5 -110 3 units





Thats the card for now. I am still waiting on two lines and two totals. I can possibly see a few more plays but will not be unhappy with just this card to get Week two going. Any questions about these matchups or other games please post them in this thread. Good luck to everyone this week.
 
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Few questions I would like to pose to the forum...

I keep hearing how Temple was soooo successful on Navy's defense but they only had 275 yards. Anyone watch the game? Just want some opinions.

Did you notice any 'shady' happenings in games? I like to heard because its always nice to spot some teams tanking for cash each year. I would refer more to mid to lower conferences here.

Most impressive QB performance other than Colt Brennan?
 
keep hearing how Temple was soooo successful on Navy's defense but they only had 275 yards. Anyone watch the game? Just want some opinions.
temple had several first downs called back on penalty that resulted in 4th down punts. i believe they were not forced to punt once in the first half without a penalty killing the series of downs. not sure how much of this was great temple improvement or how much was naby returning just 3 or 4 starters though.
Most impressive QB performance other than Colt Brennan?<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
i was impressed with both qb's in the csu/col game. hanie and hawkins both looked sharp and in command of the offenses. unfortunately i was also impressed by sween of wyoming.
 
I think where Temple was impressive was in the passing game. I didn't watch Temple but did a decent amount of reading on the game. I did watch Buffalo and they can't defend the pass if they had 22 guys out there. There is a reason a WR who had 290yards all yr in 2006 had 240 vs. them. I think Temple should be able to get about 250+ through the air and score more than the 3 points they put up last yr. Also Temple defense has to be considered a little improved as well. Last yr Navy blasted them to the tune of 42-7 and they picked up 420 on the ground. This yr Temple actually won the T.O.P battle, they held them to less first downs, and 361 yards on the ground. Overall as a team, they are more improved than Buffalo imo. QB went 21-29 with 200yards, 2td and 2 turnovers.
 
Thanks fellas. I knew DiMichele was solid but it just was sounding like the Owls had 400-450 yards or something in the game.

Thanks for the thoughts Kyle
 
the one thing about the temple pass game is that it was all short. dimichele ( spell ?) looked a lot less comfortable when throwing downfield. but temple willbe able to run on buffalo as well. and temple hit hard in the navy game, taking on ballard up the middle with success. the front seven of temple is one of the most improved in all of colelge football, though they probably had more room for improvement than most teams.
 
Like the plays BAR... I hit WV and Penn St early...and thought about LSU. But with it close to being a 2 TD spread.. I am a bit leary. May still play LSU though.
 
Bar,
All over my Tigers @ 12.5. Added WVA play as well-
Still looking at the rest-
Scarl+6.5-Spurrier FACTOR owns Richt and GA
Penn St-16-loving WIlliams and Morreli
Miss St -7 Henig bounces back plus MissSt 7-1 vs Tulane ATS
Miami+11-Shannon D vs OK D
Oreg/Mich over?? like this one alot
Also Neb,TENN,FLA
 
Tigator:

Spurrier might of owned UGA at UF but he is 0-2 at SC and the Gamecocks are 4-11 since 1992 vs. UGA. The good news is that 4 of the last 6 of these games have been close and decided by 6 or less
 
Last thing. Anyone who lost a game(s) today. Look back at it and understand why it lost. It may have been handicapped perfect and you lost. You may have misread it. You may have gotten a bad line. Biggest thing is learn from week to week. I do it and always will. Read your boxscores and recaps and follow the local guys at CTG.
Click to expand...

This is really good advice, not only for games you lost but for every bet you made, wins too. I can't tell you how many patterns I have found in games that I have lost and learned to see spot them in prospective plays. It also works just as well the other way around too.

also, 27-7 was the exact score that popped into my head for the LSU-Va Tech game as well. Do you have any clue on where the line on this game is gonna move next?
 
RSMS9999 said:
This is really good advice, not only for games you lost but for every bet you made, wins too. I can't tell you how many patterns I have found in games that I have lost and learned to see spot them in prospective plays. It also works just as well the other way around too.

also, 27-7 was the exact score that popped into my head for the LSU-Va Tech game as well. Do you have any clue on where the line on this game is gonna move next?
Click to expand...


BTW...on that PM you sent I'll check in 5 minutes on it.

As far as line goes I saw it opened 10 at BM I believe and went to 13.5 and crept back to 12.5 by time I got home.

I would see another point going back on...come Saturday you'll se some faders money come in...I think
 
Like all 3 plays alot, ended up with WV at -24.5 (still line on TheGreek). I also got PSU but at 16.5. Only have them for a unit now...I was expecting something in the 10-12 range but I missed the open. I may add more because they should roll.

What do you think of the Badgers at 24.5? I was hoping for a 21 spot but didn't get it and I haven't pulled the trigger yet.

How about Western Michigan giving a point to the Hoosiers? I want to bet that one as well but haven't yet.
 
GL on the plays BAR. Nice writeups.
I like LSU and Penn St, but I sure wasn't expecting those lines to wind up so high. Thought I'd get less than 10 with LSU and 14 or less with Penn St. I'll probably play them anyway, especially since PSU is a 5 unit play for you.
:cheers:
 
Macdamn,

I had same intial thoughts before week one on potential lines. I realized I had to adjust after week one and still got those games at in what my opinion is "good numbers" even after the intial surge.

Sparty,

LOL-My man Crick had a helluva day Saturday. He and Javon going to have huge years. I am going to check over line movements this afternoon but I believe that Wisky has dropped since open. I expected lower line too. I think they can win big but at same time haven't researched UNLV's game one enough to make a solid assessmemt. As far as WMU goes thats a tough game for me right now. Its such a huge game for a Big-10 team to being going into K-Zoo/Waldo stadium. Place will be jumping. WMU is much better than they showed in week one. IU is also improved but it to tough to guage them after week one for this matchup.
 
BAR - I like every single one of those. Also, I like Kentucky and Bama alot!

GL bro!
 
I am a little shocked to see posters liking LSU -12.5, -13 against VA Tech. Do these teams ever cover as favs when playing upper echelon competition from their respective conferences. ACC and SEC are the king of the dog confs.

I think the line is a complete overlay based on LW's results. VA Tech brings the better coaching staff. I see LSU winning 10-6. GL
 
Joe, I have liked LSU all summer...

Line opened 8 but I was comfortable laying up to 13.5 in this game...

I haven't been high on VT like others have. FSYU is the class of that conference IMO this year and VT has gotten much pub when they shouldn't have. Two words...Sean Glennon.
 
Glennon still fuckin sucks
yup, destroyed me in last years bowl game too. deer in headlights look.

FSYU is the class of that conference IMO this year and VT has gotten much pub when they shouldn't have. Two words...Sean Glennon.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
How do you really feel about this qb, BAR ?
 
I don't like Sean Glennon either, but the defenses will rule the day in this game.
 
Love the plays hoss...can't go against WVU now..I'd take it up to 28 honestly.

LSU should roll..very good team...Vtech just doesn't ahve the O like you said, and they didn't have it for the most part last year either.
 
I agree about VT's offense and Glennon. Same old team. Maybe a bit of improvement but not as much as anticipated.

I also give VT a slight benefit of the doubt for coming out emotionally flat after that long, somber intro.

But at 12'? Jeez that's a spread for the game.
 
it is a bit high, but that hangover affect applies here..that team has to be emotionally drained...plus LSU had 2 extra days to prepare.
 
Joe,

Two good defenses is right. One is top 3 in country and other is maybe top 20. Dominance vs very good. Then the offenses don;t compare either. Add in homefield, home opener and I think you'll see a convincing LSU win.

Hunt,

Marshall is going to get creamed. The recipe is simple. Bad rush defenses do not cover against WVU.

RJ,

I wish I lived in vegas and could of had that soft ass line at 8. Oh well. I just cannot see Tech reaching double digits. I think 7 may be stretching it. Ther LSU defense will set up a couple scores and the offense will have some rives. 27-7. Bing-Bango-Bongo.
 
WVU will win by 30pts at least. We will see another big number from Slaton and White.
 
I wouldn't say LSU is top 3 and VT is top 20 when it comes to defense...

I have them more like 1st and 5th respectively.

However, LSU's offense has playmaking ability while VT's does not... VT's offense right now couldn't hold Appy St's jock... LSU dominates field position... and 12 points is not alot when you consider that VT will honestly never really have a chance to move the ball consistently in this one.
 
all you guys sure make a convincing case for wv in that marshall contest. this play is like a chia pet for me ... it keeps growing on me.

BAR mind sharing your predicted halftime and final scores for this one?
 
This thread is busy.. i like it very much.
Michigan must be embarrassed so for that reason I like Michigan-18 vs Bowling State.

I like Texas Tech/UTEP Over 64. Last week TT put up 49 points vs studly SMU, ok not studly, but the spread was -8 and they won by 40.
This week it is Texas Tech -24 vs UTEP... I think a team should be able to put up maybe 14-17 against them and Texas Tech can do the rest.


Vtech/LSU OVER 38.5 (someone should use this in a teaser). That is so low.
Vtech must be insulted they are supposed to lose 26-13 (lsu is favored by 12.5) haha so maybe they put up a few touchdowns.

I like Notre Dame +17.5 maybe in a teaser because big boy Notre Dame coach is good.
 
pats3peat said:
This thread is busy.. i like it very much.
Michigan must be embarrassed so for that reason I like Michigan-18 vs Bowling State.

I like Texas Tech/UTEP Over 64. Last week TT put up 49 points vs studly SMU, ok not studly, but the spread was -8 and they won by 40.
This week it is Texas Tech -24 vs UTEP... I think a team should be able to put up maybe 14-17 against them and Texas Tech can do the rest.


Vtech/LSU OVER 38.5 (someone should use this in a teaser). That is so low.
Vtech must be insulted they are supposed to lose 26-13 (lsu is favored by 12.5) haha so maybe they put up a few touchdowns.

I like Notre Dame +17.5 maybe in a teaser because big boy Notre Dame coach is good.
Click to expand...

I got a few thoughts on these games myself so ill share:

I would actually lean Under 64 in that one. Texas Tech has an improved defense this year. UTEP will present a better challenge than SMU, though not a great one. Still, I dont see Texas Tech putting more than 42 on UTEP. UTEP was inept offensively against New Mexico, and Texas Tech's defense is just as good if not better. I dont think UTEP will score more than 14 points in this one. I see something around 42-14, so TT -24 and Under 64 looks good to me.

For me its tough to take the Over in that game, just because as much as VT may be amped up for this game, they could struggle to break double digits in this one. Glennon is just not cutting as a starting qb for a top 10 team. This team couldnt run on East Carolina and I dont think they will be able to against LSU either. This could easily be a 17-6 type game in my opinion.

I think it was a good move naming Claussen the starter for this game and the rest of the season, bc the other 2 guys are just awful. But, Penn State has revenge on their minds after ND ran up the score on them last year in South Bend. I dont see ND doing very much on offense in Claussens first game on the road against one of nations top defenses. We all know how thin the ND defense is as well. Penn State has an average offense but they should still be able to put up 28 to 31 points on that defense. Penn State should win at least 18 points in this one.
 
pats3peat said:
This thread is busy.. i like it very much.
Michigan must be embarrassed so for that reason I like Michigan-18 vs Bowling State.
Click to expand...

It's Bowling Green not Bowling State and Michigan is not playing them Michigan State is, Michigan is playing Oregon.
 
added plays...

Hawaii @ Louisiana Tech

Suprised this line hasn't moved much in last two days. Yes it is Hawaii on the mainland but its also the first time to the States this year. I think this could get real ugly. They refuse to quit scoring and I think could average 50 this year. I won;t say much more because Hawaii guy says it all in his thread

Hawaii -28 -110 1 unit





Troy @ Florida

I stated last week on Saturday night that I am done playing my own first half selections..lmao. I always do well when collaborating with Hunt on these. I don't think he made the play official yet but after hearing his thoughts and researching a bit myself I feel pretty confident in it. The line has jumped two points since it came out 9 hours ago but I just wanted to stay under a key number either way.

Florida -16.5 1H -110 1 unit
 
Responses...

Ray, that leg of the teaser should be Gold. Slaton and White just dominate defenses like this. Should get ugly..and quick. I would advise a first half play even.

Spek, what up bro? I agree that VT won't do much at all offense. Time will tell me if they are a top 5 defense. GL this week

Wizard of odd, I got a bad number but it is still well below what I was looking for.

mets, good thoughts man. UTEP is a bad team and your right about that TT defense. I am going to look into that one a bit more.

tifosi, thanks for clearing that up for our buddy
 
BAR, i love wvu this week and i already logged it in.

one question about that psu game...i could get psu-17 and at first i loved it but i don't know if the qb situation and calling clausen their starter will give the irish some sort of a boost. i know that psu has the far better squad and could easily destroy them saturday but i'd like to know your opinion on that new qb change.
 
SteveMoneydog said:
BAR, i love wvu this week and i already logged it in.

one question about that psu game...i could get psu-17 and at first i loved it but i don't know if the qb situation and calling clausen their starter will give the irish some sort of a boost. i know that psu has the far better squad and could easily destroy them saturday but i'd like to know your opinion on that new qb change.
Click to expand...

I actually love the change in terms of my PSU bet. I will make things easy and qoute my Partner Fondy in what he wrote in another thread...


Thinking about it a bit more I have a few thoughts on Notre Dame...

It's obvious that Clausen doesn't know all of Notre Dames playbook yet. Don't you guys feel that at most they'll be able to run 20-30% of their plays, thus severely limiting the offense and allowing PSU to tee off on them even more? Also, is it possible that the only reason Weis is playing is the kids is to prove that Clausen is NOT the answer? I think it's clear the other two QB's blow in Weis system. While the fan base believes Clausen in the answer, he's obviously not prepared. As a coach wouldn't you think about proving to your fan base that their couch coaching is just as bad as his on the field coaching? I think he may just be tossing the kid to the wolves to prove to the fan base that Clausen can't win either.
 
BAR - Will the Michigan line continue to rise?...

If it hits nine, it'll be tough for me to stay away from Oregon.

GL this week bro. :cheers:
 
Dmac..

I honestly thought that it would get pounded down. I am suprised. I thought Vegas dangled that carrot out there to entice yet the line keeps going up...


I'll have more on this game tonight
 
Yessir..you alright for an Akron boy ;)

FB...Thats my lean too...would have loved to have the early number 'if' I played it...I'll get more thoughts tomorrow on it...





2 added plays..both last night..want to post them now..write-ups plsu a UM-Oregon preview in afternoon tomorrow...


Kentucky -12.5 -110(dimes) 2 units
Michigan-Oregon hova 64.5 -110 1 unit



I put in (dimes) because any other line I play on here is BM...just for reference...

writeups tomorow. RJ Esq, JumponBoard and myself collabed on UK play..and we love it...we went to town on this game last night(wed) and I will give my write-up tomorrow..JOB has a nice one in his thread that I saw.
 
DET.gif
 
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