Saturday MLB Discussion

BetCrimes1984 · May 24, 2008

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>901</TD><TD>Arizona D-Backs
R. Johnson

</TD><TD>-1.5 +150</TD><TD>-103</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +119</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>12:55 PM</TD><TD>902</TD><TD>Atlanta Braves
J. Campillo

</TD><TD>+1.5 -160</TD><TD>-105</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -129</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>903</TD><TD>New York Mets
C. Vargas

</TD><TD>+1.5 -157</TD><TD>+133</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -123</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>12:55 PM</TD><TD>904</TD><TD>Colorado Rockies
J. Francis

</TD><TD>-1.5 +147</TD><TD>-141</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 +113</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>905</TD><TD>Philadelphia Phillies
B. Myers

</TD><TD>-1.5 +141</TD><TD>-120</TD><TD>OVER 10 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>906</TD><TD>Houston Astros
B. Moehler

</TD><TD>+1.5 -151</TD><TD>+112</TD><TD>UNDER 10 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>907</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs
J. Marquis

</TD><TD>-1.5 +136</TD><TD>-132</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>908</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Pirates
P. Dumatrait

</TD><TD>+1.5 -146</TD><TD>+124</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>909</TD><TD>San Francisco Giants
M. Cain

</TD><TD>+1.5 -215</TD><TD>+100</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -106</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>910</TD><TD>Florida Marlins
B. Badenhop

</TD><TD>-1.5 +195</TD><TD>-108</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -104</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>911</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
S. Mcclung

</TD><TD>+1.5 -181</TD><TD>+111</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +113</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>912</TD><TD>Washington Nationals
J. Lannan

</TD><TD>-1.5 +171</TD><TD>-119</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -123</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>913</TD><TD>Cincinnati Reds
B. Arroyo

</TD><TD>-1.5 +155</TD><TD>-107</TD><TD>OVER 8 +100</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>914</TD><TD>San Diego Padres
W. Ledezma

</TD><TD>+1.5 -165</TD><TD>-101</TD><TD>UNDER 8 -110</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>915</TD><TD>St Louis Cardinals
K. Lohse

</TD><TD>+1.5 -147</TD><TD>+142</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -125</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:10 PM</TD><TD>916</TD><TD>Los Angeles Dodgers
B. Penny

</TD><TD>-1.5 +137</TD><TD>-150</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 +115</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/24

</TD><TD>917</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
C. SILVA

</TD><TD>+1.5 -139</TD><TD>+160</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>10:05 AM</TD><TD>918</TD><TD>New York Yankees
M. Mussina

</TD><TD>-1.5 +129</TD><TD>-168</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>919</TD><TD>Kansas City Royals
L. Hochevar

</TD><TD>+1.5 -165</TD><TD>+134</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +115</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>10:05 AM</TD><TD>920</TD><TD>Toronto Blue Jays
J. Litsch

</TD><TD>-1.5 +155</TD><TD>-142</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -125</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>921</TD><TD>LAA Angels
Jer. Weaver

</TD><TD>+1.5 -186</TD><TD>+109</TD><TD>OVER 9 +113</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>12:55 PM</TD><TD>922</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
J. Danks

</TD><TD>-1.5 +176</TD><TD>-117</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -123</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>923</TD><TD>Baltimore Orioles
S. Trachsel

</TD><TD>+1.5 -131</TD><TD>+158</TD><TD>OVER 9 -112</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>03:10 PM</TD><TD>924</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Rays
E. Jackson

</TD><TD>-1.5 +121</TD><TD>-166</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +102</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>925</TD><TD>Texas Rangers
S. Feldman

</TD><TD>+1.5 -131</TD><TD>+163</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +108</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>926</TD><TD>Cleveland Indians
C. Lee

</TD><TD>-1.5 +121</TD><TD>-171</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -118</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>927</TD><TD>Minnesota Twins
B. Bonser

</TD><TD>+1.5 -139</TD><TD>+148</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -120</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>928</TD><TD>Detroit Tigers
N. Robertson

</TD><TD>-1.5 +129</TD><TD>-156</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 +110</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/24</TD><TD>929</TD><TD>Boston Red Sox
J. Beckett

</TD><TD>-1.5 +116</TD><TD>-132</TD><TD>OVER 8 +101</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>06:05 PM</TD><TD>930</TD><TD>Oakland Athletics
J. Duchscherer

</TD><TD>+1.5 -126</TD><TD>+124</TD><TD>UNDER 8 -111</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>1:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Seattle at NY Yankees
Home Plate Umpire: Vanover, Larry

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>1:07 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Kansas City at Toronto
Home Plate Umpire: Dreckman, Bruce

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>3:55 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>LA Angels at Chi. White Sox
Home Plate Umpire: Marquez, Alfonso

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>6:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Home Plate Umpire: Hickox, Ed

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Texas at Cleveland
Home Plate Umpire: Scott, Dale

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Minnesota at Detroit
Home Plate Umpire: Hudson, Marvin

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>9:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Boston at Oakland
Home Plate Umpire: Joyce, Jim

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>3:55 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Arizona at Atlanta
Home Plate Umpire: Timmons, Tim

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>3:55 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Mets at Colorado
Home Plate Umpire: Fairchild, Chad

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Philadelphia at Houston
Home Plate Umpire: O'Nora, Brian

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Chi. Cubs at Pittsburgh
Home Plate Umpire: Bell, Wally

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Milwaukee at Washington
Home Plate Umpire: Emmel, Paul

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>San Francisco at Florida
Home Plate Umpire: Meriwether, Chuck

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cincinnati at San Diego
Home Plate Umpire: Campos, Angel

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>St. Louis at LA Dodgers
Home Plate Umpire: Layne, Jerry

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pitcher Report Card
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

SportsNut · May 24, 2008

Think I may get exotic tmrw and play Philly to score first and the YES prop for 1st inning score in that game . Also looking at Philly and the over especially 1st 5 inings over.

Well the props because PHILLY rallied and fell short in the 9th . Then we have Moehler who has had issues pitching against Philly from his days in Fla which sort of date back to 2006. I dont think I recall worse splits vs a team although Moehler has some interesting stats like SF 405 BAA in 20 something innings..Philly not quite that high but indivually oh my....

Burrell 7-15 3hrs
Howard 6-14 Hr
Jenkins 4-11 2Hrs
Rollins 6-21 2hrs (doubled in the 9th)
Utley 7-16 2Hrs
Victorino 5-8
35- 85 10Hrs
Feliz ?? 1-5
Ruiz 2-4 or Coste 0-3

Myers has been struggling but one of his better starts was at home where he has been alot better vs Houston before there lineup got going. He was decent last time @ Wash as well.......lesser of two evils but Over 10 here I come !

SportsNut · May 24, 2008

How do the mets feel ? get swept in 4 @ ATL including a DH and the start by Santana . Today the battle and scratch only to see Holliday tie it in the 9th after watching COL repeatedly strand runners they finally got a big hit from Holliday again. Pens TAXED! Church didnt start cause he was dizzy from the flight , Alou and Pagan on the DL , Marlon Anderson left early believe his hammy he is headed to the DL expect Fernando Tatis in LF tmrw and he hit like it was 1998 again ! Col lost Taveras and Barmes in the game so doubtful they play on Sat with a 3:55 start after playing extras till about 1:30 AM. Mets have to be exhausted lose yesterday fly ATL to COL , play extras and now early start ...Francis 9-0 in 11 day starts since 2007 makes it easier to play COL as well...plus Vargas seems to be significntly better past 3 years in day games. Under 9.5 smells nice....

SportsNut · May 24, 2008

Cant get the WSOX right lately so wonder if should even think about LAA? Weaver in 3 starts has allowed 1 run vs them and just 1 hit them for 7 @ LAA . Danks has been solid as well but LAA has won 7 of 9 vs LHP...LAA cant hit but neither can WSox...maybe under although same matchup as last week so never like to play the way as the previous recent outcome...

SportsNut · May 24, 2008

Thinkin Under in ATL as Unit shutting down DET as a LH is pretty impressive. Campillo is unfamiliar to Arizona and he did a damn nice job vs NYM. Also Bravos struggling to score of late vs LHSP.

Thinking Under @ TB because thats what these teams do ! Jackson throwing well and Orioles 1 run TOTAL past 3 games Rasner on long rest , Kennedy and Garza . Traschel allowed to stay in the ML cause as a RH he can actually successfully get LHB out but he cant get any RHB out....

Also I played Wash today and look to do so again with Lannan dealing and Milw still slow vs LHSP....Lannan has like 6 of 9 starts where he allowed 1 or no runs I believe( know its at least 6 strats with 3 runs or less)

RetroVK · May 24, 2008

i am not going to be able to resist the phillies tomorrow but i gotta tell ya .... road chalk been berry berry bad to me.

the bjays number looks off to me.

the yankees are favored by too much.

i am looking at the under in washington.

lots to like i think.

Satyr · May 24, 2008

Wow.

Guys, look at this.

Code:

Carlos Silva pitching vs. New York Yankees


OPPOSING HITTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Johnny Damon 	16 	5 	0 	0 	0 	1 	0 	0 	.313 	.313 	.313 	.625
Alex Rodriguez 	12 	5 	0 	0 	1 	2 	0 	1 	.417 	.417 	.667 	1.083
Derek Jeter 	11 	7 	1 	0 	0 	2 	0 	1 	.636 	.636 	.727 	1.364
Hideki Matsui 	11 	2 	2 	0 	0 	1 	0 	2 	.182 	.182 	.364 	.545
Jorge Posada 	10 	4 	2 	0 	0 	0 	1 	2 	.400 	.455 	.600 	1.055
Bobby Abreu 	10 	8 	0 	0 	0 	4 	1 	2 	.800 	.818 	.800 	1.618
Robinson Cano 	9 	3 	0 	0 	3 	4 	0 	2 	.333 	.333 	1.333 	1.667
Jason Giambi 	7 	2 	0 	0 	0 	2 	0 	1 	.286 	.250 	.286 	.536
Melky Cabrera 	7 	3 	0 	0 	1 	2 	0 	0 	.429 	.429 	.857 	1.286
Chad Moeller 	6 	2 	0 	0 	1 	1 	0 	1 	.333 	.333 	.833 	1.167
Jose Molina 	3 	3 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1.000 	1.000 	1.000 	2.000
Morgan Ensberg 	2 	1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1 	.500 	.500 	.500 	1.000
Totals	104	45	5	0	6	19	2	13	.433	[B][COLOR="Red"].439[/COLOR][/B]	.654	1.093

Mussina has had a horrid last outing vs Baltimore, 0.2 IP, 5 hits, 7 runs (1 earned), but has got the win in 3 out of his previous 4 home starts.

Home ERA in 2008. 4.78

Now, Yankee fans and Mussina connosseurs, how has he fared following such rough outings?

Mussina v current Seattle bats:
They are 44 of 141 off him (.312)

Yankees coming off a 13 run performance, only the 2nd double digit run performance of the season. The first one, a 15:9 win over Boston, was followed by a 7:5 loss to the same team.

However, Yankees in last 3 games.

Runs scored: 23
Runs allowed: 3
3 wins.

Some trends (from blankets):

# Mariners are 7-19 in their last 26 road games.
# Mariners are 7-19 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
# Mariners are 7-20 in their last 27 games on grass.
# Mariners are 7-20 in their last 27 overall.
# Mariners are 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
# Mariners are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
# Mariners are 2-7 in their last 9 games as an underdog.
# Mariners are 4-14 in their last 18 vs. a team with a losing record.
# Mariners are 3-12 in their last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter.
# Mariners are 1-5 in their last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
# Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
# Mariners are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
# Mariners are 1-8 in their last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
# Mariners are 1-9 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
# Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
# Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.

* Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
* Yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
* Yankees are 43-20 in their last 63 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
* Yankees are 60-28 in their last 88 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
* Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 Saturday games.
* Yankees are 4-11 in their last 15 games as a favorite.
* Yankees are 3-9 in their last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
* Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
* Yankees are 6-1 in Mussinas last 7 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
* Yankees are 5-1 in Mussinas last 6 starts.
* Yankees are 5-1 in Mussinas last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
* Yankees are 4-1 in Mussinas last 5 starts on grass.
* Yankees are 5-2 in Mussinas last 7 starts vs. American League West.
* Yankees are 5-2 in Mussinas last 7 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
* Yankees are 7-3 in Mussinas last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
* Yankees are 9-4 in Mussinas last 13 starts as a favorite.
* Yankees are 1-4 in Mussinas last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
* Yankees are 2-9 in Mussinas last 11 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

I was looking at the over, notably due to the fact that both pitchers get shelled against the opposition, however.

* Under is 23-8-1 in NYY last 32 games as a favorite.
* NYY are 4-11 in their last 15 games as a favorite.
* Under is 13-5-1 in NYY last 19 on grass.

Head to Head:

* NYY are 9-1 in Mussinas last 10 starts vs. SEA.
* Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.

These teams rarely combine for double digits. I am thinking this may be the spot, but do you really want to pound the over (or NYY RL for that matter) the day after the Yanks generated 13 runs?

Also, one more thing. Seattle offense is in a huge hole right now. They usually hit .304 off Pettitte, and they have had 9 hits last night, but managed only measly 2 runs.

Their numbers against Mussina are only insignificantly higher. Why do they do better here? maybe they do, just not sure what to think about their slumping bats. Coach McLaren got ejected last night for arguing with the umpire btw.

One thing is certain though, this Yankee team has done nothing last night so they can feel a letdown and go awol. They need to keep winning and climb back to .500.

Mussina is 9-1 against SEA in last 10, but they hit him too...

still pondering...

CapTwo · May 24, 2008

took the chisox @ overnight RJ
(-109).

danks way underpriced here and I had to jump on this when I saw it....
thoughts tomorrow.

Satyr · May 24, 2008

CNT, I agree, however I can't take the Sox here, I have a personal rule not to bet on teams that have JUST ended huge winning streaks.

I can only fade them, but the price surely isn't right here on Weaver to do that.

GL :shake:

SportsNut · May 24, 2008

Not a fan of the Yankee price and not sure I can say its high because as I mentioned prior to yesterdays game Seattle doesnt play well at the Stadium 4-10 with two 3-2 wins , they barely score something like 3 times past 3 seasons (remember 14 games )where they scored more then 3 runs .....4 when Ponson started , 15 when Igawa started , and a rare 7 spot vs a solid SP in Clemens last summer who we all would agree is the biggest waste of 20 million bucks ever! They faced Rasner a few times , DeSalvo , some no name types . Now factor that SEA is now 2-11 last 13 away winning a game @ Texas to avoid a sweep and putting up 5 in the ninith @ Cle in a 2-2 game .

Look at Sea's recent games they struggled to win the series vs SD despite being at home and travel this week to allow 12,9,9, and 13...

Even more impressive is Bedard has been so good @ Yankee Stadium and vs NYY past few years they caught him when he is best on 6 days rest and shelled him. Are the Yankee bats finally awakening ??? I look at last years lines and NYY was probably never cheaper then 160 vs Seattle.

Silvas 3 games @ Yankee Stadium he lost 8-0 , 8-1 and 8-2..Moose has actually excelled vs SEA in his past 10 starts which go way back to 2001 but he had 3 hiccups in 2004 and 2005 all consecutively then didnt face them to this season and allowed 1 run in 6 innings.....

I have to look at further and I am very untrusting off Moose but can Silva shutdown NYY ? He hasnt so far -

Carlos Silva (R) Previous Starts vs. NY Yankees

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/04/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ NYY</TD><TD class=datacell>2-8</TD><TD class=datacell>-/-</TD><TD class=datacell>L/-</TD><TD class=datacell>3.0</TD><TD class=datacell>11</TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>8 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>80 </TD><TD class=datacell>26.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/03/07</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) @ NYY</TD><TD class=datacell>0-8</TD><TD class=datacell>198/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.1</TD><TD class=datacell>9</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>5 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>84 </TD><TD class=datacell>15.8 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.50</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>09/01/06</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) @ NYY</TD><TD class=datacell>1-8</TD><TD class=datacell>163/10.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>4.0</TD><TD class=datacell>9</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>82 </TD><TD class=datacell>20.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.67</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/05/05</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) NYY</TD><TD class=datacell>9-3</TD><TD class=datacell>118/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>82 </TD><TD class=datacell>11.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.67</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>10/08/04</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) NYY</TD><TD class=datacell>4-8</TD><TD class=datacell>148/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>10</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>6 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>78 </TD><TD class=datacell>15.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.33</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>08/19/04</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) NYY</TD><TD class=datacell>10-13</TD><TD class=datacell>155/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>9</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>7 </TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>78 </TD><TD class=datacell>15.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>4.50</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

So hard to expect Silva to silence the NYY bats as hhe allows 1.50 WHIP and .305 BAA to LHP , has a 6.29 ERA on the road with 315 BAA , and in 3 day starts he has a 7.71 ERA and 374 BAA and those numbers are the same past few years...Which means SEA would then have to outhit NY which is tough since I describes they have scored more then 3 runs just 3 of the past 14 @ the Stadium.....seems like Yanks or pass..when Molina catches many more unders compared to Moeller or Posada.

- Game @ Chi tough neither team hitting that much all a matter of who gets the clutch hits and these SP squared off recently with LAA getting a 2-0 win . Weaver has 3 starts vs LAA and allowed 1 run but didnt go that deep in some while they are 7-2 vs LHSP so far but the only Angels hitting are LH Anderson and Kotchman...probably pass for me....:cheers:

SportsNut · May 24, 2008

Playing the Yanks and possibly -1.5 RL and the under . Spoke some about it TRU's thread.

Basically two teams who appear headed in opposite directions . Last season when NYY won by scoring 10 or more runs the next game they were 20-3 this year only 0-1 losing to Beckett . The opposing SP were Bedard , Lackey and Ramon Ortiz . Ortiz looks weak but remember he was very good in April last year (when it occurred)and it was Game 3 for Minny in the series trying to avoid the sweep. Home Ump Vanover in 40-15 past 2 + seasons for Home chalk . Now Seattle has lost 11 of 13 away pulling out late wins vs Texas and Cle pens in tied games. Like how the Yankee pen is pitching and Joba will be available maybe for 2 innings . They have lost 9 of 13 at Yankee Stadium (scoring 3 or less in 10) and since the start of 2007 in 13 meetings home or away they scored more then 3 runs just once vs NYY pitching defeating Clemens 7-1 behind Hernandez since the 1st game with Igawa (Gas can ) vs Baek.

Molina is catching which means the Under is 22-5 .

Mike Mussina (R) Last 10 Starts

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/20/08</TD><TD class=datacell>BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>2-12</TD><TD class=datacell>-146/9</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>0.2</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>41 </TD><TD class=datacell>61.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/14/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ TB</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1</TD><TD class=datacell>125/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>6.1</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>87 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.80</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/08/08</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>6-3</TD><TD class=datacell>-145/10</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>86 </TD><TD class=datacell>17.2 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.40</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/03/08</TD><TD class=datacell>SEA</TD><TD class=datacell>6-1</TD><TD class=datacell>101/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>84 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.25</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/28/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>5-2</TD><TD class=datacell>102/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>92 </TD><TD class=datacell>18.4 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.62</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/23/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ CHW</TD><TD class=datacell>6-4</TD><TD class=datacell>136/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>101 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.4 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.80</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/17/08</TD><TD class=datacell>BOS</TD><TD class=datacell>5-7</TD><TD class=datacell>123/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>3.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>5 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>77 </TD><TD class=datacell>25.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.33</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/12/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ BOS</TD><TD class=datacell>3-4</TD><TD class=datacell>153/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2</TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>71 </TD><TD class=datacell>12.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.50</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/07/08</TD><TD class=datacell>TB</TD><TD class=datacell>6-1</TD><TD class=datacell>-183/10</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>82 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.75</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/02/08</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR</TD><TD class=datacell>2-5</TD><TD class=datacell>-137/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2</TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>91 </TD><TD class=datacell>16.1 </TD><TD class=datacell>3.67</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Molina caught 8 of his starts except 4-17 and 4-23. Really the last game was just teh result of what happens when your going bad and have a finesse SP it snowballs.....

I hate laying heavy chalk but the way I see it NYY has value up until -300. What Seattle needs is Moose to be terrible and have a big lead early that sucks the life out of the Yanks but I have to think NY is really looking forward to comingto the park these days and quick turnaround beneifts us and remember Seattle did travel from home to Det to NYY and playing a day game after it....

:cheers:

Trueblue · May 24, 2008

rare occasion that i am laying -180 on yanks. No value at all for Ms on a slide... Moose is a vet, he will have fixed his mechanics..

SportsNut · May 24, 2008

Trueblue said:
rare occasion that i am laying -180 on yanks. No value at all for Ms on a slide... Moose is a vet, he will have fixed his mechanics..

yeah just hoping NYY keeps to form....:cheers:BOL bro

Satyr · May 24, 2008

let's cash this one SN :cheers:

RetroVK · May 24, 2008

in my last 9 innings pitched from the royals in which i have had a wager on them to win ...... they have given up 3 grand slams.

SportsNut · May 24, 2008

vegaskyle said:
in my last 9 innings pitched from the royals in which i have had a wager on them to win ...... they have given up 3 grand slams.

Yeah its funny when you feel like teams hate you well not funny but you know what I mean. Anything that could go wrong does and in obscene fashion...sucks when the pitcher is 1 out away as well...I included KC in a parlay 4 teamer as well sort of to offset the Yanks ML...at least we have 8 innings left but would have been nice had KC jumped out...Good Luck VK:cheers:

SportsNut · May 24, 2008

Satyr said:
let's cash this one SN :cheers:

Good Luck Satyr:cheers:

SportsNut · May 24, 2008

Played COL as well so far . I do hate fading good teams in the midst of long streaks but this looks like a tough spot. Francis is 9-0 in 11 day starts since 07 in the reg season. Mets had that tough 4 game trip in ATL which inclded a rain out then DH. They lost Church and Alou which Church had to be held out to dizzy spells from the flight which isnt a short one from ATL. So no rest and demoralized after the ATL series fly to COL face a great stastical day pitcher and they blow a win in the ninth and lose in extras sort of using there pen alot and getting in real late I would expect only to have a 3:55 start here.....Mets have already a poor history in COL as well with Vargas being better in day games and COL lineup hot -cold from hitter to hitter also w/o posibly Taveras and Barnes & NYM losing MarlonAnderson as well....seems like an under at least 1st 5 innings before the pens get involved...

Thinking Arizona because ATL has been awesome at home but Units most recent starts vs ATL have been awesome in 06 and 04...once of hisbest games as a Yankee and the no-no in 2004. Clearly alot of personnel change but I think Randy is comfortable on that mound and is off a great start vs DET who pounds LHSP. WOnder if ATL pen is taxed playing a DH , inserting Campillo in the rotation and having Reyes shelled yesterday.....1st instinct was under at 9.5 but looking at 1st 5 Over now that line has dropped...Braves recent ganes vs LHSP have been offensive struggles......:cheers:

SportsNut · May 24, 2008

I swear my computer hates me ! Lose my connection at 3:40 get it back at 3:57 hit submiyt on my plays .....OTB!

All I have is COL 1unit....

Tried adding to COL , 1st 5 ML COl and ML , Over 1st 5 ARI , ARI and LAA...fucking ridiculous .....

HereWeGo · May 24, 2008

Good thing it crashed SN....this COL game is starting to look like a carbon copy of ATL yesterday.

Satyr · May 24, 2008

SN your computer saved you I think

Francis not looking good so far.

Hoping the Yanks close this out, they do have a rather solid score at the moment but this game has been frantic, nothing would surprise me.

Let's finish this off for the RL win.

SportsNut · May 24, 2008

SportsNut said:
Think I may get exotic tmrw and play Philly to score first and the YES prop for 1st inning score in that game . Also looking at Philly and the over especially 1st 5 inings over.

Well the props because PHILLY rallied and fell short in the 9th . Then we have Moehler who has had issues pitching against Philly from his days in Fla which sort of date back to 2006. I dont think I recall worse splits vs a team although Moehler has some interesting stats like SF 405 BAA in 20 something innings..Philly not quite that high but indivually oh my....

Burrell 7-15 3hrs
Howard 6-14 Hr
Jenkins 4-11 2Hrs
Rollins 6-21 2hrs (doubled in the 9th)
Utley 7-16 2Hrs
Victorino 5-8
35- 85 10Hrs
Feliz ?? 1-5
Ruiz 2-4 or Coste 0-3

Myers has been struggling but one of his better starts was at home where he has been alot better vs Houston before there lineup got going. He was decent last time @ Wash as well.......lesser of two evils but Over 10 here I come !

Those are the best wins!

SportsNut · May 24, 2008

Satyr said:
SN your computer saved you I think

Francis not looking good so far.

Hoping the Yanks close this out, they do have a rather solid score at the moment but this game has been frantic, nothing would surprise me.

Let's finish this off for the RL win.

Yes first time in along while it saved me screwed me out of 10 winners before this against 3 or 4 losses...:tiphat:

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