Saturday discussion and plays

[Cole]

Long time since i posted, and its best time to get back.

Anyway im bored at 4:30 am at my place, watching San Jose, , so might write some thoughts for tomorrow games.

at 1st i like those games:

Montreal to win in regulation
Anaheim to win in regulation

Minnesota should finaly win against LA, although LA trashed Nashville badly yesterday. Still need to think about this play tomorrow.

Detroit is hot, so looking also on that play, since Nashville plays terrible atm.

other games are just to though to predict.

any ideas, just share them,

 

[catfood]

I don't think Detroit is a good bet personally. I probably will be on Nashville.

 

[Satyr]

Cat any thoughts on the Habs PL? Not sure of the spot for them, you'll know better.

 

[catfood]

Well the odds arent great, and those games scare me but the habs have games coming up against Ottawa and Boston and Toronto, I dont think they want to put themselves in the position where those games are must-win games. Carbonneau's gonna change 3 lines, and though I hate that this game is almost used as a lab experiment, I think it should be a good change. Look for Higgins to have a good game. He always plays well against the Islanders (his hometown team)and he wont be with Koivu, the change should do both of them good I think. Also Halak will be in, again I dont think he'll allow many, hes out to prove something...All in all, I think the puckline is good.

 

[catfood]

Oh and Halak is 7-0-0 all time in Montreal.

 

[Satyr]

Yep, pulling the trigger on it. Basically I have little to add to what you said as I take your word as the final one on the Habs. Apart from that I think the Isles are done, too bruised, too crippled, in a bad period...not much to play for.

Montreal -1,5 (2.29 @ Pinnacle) 7 units

 

[tuck321]

Would think a combination of runline and minus .5 would be fine with Montreal if DiPietro plays. Last 7 averaging over 4 goals a gain. Last 6 losses by 2 or more. The last 7 times Montreal has won vs this team have been by 2 or more goals. Halak seems to be playing well and Montreal has not been going to ot and is coming off a loss.
Blues are 3-9 in b-b. Anaheim has won 8 straight at home and 15 of last 20 at home to match with Blues at 4 in 20 or 2 in 17. Not sure what is going on as Legace did not play last night and goaliepost is calling for Hannu again tonight.
Zero interest in Minn . LA has a last 10 edge in special teams and the same 3 wins. Last 10 games LA has scored 28 goals and given up 30. Minn has scored 21 and given up 32. There may be a negative trend with Ernsberg going good game bad game but too early to really tell could personally only play LA.
Ramo probable for Tampa. Has won 4 of last 10 and 3 of last 4 games at home. Rangers 5-6 in b-b. Rangers 4-6 last 10 at Tampa. Tampa 3-7 last 10 and 4-6 last 10 at home. Rangers 8-2 last 10 off a loss. This game needs more study.
Vancouver is 4-6 last 10 away and has scored 18 goals in those 10 games. This is the point in the year where playoff teams tend to surge and Dallas is 6-4 last 10 and Vancouver is 4-6. Both teams have given up 1 more goal on special teams than they have scored. Dallas is 7-3 last 10 at home but looking at it it seems to be a Bad 7-3 with 3 losers in the last 6 home games. No real interest in this game.
Boston 1-6 last 7 seems unplayable. Both goalie have been good in the day. Biron has done much better on Saturday. Flyers not playing well but their 5 losses last 10 were to teams that have been playing well. Not seeing a price right now but lean to Flyers. Will post this before I lose it.

 

[catfood]

I wonder when the rest of the lines will come out.

 

[Satyr]

Another square play.

Ducks -1,5 (2.05) 6 units

Obviously the value just is barely here, but this warrants a play. The Blues are still in a horrid, horrid spot, b2b, coming off a rather quick and painful defeat at the hands of San Jose. The Ducks beat Vancouver to get back to winning ways but what I like here is - they can smell blood. The Stars are just one point ahead, SJ is 4 points in front. This is all reachable. They're practically tied with Dallas and SJ surely won't end the season on a perfect winning streak, they will end it and lose another one eventually, which puts the Ducks in a solid spot, even though I'm not so sure they would kill themselves to clinch the divisional title, I think this team looks ahead to the playoffs slowly. If St Louis steps up here it will just be the fact they actually decided to do it PLUS Anaheim had a horrid night. In all other cases, I can see this similarly as last night's game in SJ.

 

[catfood]

I agree about the Flyers beating Boston today Tuck...Philly is like 'Habs lite'. They just match up well against the bruins, and although the bruins won twice against them, one of those time the flyers were in a massive scheduling losing spot. My only hope for this game is that it doesnt go to OT and the loser grabs a point.

 

[Satyr]

The prices are even better now.

Montreal PL (2.30)
Anaheim PL (2.10)

 

[catfood]

The prices are even better now.

Montreal PL (2.30)
Anaheim PL (2.10)

I notice that happens to me a lot too, after I pull the trigger, the price gets better.

 

[Satyr]

Well this happened before so it's all good

 

[tuck321]

They are saying Ellis. Not seeing a day record for him but thought he had one and that it was bad. I am seeing an 11-6 road record for him. Osgood has a very small sample size in day games but may over the last few years have been poor. Both have done very well on Saturday. Team strength seems to point clearly to Detroit with a much better record and 5 straight wins to Nash 3-7 but Ellis seems a very dangerous goalie to lay real chalk against.
Theodore 1-2 in the day with 933 save percentage. 4-12 vs NJ but 912 save percentage. Simply impossible to find bad stats for Broduer but previous 3 years 19-17 in March with a very average save percentage and he has struggled in the West. Lean Colorado as looking at last 2 he seems to be slipping and NJ is developing some injuries to match Colorado.

 

[tuck321]

If you look at Oiler game logs they have bounced back consistently off these 3 goal losses. Their goal tending seems to be dirt currently. Ilya 1-2 vs Oilers. Nothing seems clear here but small lean to road dog.

 

[catfood]

Nashville has a good record this year off of 3 or more goal losses, and I always find afternoon games favour the visiting team. Nashville's season is basically on the line what with meeting Detroit twice again after this I believe.

 

[catfood]

Philly is a road favourite and so far this year are 5 out of 7 in this role.

 

[catfood]

Boston is 4 out of 10 as a home underdog.

 

[catfood]

Buffalo is a road favourite in Toronto tonight?