Saturday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 24 Sat 2021

12:10 PM
915Seattle MarinersC. Flexen -R+166O 9
-120
916Boston Red SoxN. Eovaldi -R+1 Markets-180U 9
+100
12:10 PM
917Kansas City RoyalsB. Singer -R-120O 8
+105
918Detroit TigersM. Boyd -L+1 Markets+110U 8
-125
1:10 PM
929Pittsburgh PiratesT. Cahill -R+175O 8
-110
930Minnesota TwinsM. Pineda -R+1 Markets-190U 8
-110
1:15 PM
901Cincinnati RedsW. Miley -L+101O 8½
-110
902St. Louis CardinalsJ. Gant -R+1 Markets-111U 8½
-110
1:20 PM
903Milwaukee BrewersF. Peralta -R-115
904Chicago CubsA. Alzolay -R+1 Markets+105
3:05 PM
905Washington NationalsJ. Ross -R+180O 8½
+100
906New York MetsM. Stroman -R+1 Markets-196U 8½
-120
5:10 PM
921New York YankeesG. Cole -R-108O 6½
-115
922Cleveland IndiansS. Bieber -R+1 Markets-102U 6½
-105
6:20 PM
907Arizona DiamondbacksM. Bumgarner -L+157O 9
-105
908Atlanta BravesD. Smyly -L+1 Markets-171U 9
-115
7:10 PM
909Philadelphia PhilliesA. Nola -R-150O 10
-105
910Colorado RockiesA. Senzatela -R+1 Markets+139U 10
-115
8:05 PM
911Miami MarlinsP. Lopez -R+142O 7
-120
912San Francisco GiantsK. Gausman -R+1 Markets-154U 7
+100
8:10 PM
913San Diego PadresB. Snell -L+143O 7
-125
914Los Angeles DodgersT. Bauer -R+1 Markets-155U 7
+105
 
Inspekdah said:
Mariners priced like the frauds they are with a fraud pitcher on the mound. A 1.7 WHIP doesn’t align with that decent ERA.
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i liked them as a 2H type team and feel like they arrived way too early, but still like them as their youth gets a bit more seasoned. Kikuchi was a real disappointment last night, but if not for their gold glover at 1B making an error they might have won in extras
 
leans though bumgarner and ross aren't realistic

April 24miley
peraltaF
rossJ
bumgarner
lopezP
BAUER
BOYD
coleG
HONEYWELL
cahill
 
pleasantly surprised by Peralta moving to the rotation, that bullpen is plenty deep and they can cover if he only goes 4. Alzolay had some good numbers last year, but didn't start the season so hot then after it being a big deal that he made the team got optioned. MIL lineup should provide a soft landing, but will probably be motivated early after the 15-2 drubbing ayer. Saw Peralta dogged briefly this morning, not sure if that will return but would like it to and only really see lineups affecting this one on the CHC side since Yelich still isn't back yet. CHC on a good run, but yesterday was a throw-away and i don't trust that bullpen at all
 
GWarner27 said:
pleasantly surprised by Peralta moving to the rotation, that bullpen is plenty deep and they can cover if he only goes 4. Alzolay had some good numbers last year, but didn't start the season so hot then after it being a big deal that he made the team got optioned. MIL lineup should provide a soft landing, but will probably be motivated early after the 15-2 drubbing ayer. Saw Peralta dogged briefly this morning, not sure if that will return but would like it to and only really see lineups affecting this one on the CHC side since Yelich still isn't back yet. CHC on a good run, but yesterday was a throw-away and i don't trust that bullpen at all
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Have to remember that Brewers pen pretty much covered the whole game yesterday but will have Williams and Hader
 
GWarner27 said:
pleasantly surprised by Peralta moving to the rotation, that bullpen is plenty deep and they can cover if he only goes 4. Alzolay had some good numbers last year, but didn't start the season so hot then after it being a big deal that he made the team got optioned. MIL lineup should provide a soft landing, but will probably be motivated early after the 15-2 drubbing ayer. Saw Peralta dogged briefly this morning, not sure if that will return but would like it to and only really see lineups affecting this one on the CHC side since Yelich still isn't back yet. CHC on a good run, but yesterday was a throw-away and i don't trust that bullpen at all
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Without knowing what’s up with wind was leaning under
 
Pablo Lopez seems to always get tattooed in ATL, they make him look like a fastball change-up two-pitch pitcher a la Chris Paddack. It's never enough for him there in that bandbox, but AT&T is playing like old AT&T (unless the marine layer just isn't there in the summer now idk). Oracle whatever the name is

Fish bullpen is a concern for me, they still haven't figured out roles and should be further along in that. No idea why Curtiss hasn't been getting higher leverage spots, but looks like Yimi is closing with some combination of Bass/Curtiss/Floro

I can't explain why, but SF just wins games as they have the past two seasons and all those title years without a pretty team at all. Number is big enough for me to want to jump on banky's favorite team, but road wins at Oracle aren't easy to find and there's enough concern for me with the Fish lineup and bullpen even if good Pablo shows up
 
Bravos O, Fish FF U, Stros O, want to play TB tonight too, but the jays actually showed me something - never good when Grichuk/Rowdy are productive against you as a pitcher
 
Dislike Gant, but dislike Miley and that pen even more. Afraid of the weather but STL might get it today before the restart time
 
Inspekdah said:
Mariners priced like the frauds they are with a fraud pitcher on the mound. A 1.7 WHIP doesn’t align with that decent ERA.
Click to expand...

i slept way in today so not trying to say this after the fact: I agree seattle won’t keep this up “they frauds”, I disagree about flexen being a fraud, I been backing him in one way or another plenty early on, he another one these guys who went to the KBO and refined his game. The advanced metrics might not love him cause he not a strikeout machine but he doesn’t walk many and keeps the ball out of the wrong spots, in doing so avoiding hard contact. Much like Mikolas when he came back. Im always on lookout for pitchers the advanced metrics community doesn’t like cause there often value to be had on them. Just saying I wouldn’t be looking to fade him expecting huge regression cause he looks like a solid pitcher to me who should give his team a chance to win games when he starts.
 
I guess fish are gonna bury me this series cause I feel like price right to back them again! (Not really burying me since the Ff unders coming in). I don’t see any reason not to continue playing Ff u3.5.
 
Inspekdah said:
Good points
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he actually has a crazy high bapip against him thus far, especially considering he not allowing a lot of hard contact. So I think the 3.38 era a pretty fair representation of how he pitching. I could see him in the 3.50-3.75 era range over the course the season assuming he continues doing what he has.
 
I dunno how many wins that will equate to cause Seattle lineup has some pretty big holes, doubt they gonna remain in the top 8 of runs scored on the year.
 
Runs are kinda down this year ain’t they? There only 4 teams averaging 5+ runs a game with lad right below 5 per and 5th in mlb in runs scored. Without looking back that Feels kinda low doesn’t it?

last year in 60 games there were 7 teams above 5 runs per game but another handful of teams just under that.
 
I wouldn’t have bet tribe as favs but now yanks been bet to the fav which pretty understandable. Still Biebs getting +105 or better pretty tough to pass up! Can tribe score any off Cole tho?
 
GWarner27 said:
Pablo Lopez seems to always get tattooed in ATL, they make him look like a fastball change-up two-pitch pitcher a la Chris Paddack. It's never enough for him there in that bandbox, but AT&T is playing like old AT&T (unless the marine layer just isn't there in the summer now idk). Oracle whatever the name is

Fish bullpen is a concern for me, they still haven't figured out roles and should be further along in that. No idea why Curtiss hasn't been getting higher leverage spots, but looks like Yimi is closing with some combination of Bass/Curtiss/Floro

I can't explain why, but SF just wins games as they have the past two seasons and all those title years without a pretty team at all. Number is big enough for me to want to jump on banky's favorite team, but road wins at Oracle aren't easy to find and there's enough concern for me with the Fish lineup and bullpen even if good Pablo shows up
Click to expand...

I don’t think I can get off them, the Ff under keeping me from losing money this series but not making any either! I just can’t see them not being able to get one this games when I think the teams pretty even.
 
The idea a backing Ray makes me ill but man that a nice price against Rays throwing a pen game with a pen not pitching nearly as well as previous years.
 
The over is so tempting in the Jays/Rays game but we all know I dislike overs in general these days, have never liked playing them in the trop, told myself I’d need a ump with a small strike zone/over lean guy to consider. So of course I get a ump that been all over the place from one year to the next! Last year he was huge over ump so naturally has started off with a under lean this year. Guess I can’t play it.
 
what happened to Odorizzi? 1 out and a rook coming in ?I don't mind for the over, just haven't had time to flip that game on in time for the start
 
GWarner27 said:
still better than the Jays
Click to expand...

rays pen? Jays pen been far and away better thus far, not just better than Rays but one the better pens in the league. I know they have injury issues but still been performing well. Rays numbers look ugly across the board up to this point.
 
2daBank said:
The over is so tempting in the Jays/Rays game but we all know I dislike overs in general these days, have never liked playing them in the trop, told myself I’d need a ump with a small strike zone/over lean guy to consider. So of course I get a ump that been all over the place from one year to the next! Last year he was huge over ump so naturally has started off with a under lean this year. Guess I can’t play it.
Click to expand...
depends how they attack Ray; 3 straight lefties in this series with Matz, Ray, Ryu. Cash even said it's not the hits that's the problems it's cashing in. I suspect Lowe is back in the line up today
 
Play2win said:
Biebs at that price is auto play
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think I’m with you. Of course had I woke up sooner and seen Cole around that I would have most likely said same thing! This game tough, I don’t like Ff unders at 3, both pitchers can be good and still push, I tend to think it has to go under for tribe to have a chance tho, how likely is it they score much off Cole?
 
gsro said:
depends how they attack Ray; 3 straight lefties in this series with Matz, Ray, Ryu. Cash even said it's not the hits that's the problems it's cashing in. I suspect Lowe is back in the line up today
Click to expand...

unless a lineup just terrible against lefties I think managers should be more aware of and avoid that if possible. Gotta think it advantage hitters at some point. I feel like it pretty much a foregone concision Ray will walk a bunch against a Rays team who draws a lot of them anyways. I gotta believe Rays will have some offensive spurts vs lhp as they had a .794 ops against them last year and they always play the platoon game with righties who hit them well. Only a matter of time, they get hits here while should be baserunners could get ugly. This gets me off Jays lean, can I actually play a over at the trop when I hate overs in general?!??
 
2daBank said:
think I’m with you. Of course had I woke up sooner and seen Cole around that I would have most likely said same thing! This game tough, I don’t like Ff unders at 3, both pitchers can be good and still push, I tend to think it has to go under for tribe to have a chance tho, how likely is it they score much off Cole?
Click to expand...
Agree but not like yanks hitting cover off ball lately
 
I'm leaning bumgarner today. I looked at everything and I can't see much that separates his first three awful starts (GS-17,36,26) and his last average start (GS-57)...except his fastball jumped 1-2 mph and his slider velocity jumped 2mph in his last start. I'd like it a lot more if Acuna was still out.
 
KJ said:
Bum was pretty stellar last out although it was against Nats struggling bats
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yea, I wasn’t sure what it meant when you see what good capable lineups have done to him. Guess the question is are Braves that right now? They were middle the pack vs lhp last year and they not hitting anywhere close to that as of yet (other than Acuna of course).
 
2daBank said:
unless a lineup just terrible against lefties I think managers should be more aware of and avoid that if possible. Gotta think it advantage hitters at some point. I feel like it pretty much a foregone concision Ray will walk a bunch against a Rays team who draws a lot of them anyways. I gotta believe Rays will have some offensive spurts vs lhp as they had a .794 ops against them last year and they always play the platoon game with righties who hit them well. Only a matter of time, they get hits here while should be baserunners could get ugly. This gets me off Jays lean, can I actually play a over at the trop when I hate overs in general?!??
Click to expand...
they're hitting .229 and .710 OPS against lefties this year; truth is when Pearson is back you won't be getting these 3 straight lefties. It's just a product of their injuries to their pitching staff. And if Strip was healthy he would have been one of these starts as the 4/5
 
Smokeshow99 said:
I'm leaning bumgarner today. I looked at everything and I can't see much that separates his first three awful starts (GS-17,36,26) and his last average start (GS-57)...except his fastball jumped 1-2 mph and his slider velocity jumped 2mph in his last start. I'd like it a lot more if Acuna was still out.
Click to expand...

i thought it was level of hitters that changed.
 
I lean the Rays, they normally bounce back well; but can't ignore what matz was doing to them until that last inning when he was leaving his arm out on his release. Mr. Walks might be in for it.
 
gsro said:
they're hitting .229 and .710 OPS against lefties this year; truth is when Pearson is back you won't be getting these 3 straight lefties. It's just a product of their injuries to their pitching staff. And if Strip was healthy he would have been one of these starts as the 4/5
Click to expand...

i understand they haven’t crushed lefties yet but they typically a team who does have success vs them. This could be just what they need? I mean my lack of trust in Ray well known anyways. Im fairly confident Rays gonna plate some runs here. What should we expect from Jays facing who knows how many pitchers in this open game for rays?
 
2daBank said:
i understand they haven’t crushed lefties yet but they typically a team who does have success vs them. This could be just what they need? I mean my lack of trust in Ray well known anyways. Im fairly confident Rays gonna plate some runs here. What should we expect from Jays facing who knows how many pitchers in this open game for rays?
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yea no real interest for me really. I just want the Cards to win at this point and i'll be a happy camper
 
gsro said:
yea no real interest for me really. I just want the Cards to win at this point and i'll be a happy camper
Click to expand...

have they started playing yet? I knew it would be few hours before they could get it in. Appears rain has stopped tho.

over where I’m looking in tampa but dunno I can pull trigger?
 
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