Saturday lines and discussion

B

betman4ever

Pretty much a regular
01/03 7:05 PM
501 Milwaukee
502 Charlotte
CHA-G-Bell-Expected to return
184½
PK

01/03 7:05 PM
503 Houston
504 Atlanta
NO OVERNIGHT LINE:
HOU-F-McGrady-Questionable, F-Artest-Questionable, F-Battier-OUT


XX
XX
01/03 6:05 PM
505 Sacramento
506 Indiana
212
-7.0

01/03 7:35 PM
507 New Jersey
508 Miami
NO OVERNIGHT LINE:
NJ-G-Carter-Questionable (possible suspension)
G-Harris-Questionable
XX
XX
01/03 8:35 PM
509 Minnesota
510 Chicago
WGN
MIN-G-Miller-Probable
CHI-F-Gooden-Questionable, F-Deng-OUT
203
-7.0

01/03 8:35 PM
511 Philadelphia
512 San Antonio
NBA-TV
189
-9.5

01/03 9:05 PM
513 New Orleans
514 Denver
197
-3.0


All teams played yesterday so all teams playing today are on back2back with no game tomorrow.
Hope i haven't mistaken but:
Denver 5th game in 7 days and 6th in 9.
Houston,Nj, Minn and Chi 6th game in 9 days.
Mil 4th in 5.
 
First one i am looking at is Milwaukee@Charlotte over 181:

Frankiegotti already mentioned the over when the reverse game was played on Friday as a big play. I liked it and if not for the third quarter would have come easily through. More reasons:

-The total is pretty low and especially @181 which is 3 and a half points under lvsc opener. They still scored 178 yesterday in a game Larry Brown thought about his team that they played like total strangers. They comitted 23 turnovers. I expect the revenge game to be much closer and the 2 teams to push the score up.
-Both on b2b and Milwaukee is on their 4th game in 5 night which should help on a more loose defence
- Charlotte coming from 37% shooting which probably won't repeat
- Raja Bell might be back and imo this would help their offense

Opinions pls ?
 
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Betman, didn't look at the card yet, but what you wrote makes sense. I also while checking last night's games, the first thing I thought of is to check the Over in Charlotte, since their shooting night won't repeat itself. But, Bucks will not be shooting the same percentage either and we should take it in to consideration as well.
 
Leans:
-looking at the rockets with or without Tmac
-not a big fan of betting weak teams but looking at the sixers, not in the business of fading the spurs but dont like the spurs on b2b, lean philly
-definitely chasing that mil/cha over, although both plays grandma basketball
-over in mia/nj, doubt another 76point effort from heat

GL degenerates
 
Small play early on Sac plus 4.5 first half and second quarter plus 2 more on the half. Also small plus 7.5 for game.
 
1/02 Net -670

Saturday :
1st Q Pacers -2.5 (120)
Over 215 Kings (200)
1st H over 108.5 Kings (80)
Kings +8 (80) ML +300(20 value play)

- Kinda think Sac is Fool's Gold here but fading the spot with Indy home for awhile playing a tough game @ MSG (as did Sac @ Det) , now back home and a very tough 4 game road trip starting out West on Monday....Kings also have won 4 of 5 straight up @ Indy past few years. Pacers and the rest of the city more focused on the Colts perhaps?

Ind at home 1st Q is 30-26 basically (29.5 to 26.1) while Sac who playe dpoorly @ Det yesterday which I faded also , have been outscored 29.6 (30 basically) to 24.4 ...

Over because Indy has struggled vs forwards especially athletic ones see Harrington and Lee yesterday and think Sac has a few guys who could present a challenge especially if Hawes does play...the other is should be a ton of FTs which were largely missing @ NY yesterday but Sac with Martin back had a sick 33/34 day at the line. Both teams shot FT's well but Kings allow nearly 29 attempts per on the road while Indy allows 31 per at home.. Indy avgs 20 3 per home game and Kings have allowed 43% from the arc...both teams good on the glass ..

GL

 
Bobcats -115 (160)
Under 181 Bobcats (80)
Under 184 Houston(40)
ATL-4-120 (80)
Heat -6 -120 (200)
1st H -3.5 Heat (160)
1st Q NJ +2 (Lean)
Over 196 Bulls (120)
Wolves +7.5 -120 (320)
Wolves ML +250(80)
1st H Wolves +3.5 +100 (80)
Over 196 Hornets (120)
Nuggets -4 (160)

Kinda burnt buts that everything (so far) GL.....

fading Chi going in one direction playing 3rd in 4 looking terrible last 3 games with a crazy schedule of late and Minny playing alot better as well of late....NJ exhausted themselves IMO with that comeback . They might start quick but will fade...:cheers:



 
Bucks 0-3 w/o Bogut...hard not to like the Bobcats to bounce back from that horror performance yesterday.
Home-home split has been money lately too.
 
Good work Zecco . Was aware that Bogut was out but not that they were 0-3 so the Home and Home series is gravy like you said. Harris a tad suprised knew he was questionable but HUGE LOSS might go under now and UND TT . They may just PUNT this game after that WIN yesterday ...TMac suprisingly out as well ..

Thanks bro..going to add a play quick:36_11_6::cheers:
 
Small ones -

Under 187 Miami (40)
Under 89 NJN TT -115(120)
Over 97 Miami -115 (40)
Heat -8 (80)
2nd Q Heat -2 (40)
Bobcats -125 (120)
3rd Q Heat -2 (80)

GL:cheers:
 
I had 1 play I forgot about and its look good at the moment ...(12-7)

had Houston 1st Quarter +1.5 (80)

reasoning for the future....

ATL off a 20 pt choke on the road figure they start slow while Houston off an embarrassing loss...both had plane rides ...ATL probably down and Houston anxious to get back on the court...sprinkle in the fact that Houston is minus 2 stars then we expect more emphasis on a fast start...

forgot about that but want to share the angle more then anything ...okay back to NFL:shake:
 
The Kings game is painful I went from 320 on Sac to 80 and worse indy 1st Q 120 then cut the ML from 80 to 20.....just looked to easy to me...

Philly +10-120 (200)
1st Q Spurs -3 (160)
2nd Q Philly +2.5 -120 (40)
Over 187 (120)
1st H Over 92.5 (160)
4th Quarter Philly +2 (80)
Over 98 SAS TT -115 (40)
Over 88.5 Sixers -115 (40)
Philly +9.5 & Over 187 Parlay (40)

:cheers:
 
added @ 2nd H on Miami -8 -105 (120) , Over 93-120 (40)

Saturday :
1st Q Pacers -2.5 (120)
Over 215 Kings (200)
1st H over 108.5 Kings (80)
Kings +8 (80) ML +300(20 value play)

Bobcats -115 (160) -125 (120)
Under 181 Bobcats (80)

Under 184 Houston(40)
ATL-4-120 (80)
1st Quarter Houston +1.5 (80)

Heat -6 -120 (200) -8 (80)
1st H -3.5 Heat (160)
1st Q NJ +2 (Lean)
Under 187 Miami (40)
Under 89 NJN TT -115(120)
Over 97 Miami -115 (40)
2nd Q Heat -2 (40)
3rd Q Heat -2 (80)
2nd H Heat -8 -105 (120)

Over 196 Bulls (120)
Wolves +7.5 -120 (320)
Wolves ML +250(80)
1st H Wolves +3.5 +100 (80)

Over 196 Hornets (120)
Nuggets -4 (160)

Philly +10-120 (200)
1st Q Spurs -3 (160)
2nd Q Philly +2.5 -120 (40)
Over 187 (120)
1st H Over 92.5 (160)
4th Quarter Philly +2 (80)
Over 98 SAS TT -115 (40)
Over 88.5 Sixers -115 (40)
Philly +9.5 & Over 187 Parlay (40)

 
1st H under 99.5 (40)
1st H Denver -2.5 (120)
2nd Q Denver -1 (40)
Denver -4 (120)
Over 101.5 Den TT (80)

:cheers:all done ! Good Luck

Hw bout them Spurs (1st Q!!) ..to bad it kills my +10 plays but 3 quarters still:cheers:
 
Something of interest.... I was going to take a teaser earlier with Atl -.5 / Denver +1 at -110 juice. Instead I took a ML parlay (almost the same bet) and got +135!
 
Saturday :+1935
1st Q Pacers -2.5 (120)
Over 215 Kings (200)
1st H over 108.5 Kings (80)
Kings +8 (80) ML +300(20 value play)
+208


Bobcats -115 (160) -125 (120)
Under 181 Bobcats (80)
Under 184 Houston(40)
ATL-4-120 (80)
1st Quarter Houston +1.5 (80)
+132


Heat -6 -120 (200) -8 (80)
1st H -3.5 Heat (160)
1st Q NJ +2 (Lean)
Under 187 Miami (40)
Under 89 NJN TT -115(120)
Over 97 Miami -115 (40)
2nd Q Heat -2 (40)
3rd Q Heat -2 (80)
2nd H Heat -8 -105 (120)
-406

Over 196 Bulls (120)
Wolves +7.5 -120 (320)
Wolves ML +250(80)+200
1st H Wolves +3.5 +100 (80)
2nd H Over 105 @ Chicago (40)
+508

Over 196 Hornets (120)
Nuggets -4 (280)
1st H under 99.5 (40)
1st H Denver -2.5 (120)
2nd Q Denver -1 (40)
Over 101.5 Den TT (80)
+680 & -132 on hedge


Philly +10-120 (200)
1st Q Spurs -3 (160)
2nd Q Philly +2.5 -120 (40)
Over 187 (120)
1st H Over 92.5 (160)
4th Quarter Philly +2 (80)
Over 98 SAS TT -115 (40)
Over 88.5 Sixers -115 (40)
Philly +9.5 & Over 187 Parlay (40) +104
+944 PERFECT GAME


2nd H Under 99.5 @ Denver (HEDGE total with DEN doing well) (120)-132

:cheers:

 
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Wow looks like a very nice evening SportsN ! Congrats! Wish i was here earlier to follow on some. Do u think No totally gives up this game ?
 
Handykapt said:
Something of interest.... I was going to take a teaser earlier with Atl -.5 / Denver +1 at -110 juice. Instead I took a ML parlay (almost the same bet) and got +135!
Click to expand...

Good point . If the spread is 5 or less always look to ML parlay then 2 team tease..:shake:
 
betman4ever said:
Wow looks like a very nice evening SportsN ! Congrats! Wish i was here earlier to follow on some. Do u think No totally gives up this game ?
Click to expand...

Not sure they give up but cant say the starters playing in teh 4th down 15-20 for more then 2 minutes if no rally ...

I really dont have an opinion on the 2nd Half just throwing stuff out there ..dont want to sway you when I have no feel where this game is going :shake:
 
Seems Iguodala is on fire lately. Brand's injury is a blessing for AI and for this team. I wonder what they do when Brand returns.
 
betman4ever said:
Seems Iguodala is on fire lately. Brand's injury is a blessing for AI and for this team. I wonder what they do when Brand returns.
Click to expand...

Great effort . Down 19 after the 1st Quarter last game of a trip they won the next 3 quarters convincingly to be tied with 10 seconds left ...Probably play Sixers 1st game back home ...FT shooting killed them all trip -they shoot poorly and the opponents were perfect
:cheers:
 
betman4ever said:
May i ask why u where so convinced by Wolves? I see it was your highest bet tonite.
Click to expand...

All theories I have running around in my head I use to make situational plays ...apply alot of pyschology and logic to why I do things .

Basically terrible spot which tends to be a common theme for me.

L10 games :
16th @ Char play OT , come home on the 17th play OT again , 19th go to Boston and then 20th come home to face Utah . Pretty crazy 4 in 5 days ..

Get 2 days off

start a road trip @ Det on the 23rd another tough opponent , 24-25th Holidays , then work themselves from Miami up the east coast in 4 days ...@ Miami 26th , 27th Atl and NJ the 29th come back home , 31st NY Eve play host to ORL generally want to fade teams that 1st game home anyway , New Years Day , @ Cle another tough opponent , then have B2B host Minny ...

Mix in being shorthanded here and recently Gooden and Deng out 2 huge players for them.....

Face a team Minnesota who has the reputation of being terrible but has started to play much better of late and won a few games . Listened to a couple of Wolves players a week or so and they seemed to buy into McHale as coach saying it takes time to figure it out . Mike Miller's return .

Wolves started to show well late @ SA so took nnotice they went to mSG and whipped the Knicks . Tough spot vs ORL and they played well but feel part in the 2nd h which is typical of them so it was to me a plus , then small favs vs Memphi sstarted real slow but didnt quit and rallied with a nice win in OT , they go to Dallas and get up 22 at half but Dallas crushes them in the 2nd H still a plus iMO , shows me when teams take them lightily they are pouncing , yesterday host GSW and win but also win the 4th quarter where they have struggled sort of breaking through a wall ....

So a tired , shorthanded , flat Bulls squad facing a Minny team building momentum IMO game after game for 10 days now ...So essentially a deeper take on the old two teams going in opposite directions and the key is no one noticing it . As is the betting market ...Bulls still laying 7 and still people willing to lay that price ...sort of my take on value ....:shake:

Sprinkled in with all the other stuff you can gather past history and such ..



 
Everything is about momentum when you have it on your side good things happen and when you dont its usually when the bad things happen ..consistency doesnt exist
 
I appreciate it!:shake: Makes perfect sense. I have been looking lately more into schedule too, just that it's sometimes hard to keep track of each team with so many of them and so many games.
 
betman4ever said:
I appreciate it!:shake: Makes perfect sense. I have been looking lately more into schedule too, just that it's sometimes hard to keep track of each team with so many of them and so many games.
Click to expand...

I agree . Somedays I have no idea how this stuff dawns on me ...its not like I am sifting through these matchups like crazy ...:shake:
 
Some time ago some member of this forum posted a link for a nba full schedule with colored cells showing whenever a team begins a loaded stretch of games and when they have more rest. I'v been thinking of printing that and making a big poster on a wall to be able to better follow these things lol.
 
betman4ever said:
Some time ago some member of this forum posted a link for a nba full schedule with colored cells showing whenever a team begins a loaded stretch of games and when they have more rest. I'v been thinking of printing that and making a big poster on a wall to be able to better follow these things lol.
Click to expand...


I hear ya ...wish I started an excel program a long time ago would make life so easy..

GL tmrw..:cheers:
 
Thanks Renew...

Well my thoughts yesterday were that the way to play the CLE game was basically Cavs - the points or WIz ML ....

looking at the 1st H and taking into account the 4th Q chokes of Wash this season I still rather take Wash now after looking at the 1st H and seeing inconsistent play from CLE lately away...

2nd H Wiz +8 -115 (160)

Wiz beating them on the glass and badly without Z out sure they will improve but not sure how much , cavs ar shooting 50% and have 13 to 3 Fts edge and hit 6/13 from three and still losing ....seems like they just want to shot jumpers...

GL:cheers:


 
3:35 game @ LAC

LAC +6 (280)
LAC ML +220(40)
LAC 1st H +3 (120)
Under 1st H 86 (120)

2nd Q LAC +1.5 (120)
2nd Q Under 42.5 (100)
3rd Q LAC +1.5 (40)
3rd Q Over 43.5 (80)

TT Det under 90-115 (80)

Just like two shorthanded teams one laying -6 pts on the road out West . LAC has fought despite being shorthanded and Det has been winning but medicore overall efforts IMO at home ...2nd DET unit is mostly about defense hence the under plays...LAC always struggle vs Det on offense ...Camby playing like a beast Gordon never faced Det and has played well of late so maybe a quick start for him..Thornton as well...:cheers:
 
Wiz hold get me a split after ORL falls apart ...

also have 1st Q under 43 (40) in LAC game , left that out

GLall
 
3rd Q Dallas -1.5 (80)

1st Q Memphis +1.5 +100 (40)
2nd Q Dallas -1.5 (80)

Dallas -6 (240)
Under 189 (160)
TT Under 91.5 Memphis (160)
1st H Under 95.5 (80)

Good Luck memphis last 5 times has scored 85 or less vs Dallas , is off consecutive poor shooting outings , and has struggled vs the strong West teams in recent weeks (offensively as well) 80 , 89 and 84 vs SAS , PHO and NOH only cracking 90s vs LAL 96

GL:cheers:
 
YTD -670 , +1935 , today +800
Sunday Pending Plays :

3rd Q Dallas -1.5 (80)Loss -88
1st Q Memphis +1.5 +100 (40)
2nd Q Dallas -1.5 (80)
Dallas -6 (240) Loss -264
Under 189 (160)
TT Under 91.5 Memphis (160) -176
1st H Under 95.5 (80)
2nd Half Dallas -6 (80)Loss -88
2nd Half Under 93.5 (120)
-136

LAC +6 (280)
LAC ML +220(40)Loss -40
LAC 1st H +3 (120)
Under 1st H 86 (120) Loss -132
2nd Q LAC +1.5 (120)
2nd Q Under 42.5 (100) Loss -110
3rd Q LAC +1.5 (40)Loss -44
3rd Q Over 43.5 (80)Loss -44
TT Det under 90-115 (80)
+230

2nd Half Wiz +8 -115 (160)
2nd Half Magic -8 -105 (200)Loss -210
-50

NYK 1st Q +3 (80)
NYK 2nd Q +3 (40) Loss -44
NYK 1st Half +6 (240)
NYK Game +10.5 (240)
ML+450(40)
Over 207 (120)Loss -132
2nd H Knicks +5.5 (80)
+644


Think some bad blood has developed here and NY always plays them tough usually done in by 1 run where they go cold and Boston cant miss . Not sure how interested Boston is here. Granted they need a good road performance but are just 2-5 ATS last 7 away and think 5-6 ATS as road chalk (maybe 6-6 cant recall exactly). Have game @ Chrlotte on deck who fought them hard last meeting , then return home for matchup with Houston then another road trip ...since they own NY expecting more of Knick A game here and Boston road woese to continue..could see maybe -8 but not -10..... thats it for awhile ..BOL
 
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