Saturday, September 8th plays and discussion thread

[B.A.R.]

Kentucky-Kent State Thoughts

As I stated earlier, myself, RJ and Jump really poured over this game the other night. We went quite indepth and think we have a very solid angle here. I had a shitload of notes I cannot find right now so I will just make a sysnopsis of my thoughts with not as much statistical information.

The spread is approx 12-13. Lets look at Kentucky first. How many points do you see thiis powerful offense scoring? I would say that 35-42 minimum is not out of the question. Kents defense is average and they looked okay last week because of competition. Meanwhile UK has a very powerful offense with the best SEC QB and the lightning bolt in the backfield. They played EKU last week but were very impressive and efficient on offense. I expect nothing less in a tuneup to the UL game next week.

The Kentucky defense is always the big question mark. They have nowhere to go but up in truth. They played much better last wek, granted it was EKU. This brings in part two of the equation. How many points do you think Kent can muster. Myhonest opinion is 21 tops. I would say 17-21 is a good guess. Right there my max and mins cover the spread. Those numbers, especially the UK side are being generous.

Tidbits:

Kent kickoffs, depth and coverage were very unimpressive last week at ISU. Short fields for Woodson should KSU score.

Not worried about lookahead. UK wants to be sharp and ready for next weeks game.

 

[xpression syst_m]

BAR,

Do you have a strong opinion on the WVU/Marshall total of 62'-63? I just hate laying points on the road, especially 20+, but agree with the lean.

 

[B.A.R.]

BAR,

Do you have a strong opinion on the WVU/Marshall total of 62'-63? I just hate laying points on the road, especially 20+, but agree with the lean.

Nothing strong. I cannot see over 20 from Marshall. They are anemic. I like WVU to get their 40-55 here. I would alomost say under the more I think of it...but too tough to call.

 

[GoBucksIndy]

GL BAR

 

[xpression syst_m]

good luck tomorrow, missed the boat on Penn State (as im betting on a credit acct and lines didn't show up in time)...thanks for the quick response.

 

[B.A.R.]

Texas Tech -14 -105 1H 1 unit

read Hunts thread..I totally concur though

Ariona St -14 -110 2 units

read bjorks thread..great write-up

 

[B.A.R.]

Bucks..thanks man

xpression...I missed early line too but its still lower than my projection...so..I am happy with it.

 

[brewer]

gl bar. think im just gonna be a spectator tom. wish you CFB guys the best of luck.

 

[B.A.R.]

Here is the Full card in summary

West Virginia -25 -110 4 units
Penn St -16 -110 5 units
LSU -12.5 -110 3 units
Hawaii -28 -110 1 unit
Florida -16.5(H) -110 1 unit
Kentucky -12.5 -110 2 units
Michigan O64.5 -110 1 unit
Texas Tech -14(H) -105 1 unit
Arizona St -14 -110 2 units
Penn St -17 -110 5 units



You may notice the additional play on Penn St. I am playing 1-5 units this year but am this confiden in the game. I actually played another 7.5 units on it yesterday and sold of 2.5 ogf them today to a friend. I was thinking line could get higher after Bobs picks so I did it last night when not around a puter with a local. I have loved the play for months and months dating back to last year. This is what I always have success in so lets hope it hits. Many respected guys feel same way so lets do it.

Heres my thoughts on other leans. Came very close on a lot of these:

I do think last weeks game was a mirage for USF. Also a look ahead. I think it wil be close but just couldn't fire away on it. Couldn't get enough takes on CSU as week became very hectic. I still think thats the side though vs Cal. Situational angles not to mdention a horrid defense the Bears sport. I am not a big beliver in Southern Piss. I think Jeremy Young is dismal at best and Tenny plays well before Florida. I was close on this one. The one I was very close on is UCLA. This is one of my teams this year and I think it could be a double-digit win. I guess the 31-17 mid-4th qtr score last week sticks in my mind. UAB isn't going to score I think down at Doak-Campbell. Trust your instincts on FSU in this game. I like under as well. I still think Vandy is a live home dawg. The hook is sitting there if you like it. Miami(oh) is intriguing as well.


Word to the wise in BGSU-MSU. Minny tore up their defense running last week. MSU could simply just wear them down. This team has a chip on its shoulder and I hope they kinda stumble a bit to give me some value in a few weeks in South Bend.

 

[B.A.R.]

Alright, UM-Oregon Thoughts

Sorry for delaying this. I know I told a few I would have them up on Thursday night and then Friday afternoon but have been busy as hell and just barely dodged a twister tonight..hehe:seeya:


What I saw watching replay of UM-Appy St:

First of all, and this doesn't justify the UM loss, but Appy St is a helluva football team. They remind me of Northwesterns teams from different points in last 10 years. There corners are very physical and the kids were tough mentally. Michigan, we knew, has secondary issues. The schemes sucked for a Ron English defense and they didn't get much pressure. Meanwhile, Armanti and the RB had incredible years last year and they could play on many D-1 teams and start with right systems. Good ballclub at Appy. Michigan on offense had problems on left side of line. Henne also wasn't patient enough. More than anything, they were very uncharacteristic with dumb penalties and simple mistakes. I thought they wore Lions uniforms for a minute(lol). Mike Hart was sensational for playing maybe just over half the game. He was decoy at points..he was in on passing downs and Minor was on run plays. The guys amazing. He deserves better.

Changes for UM this week:

Englemont will start at safety. Super Frosh Warren is at corner. These two played at their posistions in seond half and the defense was much better. I think thats huge. I would say they need pressure up front this week but big thing is containment of Dixon. O-line is healtier so look for a lot more Manningham.

Rant:

Why go for two down 26-31 at end of third qtr? Thats stupid and I hate when collge teams do this. That is one reason they lost. With the two blockd FG's and those two misses on conversions thats 10 points right there.

Lloyd Carr:

The guy gets a lot of flak. He shoul at this point. Was talking to Hunt the other night and I have felt this way for awhile. The game has outgrown Carr. He'll go down with a bad reputation. It won't be as bad as Coops but not good. The thing is, ever since the advent of the BCS a higher priority i placed on the MNC. Teams like UM and OSU wanted to make Rose Bowl every year. Thats not the goal now. Carr wasn't on ship with that of the bat and also didn't recruit correctly as far as speed goes. They have started to right that ship and his successor is going to be well-suited for many years. The fact is, Carr was the BEST big-game coach his first 7-8 years in coaching. His record against top 5/top10/top 20 teams was unreal. It has slipped back since then but for awhile him and his teams could always be counted on in big games.

Tomorow:

I have the over. I cannot see how it doesn't hit. I expect about 200-250 for Mr. hart. Then the passing game will open up. Its then Super Mario time. To win the game Michigan must attack and not be conservative. They will need to score plenty.Oregon should have some fun. Even if UM contains Stewart Dixon can have his way as a dual threat. Game comes down to play-calling by UM, special teams and turnovers(cliche..lol)

Prediction:

Michigan 38
Oregon 35

 

[signalcaller]

GL BAR. So if im reading that right, you have 10 units on PSU altogether, hoping you cash it. . Love the card bro.

 

[Marcus000]

looks solid bro. thinking about hitting the over in the michigan game as well but might just see how the early shit does before hand. also thought about kentucky but the whole possible "lookahead" shit lingers in my head and making me hesistant to pull the trigger. they should easily dispatch with kent state and I don't think they are in any position to overlook any team as they need to beat the ass of teams like kent state to gain respect in the polls.

gl to ya today bro

 

[B.A.R.]

Thank you sir...

trust me..lookahead was keeping me off for longest time but I think they 'sharpen' their skill this week..

shit..if they don;t even better value next week

 

[RetroVK]

Hope Joe Pa comes through for ya BAR, gl

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks Kyle

yes Signal..I wasn't going tro post full amount but said what the hell..I'll take it if it somehow loses

 

[Tifosi]

You may notice the additional play on Penn St. I am playing 1-5 units this year but am this confiden in the game. I actually played another 7.5 units on it yesterday and sold of 2.5 ogf them today to a friend. I was thinking line could get higher after Bobs picks so I did it last night when not around a puter with a local. I have loved the play for months and months dating back to last year. This is what I always have success in so lets hope it hits. Many respected guys feel same way so lets do it.

I see the line at 17.5 now. Any thought of spreading some of that money on the first half @ -10?

 

[B.A.R.]

I see the line at 17.5 now. Any thought of spreading some of that money on the first half @ -10?

I wouldn't say no to that

I love the game up to 21

 

[HUNT]

great UM write-up my friend..I agree on a lot of points, especially about them needing to attack...I hope they do.

 

[YesSir]

I think UM rolls here but love the over also

 

[YesSir]

gl luck today/night

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Good writeups BAR....

Hope you nail that PSU play...

There's been rumors all over the tOSU insider boards forever about LLLLLLoyd being in poor health and I believe...the fire isn't there..

Most recently a respected insider says he's been told he has early onset Parkinson's..

He wanted to resign after last year, but w/ that senior class, came back one more time..

New coach either way next year..


BOL today.

 

[signalcaller]

Good writeups BAR....

Hope you nail that PSU play...

There's been rumors all over the tOSU insider boards forever about LLLLLLoyd being in poor health and I believe...the fire isn't there..

Most recently a respected insider says he's been told he has early onset Parkinson's..

He wanted to resign after last year, but w/ that senior class, came back one more time..

New coach either way next year..


BOL today.

Barry Alvarez coach of Michigan next year. Thats my bold prediction

 

[barmeezee]

I didn't have time to look at the card this week so I tailed you on three
wvu, kentucky, and mich over.....don't let me down..hah

 

[JPicks]

GL Bar. Good looking card. Of course they always look good on Saturday morning don't they?

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Barry Alvarez coach of Michigan next year. Thats my bold prediction

Les Miles yo..

:cheers:

 

[JumpOnBoard]

if Barry was gonna be coach, Miami woulda been it..

Wisky's old AD is there and he has a home there...he's done.

 

[B.A.R.]

WVU is stinking it up big-time...the defense is providing them the ball but play-calling is atrocious...

Thanks for well-wishes guys..have a successful day

 

[B.A.R.]

Sorry for WVU play. You can't cap bad play-calling, not reviewing plays(the TD) and Marshall run defense doing a complete 180.

Shitty way to start day...but what can you do.

Lost all faith in Rich Rodriguez. Poor job in not reviewing that TD play where Morris was clearly over the line.

 

[aplous]

I'll take the backdoor.....

 

[B.A.R.]

me too aplous...I got one of the worst numbers..but I'll take the push either way

 

[B.A.R.]

West Virginia -25 -110 4 units(push)
Penn St -16 -110 5 units(win)
LSU -12.5 -110 3 units(win)
Hawaii -28 -110 1 unit(loss)
Florida -16.5(H) -110 1 unit(win)
Kentucky -12.5 -110 2 units(win)
Michigan O64.5 -110 1 unit(loss)
Texas Tech -14(H) -105 1 unit(loss)
Arizona St -14 -110 2 units
Penn St -17 -110 5 units(win)



You may notice the additional play on Penn St. I am playing 1-5 units this year but am this confiden in the game. I actually played another 7.5 units on it yesterday and sold of 2.5 ogf them today to a friend. I was thinking line could get higher after Bobs picks so I did it last night when not around a puter with a local. I have loved the play for months and months dating back to last year. This is what I always have success in so lets hope it hits. Many respected guys feel same way so lets do it.

Heres my thoughts on other leans. Came very close on a lot of these:

I do think last weeks game was a mirage for USF. Also a look ahead. I think it wil be close but just couldn't fire away on it. Couldn't get enough takes on CSU as week became very hectic. I still think thats the side though vs Cal. Situational angles not to mdention a horrid defense the Bears sport. I am not a big beliver in Southern Piss. I think Jeremy Young is dismal at best and Tenny plays well before Florida. I was close on this one. The one I was very close on is UCLA. This is one of my teams this year and I think it could be a double-digit win. I guess the 31-17 mid-4th qtr score last week sticks in my mind. UAB isn't going to score I think down at Doak-Campbell. Trust your instincts on FSU in this game. I like under as well. I still think Vandy is a live home dawg. The hook is sitting there if you like it. Miami(oh) is intriguing as well.


Word to the wise in BGSU-MSU. Minny tore up their defense running last week. MSU could simply just wear them down. This team has a chip on its shoulder and I hope they kinda stumble a bit to give me some value in a few weeks in South Bend.

5-5-1 and +10.55 units

I couldn't even watch when ND got ball back late..LOL

 

[Ray]

:cheers:

 

[B.A.R.]

2nd half Play


Wisconsin -13 -110 1 unit

 

[B.A.R.]

2nd half play

Wisconsin O24 -110 1 unit

 

[B.A.R.]

Well, those add-ons were horrid..shocker

With ASU game still pending

5-5-1 +10.55 units

18-16-1 +9.95 Overall

 

[Aztec4Life]

Hey...a winning week is a winning week. I'm with you on ASU bud.

:cheers:

 

[B.A.R.]

Hey...a winning week is a winning week. I'm with you on ASU bud.

:cheers:

dats what I look for...hit ASU and I will be extremely pleased

 

[Aztec4Life]

TD ASU!!!

'an_horse'

 

[Aztec4Life]

There ya go bud! ASU win and cover! :smiley_acbe:

 

[B.A.R.]

Well, those add-ons were horrid..shocker

With ASU game still pending

5-5-1 +10.55 units

18-16-1 +9.95 Overall

6-5-1 +12.55 units

19-16-1 +11.95 overall

pleased

 

[HUNT]

awesome awesome week my man!

 

[RetroVK]

JO PA !!!

Nice day BAR !

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Good shit bro.