Sat/Sun/Monday discussion thread

Two early games against the grain have my thoughts!

Over in Cincy, day time in Cincy Many trends Joyce Over is 12-4-2 in last 18 in Cincy, Lynn is 6-2-1 in last 9 in Cincy....
 
The second game is Under in NYY, the TBJ are 21-6 in game one of DH, and these two are 7-1 Under in last 8.
 
I'm a fan of Miami today. Wash in tailspin, Miami 8-2 L10 and protecting their Ace at home. Leaning towards KC as well.
 
Tillman has been bad and although Balt has a great home record, much of that was from the first half of the season. They have not been nearly as good protecting home field since the break. KC still playing, barely, but should be motivated after an ass whooping.
 
I want to play Tillman but based on splits of different kinds that is very hard so regretfully passing that game despite seeing KC as an attempt at suicide.
 
fwiw - Closing line Favourites featured on NZ payTV are on 17-0/20-1/34-6 runs.

The ESPN Sunday Nighter between the O's/Royals seems to be the next cab off the rank to be seen Down Under. I say seems because it's currently bizarrely listed as a replay fixture...

View attachment 39453

Yet that listed start time - 12.00pm NZT - matches the actual game start time Stateside, so wtf the replay notion comes from, I don't know. I do know I've never seen a lengthier domination of Favs over 20-odd games in the nearly 15 years I've been tracking these results.
 
Liriano on 4 and in the day looks very good today as Pitt is now looking at a real shot at the division
 
NY YANKEES are 2-7 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games after allowing 10 runs or more this season.
 
Interesting game but have no clear opinion yet. Monday is as close as SF gets to a DEATH DAY,
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-21 (-15.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons
4-10 this season. 16-9 after 3 or more wins. Over may be the best bet.
 
This year Corrasco has been weak on 5. Last year it was 2.59 ERA. Cleveland has now won 9 in a row in first game of Series and KC is actually not going very well
 
Hellickson career on 6+ 2..67 8-7 record.
0-3 5.06 ERA this season. He and Shields both do badly against the other team
 
Kaz is currently 2-7 on 5days rest with a 2.92 ERA. He seems to have very little tolerance for umps with bad history.
 
From R Leith
[TABLE="class: forum"]
<tbody>[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: forumpost-post"]Play Against Clev with no rest & used 5+ pitchers previous
game.
0-14 SU / 1-13 RL / 8-6 o/u From 2011
Avg Score Clev 3.1 - 6.8


This Situation is 4-0 this season



[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: quoterow-left"][/TD]
[TD="class: quoterow"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Bottom line is this is confusing. A lot of smart people like the Rays who are 2-7 after a shutout. I am torn as I was thinking Cleveland now i am thinking over.
OLQUEZ is 2-2 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 9.31 and a WHIP of 2.378.
Walker in Seattle is 3-1 on 5 with a ERA of 4.77. Is this another over.
 
Sonny is better on 4 than 5 but he is playing on the Oakland 10-4 day. Danks is 10-3 at home after a home loss.
 
Shields is 7-2 on 4 with an ERA 3.42
At Arizona based on 17 innings an ERA of 7.94 over anyone?
 
SF with very little room for error. Every game is important at this point. Like the TTover 4.5.
 
Richards on 4 4.21 ERA away 4,71 ERA. 4 trips to Seattle 2 good 2 smashed. This is a good spot? I read trends that said it but I doubt it.
Lean Texas today unless Kaz gets a great ump.
 
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