Saturday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 3 Sat 2021

12:05 PM
963Toronto Blue JaysR. Stripling -R+152O 9
-125
964New York YankeesC. Kluber -R-165U 9
+105
12:10 PM
965Cleveland IndiansZ. Plesac -R-165O 8½
-105
966Detroit TigersJ. Teheran -R+152U 8½
-115
12:10 PM
967Baltimore OriolesM. Harvey -R+166O 10½
-105
968Boston Red SoxT. Houck -R+1 Markets-181U 10½
-115
1:10 PM
969Texas RangersK. Arihara -R+148O 9½
-110
970Kansas City RoyalsM. Minor -L-160U 9½
-110
1:20 PM
951Pittsburgh PiratesT. Anderson -L+152
952Chicago CubsJ. Arrieta -R-165
3:05 PM
953Atlanta BravesC. Morton -R-107O 8
-125
954Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Wheeler -R-103U 8
+105
3:07 PM
971Houston AstrosL. McCullers Jr. -R-123O 9
-105
972Oakland AthleticsC. Irvin -L+1 Markets+113U 9
-115
3:10 PM
957St. Louis CardinalsA. Wainwright -R-104O 9
-115
958Cincinnati RedsT. Mahle -R-106U 9
-105
5:10 PM
975Tampa Bay RaysR. Hill -L-122O 8
-105
976Miami MarlinsE. Hernandez -R+1 Markets+112U 8
-115
6:10 PM
977Minnesota TwinsJ. Berrios -R+120O 7½
-115
978Milwaukee BrewersC. Burnes -R-130U 7½
-105
7:10 PM
959Los Angeles DodgersW. Buehler -R-221O 11½
-115
960Colorado RockiesJ. Gray -R+1 Markets+201U 11½
-105
7:40 PM
961Arizona DiamondbacksC. Smith -L+179O 8½
-120
962San Diego PadresJ. Musgrove -R+1 Markets-195U 8½
+100
8:07 PM
973Chicago White SoxL. Lynn -R-122O 8½
-120
974Los Angeles AngelsA. Cobb -R+1 Markets+112U 8½
+100
8:10 PM
979San Francisco GiantsL. Webb -R-115O 8½
-120
980Seattle MarinersC. Flexen -R+1 Markets+105U 8½
+100
 
2daBank said:
I havnt seen Kluber this spring but his numbers not very good, often times that don’t matter, I like to see a good outing their last start of spring but some guys don’t care and often just working on things. I’ve never liked stripling so def lean that way.
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Stripling is a gas can and only starting due to injuries. Don’t think he gets past 4-5 max and kluber I’m sure will be on a limited pc being his first start and all and both lineups can mash
 
Big daddy naught said:
Stripling is a gas can and only starting due to injuries. Don’t think he gets past 4-5 max and kluber I’m sure will be on a limited pc being his first start and all and both lineups can mash
Click to expand...

ive always hated stripling, totally agree with “gas can”, fucker has pitched over his head and gotten me more than once tho! Lol.

jays pen was really good in game 1. Maybe 1st 5 innings? Can’t imagine the yanks top 4 gonna struggle like they did all that often.
 
Ugh. I just read Sixto has shoulder inflammation, I was wondering why we haven’t got to see him? That sucks. Fish Ff unders gonna be money when him and alcontera pitch. Maybe with their other starters too! Their lineup isn’t very good!
 
Said this in the “in-game” thread but will put it here. Wouldnt expect either Sox or halo’s closer be available 2marro. Iglesias only threw 7 pitches in game 2 but got rocked and he pitched in both games now (bad move by madden bringing him in a game they were down, closers don’t like that role! I understand wanting to keep it 1 run but ya gotta have other guys for that!). Hendriks had to come in to finish the 8th and despite Sox tacking a bunch on Tony let him go back out for the 9th and he ended up throwing 34 pitches so wouldn’t expect to see him in b2b. I suppose either could be called on but doesn’t seem likely and if they are both could be vulnerable!

lynn has been great vs heart of laa order, hasn’t seen ohtani but very solid vs trout, and has owned Rendon and Upton. He hasn’t been great in March/April the last few seasons but he is 4-1 w a sub 3 era vs halo’s last 2 years, 2 outings at laa he went 7 innings in both allowing 2 and 3 runs. Even with the success he has had vs the heart I still think there a good chance he uses a lot of pitches to navigate this lineup, we know he a horse but will they be willing to let him throw the 110-120 pitches it prob take him to get thru 7 in his 1st start the year? Doesn’t seem likely. With Keuchel not giving them much in his start and the game being closer than it should have thanks to several untimely errors the best in Sox pen had to put in some high leverage work so they could have to rely on lessor guys in this one.

I’m a Cobb fan (maybe more than I should be) but he been notoriously bad in March/April posting by far his worst era, ops allowed, and w/l record in the early months. Only a handful Sox hitters have seen him at all and very few bats between them but they have rocked him. His last spring action was March 15th so he been on the pine for 2 weeks, he been at his worst on 6+ days of rest most his career!

to me this looks fairly cut and dry, small number so laying the half run on Sox Ff should probably bring back small plus money, imo that the way to go here as I trust lynn to navigate his way thru the lineup a few times even if he only goes 5 instead his typical 7 innings. I think this turns into a pen game with some unknowns for both so why not just take the better pitcher to be ahead when he comes out? I think a case for over 8.5 can be made as well but I’ll happily take plus anything with Sox-.5 Ff.
 
Waino has looked pretty good this spring but he has not fared well in cincy or vs their batters. He hasn’t pitched with randizzo calling balls and strikes in a long time but he has gotten rocked every time it has happened and he dependent on getting corners more than ever with stuff not as electric as once was. I worry for waino in this start. On the plus side cards tend to give him support. Nice day in cincy with wind blowing out. I dunno how ya don’t play over 9 in this one?
 
2daBank said:
ive always hated stripling, totally agree with “gas can”, fucker has pitched over his head and gotten me more than once tho! Lol.

jays pen was really good in game 1. Maybe 1st 5 innings? Can’t imagine the yanks top 4 gonna struggle like they did all that often.
Click to expand...
Jays pen is pretty damn good. F5 might be good I’d think both get runs early
 
2daBank said:
Said this in the “in-game” thread but will put it here. Wouldnt expect either Sox or halo’s closer be available 2marro. Iglesias only threw 7 pitches in game 2 but got rocked and he pitched in both games now (bad move by madden bringing him in a game they were down, closers don’t like that role! I understand wanting to keep it 1 run but ya gotta have other guys for that!). Hendriks had to come in to finish the 8th and despite Sox tacking a bunch on Tony let him go back out for the 9th and he ended up throwing 34 pitches so wouldn’t expect to see him in b2b. I suppose either could be called on but doesn’t seem likely and if they are both could be vulnerable!

lynn has been great vs heart of laa order, hasn’t seen ohtani but very solid vs trout, and has owned Rendon and Upton. He hasn’t been great in March/April the last few seasons but he is 4-1 w a sub 3 era vs halo’s last 2 years, 2 outings at laa he went 7 innings in both allowing 2 and 3 runs. Even with the success he has had vs the heart I still think there a good chance he uses a lot of pitches to navigate this lineup, we know he a horse but will they be willing to let him throw the 110-120 pitches it prob take him to get thru 7 in his 1st start the year? Doesn’t seem likely. With Keuchel not giving them much in his start and the game being closer than it should have thanks to several untimely errors the best in Sox pen had to put in some high leverage work so they could have to rely on lessor guys in this one.

I’m a Cobb fan (maybe more than I should be) but he been notoriously bad in March/April posting by far his worst era, ops allowed, and w/l record in the early months. Only a handful Sox hitters have seen him at all and very few bats between them but they have rocked him. His last spring action was March 15th so he been on the pine for 2 weeks, he been at his worst on 6+ days of rest most his career!

to me this looks fairly cut and dry, small number so laying the half run on Sox Ff should probably bring back small plus money, imo that the way to go here as I trust lynn to navigate his way thru the lineup a few times even if he only goes 5 instead his typical 7 innings. I think this turns into a pen game with some unknowns for both so why not just take the better pitcher to be ahead when he comes out? I think a case for over 8.5 can be made as well but I’ll happily take plus anything with Sox-.5 Ff.
Click to expand...
Hendricks is def done for tomorrow and I don’t see how an over here doesn’t hit either. Neither can hold a lead
 
Who the heck that kid pitching for Red Sox? I aint ever heard of him! Of course I have heard of Harvey but that don’t mean anything good!! Didn’t know he pitched for O’s now. Is it gonna be warmer in Fenway like it is over much the country today? Sure would like to play the over but little spooked after game 1. Tough not to like the price on O’s again also!
 
Really good pitching matchup in Philly but I don’t love playing unders in that park, obviously would only be Ff cause damn sure wouldn’t want full game!
 
Nice strong wind blowing in at Detroit. Enough to have me tempted with Ff under. Don’t love the pitching matchup, it be more of a fade the offenses.
 
Anyone have a good site for umpire stats? I’ve always used covers for this but every name I click on a individual ump it showing some stupid error.
 
2daBank said:
Anyone have a good site for umpire stats? I’ve always used covers for this but every name I click on a individual ump it showing some stupid error.
Click to expand...
Don't they only use ytd stats? Might be why you get errors.
 
2daBank said:
Who the heck that kid pitching for Red Sox? I aint ever heard of him! Of course I have heard of Harvey but that don’t mean anything good!! Didn’t know he pitched for O’s now. Is it gonna be warmer in Fenway like it is over much the country today? Sure would like to play the over but little spooked after game 1. Tough not to like the price on O’s again also!
Click to expand...
No idea who he is, but I can never back Harvey he is just that bad. Maybe he had a good spring I have no idea but even if he pitches well you gotta trust the pen lol
 
Big daddy naught said:
No idea who he is, but I can never back Harvey he is just that bad. Maybe he had a good spring I have no idea but even if he pitches well you gotta trust the pen lol
Click to expand...

yea I feel ya. To me it looks like potential to be back and forth with runs a plenty which why I think some value with +150ish, certainly not backing them cause of Harvey!
 
KJ said:
Don't they only use ytd stats? Might be why you get errors.
Click to expand...

na, covers shows year by year individually so I wouldn’t think that be the problem but since it starts on current season you could be right.
 
Did a little more digging on yanks over. I guess kluber has had a good spring. Sub 1.9 era but his velocity is down about 2mph. Jays haven’t had many ab vs him other than Simien. Stripling was average, about a 3.77 era in spring but did have 11k in 14 innings. I still don’t think he’s going more than 4-5 as he filling in bc of injuries to Ray and Pearson
 
Big daddy naught said:
Did a little more digging on yanks over. I guess kluber has had a good spring. Sub 1.9 era but his velocity is down about 2mph. Jays haven’t had many ab vs him other than Simien. Stripling was average, about a 3.77 era in spring but did have 11k in 14 innings. I still don’t think he’s going more than 4-5 as he filling in bc of injuries to Ray and Pearson
Click to expand...

I really don’t take much from spring starts (other than velo), lot of guys (especially established ones) spend spring working on certain things that can lead to what appears to be bad outings. Or they have good outings cause they faced a minor league lineup that day! Velo being down is concerning, but you do gotta wonder if it him working toward his norm or it just down?
 
2daBank said:
I really don’t take much from spring starts (other than velo), lot of guys (especially established ones) spend spring working on certain things that can lead to what appears to be bad outings. Or they have good outings cause they faced a minor league lineup that day! Velo being down is concerning, but you do gotta wonder if it him working toward his norm or it just down?
Click to expand...
Think with the short season last year you'll see a lot of velocity down at the beginning of the season while they build strength back up
 
2daBank said:
I really don’t take much from spring starts (other than velo), lot of guys (especially established ones) spend spring working on certain things that can lead to what appears to be bad outings. Or they have good outings cause they faced a minor league lineup that day! Velo being down is concerning, but you do gotta wonder if it him working toward his norm or it just down?
Click to expand...
True. I’m sure he’s on a pc around 80 max tho so might see a lot of the pens here
 
KJ said:
Think with the short season last year you'll see a lot of velocity down at the beginning of the season while they build strength back up
Click to expand...

could be. I didn’t think Biebs was hitting his normal velo, seemed to be living around 92.
 
Man I would be on anyone besides Harvey vs these Red Sox. Bogarts and Devers only MLB bats in that lineup right now. No idea what happened to that organization.
 
Some ump stats for today since I saw @2daBank asking:

Hoye (Tor/NYY) 233-218 -24,39 units to the home team
Barksdale is in Detroit and is a huge under guy 247-203 to the under for +32.89 units (plus strong wind in)
Kulpa is in Boston and is even more of an under guy - 255-190 to the under +41.95 units
Belino is another under guy in Oakland (don't know anything about A's P but Love me some road McCullers) 145-119 to the under
Estabrook another under guy in Miami - 179-142 to the under
Rackley is a big over guy in Sox/Halos
 
By the way, I very rarely can find myself on full game unders anymore. Almost always take the F5 - too often does it seem that the pens blow it open late - couple in the extra innings rule. If it goes over F5 and under full game - so be it.
 
Ryno14 said:
By the way, I very rarely can find myself on full game unders anymore. Almost always take the F5 - too often does it seem that the pens blow it open late - couple in the extra innings rule. If it goes over F5 and under full game - so be it.
Click to expand...

I been playing exclusively Ff unders for 2+ years now, I can hardly remember one where Ff went over but game stayed under, I’m sure it has happened to me at least once but the fact I can’t remember any bodes pretty well. I started before the rule changes with relievers having to face 3 guys or the extra inning bs but now more than ever it just doesn’t make sense to play a fg under.
 
Yea I have no desire to mess with that total, some things scream over but others scream under. Lol
 
Kinda tempting to let the line keep dictating plays for me in Seattle, m’s dogs again so lean simply playing them. Only problem is Webb has been outstanding this spring, as I’ve said I don’t put a ton of stock into spring but some performances worth taking notice. Apparently he has a really good change up working that developing into a swing and miss pitch. Flexon hasn’t been bad either and some these guys been having success after playing in KBO for a year, where he pitched really well. Could be another game decided by the pens as the 1st 2 have been, maybe giants pen turn to mess things up today? Lol. Could be a Ff under play also.
 
Giants righties off to fast starts but they have seen b2b lefties, could be a righty nobody very familiar with could slow them down.
 
Tribe/Tigers F5 U4.5 -112
Harvey/Houck F5 U5.5 +100
BJs/Yanks F5 O4.5 -134

May play Cubbies over, Bravos ML, and Stros F5 Under as well

BOL everyone
 
Ryno14 said:
Tribe/Tigers F5 U4.5 -112
Harvey/Houck F5 U5.5 +100
BJs/Yanks F5 O4.5 -134

May play Cubbies over, Bravos ML, and Stros F5 Under as well

BOL everyone
Click to expand...

I’m assuming you typically play full game when it comes to overs but doing Ff over in ny since the pens stronger than the starters? That under in Boston scary, probably means it the right side! Lol. Gl bro
 
Ultimately I think one would have to be crazy to play the fav any the games in the San Fran/Seattle series!! Just can’t decide if I’m gonna pull trigger on the small dog for 3rd straight game?!??! Ff under might be stronger than a side in this one. Then again I do think this be 3rd game in a row decided by the pens of which both are shaky imo! I expect both starters to go 5-6 innings and give their teams a chance. I don’t think we have more than 4 total runs when the starters leave.
 
3 runs on 2 hits in Indians game too. During the off-season I always forget how frustrating betting baseball can be sometimes
 
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